TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR OFFICIALLY NAMED/UPGRADED 7/1/14 11:00AM

Path?

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect along the Central East Coast of Florida as we speak... along with the coastal waters just off the coast of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina...

Intensification is likely to Category 1 Hurricane within 48 hours... max winds forecast to 80mph...

Track of storm looks to hug along Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina... before making a turn northeast....

Either way, certain areas of NC, VA, DE are likely to have a windy/wet July 4th

WTNT41 KNHC 011502
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014

Radar and satellite imagery indicate that the convective
organization of the cyclone has improved since the previous
advisory, and the cyclone is being upgraded based on a sustained
wind report of 33 kt from Settlement Point (SPGF1) on Grand Bahama
Island earlier this morning that was outside of the deep convection.

After remaining nearly stationary earlier this morning, Arthur
appears to to be drifting northwestward now with an uncertain motion
of 315/02 kt. Otherwise, there is no significant change to the
previous forecast track. The latest model guidance has continued the
trend of a pronounced mid-tropospheric trough digging southeastward
from the upper-midwest into the northeastern and mid-Atlantic region
of the United States by 72 hours. The 500 mb flow pattern is almost
identical in the GFS and ECMWF models, which increases the
confidence in this evolving pattern. As a result, a steady increase
in southwesterly steering flow over the southeastern United States
is expected to gradually turn the tropical cyclone northward over
the next 24-36 hours, and then accelerate the system faster toward
the northeast on Thursday and Friday. By Days 4 and 5, Arthur is
forecast to move over the far north Atlantic as an extratropical
cyclone. The NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous
advisory track, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed
guidance envelope close to the consensus model TVCA.

Northwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast by the models to
gradually subside over the next 48 hours, which should allow the
cyclone to develop its own upper-level outflow pattern. In fact,
latest visible and water vapor imagery indicates that cirrus
outflow has been expanding on the north side of the system during
the past few hours, suggesting that the shear conditions could
already be subsiding. The low shear conditions and warm
sea-surface temperatures should allow for at least steady
strengthening, and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane by
72 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the
latest intensity model consensus IVCN through 36 hours, and then
slightly higher after that.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 27.6N 79.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 27.8N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 28.7N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 29.8N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 31.2N 78.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 35.4N 75.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 40.8N 67.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 45.5N 59.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Thanks for the timely update!

Ah, the military is creating another hurricane - proof here:
[link to www.wired.com]

Don't doubt it at all... check the radar from Moody, AFB (Georgia) on 6/30/14. Looks like it is zapping atmosphere to make sure Tropical Storm Arthur actually kicked off!!!

[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

YW!! :)

[link to youtu.be] (regular link)

Ok thanks

I remember Hurricane Andrew and Hugo.

Some people are desperate for -- any -- news about the weather.

LOL

OMG! It's a tropical storm!

I don't think I've ever seen one form off the coast of SC and move south to FL and back to NC before.

Could make the 4th a little wet and windy here in northern SC. We could use the rain. It won't be strong enough for us to have to evacuate. So I'm good with it.

Prepare for the Plywood Panic!!

Pffft...that's not a storm!

The exception being, it went from a non-organized cluster of low pressure, to a topical depression, to Tropical Storm Arthur all within 24 hours... and is on track to become Hurricane Arthur in the next 48 hours (don't mind the official notices... it will be 48 hours... not 96 like you may see)....

This will have serious impacts to the NC/VA/DELMARVA region... ask me how i know...

It's tracking out of the gate.... is a bit ODD.... west... then south... then north... then northeast... if people don't get that... well... it's not a "natural" track...

on the Delmarva Peninsula here - how do you know?

:ohlook:

So, they're zapping it (HAARP Triggering the storm) from Valdosta, Georgia and Morehead City, NC.

Fascinating. Wonder what they're up to...

I'm going to Portland Maine for July 4th holiday. Hurricane doom awaits me! Cool!

OP You Know this is DorBerts responsibility for notifying us Morans of impending hurricane doom?

Thx OP!!

Yeah.... sorry bout that lol

Looks like a major Atlantic Hurricane will begin forming (70% chance) in 5 days. Ck. this out: [link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

It's there @ (Atlantic Graphical Two area 4 closeup)

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

Sorry about the bad links. I give up

Chances are good that within 48-72 hours we will see a decent Category 1 Hurricane...

I was talking about the New One Developing off Africa

You can see the central circulation just beginning in this rainbow loop: [link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]