Volcanic Iceland: Earthquake with magnitude M 5,2 in Þorbjörn mountain (Fagradalsfjall mountain)!!!p1492

There is a puff of cloud that keeps appearing that looks out of place, it then clears and another forms.

Top centre of pic.

that's the heat of the lava below, boiling water off, forming a cloud, and it just repeats over and over. can be quite hypnotic to watch. there's a word for those clouds but cant think of it now

well, in THAT case, if you're right, we're in big trouble, because that graphic would indicate over a KM of the plug has already melted, wouldn't it?

I don't think they'd say the plug was 2 km thick if it wasn't, originally.

if what you say is true, when the rest of the floor melts, the ice meets the magma, and it's goodnight.

given the extremely high temps of the magma, maybe you're right.

[link to hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu]

ApproximateTemperature (°C) Minerals which are molten
1200

All molten

1000

Olivine, pyroxene, Ca-rich plagioclase
800

Amphibole, Ca/Na- plagioclase
600

Quartz, K-feldspar, Na-plagioclase, micas.

have those shallow quakes been the caldera plug slowly melting, a bit like the pops and bubbles of a boiling pan of water?

Pyrocumulus

Ooh, ok thanks!

Didn't realise that happens!

the word for the clouds was posted just above yer reply by CA.

I am sure there are equations that could give an estimated melt through rate, but I don't have any at hand.

Perhaps we can make a couple of assumptions:

1. The material in the "cork" is an old magma intrusion and therefore most likely has the same composition and melting point as the current molten magma.

2. Since magma seems to be flowing from the area of the caldera to the open fissure, there is a constant transportation of energy across the lower section of the "cork" meaning the cork itself is never allowed to cool at the bottom increasing the chances of a melt through at some point.

I think I also saw a comment from the geologist that the eruption is drawing on deep mantle magma, so there is no energy exhaustion issue – it has all the heat it needs to draw on.

3. The "cork" being an old intrusion creates a fracture zone along its perimeter that could allow new magma to easier open a conduit to the surface.

The same fracture zone could also allow the entire cork to become unset because of the combined action of quakes, heat and the weight of the overlying water/ice column, effectively making it float on the magma. I recon it must be relatively thin for this to happen though.

Thanks.

the other thing of course, is IF that 2km thick plug is melting, the volume of the plug adds to the volume of melted rock already in the chamber, which is about 235 km3

2 x 80 km2 = 160 km3 + 235 km3 = about 400km3

how much of that would be ejected by a 800 metre glacier interacting with it?

is it even POSSIBLE for that much rock to be melted anyway?

i'm not too sure about this theory, but if it is happening, we're boned.

any links of anyone else speculating about this?

another big drop...

Quakes to come...

AC...398, wasn't that scenario C (third graphic)?

i think that maybe it was swamp gas

Let's party...

My interpretation of the shallower and shallower quakes in Barda is we have seen a gradual melty through, but right now it has reached some kind of equilibrium (more or less) where the heat transport to the top maybe is not optimal combined with the weight of the ice/water column from the top. So we will see a slower progress, however one that will result in a melt through as long as the fissure keeps drawing on the same magma pool and is active.

Yes, I mentioned this a couple of days ago: maybe they are no EQ's as such, but the tremors from melting/collapsing of the caldera (-cork)

Large scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an
eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading
to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ashfall.

that scenario? doesn't mention the caldera floor melting. maybe that comes under 'other scenarios can't be excluded' though?

whichever way you look at this situation, it ISN'T good. I can't possibly see how we're going to get away without a huge disaster playing out here, whether in slow motion, or very suddenly.

For the above to happen, there would necessarily have to be a melt through of some sort. We don't need the whole floor to go just a sufficient conduit to open to get the reaction started.

agree

gravity and physics.

what a pair of bastards!

Huge drop now

[link to hraun.vedur.is]

we're in a lot of trouble

And von...up up up

[link to hraun.vedur.is]

Big eq!

Daily 5 incoming!

Last Edited by FIS on 09/21/2014 05:43 AM

maybe a high M4...or M5.

potential mid range vei7 eruption imminent imho.

the fact Iceland 'doesn't do' vei7s is irrelevant

all the pieces are in place for a massive disaster, and we are told NOTHING by the authorities, who see to deem it fit to send a NASA helicopter to the scene, but hey ho, eh?

yeah, that's a big signal.

I think that we've a high M4...maybe a M4.7...M4.8

The drops with quakes usually stay. It dropped 20cm in minutes.

Probably an M4, seemed to fizzle out. Maybe another bigger one on the way?

the type of jump the blue signal has made LOOKS like the type of jump made as an eruption starts. it may correct with the next update, but that's a sharp jump.when the blue signal goes ABOVE the green and red is what to look out for i think, if memory serves me right