Asteroid 2015HR182

did it hit yet??

They want us to read the thread. No questions ;-)

We're all DOOMED!

10/13/2015 1+1+3+2+1+5=13 ..the day of the gods.

So just MAN UP and point your telescope at the sun and look for it!

It'll only burn your eyes for a second...

10+13+2015=2038 ---- 20+38=58 ---- 5+8=13


10+13+2015=2038 ---- 2+3+8=13

...double

Last Edited by Thisismyusername on 10/13/2015 11:13 AM

It actually shows the closest approach tomorrow...

System time: 2015/10/14
NEO distance to Sun 1.017 in AU
NEO distance to Earth 0.047 in AU

using this model :

[link to neo.ssa.esa.int]


tomorrow actually has the "closest" miss distance.

Interesting, thanks
Does it give a time?
CERN is on break until Wednesday morning Geneva - about 12 hours from now. Often these breaks are followed by a big jump in progress or a new capability.
The "debate" is in 9 hours

I did not see a time, just saw that the closest distance using that model is actually tomorrow, not today,..... soooooooo...


ON?!?!

Care to chime in Dr astro

[link to www.allskycam.com]

anyone paying attention to some of these SkyCams?

From the other thread Russia lowered it's miss distance….

If they are lowering miss distances, then how is 2015HR182 still lost? Wouldn't it have to be found to have any new data from which to modify a trajectory?

Different orbit determinations will have different nominal orbits. There is no new data, it's still lost.

So what's your take on it astro

Actually if you were referring to this post, no, Russia didn't even "lower the miss distance."

So Dr. Astro you think they are just looking at the original observations and perhaps using a different model to predict? Like an economist would update a data set if they realized a different distribution was more appropriate than a normal distribution to describe the possibilities of outcomes?

Also, does the fact that we can't see it yet it is supposed to be pretty close change anything by itself? If it's hidden by the sun at this point, doesn't that imply new information, although maybe imprecise information?

Nope, not really. It doesn't tell us anything on its own. It was supposed to be hidden by the sun anyway, and we can't assume that all possible positions farther from the sun were actually observed.

Based on my analysis of the data, if it's on an earth-impacting trajectory (which is possible but exceedingly unlikely), the impact will occur on about October 22nd. More to come.

Last Edited by Astromut on 10/13/2015 01:40 PM

In short, how did you come up with your analysis Dr.Astro?

Oh Dear,...

This doesn't look good.

Astro posting a possible date of impact????

I've seen it all now.


Z

Last Edited by zacksavage on 10/13/2015 07:49 PM

To be fair he did say "IF IT's ON AN EARTH Impacting trajectory...."

And I am willing to bet the "IF" is a biggggggg "If"



But I am curious as to how he came to this conclusion.

Last Edited by Thisismyusername on 10/13/2015 02:26 PM

So am i

[link to merriott-astro.co.uk]

Is this is 4 frames down on the left????

Well unfortunately there's nothing "short" about it, but I'll do my best to explain it in a video shortly. It'll make more sense when presented graphically, but in short I ran a series of Monte Carlo solutions for the asteroid's orbit in order to determine the uncertainty region and see where that region might overlap with earth's position. I then displayed those solutions with ORSA to determine the intersection and timing between the region and earth.

The uncertainty region is now huge since this asteroid was only observed over two nights by a single observatory months ago. In fact the possible positions of the asteroid collectively form a large curved region of space all around earth, so depending on where it actually is in that region the date of closest approach and distance of closest approach can vary wildly. Earth passes through this curved region on October 22nd, so if it is on an earth-impact trajectory, that is when it will hit us. I looked briefly and it seemed that it would indeed currently be somewhere between earth and the sun if that is its course, so we would have no way to know or detect it right now. But given the incredible size of the uncertainty region, earth is just a tiny speck on this huge curved region on October 22nd, so that is why the odds of impact are very low. Chances are it will be very far from earth at closest approach, but we just don't have any way to rule out the tiny possibility of an impact.

Last Edited by Astromut on 10/13/2015 04:57 PM

No. That looks like an airplane to me. The dashed lines are its strobe lights as it flies overhead.