I'm posting this here because I want a record of what I think, written out so I can find it, refer to it, and share it. It's incredibly long winded. If you have no interest do not read it. It's entirely too long.
Here's the entirety of the situation as I see it. And no, it doesn't make me a "Putin shill". Oh, and the United States is actually winning.
We have two active parties. The United States and Russia. Each country is going to do what it needs to do in its own interests. This doesn't make the United States or Russia right OR wrong. It is as it is and that's it. Step back and stop waving your flag or being a water carrier for either side and simply look at the situation.
The United States is quickly becoming a net exporter for natural gas. North Dakota is seriously BOOMING, both in production and economically. So much so that there are folks there making nearly $200,000 a year but living in their cars because there's not enough housing. And with all the fracking going on elsewhere in the USA we're cranking out the energy oil and gas. We need a buyer. If The United States cannot find a buyer for all this gas the value of it will tank due to supply and demand. The United States needs to create a new market and demand for its newfound surplus of energy. This new demand will come from Europe. The problem is it will take about 1-2 years to fully ramp up export methods to Europe and the other issue is, well, Russia. Russia has essentially one access point to it's exportation of it's oil and gas to Europe, Ukraine. Almost all of Russian energy exports to Europe flow through Ukraine. For the United States to create a new demand for it's newfound surplus and customers it has to create a need. Europe will not NEED to buy US oil and gas as long as they can buy it from Russia. Russia also wants to drop the US Dollar as the global reserve currency, along with several of it's allies, namely China. It is in the best interest of the United States to not allow this to happen.
Russia. It is in the best interest of Russia to continue to sell it's oil and gas to Europe. This is Russia's cash cow and is vitally important to it's economic health. Russia is sort of set up like the United States is, economically. What I mean is Russia and the United States are not these huge manufacturing powerhouses. The United States lost that, Russia essentially never had it. In any event China has become the manufacturing center for the world. Russia and the United States are producers and exporters of raw materials now and if not they are attempting to secure those raw material production centers through influence. China is doing the same. Russia produces a lot of oil and gas and needs customers to continue it's export. The problem is they've worked themselves into a corner by having almost all of it's energy exports to Europe transit one country, Ukraine. It's a bottleneck. There are efforts to create alternative routes of those energy exports, namely the South Stream Pipeline and the pipeline through Syria from Russian allies.
So what's really going on? It is in the best interests of the United States to create new markets for it's exports, it is in the best interest of Russia to maintain the status quo of it's exports. How can the United States gain a new market for it's exports? Simply, do what they've always done, destabilize a region or country. Here's how it works. Using Ukraine as an example the United States needs Europe to become a purchaser of it's newfound energy exports to maintain the value of those resources through the supply and demand model of global economics. Russia has Europe locked up with it's exports. The United States needs to disrupt the Russian supply and make Europe needy for oil and gas. The United States then supports, financially, "democracy" in Ukraine, supports groups that would destabilize Ukraine and disrupt Russian transit gas. This is / was actually very easy as the United States has decades of experience doing this type of thing. The plus side for the United States is that it doesn't matter what groups it supports for the destabilization, the USA only needs one of two outcomes for the plan to work. 1. A new government / regime that is pro USA. 2. Complete chaos and destabilization. Either one of those results is a win for the United States.
By fomenting destabilization in Ukraine the USA is hoping for a "pro west" government to be formed. This is reinforced thorough military support, political support, bribes, loans, and promises of all kinds of other support. By having a "pro west" government in Ukraine this drastically threatens Russian influence and ability to export it's resources to Europe. If this doesn't work the USA can move into plan B, total chaos. If the United States cannot succeed in getting a "pro west" government in Ukraine to disrupt Russian exports it can simply create a situation, or at least support a situation, where Ukraine becomes non-viable as a State safe enough for the transit of Russian exports. And remember, Russia cornered itself by allowing the status quo of having Ukraine as it's only entry point into Europe. Ukraine, in this situation, is the pawn the United States is using to create a market in Europe for its energy exports. And just like everywhere else the United States operates they have two options, help the USA or be in chaos.
