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| 05:56 PM | ||
| Users Online Now: 2,134 (Who's On?) | Visitors Today: 1,524,264 | |
| Pageviews Today: 2,211,087 | Threads Today: 605 | Posts Today: 12,212 |
| 05:56 PM | ||
Economic Doom 101 (or why it's all going to CARSH) | |
| Mr. Cynic Offer Upgrade  User ID: 67244533  United States01/06/2016 11:03 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Post 2008 MB (monetary base) is almost exponentially higher than ever. All the QE has led to a massive glut of money. [link to research.stlouisfed.org (secure)] But you ain't got it and neither do I. The money isn't moving, it's sitting in the big boys vaults. The Velocity of M2 Money Stock is at historic lows. The money isn't changing hands, it was printed to make the rich even richer. [link to research.stlouisfed.org (secure)] Shipping is dead in the water with barely a pulse [link to www.dryships.com] And this is with the scrapping rate (retiring of older ships) at an all time high. So the goods ain't moving, as shown by the "good news" of a narrowing U.S. trade gap. [link to www.investing.com] This is known as "bad-news-is-good-news" as the narrowing trade deficit (good news) is a result of imports declining at a slightly higher rate than exports. In other words, money ain't moving and shipping isn't either (bad news). But the trade deficit narrowed. Yay!!! Even with the historic lows for oil, it just isn't making much of a difference. In fact, the low crude prices are increasing defaults and bankruptcies which have a domino effect. But hey, everything is awesome! Right? Also, silver is a strong buy right now (< $14 oz) and lead is always a strong buy, particularly when coupled with casing, powder and primer.  Last Edited by Mr. Cynic on 01/06/2016 11:16 AM Above all things avoid cowardice for it makes men liars. ~ C.H. Spurgeon |
| Mr. Cynic (OP) User ID: 67244533 United States01/06/2016 11:19 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | These are all front edge indicators along with movement of freight in the U.S. It's down as well BTW [link to www.aar.org (secure)] [link to www.aar.org (secure)] If the trains ain't moving it, it ain't moving. Above all things avoid cowardice for it makes men liars. ~ C.H. Spurgeon |
| Mr. Cynic (OP) User ID: 67244533 United States01/06/2016 11:22 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Also, U.S. manufacturing is down. Factory orders fell for three out of the last four months. [link to www.investing.com] Above all things avoid cowardice for it makes men liars. ~ C.H. Spurgeon |
| Mr. Cynic (OP) User ID: 67244533 United States01/06/2016 11:23 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Looking for a bright spot but I'm not seeing it. Sure the DOW keeps making and losing billions, but that is a speculative market that is barely tied to any real, brass tacks industry. Above all things avoid cowardice for it makes men liars. ~ C.H. Spurgeon |
| Mr. Cynic (OP) User ID: 67244533 United States01/06/2016 11:28 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I know it isn't rocket science, the signs are out there but so many people look at the DOW as if it's a leading indicator. It isn't, it's a trailing indicator. When things go south, the market follows and that's usually when the masses stir from their Kardashian slumber and say, "WTF? Huh?" Above all things avoid cowardice for it makes men liars. ~ C.H. Spurgeon |
| Mr. Cynic (OP) User ID: 67244533 United States01/06/2016 11:33 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Mr. Cynic (OP) User ID: 67244533 United States01/06/2016 11:39 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| 1* Semper Fi User ID: 68653640 United States01/06/2016 11:40 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Mr. Cynic (OP) User ID: 67244533 United States01/06/2016 11:41 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Yes, there are crickets because everyone is tired of hearing it and they are just waiting. Waiting waiting waiting........ Quoting: 1* Semper Fi All good and important info but still they are waiting....... Thx. You're probably right (I hope). Prepare and wait I suppose. Above all things avoid cowardice for it makes men liars. ~ C.H. Spurgeon |
| Hugh G. Wreckshun User ID: 5917739 United States01/06/2016 11:46 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | This is why the Fed raising rates is such a BS move. If they DIDN'T raise, the markets would get the idea that the Fed didn't trust the STRENGTH of the ECONOMIC RECOVERY. The notion that there is an economic recovery is a lie to begin with, but if the Fed didn't raise it would mean the Fed didn't buy in to the lie. But since there is NO recovery, all the Fed did was to increase costs to small businesses (which live on borrowed money) thereby hurting the economy even more. 0bama has had seven years to test his Marxist/Keynesian ideas and it has done nothing but fuck us. Keynesian economic theory is to economics what witchcraft is to medicine and this is the result (a languishing economy). And in the midst of all this, we have a president who can talk about nothing but nonexistent global warming and gun control - and he's learned from John Boehner how to cry on camera, too. How pathetic. Hugh G. Wreckshun |
