Analysis: Russia vs Turkey

Irrational to you. Many Americans don't trust an unvetted Muslim for president.

Russia has an extensive paper army. These are soldiers which are untrained and poorly equipped. Russia's regular army is formidable, but it's reserve component, which is most numerous, is fodder. Their situation is remarkably comparable to WW2 where there weren't enough rifles to go around, and so many unarmed soldiers were tasked with following armed soldiers, in order that they might arm themselves once their comrade falls in battle. I'm not saying that I know their reserve component to lack adequate firearms, but I do know they lack equipment, and much of what they do have is vastly outdated. T-62s and T-64s for instance, which are relics of 1962 and 1964. They also often to lack any formal training whatsoever. Russia appears to have a strategy not dissimilar from Putin's Judo learnings: wear down your opponent with your worst, and if those defenses are defeated, then utilize your best.

As an American, I suspect you could compare it to the US government issuing you a set of woodland BDUs, worn out boots, a moldy canteen, a helmet with busted straps, a rusty M16 that doesn't function consistently, and if you're lucky, an M60 Patton that barely operates. Then, ordering you to hold off the barbarians at the gates. So, don't let the numbers fool you, because I’m certain that you’d be less than confident.

I would be interested to know the situation regarding any nuclear weapons in Turkey though.

Russia should certainly prevail in any conflict against the Turks. However, numbers can be deceiving. Turkey's equipment is generally more modern, and I imagine is generally in superior condition to that of the Russians. You've also gotta consider that Turkey is likely to be inclined to commit a larger percentage of its forces to such a conflict than Russia will desire to commit. Finally, one must consider the objectives. Turkey isn't necessarily inclined to conquer Russia. It'd say they're more likely to be inclined to chase Russia off.

The russia lovers are going to come after you with a vengeance. Trust me. I tried to educate these cretin neanderthal fucks with a paid account and they, like the commie dirtbags they really are at heart, tried to squelch the truth and free speech with negative karma. You will see the results as well. You seem bright so I would direct you to look at the geopolitical side of things that have happened with the ruble, the price of oil and russian ability to deal with such a fall over the past 16 months. This is all about money, propaganda and the current russian dictatorships ability to remain in power when it once again hits the fan for them. Like it did in 1989 and 1998. Then you will really see why russia is in syria and their real desire to somehow, at any cost, reinflate the price of oil.

Another couple of question to add to the pile:

To what extent are the actors controlled by a secret scheming entity?
How much of current events are directly caused by them according to plan, and how much is just them riding the waves and making up shit as they go?
What are the real intentions of this entity?
Is there anywhere an organized opposition that is aware of the entity and that is working to oppose them effectively?
Who are this entity, are they really just Jews all the way to the top, or are Jews stooges and fall guys making up lower levels of their hierarchy?
And perhaps most importantly, is this entity having internal power struggles that threatens to break it apart?

Any analysis that omits the immensely powerful secret entity that operates behind the scenes trying to manage the flow of history is incomplete at best.

The reason I see instability isn't just because Erdogan is a loose cannon. It's because there are many unknown variables, and they seem probable to be unstable.

It is for instance highly probable that the secret entity has internal power struggles, and it is possible that this breaks them apart and snatches defeat from the jaws of victory. They're going all out for the End Game now!

It is a very critical time indeed.

The Turks seem sufficiently frustrated by the situation as to suggest that they suspect their current efforts in Syria won't bring them the strategic victory they're after. They very much seem to perceive the Russians as thwarting their efforts there. If this is the case, then their current strategy of asymmetric warfare in Syria is a failure, and if they intend to succeed, then they must step up their game, which most likely means conventional warfare. The fact of their downing of Russian military aircraft suggests a certain willingness for fight Russia. The fact of their recent remarks on being capable of occupying Russia suggests not only contemplation of such a feat, but belief that war with Russia could lead to a Turkish victory.

If they're contemplating invasion of Russia, then they're contemplating attacking through Georgia. Saudi Arabia's recent remarks suggests contemplation of an incredible battle themselves. This suggest Saudi Arabia and Turkey are forming a coalition of their own, and that Saudi Arabia expects the conflict to be sufficient to potentially warrant nuclear weaponry. This leads me to believe that Saudi Arabia and Turkey are together discussing a large-scale conflict with the intention of routing Russian forces from Syria. If so, we can't expect Turkey to be inclined to concentrate its efforts in Syria, where doing so will mean eventual conflict with the Russians and Iranians there, which would then mean their eastern and north eastern borders would be largely exposed to attack.

