I am not 100% sure yet but considering the supposed fallout between Israel and USA and all the various constant shifting in alliances that seems to be happening - this article was put out a day or two back and it really is quite telling.
Australia's national interests continue to be intertwined with the Middle East - and as a result, with Iran. That's why the Foreign Minister Julie Bishop's upcoming visit to Tehran is so significant, writes Tim Mayfield.
Perhaps the only consistent aspect of the multiple crises currently afflicting the Middle East is that the Islamic Republic of Iran will inevitably be involved in some way.
Whether it be the Iraqi offensive to retake Tikrit from the so-called Islamic State, the delicately poised negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program or, most recently, the ascendancy of the Shia Houthis in Yemen, Iran's fingerprints are evident almost wherever and whenever there is news emanating from the troubled region.
The conclusion Australia, the US, and our allies should draw is that Iran is incredibly consequential to the future progress of the Middle East and that we must engage with Tehran accordingly.
And yet there are those at home and abroad who excoriate Iran as irreconcilably and implacably opposed to a world order in which the US retains primacy and Israel continues to exist.
It is this kind of thinking that led Jordanian King Abdullah II to coin the phrase "Shia crescent" to describe the notion of a growing power bloc at the heart of the Middle East based on sectarian loyalty. Implicit in this claim was the idea that Iran was using the Shia populations of countries such as Iraq, Syria and Lebanon as Trojan horses with which to exert pressure on Sunni regimes and advance its regional ambitions.
That Iran seeks to leverage influence via sectarian allies is beyond question; Tehran's ongoing support for Hezbollah is evidence enough of that. Likewise, there is no doubt that the theocratic state has been a long-time foe of the West and that it has blood on its hands in this regard.
What is less clear is how entrenched that traditional antagonism is and the degree to which we should be worried about Iran over other regional threats - the most prominent being Sunni extremism.
Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif shakes hands with US secretary of state John Kerry in Geneva.
Photo: Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif shakes hands with US secretary of state John Kerry in Geneva. (AFP Photo: Fabrice Coffrini)
While there are some who believe that Iran is a bigger security threat than IS, I am not convinced by this argument. Rather, a gradual thaw in Iranian-Western relations could well be a decisive factor in stabilising the region.
The situation in Yemen is a case in point.
The astonishing rise of the Shia Houthis, who have taken control of the capital Sanaa and are busy extending their gains into the south, can be largely attributed to the power vacuum that has emerged in Yemen. However, there is also evidence of covert Iranian assistance in the form of financial, material, and logistic support.
While it would be simple for the West to denounce Iran's support for the Houthis - and throw our weight behind displaced president Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi - such a move would enhance the risk of Yemen spiralling into a civil war that may take years to resolve. This is especially so in the context of the near consensus amongst Yemen experts that no single faction can independently rule the country for the foreseeable future.
The stakes are upped considerably due to the significant presence of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and the emergence of IS as a new player via its claim of responsibility for the recent mosque bombings in Sanaa.
Regardless of whether Tehran has acted wisely or not in meddling in Yemeni affairs, the spectre of an extremist-ridden failed state in the Middle East should be enough to spur Iran, the US, and the Gulf Cooperation Council to the negotiating table along with warring parties. This also holds true for other theatres where core Western and Iranian interests are present including Iraq and Syria.
Moreover, the successful conclusion of the nuclear negotiations is an essential prelude to wider cooperation, adding yet another dimension to the discussions that have been occurring in Geneva between the permanent members of the UN Security Council (and Germany) and Iran.
For Australia, the fact that our national interests continue to be intertwined with the Middle East means that now is the time to take stock of our own relationship with Iran.
Julie Bishop has showed that she gets this in accepting an invitation from Iran's foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to visit Tehran in April. When she visits, Bishop will become the first senior Australian government figure to visit Iran in more than a decade.
This is significant enough in itself. However, it also offers a unique opportunity to address the shared scourge of Sunni extremism. That will be a moment too rare to be wasted dwelling on historical grievances over the vast benefits of détente.
Tim Mayfield is a freelance writer who has previously worked at the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and the Department of Defence
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link to www.abc.net.au]
Things are getting really strange.
Australia
