| Users Online Now: 2,004 (Who's On?) | Visitors Today: 2,295,440 | |
| Pageviews Today: 3,188,701 | Threads Today: 749 | Posts Today: 15,022 |
| 11:59 PM | ||
| Users Online Now: 2,004 (Who's On?) | Visitors Today: 2,295,440 | |
| Pageviews Today: 3,188,701 | Threads Today: 749 | Posts Today: 15,022 |
| 11:59 PM | ||
Some US Ebola theoretical calculations based on patient Zero | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 62897921  Canada10/01/2014 01:05 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 32984204  Australia10/01/2014 01:23 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 36426283  United States10/01/2014 01:33 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | What doesn't make sense is a flu virus is airborne, and if doctors and nurses were to wear all the protection those health care workers are wearing in Africa, there's no way they would catch the flu, and yet they're getting Ebola. How is it Ebola is more contagious than the flu? Not only do they wear all kinds of protective clothing, they spray everything down with disinfectants. Something doesn't add up here. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 62937365 Canada10/01/2014 01:50 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Dilligaf2u User ID: 62793559 United States10/01/2014 02:02 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 56430458 United States10/01/2014 02:03 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 56430458 United States10/01/2014 02:08 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | This also assumes: 1)This really is Patient Zero. My logic could be flawed in some way, but if I was in charge of when to announce this, I wouldn't do so until I absolutely had to. I'd wait until the man power needed to deal with the cases was almost to high. Otherwise, why tell everyone? It causes unnecessary panic. Keeping it quiet is much more prudent to stopping the spread. 2)There are no new cases flown in, which is certainly possible, but I wouldn't bet money on it. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 59299342 United States10/01/2014 02:18 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The RO is 2. For every person infected, two more are infected. Quoting: VersionTwo (I assume you mean RO.. ROI is return on investment??) It's 2 in countries that believe in kissing and washing and personally burying their dead, which we don't. It's 2 in countries with no running water and public sewer system. It's 2 in countries that are so poor they have dirt floors and no health care system so the taxis are the ambulances and the hearses too. It's 2 in countries with high illiteracy rates so we rarely see any Liberians posting here on GLP. It's 2 in countries that welcome in well-intentioned missionaries who probably did more harm then good, laying on hands believing prayer would cure them. It's 2 in countries that trusted the psychics rather than the doctors to cure them. It's 2 in countries that distrust their government so much, they raided the ebola treatment centers and took home the bloodied mattresses and "liberated" the dying patients. It's 2 in countries that believe that herbs or vitamins or salt water or other stuff constantly touted here daily on GLP are CURES... but were not. It's 2 in countries that believe that any vaccination is a government plot to kill them. It's 2 in countries that view military interventions designed to save them as meant to kill them. It's 2 in countries that distrusted government so much, they holed up, hid from their counts, and hid their dead... so we don't really know for sure. It may be greater than 2. We have millions of