CIA De-Classified Document, Being Used Again to Destabilize Russia

First the link.

[link to www.foia.cia.gov]

Written in 1977 by a CIA economic analyst. The author was dead on in his analysis of the short term peak of Russian(USSR) oil production.

You don't have to believe in Peak Oil to understand how big a role this played in the eventual collapse of the Soviet Union.

For those unwilling to read I will give you the 2 cent tour of this incredibly prescient paper. At the time this was written we were in the midst of an oil crisis in the United States and we were just understanding the power of the Petrol Weapon as it was being used against us by the OPEC nations.

What this author was warning the government of the US is that an opportunity was fast approaching which could cause a huge crisis for the Soviet Union and its increasingly bold expansion plans. The author saw that the Soviet Union was using its increasing revenues from its growing oil production, mainly coming from the new fields in the Caspian basin and from Siberia.

What this analyst saw was that they were relying on several factors to increase their share of the global oil pie. First was the PRICE of oil, which at the time was dictated by US DOLLAR(or the Petrol Dollar). Second was its reliance on US Companies to supply them with highly technical replacement parts for their fledgling deep wells.

What the analyst suggested was a two prong attack. One on price, one on supply. First was to "urge" OPEC nations(aka Saudi Arabia) to cease their destructive embargos and to pump as much oil as they could. (He doesn't saw HOW we would do this).

Number two was to stop shipment of ALL deep well technology to the Soviet Union. The analyst suggested it would take from 5 to 7 years for the Soviet Union to create the technology to make their own parts...

To finish up the story this information was used in the later part of the Carter administration and the first 4 years of the Reagan administration.

In the last years of the Carter administration we were able to woo Saudi Arabia into our camp, with the promise that we would consider an attack on them as an attack on the United States. Which is now known as the Carter Doctrine.

[link to en.wikipedia.org]


This plays into a decision that was made by the OPEC nations(IE Saudi Arabia) over this holiday weekend, which will lead to a complete collapse of oil prices in the very near future.

OPEC(KSA) has decided to continue to produce at its current level, even though US shale oil is flooding the market and driving down prices.

In the past any softness in price would lead to production cuts to drive up prices. But someone is speaking in the ear of the Saudi upper echelons and they have decided to keep production flat, which means that prices are going to collapse. In the long term this will be good for OPEC as this will drive domestic US producers out of business as their business models require 70 dollar or higher crude prices...

BUT.... Russia and the former soviet nations require 90 or higher to keep themselves profitable and to allow them to throttle their oil production.. Russia could easily increase production, but they choose not to, as prices allow them to profit at a lower production rate..

But if oil prices collapse into the 50 level, which I believe it will, it will be absolutely destructive to the fragile Russian economy, which is currently trying to make inroads against the US Petrol dollar system with China.. This move requires a high oil price to keep all the balls in the air for Russia and China.

This move by OPEC has to be seen as the response to Russia and Ukraine.. The US has just taken the next step in the creeping Cold War II on our way to WWIII...

Robert