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If this is what this El Nino year looks like then California is screwed. Foercast now is to weaken

 
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 66544502
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01/31/2016 01:05 AM
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If this is what this El Nino year looks like then California is screwed. Foercast now is to weaken
Even though Central and Northern California has seen many more storms and rain days than an average year the amount of rain in the valley and on the coast has been unimpressive. Rainfall has been below average in many areas of Northern and Central California.


Rainfall totals(third column is percent of normal to date)
[link to weather.sfgate.com]



El Nino forecast
[link to www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov]

"A strong El Niño is expected to gradually weaken through spring 2016, and to transition to ENSO-neutral during late spring or early summer."



One silver lining is we've received a lot of snow in the Sierra. I'm not sure how much above avergae it is but that is the most important thing for us out here.

If El Nino is basically over then this sucks because we desperately need the next 3 months to be above average.

Does anyone have links to any long range(3 months) forecasts for California?
Factual Error

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01/31/2016 01:06 AM

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Re: If this is what this El Nino year looks like then California is screwed. Foercast now is to weaken
You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.
Not intended to be a factual statement.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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01/31/2016 01:11 AM
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Re: If this is what this El Nino year looks like then California is screwed. Foercast now is to weaken
I guess this is the 3 month outlook but their models have been less than accurate so far

[link to www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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01/31/2016 01:55 AM
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Re: If this is what this El Nino year looks like then California is screwed. Foercast now is to weaken
They are forecasting below average rainfall for most of California NEXT WINTER.

They can't even get next week correct. I think this drought is less mother nature and more big brother

[link to www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 71326053
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01/31/2016 02:13 AM
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Re: If this is what this El Nino year looks like then California is screwed. Foercast now is to weaken
um...

tomorrow (sunday) we begin a CYCLONE with 75 mph winds, lightning, thunder, mudslides, water spouts, etc

we will have 3-6 hrs of nonstop downpour, 20 ft waves, 2 ft of snow in the mountains, and the oceanfront cliff homes in Pacifica will most likely crumble into the ocean.

the storm is a combo cyclone/ atmospheric river, and that is a super gnarly situation.

where on earth did you hear el nino is "weakening"?
it hasn't even started yet....

drevil
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01/31/2016 02:27 AM

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Re: If this is what this El Nino year looks like then California is screwed. Foercast now is to weaken
um...

tomorrow (sunday) we begin a CYCLONE with 75 mph winds, lightning, thunder, mudslides, water spouts, etc

we will have 3-6 hrs of nonstop downpour, 20 ft waves, 2 ft of snow in the mountains, and the oceanfront cliff homes in Pacifica will most likely crumble into the ocean.

the storm is a combo cyclone/ atmospheric river, and that is a super gnarly situation.

where on earth did you hear el nino is "weakening"?
it hasn't even started yet....

drevil
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 71326053


Feb. March = Rain
TRUMPS FAULT
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 66544502
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01/31/2016 02:31 AM
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Re: If this is what this El Nino year looks like then California is screwed. Foercast now is to weaken
um...

tomorrow (sunday) we begin a CYCLONE with 75 mph winds, lightning, thunder, mudslides, water spouts, etc

we will have 3-6 hrs of nonstop downpour, 20 ft waves, 2 ft of snow in the mountains, and the oceanfront cliff homes in Pacifica will most likely crumble into the ocean.

the storm is a combo cyclone/ atmospheric river, and that is a super gnarly situation.

where on earth did you hear el nino is "weakening"?
it hasn't even started yet....

drevil
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 71326053


Are you joking? You must be joking but I'm not sure because there are some homes in danger in Pacifica. Forecast is for a chance of rain and then Starting Feb 1st a dry period with no rain in sight after that.

I think I heard El Nino is weakening from the NOAA forecast from late January. Link is in the OP.

or here
[link to www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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01/31/2016 02:42 AM
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Re: If this is what this El Nino year looks like then California is screwed. Foercast now is to weaken
[link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]

This latest loop look pretty good for California but they are forecasting no rain for Feb 1st-Feb 7th in Central California.

I don't have links to their models. I'm sure they are there somewhere i just haven't looked
Anonymous Coward
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01/31/2016 02:43 AM
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Re: If this is what this El Nino year looks like then California is screwed. Foercast now is to weaken
um...

tomorrow (sunday) we begin a CYCLONE with 75 mph winds, lightning, thunder, mudslides, water spouts, etc

we will have 3-6 hrs of nonstop downpour, 20 ft waves, 2 ft of snow in the mountains, and the oceanfront cliff homes in Pacifica will most likely crumble into the ocean.

the storm is a combo cyclone/ atmospheric river, and that is a super gnarly situation.

where on earth did you hear el nino is "weakening"?
it hasn't even started yet....

drevil
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 71326053


Are you joking? You must be joking but I'm not sure because there are some homes in danger in Pacifica. Forecast is for a chance of rain and then Starting Feb 1st a dry period with no rain in sight after that.

