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Page 12, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14

Tropical Storm Ernesto

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Atma
User ID: 117053
8/24/2006 4:57 PM
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Tropical Storm Ernesto
Quote

*Update Sunday 8/27

000
WTNT65 KNHC 270905
TCUAT5
HURRICANE ERNESTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
504 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM
ERNESTO HAS NOW REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH...

RECENT DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS IN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. THIS
MAKES ERNESTO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Atma
User ID: 117053
8/24/2006 5:00 PM
Re: Tropical Storm ErnestoQuote

5 day forecast [link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

Into the Gulf and ... ?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 9482
8/24/2006 5:02 PM
Re: Tropical Storm ErnestoQuote

Into the Yucatan. This storm will not enter the gulf and threaten the US.
Dino1
User ID: 102513
8/24/2006 5:06 PM
Re: Tropical Storm ErnestoQuote

interesting how fast this is moving at such a southerly latitude.
Atma
User ID: 117053
8/24/2006 5:14 PM
Re: Tropical Storm ErnestoQuote

[link to www.crownweather.com]

[link to www.cira.colostate.edu]



Catagory 2 by Wednesday. Straight to New Orleans and landfall as a Cat 6.

damned
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 104168
8/24/2006 5:14 PM
Re: Tropical Storm ErnestoQuote

Into the Yucatan. This storm will not enter the gulf and threaten the US.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9482


It will go in the gulf
[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 134095
8/24/2006 11:16 PM
Re: Tropical Storm ErnestoQuote

time to resurrect this thread


[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 135406
8/24/2006 11:44 PM
Re: Tropical Storm ErnestoQuote

Atma my dream had it hitting houston dead on

We really need to watch this one. I hope it doesn't turn out like my dream

[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 135425
8/25/2006 12:44 AM
Re: Tropical Storm ErnestoQuote

theres a high sitting out in the gulf off the coast of texas,maybe this will keep it away from us folks on the texas coast.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 135427
8/25/2006 1:01 AM
Re: Tropical Storm ErnestoQuote

Ain't shit gonna happen just like the first part of the season!
Fool
User ID: 114731
8/25/2006 3:26 AM
Re: Tropical Storm ErnestoQuote

It's alive... at least it looks like it's heating up.

[link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]
[link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]
Atma
User ID: 117053
8/25/2006 4:03 AM
Re: Tropical Storm ErnestoQuote

They have it as a hurricane by the time it hits Jamaica.

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

[link to www.crownweather.com]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 133681
8/25/2006 4:22 AM
Re: Tropical Storm ErnestoQuote

This one's headfed to Havana, a going away present for Fidel
Atma
User ID: 117053
8/25/2006 4:48 AM
Re: Tropical Storm ErnestoQuote

Latest update.

000
WTNT45 KNHC 250835
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006

DESPITE WESTERLY SHEAR... THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE
APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
INTENSIFIED NEAR THE CENTER WITH IMPROVING BANDING FEATURES IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS. HOWEVER IF
THE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING
MATERIALIZES IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN... TD FIVE COULD BE A LOT
STRONGER THAN SHOWN BELOW IN THE LATER PERIODS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0900Z 13.4N 65.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 25/1800Z 13.9N 67.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/0600Z 14.8N 70.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 26/1800Z 15.6N 72.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 27/0600Z 16.5N 75.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 28/0600Z 18.5N 79.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 29/0600Z 21.0N 84.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 30/0600Z 23.5N 87.5W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
Fool
User ID: 114731
8/25/2006 4:50 AM
Re: Tropical Storm ErnestoQuote

It's alive!

ahhh
Fool
User ID: 114731
8/25/2006 4:55 AM
Re: Tropical Storm ErnestoQuote

If the storm survives the next couple of days, which will probably be the most dangerous for the storm, at least in its ability to survive... take a look at where it's going to go

