BREAKING: Tropical Storm Cristobal Forms in the Bahamas. Cat 1 in 72 hrs! NHC not ruling out a US East-Coast Landfall

it's looking more like GOM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands has become a little better organized during the past few
hours. Additional slow development of this system is possible during
the next day or two, and a tropical depression could form as the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser
Antilles and into the Caribbean Sea. After that time, land
interaction could limit development potential over the weekend.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy
rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto
Rico, and the Virgin Islands on Thursday night and Friday. Interests
in those islands should closely monitor the progress of this system.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this system tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

12Z HWRF similar to GFS.

Cat 1 SE of Miami

[link to i57.tinypic.com]

00Z NAVGEM

[link to i61.tinypic.com]

Thanks DoorBert... It's been a quiet summer...

12Z GFS makes a dead-on Miami landfall.

[link to moe.met.fsu.edu]


Same time of year, same location, and same synopsis as Andrew

[link to en.wikipedia.org]

Invest 96 L now has a high chance of development by the NHC.

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

Invest 96 has now increased to a 60% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days by NHC

[link to ow.ly]

Screw that computer models have it going south of Florida ....cut the BS doom

hurricane doom

As of now we don't have a closed off center of circulation. The models have varied thousands of miles the past 2 days. People who live in the Gulf to east coast of US should be aware especially this time of year.

The model intensity can vary from a TS to a major Hurricane.

[link to www.tropicaltidbits.com]

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

Cloudy with a chance of Ebola.

This is going to get nasty. The C-130 hurricane planes better test for microbes this time

Ebola Hellstorm Miami 2014!

A couple of good image radar loops of the storm so you can track it.


[link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]

[link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]

Latest track forecast:

[link to i59.tinypic.com]

looks like she is trying to form a center of circulation right now....

Here is a satellite view of Invest 96L. Currently slowly organizing

[link to pbs.twimg.com]

do you see it in the video loops above...? it's there

GFS Loop

[link to www.tropicaltidbits.com]

just north of cuba

Im not seeing what you are showing on the vapor loops.

Is this a storm the CIA is about to create?

TROPICAL WAVE INVEST 96L MOVING TOWARDS CARIBBEAN, HURRICANE HUNTER MAY DEPLOY TOMORROW

[link to www.bajanreporter.com]

makes no sense no area of circulation?

wow
it's not what it's doing now

the 5 day projection is what you watch

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands is slowly becoming better organized. Additional development
is possible during the next day or two, and a tropical depression
could form as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
across the Lesser Antilles and into the Caribbean Sea. After that
time, land interaction could limit development potential over the
weekend. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and
heavy rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands on Thursday night and Friday.
Interests in those islands should closely monitor the progress of
this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the low tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

18Z models:

[link to i61.tinypic.com]

18z HWRF strenghthing cane in Bahamas heading wnw

[link to www.tropicaltidbits.com]

Meet Andrew Jr


[link to www.tropicaltidbits.com]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located a few hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands have changed little in organization during the past
several hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a
tropical depression could form while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser Antilles and
over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The mountainous terrain of
Hispaniola and eastern Cuba could limit development during the first
part of the weekend, but conditions are expected to be conducive for
development early next week when the system is forecast to move near
or over the Bahamas.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy
rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto
Rico, and the Virgin Islands tonight and Friday, and over Hispaniola
late Friday and Saturday. Interests in those islands should closely
monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]