The US has played a well played game thus far. The United States has created or supported a situation in Ukraine where Russia loses, almost across the board. In Russia there is now a situation where the economy will suffer because of it's inability to sale it's main export. Also there will be tension in Russia, politically. Initially Putin has a high level of national support, his numbers have surged, but that cannot last. Putin is faced with two problems, both are bad, especially for him. The United States has created a situation where Putin has two options, 1. War, 2. political defeat.
Putin is a political powerhouse, both on the world stage and internally at home. With the United States helping throw Syria into chaos by supporting those that would do it, Putin came in and showed up the USA over the chemical weapons attacks. At that point Putin looked to be a great and patient world leader. This cannot happen, the US cannot afford to have a leader as influential as Putin on the world's stage. Especially a leader that supports dropping the US Dollar as the global reserve currency. In the interests of the United States, it's people, and it's economy, individuals like Putin must have their influence diminished. The United States has successfully done this to Putin in Ukraine. Putin's options are few. He now has only two choices, stand up and enforce Russian interests for it's people and economy by going to war and legitimately invading Ukraine.
An aside. Many people will suggest that Putin has already invaded Ukraine. This is simply not the case. What he has done is supported either directly or indirectly separatist fighters in Crimea and Ukraine proper. Sure he's supported a flow of unofficial fighters, weapons, funds, and equipment but he has not "invaded". What Putin HAS done is exactly what the US does to destabilize whatever country the USA needs destabilized for whatever reason. For example the Mujahideen in Afghanistan, we created, supported, gave money, trained, and armed as a "resistance" group to fight against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan from 1979-1989. The United States "supported" "democracy" in Ukraine in 2013-2014. The United States trains, supports, gives money and arms to "rebel" fighters in Syria. So Putin tossing some guns and money across the border to aid Pro Russian separatists in Ukraine does not make it an "invasion".
So back to Putin's options in Ukraine. He has two. He can fully invade Ukraine and fight for Russian political, economic, and national interests. This is a bad idea. The US led West has already painted him as some crazy instigator of evil. The US has created a situation where Putin doing what's right for Russia is wrong for the rest of the world. If he invades he had better be prepared for world war against him. Putin is no dummy and he know this, hence his reluctance to actually invade with columns of tanks and air strikes everywhere. The other option is to let Ukraine go and sale his oil and gas to other markets, namely China. Russia has done this, though the energy deal with China is not nearly as beneficial to Russia as the deals in Europe, but it does slow the economic bleeding. This isn't the real problem. The real issue Putin faces is at home. Because of the lost revenues to Europe it's going to cause slow and grinding economic hardships in Russia that most of the population will feel, eventually. When the lower classes start to feel the pinch they will quickly pay attention to the people the economic hardships aren't really affecting. This will cause political instability in Russia. Also, Russians are a proud people, they've endured a lot of hardship over the past 150 years, everything from Napoleon to Hitler to Stalin to the fall of their homeland to revolution TWICE. Yet Russia still exists as a State. They should be proud of what they've endured. And through this national pride a problem for Putin arises. Though his support is strong right now if he doesn't act on the Ukraine situation the people of Russia will view Putin as failing to do what needs to be done in the interest of Russia, its economy, and its people. He will be seen as failing Russia.
So the United States has really set the stage for Russia and it's pretty much in the bag, except for a couple of wild cards. The USA has created the situation where Putin has been labeled a danger to the world and an aggressor by doing what the United States does elsewhere in the world for it's own interests. So Putin can actually invade Ukraine and support, actively, Russian interests and "stand up" to the United States' tomfoolery and risk losing everything in all out war with Europe or he can do nothing and continue to support pro Russian separatists and slowly watch his domestic support and situation deteriorate until he's out of power. Either scenario is lose lose for Putin as a man.