I think I heard El Nino is weakening from the NOAA forecast from late January. Link is in the OP.

or here
[link to www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 66544502



local los angeles news said "Cyclone" sunday, i took notice because we dont usually have those here.

los angeles times said "atmospheric river" hits on sunday.the last time we had one of those was 1998 el nino. i remember that too.

all the ski reports are warning for 2-3ft of snow. we are already over 100% snow pack.

local surf reports say to stay out of the water, and i can see the ocean, its huge surf, and not in a fun way.

i'm not kidding at ALL.
its already 85% humidity at my house in la, i can see moisture in the air, its usually extremely dry even in january.

unless the chemtrail planes dry up this storm overnight, i'm expecting a good storm tomorrow.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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01/31/2016 02:43 AM
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Re: If this is what this El Nino year looks like then California is screwed. Foercast now is to weaken
Wrong link above..This one is entire eastern pacific

[link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 66544502
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01/31/2016 02:47 AM
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Re: If this is what this El Nino year looks like then California is screwed. Foercast now is to weaken
um...

tomorrow (sunday) we begin a CYCLONE with 75 mph winds, lightning, thunder, mudslides, water spouts, etc

we will have 3-6 hrs of nonstop downpour, 20 ft waves, 2 ft of snow in the mountains, and the oceanfront cliff homes in Pacifica will most likely crumble into the ocean.

the storm is a combo cyclone/ atmospheric river, and that is a super gnarly situation.

where on earth did you hear el nino is "weakening"?
it hasn't even started yet....

drevil
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 71326053


Are you joking? You must be joking but I'm not sure because there are some homes in danger in Pacifica. Forecast is for a chance of rain and then Starting Feb 1st a dry period with no rain in sight after that.

I think I heard El Nino is weakening from the NOAA forecast from late January. Link is in the OP.

or here
[link to www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 66544502



local los angeles news said "Cyclone" sunday, i took notice because we dont usually have those here.

los angeles times said "atmospheric river" hits on sunday.the last time we had one of those was 1998 el nino. i remember that too.

all the ski reports are warning for 2-3ft of snow. we are already over 100% snow pack.

local surf reports say to stay out of the water, and i can see the ocean, its huge surf, and not in a fun way.

i'm not kidding at ALL.
its already 85% humidity at my house in la, i can see moisture in the air, its usually extremely dry even in january.

unless the chemtrail planes dry up this storm overnight, i'm expecting a good storm tomorrow.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 71326053


Ok.. Yeah that Storm just passed through Norther\Central Cali and is the last storm in the foreseeable future. Right on Feb 1st the pattern changes. Nature following man made calenders

10 day forecast for L.A
[link to weather.com (secure)]
BunnySwanson

User ID: 64219047
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01/31/2016 02:48 AM
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Re: If this is what this El Nino year looks like then California is screwed. Foercast now is to weaken
It's raining cats and dogs at the moment. The snow up in the mountains will be packed for summer melt. We just need to hope summer is not too hot so snow does not melt faster than the pitiful dams California's infrastructure consists of.

By the way, agriculture, livestock and plants/fruits/trees take a huge amount of water and when shipped off shore, that water goes with them, to become a part of their hopefully modern infrastructure which includes a sewage system and treatment plants. Putting plants down garbage disposal is always a good idea for this reason.

The scam continues with fear and the ever present demand "don't just sit there, do something" from others just sitting there and doing nothing.

Here is some central California rain for ya

[link to weather.com (secure)]
Had a dream long ago which showed me the future and it was not pretty. Been watching closely ever since.
Anonymous Coward
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01/31/2016 02:49 AM
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Re: If this is what this El Nino year looks like then California is screwed. Foercast now is to weaken
heres the local report:

[link to abc7.com]

Heavy downpours, lightning from 10 AM to 7/8PM
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 66544502
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01/31/2016 04:32 AM
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Re: If this is what this El Nino year looks like then California is screwed. Foercast now is to weaken
It's raining cats and dogs at the moment. The snow up in the mountains will be packed for summer melt. We just need to hope summer is not too hot so snow does not melt faster than the pitiful dams California's infrastructure consists of.

By the way, agriculture, livestock and plants/fruits/trees take a huge amount of water and when shipped off shore, that water goes with them, to become a part of their hopefully modern infrastructure which includes a sewage system and treatment plants. Putting plants down garbage disposal is always a good idea for this reason.

The scam continues with fear and the ever present demand "don't just sit there, do something" from others just sitting there and doing nothing.

Here is some central California rain for ya

[link to weather.com (secure)]
 Quoting: BunnySwanson


Yeah, that storm just passed us. It looks like you're going to get a bigger punch from it than we did which is nice. Last storm on the horizon though

go here and click at bottom "5 more" to see 15 day forecast--The first half of Feb is bone dry
[link to weather.com (secure)]

My only fear is we've been in a very strong El Nino pattern since the beginning of the rainy season and it hasn't produced nearly what a strong El Nino usually does. I hope we didn't miss our chance as the the ENSO\El Nino forecast is it is in a weakening stage heading to neutral by end of Spring. Percent of normal rainfall is below average in most cities up and down the State

Snowfall has been amazing though and that's what really matters. Way above normal


The 3 month long range forecast is still for above average rainfall for California.

We could solve this immediately if we did the unthinkable and made another Hetch Hetchy. Yosemite Valley Merced Reservoir(I'll give it a name). I could never support that even though it's the logical thing to do. China, Russia, heck most countries would have already done that.

Thankfully there's no way do that to my favorite National Park in the US.





GLP