people that travel and cover great distances in this country daily. Do you even have a clue? WOW! Plus, you clearly overestimate the level of tardness in the US. With personal hygiene here in the US, ebola doesn't need to be airborne if it isn't already. You ever notice the amount of people that don't wash their hands after going to the restroom? People rubbing their eyes. People chewing on their nails or picking their teeth with their fingers. People watch long enough and you see all types of gross crap. Game over man, GAME OVER!!!!! |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 51488248  United Kingdom10/01/2014 02:27 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | From GM's thread request: Quoting: YouAreDreaming [link to www.godlikeproductions.com] Sep, 2014 - Infected: 3 Dead: 2 ROI: 3.47 Oct, 2014 - Infected: 12 Dead: 8 ROI: 3.47 Nov, 2014 - Infected: 42 Dead: 29 ROI: 3.47 Dec, 2014 - Infected: 145 Dead: 101 ROI: 3.47 Jan, 2015 - Infected: 503 Dead: 352 ROI: 3.47 Feb, 2015 - Infected: 1,746 Dead: 1,222 ROI: 3.47 Mar, 2015 - Infected: 6,058 Dead: 4,240 ROI: 3.47 Apr, 2015 - Infected: 21,020 Dead: 14,714 ROI: 3.47 May, 2015 - Infected: 72,940 Dead: 51,058 ROI: 3.47 Jun, 2015 - Infected: 253,102 Dead: 177,171 ROI: 3.47 Jul, 2015 - Infected: 878,262 Dead: 614,784 ROI: 3.47 Aug, 2015 - Infected: 3,047,570 Dead: 2,133,299 ROI: 3.47 Sep, 2015 - Infected: 10,575,068 Dead: 7,402,548 ROI: 3.47 Oct, 2015 - Infected: 36,695,486 Dead: 25,686,840 ROI: 3.47 Nov, 2015 - Infected: 127,333,337 Dead: 89,133,336 ROI: 3.47 This assumes he at least infected 3 in September which is very realistic at the higher R0 of 3.47 If it's 2.60 Sep, 2014 - Infected: 3 Dead: 2 ROI: 2.6 Oct, 2014 - Infected: 7 Dead: 5 ROI: 2.6 Nov, 2014 - Infected: 18 Dead: 12 ROI: 2.6 Dec, 2014 - Infected: 46 Dead: 32 ROI: 2.6 Jan, 2015 - Infected: 119 Dead: 83 ROI: 2.6 Feb, 2015 - Infected: 309 Dead: 216 ROI: 2.6 Mar, 2015 - Infected: 803 Dead: 562 ROI: 2.6 Apr, 2015 - Infected: 2,088 Dead: 1,462 ROI: 2.6 May, 2015 - Infected: 5,430 Dead: 3,801 ROI: 2.6 Jun, 2015 - Infected: 14,117 Dead: 9,882 ROI: 2.6 Jul, 2015 - Infected: 36,703 Dead: 25,692 ROI: 2.6 Aug, 2015 - Infected: 95,429 Dead: 66,800 ROI: 2.6 Sep, 2015 - Infected: 248,115 Dead: 173,681 ROI: 2.6 Oct, 2015 - Infected: 645,100 Dead: 451,570 ROI: 2.6 Nov, 2015 - Infected: 1,677,259 Dead: 1,174,082 ROI: 2.6 Dec, 2015 - Infected: 4,360,874 Dead: 3,052,612 ROI: 2.6 Jan, 2016 - Infected: 11,338,273 Dead: 7,936,791 ROI: 2.6 Feb, 2016 - Infected: 29,479,510 Dead: 20,635,657 ROI: 2.6 Mar, 2016 - Infected: 76,646,727 Dead: 53,652,709 ROI: 2.6 Apr, 2016 - Infected: 199,281,489 Dead: 139,497,042 ROI: 2.6 Keep in mind the US has better health care so I do think the RO will be lower at first... and may increment if they cannot contain it due to the 21 day incubation period allowing it to spread in stealth. Apr, 2016 - Infected: 199,281,489 Dead: 139,497,042 ROI: 2.6 <<<< So thats nearly everyone in america by the begining of 2016? That's very scary indeed |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 63280328 United States10/01/2014 02:29 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | You got to keep in mind that Ebola can't spread like the flu or a cold. If it did we would really be fucked. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 48420715 YES. IT. FUCKING. CAN. What part of body fluids (sneezing, coughing droplets of body fluids) do you NOT fucking understand???????????? It will be on money, door handles, in bathrooms, shaking hands????? 21 days infectious on surfaces. 21 days to show symptoms. Infectious in sperm for 7 months AFTER LIVING THROUGH AN INFECTION. Bleach, C, ANY immune booster you can find. Wash hands, wash hair after being in public. Hair picks up body fluids as people sneeze, cough. Sneezes go 30 fucking feet with body fluid droplets. Coughs go about 15. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 55046386 United States10/01/2014 02:30 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
