Bush Faces Major Choice Amid Israeli Escalation

Why shit, the decision was made long ago..

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The two statements appeared to highlight the choice now faced by the administration – whether to treat the current crisis as something that can be resolved through quiet diplomacy and mediation involving primarily local actors, including Israel, the Palestinians, and Hezbollah, with help from Damascus, or as part of a larger regional confrontation between the U.S. and Israel, on the one hand, and Syria, Iran, and various non-state actors on the other, in which case a wider regional conflict was more likely. Hudson, who stressed that Syria's and Iran's role, if any, in encouraging Hezbollah to attack was "entirely speculative," said Damascus and Tehran "may have calculated that, with the Israelis now engaged in a two-front war, and with the Americans bogged down in Iraq, neither is prepared for any major military adventures."

He also suggested that Tehran, if it did give Hezbollah a green light for such an attack, may be trying to demonstrate its "strategic reach" – how much difficulty for Israel and the U.S. it can create – at a moment when Washington is trying to rally Europe, Russia, and China behind the UN Security Council if it fails to accept a U.S.-backed plan that would freeze its nuclear program.

"If Washington wants to go down that path, then it will use this as a pretext to hit Iran in order to contain it and nip its regional ambitions in the bud," said Saloukh. If, on the other hand, Washington "interprets this as an instrumental strategy by Hezbollah to free Lebanese and Arab prisoners in Israeli jails, then there's room for negotiation."