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New Doomsday Poll: 99.9% Risk Of A Carsh, Black Swan Crisis Warning Now Through Mid-April

 
Saddletramp
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New Doomsday Poll: 99.9% Risk Of A Carsh, Black Swan Crisis Warning Now Through Mid-April
Seems I'm not the only one "Calling it"...

SNIP 50%

SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. (MarketWatch) — Global risks are accelerating. This is our fourth major poll update of industry leaders: A critical review of their warnings from early last year when we first predicted a 87% risk of a crash: Bernanke’s Fed saw an “unsustainable bubble” ... Gross: “credit supernova” ... Gundlach: “kaboom ahead” ... Ellis: “Don’t own bonds” ... Shilling: “shocker” ... Roubini: “Prepare for perfect storm” ... Shiller: “Irrational exuberance is back” ... Schiff: “Doubling down” on “doomsday” prediction ... InvestmentNews’ warning 90,000 advisers: “tick, tick ... boom!”

A few weeks later the crash risk was up to 98%. Then a dramatic preholiday uptick in investor sentiment. America’s collective unconscious tired of negativity after a Halloween headline: “Economic guillotine dead ahead.” A week later, 2014 became the “Year of the Boom.” Bank of America’s chief strategist screamed: “Bet on the bulls now.” The Great Gatsby spirit was celebrating the holidays: “Even old grumpy Dr. Doom, celeb economist Nouriel Roubini, began humming a happy tune all over television: “A global recovery is going to occur, get into equities.”

What really happened? Fed politics. Short-term, Larry Summers withdrew as a candidate for the Fed chairman’s job. Dark cloud lifted as Janet Yellen become the pick. Wall Street cheered, Bernanke’s easy-money printing presses would not screw up their year-end bonuses. Plus Main Street was mentally exhausted, tired of the bad news, relentless political drama. We needed a holiday break.

By Thanksgiving, “irrational exuberance” was accelerating in full holiday tilt: Headline: “Shiller’s hot P/Es will power a roaring bull till 2017,” and 2014 got branded the “Katy Perry market!” A week later, a Thanksgiving headline added: “10 reasons to be a bull in 2014.”

But long term? What’s really ahead for America in 2014? Warning, something bigger is hiding in the deep shadows of our collective brain. At a recent lunch with an old friend, one of the world’s more successful commodities traders, he confirmed that “something” was dead ahead. But not just another brief statistical shift in sentiment. Not a medium-term volatility shift. America, the world, are in a historic transition, a paradigm shift, a mysterious upheaval that few will grasp till it moves further along.

Dark road dead ahead: Yellen, Gross, GOP, off-center, all tested

More losses? How bad? Worse than 2000 and 2008? Yes. Wall Street, Main Street, Washington, the global economy, will all be knocked off-center. Traders are focusing on St. Patrick’s Day for guidance, below S&P 1,850, Dow 16,400, with a downturn accelerating after a macroeconomic news event in mid-April. For Wall Street’s short-term thinkers, all easy to dismiss, they make money on the action, up or down.

But this trader’s track-record says listen. His predictions fit our polls. The underlying reason is simple: Yellen’s policy is to keep printing cheap money. Remember last summer: Bernanke still in power? Wall Street feared Summers would hurt bonuses. Gross screamed, “QE must end.” Yet market kept rising. Pimco lost. Gross was off-center. His partner Mohamed El Erian left. Gross’s confusion was just one of many signs of a fundamentally flawed monetary policy dating back to Greenspan and Reaganomics

What’s ahead is even bigger: A black swan. Unpredictable. A macroeconomic catastrophe in China, Russia? Something politically dramatic, like the fall of the Berlin Wall? Oil wars? What do you see? Dismiss? Comment: Will 2014 continue the bull? Correction? Bear? The “big one” predicted for last year? Finally coming? Our poll resembles the one we reported on from 2004 to 2008, summarized shortly before the collapse.

To help you, here are highlights we reported over the last year. Read, comment, what do you see ahead? A critical mass of macroeconomic triggers that could accelerate a downturn, recession, something we’ll deny, never hear, till too late:

Gary Shilling: 42% decline in S&P ... and global recession

“With a global recession depressing corporate revenues, unsustainable profit margins and currency translation losses spawned by a robust dollar.” In early January Shilling saw “S&P 500 operating earnings ... a quarter below Wall Street consensus. Throw in a bear market P/E low of 10 and the S&P 500 Index drops to 800, a 42% decline.”

Bill Gross: Credit supernova dead ahead...