VersionTwo  User ID: 60748257 United States10/01/2014 02:35 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I haven't read through this entire thread but one thing I haven't seen yet is climate. Ebola survives a lot better the colder the temperature. So say at room temperature, its much more likely to stay infectious on materials or in the air. I'm not well versed on the quality of life in West Africa, but I doubt there are many places with AC. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 56430458 It doesn't last long in sunlight. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 51488248 United Kingdom10/01/2014 02:36 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The facts of the matter is people. This case if it is patient ZERO in the Usa , the actions taken and the outcome from this will decide humanities fate If patient Zero has been walking around with the symptoms for three weeks - NOBODY will know how many people have contracted it from them because if they have travelled on public transport system. They will 100% have infected others. This case will be the golden chalice of seeing how it spreads in an organised socitey. AFrica is a wide open country, villagers have lost large portions of family due to close proximity contact. In a city with millions on a public transport system, sports grounds or shopping mall, the rate of infect rises considerably. It's alright saying we don't kiss our dead like the do in liberia but we are very much more socially mobile in the UK and USA which makes infection rates explode. People in africa tend to live in villages. the authorites are notorious for misinformation especially sierra leone. Whole villages have been wiped out because of this disease. In our society we are much more prone to spreading the disease more quickly and the danger is not just from the spread of the disease but it's introduction to Bodies filled with modern day antibiotics causing it to mutate. This is where the very real Danger lies. The authorties left it too late to act in Africa.. we are beholden now to g_ds will and people protecting themselves , IE no physical contact with others , wearing disposable gloves and masks. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 51488248 United Kingdom10/01/2014 02:37 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I haven't read through this entire thread but one thing I haven't seen yet is climate. Ebola survives a lot better the colder the temperature. So say at room temperature, its much more likely to stay infectious on materials or in the air. I'm not well versed on the quality of life in West Africa, but I doubt there are many places with AC. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 56430458 It doesn't last long in sunlight. Africa - ? isn't a hot country then. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 60065443 United States10/01/2014 03:15 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 62821065 United States10/01/2014 03:21 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | In Africa, the ROI for Ebola is exponential, due to lack of infrastructure to contain the disease. In the US, our health care infrastructure and government funds to combat the disease are light years ahead of Africa's, and will probably derail this epidemic before it gets off the ground. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 59455165 Yea, an article about Nigeria apparently successfully stemming the spread of Ebola is currently linked at the Drudgereport.com. If a turd world country like that can manage to keep the infection rate down, then the US and other advanced nations should do even better. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 62937365 Canada10/01/2014 03:32 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | In Africa, the ROI for Ebola is exponential, due to lack of infrastructure to contain the disease. In the US, our health care infrastructure and government funds to combat the disease are light years ahead of Africa's, and will probably derail this epidemic before it gets off the ground. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 59455165 Yea, an article about Nigeria apparently successfully stemming the spread of Ebola is currently linked at the Drudgereport.com. If a turd world country like that can manage to keep the infection rate down, then the US and other advanced nations should do even better. Should is the operative word. But then you have to take the (corrupt) Nigerian politicians word that it is actually being successful at containment. With all the numbers I've seen regarding this, that for every confirmed case there's been 3-10 unreported cases coupled with a 3 week contagious incubation period, time will tell. I have to admit while reading the majority of Ebola threads on GLP, I'm not hopeful given the arrogance of "its not gonna happen here bro, it cant because the flu kills more yearly yo". And with one final sigh, humanity once again fades into history. |
| Old Guy User ID: 11235712 United States10/01/2014 11:03 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 14203844 Canada10/01/2014 11:05 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I second that.... Just like the crack head that's lost everything and still doesn't see being addicted.... Humans are a strange breed alright. And the crazy part.. People will still be in denial when people around them are dropping like flies. I donno, I digress. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 57443824 United States10/01/2014 11:06 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | From GM's thread request: Quoting: YouAreDreaming [link to www.godlikeproductions.com] Sep, 2014 - Infected: 3 Dead: 2 ROI: 3.47 Oct, 2014 - Infected: 12 Dead: 8 ROI: 3.47 Nov, 2014 - Infected: 42 Dead: 29 ROI: 3.47 Dec, 2014 - Infected: 145 Dead: 101 ROI: 3.47 Jan, 2015 - Infected: 503 Dead: 352 ROI: 3.47 Feb, 2015 - Infected: 1,746 Dead: 1,222 ROI: 3.47 Mar, 2015 - Infected: 6,058 Dead: 4,240 ROI: 3.47 Apr, 2015 - Infected: 21,020 Dead: 14,714 ROI: 3.47 May, 2015 - Infected: 72,940 Dead: 51,058 ROI: 3.47 Jun, 2015 - Infected: 253,102 Dead: 177,171 ROI: 3.47 Jul, 2015 - Infected: 878,262 Dead: 614,784 ROI: 3.47 Aug, 2015 - Infected: 3,047,570 Dead: 2,133,299 ROI: 3.47 Sep, 2015 - Infected: 10,575,068 Dead: 7,402,548 ROI: 3.47 Oct, 2015 - Infected: 36,695,486 Dead: 25,686,840 ROI: 3.47 Nov, 2015 - Infected: 127,333,337 Dead: 89,133,336 ROI: 3.47 This assumes he at least infected 3 in September which is very realistic at the higher R0 of 3.47 If it's 2.60 Sep, 2014 - Infected: 3 Dead: 2 ROI: 2.6 Oct, 2014 - Infected: 7 Dead: 5 ROI: 2.6 Nov, 2014 - Infected: 18 Dead: 12 ROI: 2.6 Dec, 2014 - Infected: 46 Dead: 32 ROI: 2.6 Jan, 2015 - Infected: 119 Dead: 83 ROI: 2.6 Feb, 2015 - Infected: 309 Dead: 216 ROI: 2.6 Mar, 2015 - Infected: 803 Dead: 562 ROI: 2.6 Apr, 2015 - Infected: 2,088 Dead: 1,462 ROI: 2.6 May, 2015 - Infected: 5,430 Dead: 3,801 