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 74266
8/25/2006 7:03 AM
Re: Tropical Storm ErnestoQuote

it is headed for houston, like the dream from the other poster
Kemo
User ID: 65489
8/25/2006 7:36 AM
Re: Tropical Storm ErnestoQuote

this may spike oil prices a bit.
[link to vortex.plymouth.edu]
AJ
User ID: 102035
8/25/2006 8:01 AM
Re: Tropical Storm ErnestoQuote

FYI here's a detailed analysis and a great website: [link to www.thestormtrack.com]
AJ
User ID: 102035
8/25/2006 8:14 AM
Re: Tropical Storm ErnestoQuote

This baby has just formed into a "ball".Look the F out!!!!!! [link to www.baynews9.com] blobr.html
AJ
User ID: 102035
8/25/2006 8:15 AM
Re: Tropical Storm ErnestoQuote

Need more coffee! Try [link to www.baynews9.com]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 125273
8/25/2006 8:54 AM
Re: Tropical Storm ErnestoQuote

Oil facilities will get hit, gas will rise to $3.50-4.00
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 134418
8/25/2006 8:56 AM
Re: Tropical Storm ErnestoQuote

theres always some idiot that likes to make up a cat rating that dosent exist, its annoying..

Yea its going to hit Florida as a CAT 27
Silver Lady
User ID: 135531
8/25/2006 9:35 AM
Re: Tropical Storm ErnestoQuote

Hey,

I'm in Houston...

looks like were finally going to get some action!
Dreamer
User ID: 135542
8/25/2006 10:25 AM
Re: Tropical Storm ErnestoQuote

Silver Lady,

I have some friends living in Houston and an uncle who lives in Frisco.

I'm very serious about this if it hits the gulf and keeps heading west its going to look exactly like the way I dreamt it.

I think this is a chance to warn people ahead of time.

I hope it was only a bad dream!
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 116776
8/25/2006 10:25 AM
Re: Tropical Storm ErnestoQuote

Water temperatures in the Gulf are not as high as last year. Forecast is a cat. 1. for next Wednesday.

Let's keep an eye out.
tard
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 54342
8/25/2006 11:05 AM
Re: Tropical Storm ErnestoQuote

Ernesto Gonzales?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 94432
8/25/2006 11:06 AM
Re: Tropical Storm ErnestoQuote

They are not good with intensity forcasts... and especially more that a day or 2 .... NWS is getting very good at their tracks though.... with the cone of error.... but not more than 5 days out....

This could turn into a huge storm... or it could die out on the way... if it makes it to the gulf... it probably is going to be pretty bad hurricane next week...
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 64455
8/25/2006 11:10 AM
Re: Tropical Storm ErnestoQuote

yes it will be a mother ----er of a hurricane by next week... Cat 3, maybe 4-5- befor it hits Galveston...


scared
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 123644
8/25/2006 11:11 AM
Re: Tropical Storm ErnestoQuote

They are not good with intensity forcasts... and especially more that a day or 2 .... NWS is getting very good at their tracks though.... with the cone of error.... but not more than 5 days out....

This could turn into a huge storm... or it could die out on the way... if it makes it to the gulf... it probably is going to be pretty bad hurricane next week...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 94432



I agree with you on the intesity aspect. you just can't predict the cat this soon. before katrina hit about 5 or 6 days before, the forecasters said it would just fizzle out when it reached the gulf. and they were dead wrong.
SHR
User ID: 134935
8/25/2006 11:51 AM
Re: Tropical Storm ErnestoQuote

They are not good with intensity forcasts... and especially more that a day or 2 .... NWS is getting very good at their tracks though.... with the cone of error.... but not more than 5 days out....

This could turn into a huge storm... or it could die out on the way... if it makes it to the gulf... it probably is going to be pretty bad hurricane next week...



I agree with you on the intesity aspect. you just can't predict the cat this soon. before katrina hit about 5 or 6 days before, the forecasters said it would just fizzle out when it reached the gulf. and they were dead wrong.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 123644

[link to www.osdpd.noaa.gov]

My prediction is a strong cat 2 / cat 3 entering the gulf tuesday night. Just have to see if that westerly shear can hammer it some before hand, it looks like it very well could be the first major of the season. Gulf coast needs to keep a sharp eye on it.
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