So, if an attack along those borders is a strong possibility, adequate defenses must be positioned there. Furthermore, because the bulk of Iranian and Russian strength would likely become concentrated there, it would be prudent to concentrate the bulk of Turkey's strength there, while allowing Saudi Arabia to concentrate on Syria. Furthermore, it would be more advantageous to invade beyond Turkey's borders and to establish a foothold in lands you're less concerned about being devastated than your own, before the Russians have time to mobilize to prevent any such advancement. So, the Turks must advance into Georgia in the early moments of the conflict.

Ultimately it would be advantageous for Turkey to annex Georgia and/or Syria, though I'm not sure that would be feasible in itself. Especially given that I imagine the probable primary objective simply to be to convince Putin that such a war over Syria isn’t worth the hassle. I'm also not entirely sure of what's to be done about Iran or other neighboring countries, such as Greece. It might make sense for Saudi Arabia to reinforce Turkeys eastern and western borders though. At least with RSAF, and at least once Russian forces have been rendered ineffective in Syria.

One must of course consider that Israel is very much motivated to see Assad removed from power, and another vassal government established in the current regimes place. Syria and Israel fought in the First Arab-Israeli War, the Six Day War, the Black September War, the October War, the Lebanese Civil War. Syria has known few foes except for Israel. Israel has been in fact bombing Syria for decades now, including recently. Including in the current conflict. When the Russians arrived in Syria, one of the first things to happen was the Russians chased off the IAF. Then of course, the term "ISIS" has been around since long before recent times. It was the term originally used by western intelligence agencies to describe what we now call MOSSAD. Then, we referred to them as the Israeli Secret Intelligence Service, or ISIS. Just as Al Qaeda is America, ISIS is Israel. What other party had more motivation for the defeat of Assad than Israel anyhow?

This does certainly add weight to the probability of Turkey taking drastic measures to route Russia from Syria.

Last Edited by Navarro on 02/25/2016 02:09 AM

I'm not convinced any any such effort would be terribly effective. It didn't work in Ukraine, and it didn't work in Georgia before that. Why's it going to work in Georgia now? The more reasonable course of action would be to soften Georgia through propaganda and infiltration, but concentrate Turkey's time and resources on the conventional effort. I do expect that MOSSAD and CIA have already very much embedded themselves in Georgia though, and are working to the end that you speak. There are, after all, many potential "moderate rebels" to be armed in Georgia, who are hostile toward Russia. Turkey could be a "liberator," you see. At least, long enough to establish a foothold.

Absolutely. No wiseman ever placed all his eggs in one basket, as it were. Russia will commit only a fraction of its forces to the conflict, and even less if America behaves in a way to cause alerts along Russian territory. If the Russian navy is busy tracking ballistic missile submarines along its coasts, if a larger than usual number of American submarines put out to sea, if a carrier strike group begins redeploying in Russias direction, if American aircraft begin patroling within close proximity to Russian airspace, if America deploys additional ground assets to nations such as Latvia and Estonia, then clearly Russia won't deploy but a miniscule percentage of its forces to Georgia. The effectiveness of this method could be increased by a false flag on an American asset, then leading the Russians to believe America thinks they were involved. It would be a ploy, and I believe Putin would know it, but I don't believe Putin would gamble the fate of the Russian Federation on it.

So, we begin to arrive in such a circumstance where the Turks appear to have a chance at attaining that strategic victory which they seek. If you don't believe the Americans would be willing to behave in that way, then know that Nazi Germany may still exist today if we hadn't fooled the Germans similarly, and the Soviet Union would still be a thing had we not done something similar to them.

Russia have nukes
End of story

So does NK.... russias buddy. Does not mean a fucking thing when they are all detonated over russian airspace when they are launched.

WW3 will not have only 2 sides, there will be three. From the looks the third side will be neutral and defend if attacked.

What I fear is a civil war in the US, because if that happens then We are screwed with defense being minimal due to vast issues in the period.

Russia will pressure Turkey to stand down and not fight, all this is pure speculation. What will need to happen is if all the Muslim countries join together and make it a religious war. Greece joining Russia's side seems the plausible thing. What will be interesting is the stance on most European Nations, the EU will self dismantle if WW3 affects them financially and military wise, let alone the number of fake refugees that act like sleeper cells will cause internal issues.

While the pieces being set, this may be interesting because the news will finally have different angles and opinions to confuse it's viewers. This is a war of information and who to trust. You don't think social media won't get shut down when times get rough? Get real.

Which is precisely why America, NATO and the EU would be wise to utilize foreign assets to achieve the objectives they seek. Turkey and Saudi Arabia will be tasked with doing some very dirty work, especially Turkey. Turkey desperately wanted to join the EU and NATO though. There may be no superior method for securing Syria and installing one of Rothschild's central banks there. At least, not without total war and potential nuclear annihilation.

The New World Order is nearly at hand, but Russia is obstructing progress. That's not to say that Putin opposes the NWO, only that his objectives don't appear immediately in line with the NWO at this time. Which probably implies the conflict is a charade, but possibly not.