ROI: 2.6 Jun, 2015 - Infected: 14,117 Dead: 9,882 ROI: 2.6 Jul, 2015 - Infected: 36,703 Dead: 25,692 ROI: 2.6 Aug, 2015 - Infected: 95,429 Dead: 66,800 ROI: 2.6 Sep, 2015 - Infected: 248,115 Dead: 173,681 ROI: 2.6 Oct, 2015 - Infected: 645,100 Dead: 451,570 ROI: 2.6 Nov, 2015 - Infected: 1,677,259 Dead: 1,174,082 ROI: 2.6 Dec, 2015 - Infected: 4,360,874 Dead: 3,052,612 ROI: 2.6 Jan, 2016 - Infected: 11,338,273 Dead: 7,936,791 ROI: 2.6 Feb, 2016 - Infected: 29,479,510 Dead: 20,635,657 ROI: 2.6 Mar, 2016 - Infected: 76,646,727 Dead: 53,652,709 ROI: 2.6 Apr, 2016 - Infected: 199,281,489 Dead: 139,497,042 ROI: 2.6 Keep in mind the US has better health care so I do think the RO will be lower at first... and may increment if they cannot contain it due to the 21 day incubation period allowing it to spread in stealth. No need to panic. President Obama is monitoring the sitiation. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 63485887 United States10/01/2014 10:00 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | This starts in Texas. Anybody infected in Texas can get in a car, and in 1 day be anywhere else in the continental US. ANYWHERE in 1 days travel time. Left coast, right coast, even Canada, you name it. just 1 fucking day in a car. Thats not even taking into account air travel. If anything, the rate of infection should likely be much higher. All it would take is an infected host in the right "venue" so to speak, and it could be passed on to 100's if not 1000's Better make life count from here on out. Spend time with your family, get right with God, whatever you gotta do. Don't wait. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 42163703 United States10/03/2014 02:14 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I'm glad someone is injecting some analytical thought into all the doom, but it needs to be said that the model only holds up in a system where no external forces are impeding the disease spread. In Africa, the ROI for Ebola is exponential, due to lack of infrastructure to contain the disease. In the US, our health care infrastructure and government funds to combat the disease are light years ahead of Africa's, and will probably derail this epidemic before it gets off the ground. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 59455165 Right, I guess that is how he got here infected, went to the hospital and got home infected. Don't forget telling them to stay home or else, or else what? They went out anyway. Lets not forget the top notch clean up team and the well protected delivary boy. This country is full of third world people and its showing. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 58126151 United States10/03/2014 02:18 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 51488248 United Kingdom10/03/2014 02:21 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | From GM's thread request: Quoting: YouAreDreaming [link to www.godlikeproductions.com] Sep, 2014 - Infected: 3 Dead: 2 ROI: 3.47 Oct, 2014 - Infected: 12 Dead: 8 ROI: 3.47 Nov, 2014 - Infected: 42 Dead: 29 ROI: 3.47 Dec, 2014 - Infected: 145 Dead: 101 ROI: 3.47 Jan, 2015 - Infected: 503 Dead: 352 ROI: 3.47 Feb, 2015 - Infected: 1,746 Dead: 1,222 ROI: 3.47 Mar, 2015 - Infected: 6,058 Dead: 4,240 ROI: 3.47 Apr, 2015 - Infected: 21,020 Dead: 14,714 ROI: 3.47 May, 2015 - Infected: 72,940 Dead: 51,058 ROI: 3.47 Jun, 2015 - Infected: 253,102 Dead: 177,171 ROI: 3.47 Jul, 2015 - Infected: 878,262 Dead: 614,784 ROI: 3.47 Aug, 2015 - Infected: 3,047,570 Dead: 2,133,299 ROI: 3.47 Sep, 2015 - Infected: 10,575,068 Dead: 7,402,548 ROI: 3.47 Oct, 2015 - Infected: 36,695,486 Dead: 25,686,840 ROI: 3.47 Nov, 