[link to www.marketwatch.com]

Last Edited by Saddletramp on 03/27/2014 11:07 AM
"And how can a man die better than facing fearful odds, for the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods..." ~ Horatius

"Because he told the truth, and once you've heard the truth, everything else is just cheap whiskey..."

"We don't rent pigs!"
Saddletramp  (OP)

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Re: New Doomsday Poll: 99.9% Risk Of A Carsh, Black Swan Crisis Warning Now Through Mid-April
Thread: The Grand Finale Pt. III: Janet Does Davos (latest update p. 195)
"And how can a man die better than facing fearful odds, for the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods..." ~ Horatius

"Because he told the truth, and once you've heard the truth, everything else is just cheap whiskey..."

"We don't rent pigs!"
Anonymous Coward
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03/27/2014 11:10 AM
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Re: New Doomsday Poll: 99.9% Risk Of A Carsh, Black Swan Crisis Warning Now Through Mid-April


how long do u speculate before we reach the 5th ring
Saddletramp  (OP)

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Re: New Doomsday Poll: 99.9% Risk Of A Carsh, Black Swan Crisis Warning Now Through Mid-April
Now I don't feel so alone...

cool2
"And how can a man die better than facing fearful odds, for the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods..." ~ Horatius

"Because he told the truth, and once you've heard the truth, everything else is just cheap whiskey..."

"We don't rent pigs!"
Anonymous Coward
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Re: New Doomsday Poll: 99.9% Risk Of A Carsh, Black Swan Crisis Warning Now Through Mid-April
Now I don't feel so alone...

cool2
 Quoting: Saddletramp


cool2
Saddletramp  (OP)

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Re: New Doomsday Poll: 99.9% Risk Of A Carsh, Black Swan Crisis Warning Now Through Mid-April


how long do u speculate before we reach the 5th ring
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 38452591


I think once Japan goes into full collapse we have a matter of months or even weeks...
"And how can a man die better than facing fearful odds, for the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods..." ~ Horatius

"Because he told the truth, and once you've heard the truth, everything else is just cheap whiskey..."

"We don't rent pigs!"
Anonymous Coward
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03/27/2014 11:13 AM
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Re: New Doomsday Poll: 99.9% Risk Of A Carsh, Black Swan Crisis Warning Now Through Mid-April


how long do u speculate before we reach the 5th ring
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 38452591


I think once Japan goes into full collapse we have a matter of months or even weeks...
 Quoting: Saddletramp


they seem to be moving pretty quickly through their little circus. thanks for your posts.
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03/27/2014 11:23 AM
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Re: New Doomsday Poll: 99.9% Risk Of A Carsh, Black Swan Crisis Warning Now Through Mid-April
how do you tell when a company is failing harder than a sarah jessica parker blowjob ?
why they put a woman in charge of it , yellen = doom
Saddletramp  (OP)

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Re: New Doomsday Poll: 99.9% Risk Of A Carsh, Black Swan Crisis Warning Now Through Mid-April
This is happening, and it's happening soon, if you're not already ready, it's time to go into overdrive getting ready.

Regulators begin giving "Guidance" on Basel III and Dodd-Frank's "Volcker Rule" beginning on April 1. The Volcker Rule works in conjunction to strengthen Basel III requirements and basically outlaws banks from trading certain commodities and derivatives on their own behalf.

Now they may try to figure out a way to get around this rule, but the indications are they have been preparing for this rule for over a year now, and they are ready to begin implementation. Now they have until the end of Q2 2015 to be in full compliance with Volcker, but no one wants to the the last man looking for a chair in a game of musical chairs!!!

He who sells first in a worsening market, sells best...

So from April 1, 2014 going forward look for WILD fluctuations in the markets, crazy swings and volatility, and finally look for one of the major banks to pull the plug and go all in in what we could term a "Fire Sale".

At that point, the ride ends, and everyone is asked to disembark with no refunds...

Last Edited by Saddletramp on 03/27/2014 11:34 AM
"And how can a man die better than facing fearful odds, for the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods..." ~ Horatius

"Because he told the truth, and once you've heard the truth, everything else is just cheap whiskey..."

"We don't rent pigs!"
Saddletramp  (OP)

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03/27/2014 11:33 AM
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Re: New Doomsday Poll: 99.9% Risk Of A Carsh, Black Swan Crisis Warning Now Through Mid-April
When was the last time you saw virtually all of the Hedge Fund Manager and Bank Trading Desk Managers agreeing on anything?!?!?