| Mr. Cynic (OP) User ID: 67244533 United States01/06/2016 11:54 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | This is why the Fed raising rates is such a BS move. If they DIDN'T raise, the markets would get the idea that the Fed didn't trust the STRENGTH of the ECONOMIC RECOVERY. The notion that there is an economic recovery is a lie to begin with, but if the Fed didn't raise it would mean the Fed didn't buy in to the lie. Quoting: Hugh G. Wreckshun But since there is NO recovery, all the Fed did was to increase costs to small businesses (which live on borrowed money) thereby hurting the economy even more. 0bama has had seven years to test his Marxist/Keynesian ideas and it has done nothing but fuck us. Keynesian economic theory is to economics what witchcraft is to medicine and this is the result (a languishing economy). And in the midst of all this, we have a president who can talk about nothing but nonexistent global warming and gun control - and he's learned from John Boehner how to cry on camera, too. How pathetic. A lot of truth in that. Although there was a LOT of QE going on, the money didn't move much because there was little profit in it. The Fed was in a catch .22 situation. Raise the rates to get the money moving, or watch it all sit like a stagnate manure pond. They raised the rates too little, too late, but just enough to put a bullet in the head of the economy. And don't even get me started on the climate change B.S. =P Above all things avoid cowardice for it makes men liars. ~ C.H. Spurgeon |
| Hugh G. Wreckshun User ID: 5917739 United States01/06/2016 11:58 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | This is why the Fed raising rates is such a BS move. If they DIDN'T raise, the markets would get the idea that the Fed didn't trust the STRENGTH of the ECONOMIC RECOVERY. The notion that there is an economic recovery is a lie to begin with, but if the Fed didn't raise it would mean the Fed didn't buy in to the lie. Quoting: Hugh G. Wreckshun But since there is NO recovery, all the Fed did was to increase costs to small businesses (which live on borrowed money) thereby hurting the economy even more. 0bama has had seven years to test his Marxist/Keynesian ideas and it has done nothing but fuck us. Keynesian economic theory is to economics what witchcraft is to medicine and this is the result (a languishing economy). And in the midst of all this, we have a president who can talk about nothing but nonexistent global warming and gun control - and he's learned from John Boehner how to cry on camera, too. How pathetic. A lot of truth in that. Although there was a LOT of QE going on, the money didn't move much because there was little profit in it. The Fed was in a catch .22 situation. Raise the rates to get the money moving, or watch it all sit like a stagnate manure pond. They raised the rates too little, too late, but just enough to put a bullet in the head of the economy. And don't even get me started on the climate change B.S. =P The money didn't move not only because there isn't much profit in it, but also because of Dodd-Frank. The feds put such a tight leash on banks that they can't even make many loans - even if they wanted to. A local banker I know (who just quit the industry) recently told me he spent 60% of his time dealing with the feds and only has 40% left over to be a banker. He said they've made it nearly impossible to do business. Hugh G. Wreckshun |
| Mr. Cynic (OP) User ID: 67244533 United States01/06/2016 12:09 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | A lot of truth in that. Although there was a LOT of QE going on, the money didn't move much because there was little profit in it. The Fed was in a catch .22 situation. Raise the rates to get the money moving, or watch it all sit like a stagnate manure pond. They raised the rates too little, too late, but just enough to put a bullet in the head of the economy. And don't even get me started on the climate change B.S. =P The money didn't move not only because there isn't much profit in it, but also because of Dodd-Frank. The feds put such a tight leash on banks that they can't even make many loans - even if they wanted to. A local banker I know (who just quit the industry) recently told me he spent 60% of his time dealing with the feds and only has 40% left over to be a banker. He said they've made it nearly impossible to do business. Interesting. Thanks for that insight. Above all things avoid cowardice for it makes men liars. ~ C.H. Spurgeon |