2015 - Infected: 127,333,337 Dead: 89,133,336 ROI: 3.47 This assumes he at least infected 3 in September which is very realistic at the higher R0 of 3.47 If it's 2.60 Sep, 2014 - Infected: 3 Dead: 2 ROI: 2.6 Oct, 2014 - Infected: 7 Dead: 5 ROI: 2.6 Nov, 2014 - Infected: 18 Dead: 12 ROI: 2.6 Dec, 2014 - Infected: 46 Dead: 32 ROI: 2.6 Jan, 2015 - Infected: 119 Dead: 83 ROI: 2.6 Feb, 2015 - Infected: 309 Dead: 216 ROI: 2.6 Mar, 2015 - Infected: 803 Dead: 562 ROI: 2.6 Apr, 2015 - Infected: 2,088 Dead: 1,462 ROI: 2.6 May, 2015 - Infected: 5,430 Dead: 3,801 ROI: 2.6 Jun, 2015 - Infected: 14,117 Dead: 9,882 ROI: 2.6 Jul, 2015 - Infected: 36,703 Dead: 25,692 ROI: 2.6 Aug, 2015 - Infected: 95,429 Dead: 66,800 ROI: 2.6 Sep, 2015 - Infected: 248,115 Dead: 173,681 ROI: 2.6 Oct, 2015 - Infected: 645,100 Dead: 451,570 ROI: 2.6 Nov, 2015 - Infected: 1,677,259 Dead: 1,174,082 ROI: 2.6 Dec, 2015 - Infected: 4,360,874 Dead: 3,052,612 ROI: 2.6 Jan, 2016 - Infected: 11,338,273 Dead: 7,936,791 ROI: 2.6 Feb, 2016 - Infected: 29,479,510 Dead: 20,635,657 ROI: 2.6 Mar, 2016 - Infected: 76,646,727 Dead: 53,652,709 ROI: 2.6 Apr, 2016 - Infected: 199,281,489 Dead: 139,497,042 ROI: 2.6 Keep in mind the US has better health care so I do think the RO will be lower at first... and may increment if they cannot contain it due to the 21 day incubation period allowing it to spread in stealth. There have been just over 3300 deaths in Sierra leone with over 7300 infected so these are not correct |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 63442960 United States10/03/2014 02:26 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | OK 76 cases had emerged when doctors without borders moved in. 4 months 4 nations and 7500+ confirmed cases later cdc projects 1 million by January and 1 billion by August 2015. Patient 0 at a vector of 100 quarantined/isolated known contacts. With 2500 more potential vectors of contacts. (with flights combined). so every single ebola carrier based on patient zero has the potential to infect 3000 people in a 3 day period. There are 7500 known patient 0's to date. There is likely 10,000 patient 0,s in all of Africa. There were 30,000 potential exposures of new carriers within the last 24 hrs. With a 25% chance rate of infection. |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 39626624 United Kingdom10/03/2014 02:27 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | From GM's thread request: Quoting: YouAreDreaming [link to www.godlikeproductions.com] Sep, 2014 - Infected: 3 Dead: 2 ROI: 3.47 Oct, 2014 - Infected: 12 Dead: 8 ROI: 3.47 Nov, 2014 - Infected: 42 Dead: 29 ROI: 3.47 Dec, 2014 - Infected: 145 Dead: 101 ROI: 3.47 Jan, 2015 - Infected: 503 Dead: 352 ROI: 3.47 Feb, 2015 - Infected: 1,746 Dead: 1,222 ROI: 3.47 Mar, 2015 - Infected: 6,058 Dead: 4,240 ROI: 3.47 Apr, 2015 - Infected: 21,020 Dead: 14,714 ROI: 3.47 May, 2015 - Infected: 72,940 Dead: 51,058 ROI: 3.47 Jun, 2015 - Infected: 253,102 Dead: 177,171 ROI: 3.47 Jul, 2015 - Infected: 878,262 Dead: 614,784 ROI: 3.47 Aug, 2015 - Infected: 3,047,570 Dead: 2,133,299 ROI: 3.47 Sep, 2015 - Infected: 10,575,068 Dead: 7,402,548 ROI: 3.47 Oct, 2015 - Infected: 36,695,486 Dead: 25,686,840 ROI: 3.47 Nov, 2015 - Infected: 127,333,337 Dead: 89,133,336 ROI: 3.47 This assumes he at least infected 3 in September which is very realistic at the higher R0 of 3.47 If it's 2.60 Sep, 2014 - Infected: 3 Dead: 2 ROI: 2.6 Oct, 2014 - Infected: 7 Dead: 5 ROI: 2.6 Nov, 2014 - Infected: 18 Dead: 12 ROI: 2.6 Dec, 2014 - Infected: 46 Dead: 32 ROI: 2.6 Jan, 2015 - Infected: 119 Dead: 83 ROI: 2.6 Feb, 2015 - Infected: 309 Dead: 216 ROI: 2.6 Mar, 2015 - Infected: 803 Dead: 