This time they did...99.9% Chance of a Carsh Dead Ahead...

Last Edited by Saddletramp on 03/27/2014 11:33 AM
"And how can a man die better than facing fearful odds, for the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods..." ~ Horatius

"Because he told the truth, and once you've heard the truth, everything else is just cheap whiskey..."

"We don't rent pigs!"
Possum777

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03/27/2014 11:34 AM
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Re: New Doomsday Poll: 99.9% Risk Of A Carsh, Black Swan Crisis Warning Now Through Mid-April
ST, do you think China (with the state controlled economy), will be able to keep events from becoming chaotic? As you previously said in your analysis, TPTB want a controlled demolition, which I agree.
Saddletramp  (OP)

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Re: New Doomsday Poll: 99.9% Risk Of A Carsh, Black Swan Crisis Warning Now Through Mid-April
ST, do you think China (with the state controlled economy), will be able to keep events from becoming chaotic? As you previously said in your analysis, TPTB want a controlled demolition, which I agree.
 Quoting: Possum777


2 Billion People, it's going to be hard...

Maybe THIS is why China has been building up its military, eh?!?!?

BUT, TPTB have spent the last 5 years preparing for this, passing laws and regulations that will aid transitional events like this, building up military and para-military police assets and equipment, building up supply stock-piles...

I have a strong feeling we're fixing to find out what all of that was for...

Last Edited by Saddletramp on 03/27/2014 11:37 AM
"And how can a man die better than facing fearful odds, for the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods..." ~ Horatius

"Because he told the truth, and once you've heard the truth, everything else is just cheap whiskey..."

"We don't rent pigs!"
Anonymous Coward
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Re: New Doomsday Poll: 99.9% Risk Of A Carsh, Black Swan Crisis Warning Now Through Mid-April
One star for misspelling 'crash'.
Saddletramp  (OP)

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Re: New Doomsday Poll: 99.9% Risk Of A Carsh, Black Swan Crisis Warning Now Through Mid-April
One star for misspelling 'crash'.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 56143440


Fuckin' newbies...

granny
"And how can a man die better than facing fearful odds, for the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods..." ~ Horatius

"Because he told the truth, and once you've heard the truth, everything else is just cheap whiskey..."

"We don't rent pigs!"
Anonymous Coward
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03/27/2014 11:40 AM
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Re: New Doomsday Poll: 99.9% Risk Of A Carsh, Black Swan Crisis Warning Now Through Mid-April
It will start with JPM, just watch. And yes I agree it is dead ahead. I would give it about a month or so at the max.
Windsage

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03/27/2014 11:44 AM
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Re: New Doomsday Poll: 99.9% Risk Of A Carsh, Black Swan Crisis Warning Now Through Mid-April
One star for misspelling 'crash'.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 56143440


Moran

whatever
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Re: New Doomsday Poll: 99.9% Risk Of A Carsh, Black Swan Crisis Warning Now Through Mid-April
One star for misspelling 'crash'.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 56143440


Fuckin' newbies...

granny
 Quoting: Saddletramp


cruise
Saddletramp  (OP)

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Re: New Doomsday Poll: 99.9% Risk Of A Carsh, Black Swan Crisis Warning Now Through Mid-April
It will start with JPM, just watch. And yes I agree it is dead ahead. I would give it about a month or so at the max.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 975341


Damn sure could, there's something weird going on over at JPM, they lost a lot more money than was reported in that London Whale incident, what collateral did they lose, and who's was it (re-hypothication).

Let's not forget the LIBOR litigation is going to have some major precedent setting rulings coming up here in April, this LIBOR litigation could cost the Banks literally TRILLIONS of dollars. Also this is money they stole from John Q. Public, through Mortgage Interest Rates, Bond Rates, and IR Derivative Rates.

Could be the head boys see the writing on the wall, they know the collapse is coming, and they don't want to be decorating lamp posts when it's over, so they're getting rid of anyone who can incriminate them.

Hence the rash of banker "suicides" of late...

Last Edited by Saddletramp on 03/27/2014 11:52 AM
"And how can a man die better than facing fearful odds, for the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods..." ~ Horatius

"Because he told the truth, and once you've heard the truth, everything else is just cheap whiskey..."

"We don't rent pigs!"
Elsabiades..

