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Statistics 101 Proves Their Lies on Ebola

 
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 61289510
United States
10/03/2014 06:12 PM
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Statistics 101 Proves Their Lies on Ebola
We're being told there is a 0% chance of getting Ebola without direct contact with an infected carrier (who is symptomatic, no less) and a 100% chance it will be contained.

I vaguely remember from college statistics class something about the "confidence interval" in a statistical model, that being the measure of the reliability of a model. I was hazy most of those days (re: High), but I seem to remember there being a rule against ever using 100% or 0% in any modeling exercise. Can't remember if it had to do with the Uncertainty Principle or Unknown Population Parameters, I just know no real scientist would ever use either 100% or 0% and expect to be taken seriously.

Bottom line, the more certitude in their language and assurances, the more you can be sure its nothing but a nice, warm tit of lies meant to suckle you soundly back to sleep.

/end rant/
Fafhrd

User ID: 61790121
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10/03/2014 06:14 PM
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Re: Statistics 101 Proves Their Lies on Ebola
#[3] For very large values of 0
#[4] For very small values of 100
That’s the thing about progress; all the word means is “continued movement in the same direction.” If the direction was a bad idea to start with, or if it’s passed the point at which it still made sense, continuing to trudge blindly onward into the gathering dark may not be the best idea in the world. Break out of that mental straitjacket, and the range of possible futures broadens out immeasurably.

John Michael Greer
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10/03/2014 06:19 PM
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Re: Statistics 101 Proves Their Lies on Ebola
#[3] For very large values of 0
#[4] For very small values of 100
 Quoting: Fafhrd


Pretend I was high as two kites my entire college career and remind me again what that means...
Fafhrd

User ID: 61790121
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10/03/2014 06:20 PM
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Re: Statistics 101 Proves Their Lies on Ebola
It means they're lying.
That’s the thing about progress; all the word means is “continued movement in the same direction.” If the direction was a bad idea to start with, or if it’s passed the point at which it still made sense, continuing to trudge blindly onward into the gathering dark may not be the best idea in the world. Break out of that mental straitjacket, and the range of possible futures broadens out immeasurably.

John Michael Greer





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