562 ROI: 2.6 Apr, 2015 - Infected: 2,088 Dead: 1,462 ROI: 2.6 May, 2015 - Infected: 5,430 Dead: 3,801 ROI: 2.6 Jun, 2015 - Infected: 14,117 Dead: 9,882 ROI: 2.6 Jul, 2015 - Infected: 36,703 Dead: 25,692 ROI: 2.6 Aug, 2015 - Infected: 95,429 Dead: 66,800 ROI: 2.6 Sep, 2015 - Infected: 248,115 Dead: 173,681 ROI: 2.6 Oct, 2015 - Infected: 645,100 Dead: 451,570 ROI: 2.6 Nov, 2015 - Infected: 1,677,259 Dead: 1,174,082 ROI: 2.6 Dec, 2015 - Infected: 4,360,874 Dead: 3,052,612 ROI: 2.6 Jan, 2016 - Infected: 11,338,273 Dead: 7,936,791 ROI: 2.6 Feb, 2016 - Infected: 29,479,510 Dead: 20,635,657 ROI: 2.6 Mar, 2016 - Infected: 76,646,727 Dead: 53,652,709 ROI: 2.6 Apr, 2016 - Infected: 199,281,489 Dead: 139,497,042 ROI: 2.6 Keep in mind the US has better health care so I do think the RO will be lower at first... and may increment if they cannot contain it due to the 21 day incubation period allowing it to spread in stealth. Your ROI model is probably more accurate that my simple model of 2^n where n is number of weeks. However, what your model is missing is the fact that there will not be just one patient 0. There's absolutely nothing stopping them and it's just a matter of how fast they arrive. That's probably a poisson distribution but for now let's just assume that one new arrives every month and starts the process you modelled in a new location. Then after 10 months we should have 10 times what you have estimated. Fun, isn't it? How would a more sever than usual Flu season affect this |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 10961340  Denmark10/03/2014 02:29 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 58231165 United States10/03/2014 02:30 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The mortality rate also depends on the individuals immunity to viruses. We don't know the age group on people who died or who has made a recovery. The effect might be different on people whose immune system are fucked! Like HIV patients etc. |
| Nexus-9 User ID: 16911207 United States10/03/2014 02:34 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | From GM's thread request: Quoting: YouAreDreaming [link to www.godlikeproductions.com] Sep, 2014 - Infected: 3 Dead: 2 ROI: 3.47 Oct, 2014 - Infected: 12 Dead: 8 ROI: 3.47 Nov, 2014 - Infected: 42 Dead: 29 ROI: 3.47 Dec, 2014 - Infected: 145 Dead: 101 ROI: 3.47 Jan, 2015 - Infected: 503 Dead: 352 ROI: 3.47 Feb, 2015 - Infected: 1,746 Dead: 1,222 ROI: 3.47 Mar, 2015 - Infected: 6,058 Dead: 4,240 ROI: 3.47 Apr, 2015 - Infected: 21,020 Dead: 14,714 ROI: 3.47 May, 2015 - Infected: 72,940 Dead: 51,058 ROI: 3.47 Jun, 2015 - Infected: 253,102 Dead: 177,171 ROI: 3.47 Jul, 2015 - Infected: 878,262 Dead: 614,784 ROI: 3.47 Aug, 2015 - Infected: 3,047,570 Dead: 2,133,299 ROI: 3.47 Sep, 2015 - Infected: 10,575,068 Dead: 7,402,548 ROI: 3.47 Oct, 2015 - Infected: 36,695,486 Dead: 25,686,840 ROI: 3.47 Nov, 2015 - Infected: 127,333,337 Dead: 89,133,336 ROI: 3.47 This assumes he at least infected 3 in September which is very realistic at the higher R0 of 3.47 If it's 2.60 Sep, 2014 - Infected: 3 Dead: 2 ROI: 2.6 Oct, 2014 - Infected: 7 Dead: 5 ROI: 2.6 Nov, 2014 - Infected: 18 Dead: 12 ROI: 2.6 Dec, 2014 - Infected: 46 Dead: 32 ROI: 2.6 Jan, 2015 - Infected: 119 Dead: 83 ROI: 2.6 Feb, 2015 - Infected: 309 Dead: 216 ROI: 2.6 Mar, 2015 - Infected: 803 Dead: 562 ROI: 2.6 Apr, 2015 - Infected: 2,088 Dead: 1,462 ROI: 2.6 May, 2015 - Infected: 5,430 Dead: 3,801 ROI: 2.6 Jun, 2015 - Infected: 14,117 Dead: 9,882 ROI: 2.6 Jul, 2015 - Infected: 36,703 Dead: 25,692 ROI: 2.6 Aug, 2015 - Infected: 95,429 Dead: 66,800 ROI: 2.6 Sep, 2015 - Infected: 248,115 Dead: 173,681 ROI: 2.6 Oct, 2015 - Infected: 645,100 Dead: 451,570 ROI: 2.6 Nov, 2015 - Infected: 1,677,259 Dead: 1,174,082 ROI: 2.6 Dec, 2015 - Infected: 4,360,874 Dead: 3,052,612 ROI: 2.6 Jan, 2016 - Infected: 11,338,273 Dead: 7,936,791 ROI: 2.6 Feb, 2016 - Infected: 29,479,510 Dead: 20,635,657 ROI: 2.6 Mar, 2016 - Infected: 76,646,727 Dead: 53,652,709 ROI: 2.6 Apr, 2016 - Infected: 199,281,489 Dead: 139,497,042 ROI: 2.6 Keep in mind the US has better health care so I do think the RO will be lower at first... and may increment if they cannot contain it due to the 21 day incubation period allowing it to spread in stealth. Bullshit. That won't make a spit of difference because we have fucking, arrogant "expert" idiots who only parrot this statement out of a false sense of security. "Fiery the Angels rose, & as they rose deep thunder roll'd Around their shores: indignant burning with the fires of Orc" - William Blake, America a Prophecy (...also misquoted in Blade Runner by Roy Batty) "Tempus est optimus iudex" - "Time is the best judge" "The very word "'secrecy'" is repugnant in a free and open society; and we are as a people inherently and historically opposed to secret societies, to secret oaths and to secret proceedings." - John F. Kennedy, New York City, April 27, 1961 |
| natalie User ID: 47753737 United States10/03/2014 02:43 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | From GM's thread request: Quoting: YouAreDreaming [link to www.godlikeproductions.com] Sep, 2014 - Infected: 3 Dead: 2 ROI: 3.47 Oct, 2014 - Infected: 12 Dead: 8 ROI: 3.47 Nov, 2014 - Infected: 42 Dead: 29 ROI: 3.47 Dec, 2014 - Infected: 145 Dead: 101 ROI: 3.47 Jan, 2015 - Infected: 503 Dead: 352 ROI: 3.47 Feb, 2015 - Infected: 1,746 Dead: 1,222 ROI: 3.47 Mar, 2015 - Infected: 6,058 Dead: 4,240 ROI: 3.47 Apr, 2015 - Infected: 21,020 Dead: 14,714 ROI: 3.47 May, 2015 - Infected: 72,940 Dead: 51,058 ROI: 3.47 Jun, 2015 - Infected: 253,102 Dead: 177,171 ROI: 3.47 Jul, 2015 - Infected: 878,262 Dead: 614,784 ROI: 3.47 Aug, 2015 - Infected: 3,047,570 Dead: 2,133,299 ROI: 3.47 Sep, 2015 - Infected: 10,575,068 Dead: 7,402,548 ROI: 3.47 Oct, 2015 - Infected: 36,695,486 Dead: 25,686,840 ROI: 3.47 Nov, 2015 - Infected: 127,333,337 Dead: 89,133,336 ROI: 3.47 This assumes he at least infected 3 in September which is very realistic at the higher R0 of 3.47 If it's 2.60 Sep, 2014 - Infected: 3 Dead: 2 ROI: 2.6 Oct, 2014 - Infected: 7 Dead: 5 ROI: 2.6 Nov, 2014 - Infected: 18 Dead: 12 ROI: 2.6 Dec, 2014 - Infected: 46 Dead: 32 ROI: 2.6 Jan, 2015 - Infected: 119 Dead: 83 ROI: 2.6 Feb, 2015 - Infected: 309 Dead: 216 ROI: 2.6 Mar, 2015 - Infected: 803 Dead: 562 ROI: 2.6 Apr, 2015 - Infected: 2,088 Dead: 1,462 ROI: 2.6 May, 2015 - Infected: 5,430 Dead: 3,801 ROI: 2.6 Jun, 2015 - Infected: 14,117 Dead: 9,882 ROI: 2.6 Jul, 2015 - Infected: 36,703 Dead: 25,692 ROI: 2.6 Aug, 2015 - Infected: 95,429 Dead: 66,800 ROI: 2.6 Sep, 2015 - Infected: 248,115 Dead: 173,681 ROI: 2.6 Oct, 2015 - Infected: 645,100 Dead: 451,570 ROI: 2.6 Nov, 2015 - Infected: 1,677,259 Dead: 1,174,082 ROI: 2.6 Dec, 2015 - Infected: 4,360,874 Dead: 3,052,612 ROI: 2.6 Jan, 2016 - Infected: 11,338,273 Dead: 7,936,791 ROI: 2.6 Feb, 2016 - Infected: 29,479,510 Dead: 20,635,657 ROI: 2.6 Mar, 2016 - Infected: 76,646,727 Dead: 53,652,709 ROI: 2.6 Apr, 2016 - Infected: 199,281,489 Dead: 139,497,042 ROI: 2.6 Keep in mind the US has better health care so I do think the RO will be lower at first... and may increment if they cannot contain it due to the 21 day incubation period allowing it to spread in stealth. No need to panic. President Obama is monitoring the sitiation. Obama will save us with his sweet sweet microchip |