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03/27/2014 11:50 AM
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Re: New Doomsday Poll: 99.9% Risk Of A Carsh, Black Swan Crisis Warning Now Through Mid-April
I don't think one intelligent person would disagree. The present market has defied logic and common sense.
Elsabiades..
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Re: New Doomsday Poll: 99.9% Risk Of A Carsh, Black Swan Crisis Warning Now Through Mid-April
I think the main problem is that investors still think the fed "has their back" and will open up the monetary spigots, powering the indexes even higher.

But the mechanism of the banks is increasing leverage, in the past 10 years that meant lowering credit standards to create artificial demand. But consumers are tapped out, marginal credit quality might take on a little more credit but they are likely to default. Savers aren't taking on more debt, they are trying to deleverage in anticipation of more inflation from the insane cheap credit policies.

The problem is entrenched mal-invested debt, decades of it. It needs to be liquidated in bankruptcy since it is becoming like a black hole requiring exponentially increasing cheaper and cheaper credit to roll over past debt.

Diminishing returns and debt saturation are the nails in the coffin because the fed has 1 tool, increasing leverage. When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
Saddletramp  (OP)

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03/27/2014 11:54 AM
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Re: New Doomsday Poll: 99.9% Risk Of A Carsh, Black Swan Crisis Warning Now Through Mid-April
I think the main problem is that investors still think the fed "has their back" and will open up the monetary spigots, powering the indexes even higher.

But the mechanism of the banks is increasing leverage, in the past 10 years that meant lowering credit standards to create artificial demand. But consumers are tapped out, marginal credit quality might take on a little more credit but they are likely to default. Savers aren't taking on more debt, they are trying to deleverage in anticipation of more inflation from the insane cheap credit policies.

The problem is entrenched mal-invested debt, decades of it. It needs to be liquidated in bankruptcy since it is becoming like a black hole requiring exponentially increasing cheaper and cheaper credit to roll over past debt.

Diminishing returns and debt saturation are the nails in the coffin because the fed has 1 tool, increasing leverage. When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 56117320


Yeah all indications are with The Fed and China that they are not going to "stimulate" anymore. It's time to bite the bullet and let the bubbles deflate...

Liquidity crisis looming on the horizon as credit dries up EVERYWHERE!!!
"And how can a man die better than facing fearful odds, for the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods..." ~ Horatius

"Because he told the truth, and once you've heard the truth, everything else is just cheap whiskey..."

"We don't rent pigs!"
Anonymous Coward
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03/27/2014 11:54 AM
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Re: New Doomsday Poll: 99.9% Risk Of A Carsh, Black Swan Crisis Warning Now Through Mid-April
One star for misspelling 'crash'.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 56143440


Fuckin' newbies...

granny
 Quoting: Saddletramp


cruise
Revbo™

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03/27/2014 11:56 AM
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Re: New Doomsday Poll: 99.9% Risk Of A Carsh, Black Swan Crisis Warning Now Through Mid-April
One star for misspelling 'crash'.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 56143440


Fuckin' newbies...

granny
 Quoting: Saddletramp


chuckle

putin

Nice write up, as usual, ST.
John 8:32

And ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free.
No Dhimmi

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Re: New Doomsday Poll: 99.9% Risk Of A Carsh, Black Swan Crisis Warning Now Through Mid-April
bump
ALL relevant scriptures that include a time factor prove no pre-trib rapture. Over 50 verses! Kindle Edition only 99 CENTS! Biblical Eschatological “Time-Stamps” Relevant to the Last Day/Days (Amazon)
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Re: New Doomsday Poll: 99.9% Risk Of A Carsh, Black Swan Crisis Warning Now Through Mid-April
It will start with JPM, just watch. And yes I agree it is dead ahead. I would give it about a month or so at the max.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 975341


Damn sure could, there's something weird going on over at JPM, they lost a lot more money than was reported in that London Whale incident, what collateral did they lose, and who's was it (re-hypothication).

Let's not forget the LIBOR litigation is going to have some major precedent setting rulings coming up here in April, this LIBOR litigation could cost the Banks literally TRILLIONS of dollars. Also this is money they stole from John Q. Public, through Mortgage Interest Rates, Bond Rates, and IR Derivative Rates.

Could be the head boys see the writing on the wall, they know the collapse is coming, and they don't want to be decorating lamp posts when it's over, so they're getting rid of anyone who can incriminate them.

Hence the rash of banker "suicides" of late...
 Quoting: Saddletramp


It will be because of existing lawsuits against JPM that will be settled for massive amounts, at least this is what I believe. I have been following the lawsuits because I should have some money coming in from one of them. When JPM goes down the whole thing goes down. JPM=The Fed=The dollar. quite literally so. And the dollar is the underpinning of the world's financial system.

