Surely Ebola is more contagious than 1.9?

and thanks phillk6751 !

Double post

Last Edited by artMan on 08/20/2014 04:13 PM

Obviously since I wasn't happy with the calculated ROI I decided to graph out the ROI line-by-line. I produced a graph and an Average (based on the assumption that a month has 30.5 days)...

Here's a link to the album with screenshots:
[link to imgur.com]

ROI Average: 2.08

ROI Calculations per line item uses formula:

(Number of new cases since last record / Days between records)
Multiply 30.5 to get cases/month at current rate
Add previous data total cases
Then divide by previous data total cases to get the monthly infection rate.

Basically:
([(#New / DateDiff) * 30.5] + [Last Rec Total]) / [Last Rec Total]

Thanks Phil for your calculations.

Agreed that it is still too early to get a good handle on the RO, but with that said it is definitely high enough to create an Major Epidemic in the areas where it is currently concentrated.

The REAL question going forward is how well that Epidemic can be contained to those areas, particularly if it starts to really run.

"IF" it can be virtually 100% contained to the three countries that currently have it embedded into their population then the disease will eventually burn itself out ... this is why everybody is jumping onto ANY potential cases that come out of those three countries.

It would help the containment effort IF air travel was mostly cut off AND most road travel was also cut off into and out of the affected countries. Some trade would have to continue since the local population NEEDS FOOD and basic supplies, but limited trade via ocean freighters could serve that function (with freighter crews mostly kept isolated from the local populous when they are in port).

We really won't know the answer to this problem for another 60 days UNLESS before then the disease runs the current blockade and gets a strong foothold elsewhere (ie: Lagos Nigeria is everybody's nightmare).

Yeah, unfortunately from looking at the official numbers and graphing them, something just plain doesn't seem right. The fact that the rate of infection doesn't seem to match whatsoever between the 3 major areas infected (Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone) and to a lesser degree Nigeria...something seems off.

The cases vs deaths follow inverse patterns between Guinea and Liberia. (And Sierra Leone is a bit different too) This might indicate a genetic factor...whether it's the viral genetics or the human genetics we may never know....If I were to guess, I'd say we're dealing with 2-3 different strains of Ebola between those 3 countries.

You should all get STEM from eclipse

[link to www.eclipse.org]

and use that. It is a good modelling tool. The ROI is unknown as its africa and they have shit for information handling. Def over 2.

The fatality rate is also not 55%, it is 88% > Thread: Actual DEATH rate from CONFIRMED EBOLA ~88% - 1350 Dead now

Its AVERAGE...

Meaning some people infect none others, whilst others infect more than 2 - it averages out that the infection rate is around 1.9.

And it varies during outbreaks. Month one of an outbreak could be as high as 5 infected from one patient, then following months is less than one to balance out with the over all infection rate over time being 1.9.

Averages and Exponential, two simple maths that humans find difficult to grasp. Its not their fault, its how the brain is wired to deal with other things.

Status right now:

Guinea 579 cases396 deaths
Sierra Leone 907 cases374 deaths
Liberia 972 cases576 deaths
Nigeria 15 cases4 deaths

Sounds about right to me.

Get ready for a shocker! Read this:

Brady and two of his colleagues pooled available data to estimate how many doses would be required to fight the epidemic, identifying key risk groups that require help and looking at probable levels of exposure. They found "up to 30,000 people so far would have required experimental drugs and vaccines" in the current outbreak.
[link to www.cnn.com]

That's over ten times the reported number by WHO and that "SO FAR", increasingly probably hourly.

Time to get the spread sheet out and redo the estimates.

in nigeria there are 20 cases of ebola
from one patient/Patrick Sawyer
this is within one month of his death in lagos

the newest article from allafrica.com
states that the woman doctor who just died in lagos
is a hero because she personally prevented
patrick sawyer from escaping from the hospital
he was planning to go on the run
knowing he had ebola

5 deaths Nigeria

5th is a doctor they SAID WAS RECOVERED

[link to theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com]

But vaccines kill anyway - if not be ebola - then by cancer.

Did you see what I wrote:

The number given in the article is over ten times the reported number by WHO and that "SO FAR", increasingly probably hourly.