Volcanic Iceland: Earthquake with magnitude M 5,2 in Þorbjörn mountain (Fagradalsfjall mountain)!!!p1492

It's the rifting event that will go on for years. Prolly long after Miss Barda gets...um, goes off.

Makes great sense Misfit. We all know that this event can go on for a very long time as a fissure event which would be horrific in terms of the amount of toxic gases released into the atmosphere. Once again here is the link that Luis posted earlier. Please read..it is a very short article and is quite staggering concering a Caldera explosion. Let me know your thoughts. Once again, an explosion from the main Caldera at Bard has never happened before and we are exploring the possiblilty that it may or can happen this time.

[link to www.dailypaul.com]

Rushed evacuations as Philippine volcano spews lava

[link to www.hurriyetdailynews.com]

My admittedly inexpert opinion is that JonFr's assessment about a 45 meter decline in the caldera could be the tipping point for Barda.

The amount of, for lack of a better term 'bouncing' taking place on the gps readings suggests a 'tug of war' between the pressure of the magma upwelling and the pressure downward of the mass of the glacier. At some point even the most elastic of substances, subject to repeated stressing, will "harden" and become more susceptible to fracturing.

Take a coat hanger or any piece of wire that's somewhat ductile and bend it back and forth, back and forth. In a short period of time the point where the bending is taking place will undergo a change in grain structure, get brittle, and snap. Given that ice is a solid it has grain structure, and while not metallic, will likely experience the same failure.

Soooo, I watch the graph of the GPS as it creeps lower and lower. And whether it yields at 1885 meters, or 1875 meters, it's more a matter of 'when' to my eye than 'if'.

Again, just an inexpert viewpoint.

Nothing in that article gives me any comfort.

"The magma, suddenly no longer contained by the crater floor and 1 trillion gallons of water will act like a shaken soft drink can when the top is popped.

Freakin' yikes!

Add to that the constant, dramatic temperature changes and the scales are tipped even further.

^I concur

Interesting analysis and I am thinking along similar lines. Bottom line, how much subsidence can caldera take?

[link to weerstationlangerak.nl]

It's heading down again.

Funny that it continued steady after the 5.2 but the 3.2 started it heading down again. Love the quakes at the bottom to match the GPS.

Everyone is providing very intelligent responses. A caldera eruption is something we all do not want. Did everyone read the short article Luis placed on the thread earlier today? It spells out very clearly in a very short article what will happen if the main Caldera explodes. MISFIT has chimed in and yes my friend it is mind boggling for sure!

[link to www.dailypaul.com]

Hello everyone

I was reading a great webside (eldgos.is) with excellent summaries and explanations. Unfortunately it's all in Icelandic so I decided to translate a bit for you..here goes..

Possible scenarios

1.
Caldera subsidence in Bárðarbunga stops before it becomes large and eruption in Holuhraun stops. This is still a possibility but perhaps not likely. When caldera subsidence is taking place it is more likely that it will continue until a significant amount of magma has, in one way or another escaped the volcano. The best scenario is that the eruption will fade out, eruption simmers for weeks and be completed slowly.

image
[link to eldgos.is]

2
Large caldera subsidence in Bárðarbunga. Eruption of Holuhraun is long and growing. Possible lengthening of the fissure to the south under Dyngjujökul causing floods and ash fall. It is also possible that fissures open elsewhere under the glacier.

This scenario is perhaps what is most likely based on the situation as it is. We have three indicators pointing to this scenario, 1: caldera subsidence, 2: rifting event and 3: enormous amount of magma on the move. There have already been minor eruptions under the glacier that didn´t manage to melt through the ice and two minor eruptions at Holuhraun in addition to that what is now in progress. This is a scenario that could cover several years with several eruptions. They could happen in a similar location as the current eruption , furthermore in Dyngjujökull.