Pretty messy in the short term, but longer term it should be a much better world.
Saddletramp  (OP)

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Re: New Doomsday Poll: 99.9% Risk Of A Carsh, Black Swan Crisis Warning Now Through Mid-April
how do you tell when a company is failing harder than a sarah jessica parker blowjob ?
why they put a woman in charge of it , yellen = doom
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 56145270


jay
"And how can a man die better than facing fearful odds, for the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods..." ~ Horatius

"Because he told the truth, and once you've heard the truth, everything else is just cheap whiskey..."

"We don't rent pigs!"
Saddletramp  (OP)

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03/27/2014 12:08 PM
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Re: New Doomsday Poll: 99.9% Risk Of A Carsh, Black Swan Crisis Warning Now Through Mid-April
It will start with JPM, just watch. And yes I agree it is dead ahead. I would give it about a month or so at the max.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 975341


Damn sure could, there's something weird going on over at JPM, they lost a lot more money than was reported in that London Whale incident, what collateral did they lose, and who's was it (re-hypothication).

Let's not forget the LIBOR litigation is going to have some major precedent setting rulings coming up here in April, this LIBOR litigation could cost the Banks literally TRILLIONS of dollars. Also this is money they stole from John Q. Public, through Mortgage Interest Rates, Bond Rates, and IR Derivative Rates.

Could be the head boys see the writing on the wall, they know the collapse is coming, and they don't want to be decorating lamp posts when it's over, so they're getting rid of anyone who can incriminate them.

Hence the rash of banker "suicides" of late...
 Quoting: Saddletramp


It will be because of existing lawsuits against JPM that will be settled for massive amounts, at least this is what I believe. I have been following the lawsuits because I should have some money coming in from one of them. When JPM goes down the whole thing goes down. JPM=The Fed=The dollar. quite literally so. And the dollar is the underpinning of the world's financial system.

Pretty messy in the short term, but longer term it should be a much better world.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 975341


Maybe, but I think they're setting themselves up to be in control of EVERYTHING when it's over, not just the currency, but the assets as well...

That just means the uber rich getting more uber rich...

Here's what I see coming when the "Currency Reset" happens.

Thread: The Grand Finale Pt. I: Here Is What Is About To Happen To You...An Economic Love Story, or Fifty Shades of Green?
"And how can a man die better than facing fearful odds, for the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods..." ~ Horatius

"Because he told the truth, and once you've heard the truth, everything else is just cheap whiskey..."

"We don't rent pigs!"
Saddletramp  (OP)

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03/27/2014 12:11 PM
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Re: New Doomsday Poll: 99.9% Risk Of A Carsh, Black Swan Crisis Warning Now Through Mid-April
Does anyone ever wonder, like I do, Why there is still even a semblance of a Market, much less a bull market, when EVERYONE SEEMS TO KNOW THIS IS ALL BULLSHIT!!!

Anyone else curious about that?!?!?
"And how can a man die better than facing fearful odds, for the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods..." ~ Horatius

"Because he told the truth, and once you've heard the truth, everything else is just cheap whiskey..."

"We don't rent pigs!"
Saddletramp  (OP)

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03/27/2014 12:15 PM
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Re: New Doomsday Poll: 99.9% Risk Of A Carsh, Black Swan Crisis Warning Now Through Mid-April
Everything propped up by masturbating algorithms...

Last Edited by Saddletramp on 03/27/2014 12:15 PM
"And how can a man die better than facing fearful odds, for the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods..." ~ Horatius

"Because he told the truth, and once you've heard the truth, everything else is just cheap whiskey..."

"We don't rent pigs!"
Squidbillie Girl

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03/27/2014 12:15 PM
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Re: New Doomsday Poll: 99.9% Risk Of A Carsh, Black Swan Crisis Warning Now Through Mid-April
Great Post.. lovethispost
"The entire world is driven by a will, blind and ruthless, in order to transcend the limitations of that world, you need to stop willing, stop desiring, stop hating." Lao Ma
Saddletramp  (OP)

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03/27/2014 12:17 PM
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Re: New Doomsday Poll: 99.9% Risk Of A Carsh, Black Swan Crisis Warning Now Through Mid-April
Thanks for the pin guys...

hf
"And how can a man die better than facing fearful odds, for the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods..." ~ Horatius

"Because he told the truth, and once you've heard the truth, everything else is just cheap whiskey..."

"We don't rent pigs!"





GLP