If Mariupol Falls to Rebels, Is Kiev Next?

MOSCOW—The war in eastern Ukraine expanded from the Donetsk region to the outskirts of the strategic port city of Mariupol on Saturday as rockets fell on cars and pedestrians. At least 30 people were killed, including a 15-year old girl and a little boy about five years old. The attack also wounded about 100 civilians.

The question now is, who bombed Mariupol? Neither side in the conflict claimed responsibility.

The attack on Mariupol is a major expansion of the conflict. Its capture by rebel forces would help link up the rebellious eastern regions—supported by Moscow—with the Russian-annexed Crimea, allowing Russia’s proxies to push hundreds of kilometers west towards Kiev.

Shortly before the attack, pro-Russian rebels posted two videos online. In one of them Donetsk locals gathered at a bus station to put flowers in memory of victims killed in mortar fire earlier that week.

In the video, the leader of Donetsk rebel republic, Aleksandr Zakharchenko, stood before the crowd and pronounced: “Today an offensive was launched on Mariupol.” The next target would be Dybaltsevo, he said—“God willing”—and that in a couple of days his forces would give the Ukrainian troops a bloody fight, using the Russian word for “boiler.” He was referring to the November 2014 battle in Ilovaisk, which was a massacre of government troops. The crowd applauded wildly; somebody screamed: “Alleluia!”

But later that day Zakharchenko appeared in a second video. This time he looked upset and sounded less self-confident. This time, the leader of the self-proclaimed republic insisted that Mariupol would be “liberated” without killing civilians. “We are not animals,” the rebel leader insisted. “We are not going to storm Mariupol the same way Kiev does it in Donetsk.”

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