| SteamrolledGobias User ID: 67238830 United States01/06/2016 12:38 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Mr. Cynic (OP) User ID: 67244533 United States01/06/2016 12:46 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | OP how do the derivatives play into this? Quoting: SteamrolledGobias Is the derivatives market still in existence? How do we know who's taking those bets and how much they're worth? I don't know shit about derivatives except to say they are all made up junk. I don't think anyone knows about derivatives. You have people selling shares of shit that's borrowed from some other concocted monetized unicorn's ass. That's a derivative; a Ponzi concoction. Pure phoniness. So people who borrow or lend against them are sniffing glue. Above all things avoid cowardice for it makes men liars. ~ C.H. Spurgeon |
| Mr. Cynic (OP) User ID: 70431744 United States01/06/2016 06:51 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | As far as derivatives go, here is some more information. Derivatives are financial vehicles with no intrinsic value. Their "worth" is derived (derivative) from the performance of other things. A derivative can be created out of thin air based on any sort of speculative scenario. It's a huge risk and the risk is based on so many interwoven particulars depending on what the derivative is. Many banks have dozens more times exposure to the derivatives than they do assets. There are $710 trillion dollars in derivatives floating out there. Many are poorly founded. I think I heard the figure that J.P. Morgan has about a $40 trillion dollar exposure to derivatives and about $47 Billion in assets. [link to www.abc.net.au] Instead of reforming things in 2008 to make OTC derivatives less dangerous and complex, it has only gotten worse. The great Ponzi derivative market is a house of cards waiting to crash. [link to www.newsmax.com] Derivatives are so deeply embedded in other financial vehicles that when the $710 trillion dollar bubble pops, it will take a lot with it. Last Edited by Mr. Cynic on 01/06/2016 06:55 PM Above all things avoid cowardice for it makes men liars. ~ C.H. Spurgeon |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 50280976 United States01/06/2016 07:07 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Mr. Cynic (OP) User ID: 70431744 United States01/06/2016 08:46 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | It's bad out there but it won't crash this year due to elections. The markets are rigged, you should know better. They won't let the fire burn out of control before an election, it will put the manipulators in hot water. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 50280976 If the elecion is your reason why "they" won't let it crash, then what about letting it crash so there won't BE an election? I'm basing things on the belief that TPTB don't have as good a grip on things as they think they do. Maybe it's too complicated for them to keep track of anymore. Above all things avoid cowardice for it makes men liars. ~ C.H. Spurgeon |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 66847852 United States01/06/2016 08:47 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Thread: Asian stocks continue to TANK!!! China just tripped the circuit breaker 3,178.70 -183.14 (-5.45%) Trading stopped? |
| Mr. Cynic (OP) User ID: 70431744 United States01/06/2016 10:06 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Thread: Asian stocks continue to TANK!!! Quoting: Anonymous Coward 66847852 China just tripped the circuit breaker 3,178.70 -183.14 (-5.45%) Trading stopped? Again? Or is it still? Above all things avoid cowardice for it makes men liars. ~ C.H. Spurgeon |
| Mr. Cynic (OP) User ID: 70431744 United States01/06/2016 10:08 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Halcyon Daze User ID: 70077538 United States01/06/2016 10:19 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Mr. Cynic (OP) User ID: 70431744 United States01/06/2016 10:25 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Mr. Cynic (OP) User ID: 70431744 United States01/06/2016 10:40 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Mr. Cynic (OP) User ID: 6710551 United States01/07/2016 04:02 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation |  For relevance today. Baltic Dry Index (BDIY) down another 22 points. Continues its historic downhill run. Now at 445 www.dryships.com/pages/report/.php Market with a -392 skid. www.investing.com Hang on tight. Above all things avoid cowardice for it makes men liars. ~ C.H. Spurgeon |
| Mr. Cynic (OP) User ID: 70431744 United States01/07/2016 05:36 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | But again the DOW and other equities markets are trailing edge indicators. The real news is in the stagnating industrial and commercial output and the collapsing oil industry. Above all things avoid cowardice for it makes men liars. ~ C.H. Spurgeon |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 71123403 United States01/07/2016 05:38 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