What must not be excluded is that a fissure opens up to the southwest and into the Veiðivötn fissure swarm as was the case in 870 and 1480. In such a scenario there is a risk that a very long Fissure would open, even over 30 miles to the southwest. This is as we have said before, the most dangerous area in terms of eruption in Bárðarbunga. Even a major eruption in the caldera itself is a bit nicer.

image
[link to eldgos.is]

3
Large caldera subsidence in Bárðarbunga and an eruption in the cracked caldera . Such a large eruption could melt ice and cause significant glacier floods. Volcanic ash could be vast.
Scientists have been speak about a possible eruption in the caldera lately. However, there are not many confirmed examples of eruptions Bárðarbunga ‘s caldera and uncertain that it has erupted for a very long time. It is actually also uncertain when was the last time there was caldera subsidence in Bárðarbunga, it could be thousands of years. This is perhaps not the most likely scenario but should there be an eruption in the caldera it is more likely than not that it will be big because magma has found a relatively direct route to the surface out of the magma chamber. It will however hardly be a long lasting eruption since subglacial eruptions seldom are. High risk of glacier floods, even a catastrophic flood similar to those who created Jökusárgljúfur and Ásbyrgi.

image
[link to eldgos.is]

Take special note to scenario 2 since this is the vibe that I'm starting to get off the scientists here in Iceland.
The change in rifting movement and magma flow to the NW is a possible indicator that a fissure towards the SW might start to open up soon..

What is up with all the drumplots?

Not updating for over an hour..

[link to hraun.vedur.is]

Thank you. But it isn't on the GPS page and I didn't find it on the emsc.

???

It is in the wee hours of the morning in Iceland. Looks like someone is not attending to the seismogram!

You will find it here:

[link to www.volcanodiscovery.com]

Great post. Scenario number 2 is a nightmare because of the longevity of the event. While it says a main Caldera explosion would be preferable...I would say that it is 6 or 1/2 dozen...pick your poison so to speak. I do not know if there is a best case scenario, what I do know is that cessation of activities at BARD is what we must all hope for.

Thank you my friend. This kitty is all we need for sure...just look at my Avatar! ROARRRR! lol!

Although drumplots, cameras etc are down, here is a display from the Iceland MET office which will keep us all updated as to all the quakes that are occuring. Notice up on top the air pollution warnings. This is the number one concern right now and was the most destructive aspect of the Laki 1783 event.

[link to en.vedur.is]

Thank you but that was NOT my point here. I don't want to find the earthquake on one website when I don't see it listed on any official page.

But this is an old discussion here on GLP where EQs are listed and where not. Hard to explain.

Now we look at Mrs. Barda's jojogame with or without EQs.

I understand...believe me I do. It's very frustrating and no one seems to be able to provide an explanation as to why this is.

is it known why they went down? did the fog mess up the cameras? or something else?

been surfing through the last few pages, but don't see an answer.

thanks in advance.

Not sure have not heard anyting either. Very strange. Hopefully problem is fixed soon.

Good evening Music Man and friends. I was the "b" word, but not for long, I upgraded my acct so I could stay on here. lol. Can we say obsessed? Anyway, I wish I had something I could add to the knowledge bank, but unfortunately I don't. I read the article on Ms.Barda's
caldera. Scary, scary stuff. I too wish we had our cams
back. Thanks again for all of the important info you are
putting out there.

Good Evening my Friend. The article sure was scary. Let's hope cams will come on soon!!

well the cams and drumplots may be down, but I still have access to the one station that I've been using to notify you guys of "incoming quake," with estimates. So anything bigger happens, I'll be up for a while and post.

So is it confirmed that all lava flow activity in the fissure just flat out ceased? Or what.

I haven't heard if fissure is still going or not. We would need a fly over to let us know with cams being down. Weather has been atrocious up there from what I heard. I may be wrong but I think fissure is still going on but at a slower rate. I read yesterday that it is going to open up in another area and events will continue.

thank you.

anyone else feel 'refresh' withdrawl?

[link to brunnur.vedur.is]
is updating... and there was a 4+ ?

I believe that is a 0.4. Cameras down, seismograms down etc. etc. This will tell us who the hard core BARDORIANS are!!