What are the Wild Cards? The first wild card situation I can think of is if Russia actually does invade Ukraine. If this happens the US does win politically and get's the real proof to show the world that Putin is a crazed aggressor. It would also be a real big mess with lots of death and destruction. The EU / NATO / and the US would be forced to act, they'd have to respond. But the thing is, even with an invasion of Ukraine Putin would be once and for all eliminating Russia's ability to ever sell another ounce of gas and oil to Europe. Invading Ukraine would push Europe into US exports definitively and solidly. Sure Russia might be able to hold the East of Ukraine, it may even be able to control all of Ukraine, but it would forever keep Europe from buying it's oil and gas no matter how much of Ukraine Russia took. Territorial gains would not equal long term economic wins. But, nonetheless, Putin and Russia could very well invade. And if they do, it's going to be a mess. The second wild card I can actually see if the United States getting blasted, unsuspectedly. The only way I can see Russia "winning" this whole situation is really bad. There is only one way for Russia to win and that's with the total elimination of the United States. If Russia could eliminate the United States' influence in everything Russia has legitimate interests in for political, national, and economic then Russia would be able to do what it needs to do for its own interests. The only problem with that is there is really only one way to make sure the US is not able to influence those interests. Nuclear war. And in that situation everyone loses. And because of that, the United States wins. So Russia is faced with, really, three options. 1. Politically and economically lose Europe. 2. Politically and economically lose internally. 3. Try to win by making everyone lose.
So in the end, at this point, depending on the desperation of Putin, I would not rule out a sneak nuclear attack on the United States by Russia. If they could actually pull it off and if the USA doesn't have the guts, fortitude, or wherewithal to retaliate then Russia wins everything. But if the US does retaliate, game over for Russia. And that's the rub, it's a HUGE risk.
Will that risk be one worth trying? Is Putin enough of a megalomaniac to not want to lose face and power in Russia? Will Putin see the only way to reclaim export dominance of Europe is to eliminate the United States?
I really don't see any other option here but it's all in Putin's hands. Putin can invade Ukraine which would lead to a conventional war in which the United States would fight from a distance (cruise missiles) and stand off munitions from aircraft. And without some stroke of massive luck Russia would be handily defeated. This defeat even raises the nuclear option. If the West and Russia get into a hot war, directly, the losing forces will almost have to use nuclear weapons of some kind, either massive or tactical to regain the military advantage. And by doing that, well, that's all downhill.
Is Putin man enough to accept defeat and find new and different ways to be a part of the global community? Can he find a way to save himself internally? Only time will tell.
The United States has squarely pushed Russia into a corner, rightly or wrongly depending on your view. How will Russia respond. That response can, and most likely will, be dangerous and scary for everyone. The response to the response could easily be scarier.
Now about the "Putintards" "Russian Shills" "Russian Propaganda" that everyone on here seems to think is going on. First of all, yes, there's plenty of Russian propaganda, both official and non-official. Everyone that cries and complains about all the "Russian Shill paid propaganda" are pretty much idiots with their head in the sand. The United States does the same exact thing. In fact every country worth their salt should probably have something in place to convince their population, and attempt to influence other populations, that what they are doing is the right thing. It would be the responsible thing to do as a country, to serve its interests. Both sides are represented, some are better at it than others. Some you cannot tell it's happening and some you can easily spot. The key is it's happening on both sides. It's very easy to overlook it when it's coming from a perspective you happen to agree with. And just because there's Russian "propaganda" or "shills" doesn't mean they're right or wrong. They just are. Once you can see both sides and recognize viewpoints are learned and taught through cultural experience and location you can begin to really understand the nuances of what's going on. If you grew up, went to school, work, and live in the United States and see someone from Russia that had the same cultural experiences there post something in support of Russia, this does not make them any more a "shill" than you are for the "Pro West" point of view. It simply IS. There's no wrong or right about it. It's cultural differences and one side thinks of the other as the enemy, or propagandist, or shill or whatever. By calling someone out as a shill or propagandist you are simply living up to the expectations that YOUR government want you to have. You are doing very well and behaving. I call this type of person a Shitizen. Calling out one side over the other only furthers evidence you are as indoctrinated as the other side.
It's only when you can step back and realize that the potato farmer in Russia is simply doing his thing, just like you are. It's the governments that are doing the things that make us hate each other and shilling on a shill doesn't bring unity, it brings resentment and hatred.
In the end I support the people. It doesn't matter who it is. If I see someone fall down and get hurt, I will help them. At that point I don't care about personality, nationality, ethnicity, or religion, it's about my fellow man. This is the real battlefield. We are the combatants. We have the power but we're taught to need governments, activist groups, NGOs, and militaries. If the people of the world truly rose up and helped each other the governments would be running scared. Unfortunately to get to that level of existence I fear we're going to have to destroy the current paradigm. And that destruction is going to be severe and massive.
Good luck and best wishes.
Last Edited by The Årtist on 06/18/2014 09:48 AMRAGE
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