2015 Hawaii Hurricane Season Thread: Cat 2 JIMENA going to slam the islands?!?!! Update bottom page 9

Yeah AEMI takes it right into warmer waters South, then heads straight for Kauai "iniki-ish!":

[link to www.prh.noaa.gov]

Watch out all on Kauai "IF" it does this (AEMI track). Our guess is as good as theirs at this point it seems! Haha
it does seem to be more an "art" than a "science". We are just NOT in control of nature...

CAT 2 NOW!!

[link to www.prh.noaa.gov]

Hitting Puna on BI! As a TD tho. We'll see! 11 am discussion not up yet.

Taking longer than usual to update their discussion and advisories. Hmmmmm....

It's not following the original projected path. Staying more south. Take a look at the computer models.

Overcast, and soooooooo muggy and still on windward Oahu right now. Our trades feel gone....?Hilda?....

I know! What does it meeaaannn!?!?

according to the discussion below, the faster she weakens, the more westerly she will steer - keeping her in warmer waters and on the more southern route



If Hilda were to remain a
strong and deep system...her track would likely to be influenced by
steering flow through a deeper layer of the atmosphere. That would
mean a more northerly track. The weaker and shallower Hilda
becomes...the more its track will be influenced by the trade-wind
flow in the lower part of the atmosphere. That would give Hilda a
more westerly track.

The models are showing good agreement on an accelerating weakening
trend as Hilda encounters southwest shear near 40 kt due to a
subtropical jet stream south of a tropical upper tropospheric
trough or TUTT. The models are increasingly good agreement on Hilda
taking a more westerly track as it weakens. I have shifted the
track a bit further to the left...closer to the model consensus...
while continuing a steady weakening.

[link to www.wunderground.com]

I look forward to rain, but no Hurricane!

Global wind patterns (animated)

[link to earth.nullschool.net]

Down to 100 mph but still a cat 2

forecast track again moved further south

Bumping to south of BI over warmer waters.

[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

Interesting

CPHC/NOAA as Hilda hitting the BI as a tropical depression but the Navy is showing it remaining a Tropical Storm - 63 mph and still, after passing across the southern portion of the island at 40 mph

[link to www.usno.navy.mil]

Well poo! They are running late with posting the 11pm discussion update and I'm getting sleepy

she's still holding steady at 100mph - cat 2

Down to cat 1 but still heading more west than expected and the computer models are showing a southern path.

Well hmmmm.....I guess we're not out of the woods yet


The 0600z run of the GFS offered a dramatically different track and
intensity solution than previous runs...with a much weaker Hilda
moving nearly due west over the next 3 days and passing well south
of The Big Island by Tuesday night or Wednesday. This contradicts
ECMWF guidance...which shows a fairly weak Hilda moving northwest
over windward waters of the Hawaiian islands before eventually
moving west near Kauai towards the end of the week. This recent
divergence in solutions from some of the more reliable track models
is likely due to differences in the depth of the forecast
circulation...and leads to decreased confidence in the official
track forecast. With the somewhat dramatic changes noted in recent
model runs...the updated track forecast offers little change from
the previous.

The intensity forecast also contains little significant change from
the previous...with strong vertical wind shear leading to a
significant weakening of the cyclone through the forecast period.
The weakening trend in the official forecast is not as rapid as
indicated by SHIPS...but still anticipates that Hilda will weaken to
a tropical storm on Tuesday...similar to the ivcn consensus.

Although the current forecast brings Hilda near The Big Island as a
tropical depression later this week...uncertainty remains as to the
eventual impacts that may be felt in the Hawaiian islands. Interests
in Hawaii should closely monitor the progress of Hilda...and a
tropical storm watch may be required for The Big Island later today
or tonight. It is important not to focus too closely on the exact
track and intensity forecasts because average intensity errors are
near 35 mph on day 5...and average track errors are near 175 miles.
In addition...The Hazards of a tropical cyclone can extend over a
broad area away from the center.

[link to www.wunderground.com]

Mahoney for keeping us updated Rev! Been getting the kids ready and off to school!

This hurricane is a roller coaster ride--they seem way more uncertain of what it's really going to do than others!

Mahoney= Mahalo!! Haha! Auto correct. ...

Good morning Paradise!

Yeah, they don't seem to know - concerning because that is the way I've heard the Iniki forcasting described.

LOL! My autocorrect kept trying to change forcasting to fircasting (whatever that is!)

Yeah me too...

And good morning to you as well! Thanks for all your updates yesterday and today--I was too busy yesterday to post much!

I have things to go do today far from Internet access but I'm going to try and wait for the 11am update before leaving.

I'm also waiting for the 8:00 am new multi-track model to be put up-- it's the 18Z model for Aug 10:

[link to www.tropicaltidbits.com]

Last Edited by Aloha Nui Loa on 08/10/2015 03:59 PM

track changed again - now they have the center of the cone barely brushing by the southern tip of the BI

still waiting for discussion update

Just saw that... and now they have it approaching the tip as a TS, not a TD. This is nuts watching this thing and their "fore casts!"

And here's the updated (8am HST) multi-track model and intensity graph:

[link to www.tropicaltidbits.com]

[link to www.tropicaltidbits.com]

Hope you have a pleasant outing today Rev! ;)

and, they now show it hitting the BI as a tropical storm and not just a depression

edit: LOL! we posted the same thing at the same time!

Last Edited by Rev Woo-Woo on 08/10/2015 05:04 PM