An artificial crisis is never the less a crisis. If Turkey has an oil deficit, then it must import sufficient oil to cover that deficit or otherwise resolve the matter. If Russia is obstructing Turkish oil import, then Turkey has a crisis to contend with. During WW2, Japan produced shale to remedy the artificial oil crisis it experienced as a result of the Americans. Still, Japan reasoned that it was necessary to attack America in order improve their energy situation.

gog vs magog

how could it not be

Russia would mop up Turkey and hold the strait for their troops.

Everyone can see this coming anyway because at some point Turkey will try to block the strait.

The south end seems like an excellent position for the Turks to capture early in the conflict, if at all possible. The local indigenous might not be favorable of the Turkish presence, but the Georgian government might be willing to provide assistance given what I read in the article, and given the circumstances of the previous conflict. I wasn't aware of the tunnel, but I had already thought that mountain range would be an excellent position to dig in to repel Russian advancement. The tunnel may even be used to shield Turkish soldiers from the inevitable Russian bombardment, especially being so near the Russian border. The local population, currently supportive of Russia, may be less supportive if their homes are being shelled by their friends to the north. Beyond that, the Turks should be capable of establishing an astounding defense on the south end. So long as the Turks don't attempt to advance through the tunnel themselves, they should have a fighting chance there. It would be inadvisable to enter legitimate Russian territory in any case.

The terrain is difficult along the entirety of the Georgian-Russian border. If the Turks can take those positions early, then they should be able to establish exceptional defense, cutting Russia off from Georgia overall. The north western region near Sochi would, I imagine, be the most problematic. I'm not sure that I think rushing to these positions early on is particularly doable though. If it is, Turkey certainly can't do any more hinting of having their eyes on Georgia, or securing those positions may be impossible.

Would you happen to know which routes the Russians advanced through during the last Georgian conflict? Also, do you believe the Turks would be unable to blitz onto, secure and hold those positions along the border, including the southern end of Roki Tunnel?

Seems like wishful thinking. Iran actually wouldn't likely advance. As it could bring Israel and others down on them. They wouldn't be free to do as they pleased as op seems to be implying. Russia would very much be on their own most likely. As would Turkey.

The wild cards would be the countries helping covertly and how much damage they could do. For instance Ukraine would become live very quickly further stretching Russias resources and adding another front.

Nukes won't happen. No one will drop just one nuke these days. Whoever does it first will pay dearly for it. That's just reality.

The most likely scenario is most back off and let them go at it. All major players anyways. Otherwise it will all spin out of control quickly. The US will just use it as an excuse to finish off Assad and NATO will just move more resources into the Ukraine.

My posts are entirely too long for "the Russia lovers" to read enough of them to become upset in the first place. I'm not concerned about Karma anyhow. It's nice when someone "likes" when I've said, but means nothing if I'm "a shill" or a "butt-head" or whatever the term may be. I've been on GLP since not only the beginning of "karma" with this account, but the beginning of the website with my previous. Long enough to know an ineffable thing or two about this website which most users today would be shocked to be made aware of. Yet, so few of the types you describe have read enough of what I say to feel compelled to assess any karma.

When I was younger, I very much liked the ideas of Communism and Socialism, but the fact is that neither work. They're great stories to tell the kids at bedtime, but in practice they don't stand up to capitalism, and these days I only bet on things I can win. Communism nor Socialism appear to lead to corruption in a way greater than Capitalism does, but capitalism is the stronger, and nature prefers the stronger. The real issue has always been the one percent, not the economic system anyhow. I'm convinced that we could have a Capitalist-Libertarian Utopia more easily than anything else, other than the current situation, but the enemies of the people must be vanquished before that can happen, and Plato's "Philosopher Kings" must rise into prominence in order to prevent The Allegory of the Cave from continuing to consume us. This, however, will never come to pass.

I'm aware of the circumstances surrounding the oil prices and as a consequence, the ruble. While everyone was celebrating the falling fuel prices, I was wondering how long OPEC could hold out, and what Putin's response would be. It shocked me that the NWO would pursue this route with Putin, given that he is or was among them. I still don't fully understand the situation. What would you say are Putin's objectives in Syria? It seems unlikely to me that Putin means to stifle Syrian oil export as a means for raising prices, unless doing so is part of a much greater strategy reaching far beyond Syria. I'm not seeing that though. Nor do I see the PRC being particularly supportive of such an effort. The Chinese seek oil for internal usage. Cheaper rates at the rigs should only benefit them. Am I missing something?

Russia:
7,700 nuclear weapons.

Turkey
0 nuclear weapons.

One persons independent OSINT research and analysis would make answering these questions several lifetimes work. In my opinion, understanding precisely "who" is less important than reflecting on "why" anyhow. Someone once said "to be unknown is to be unconquerable," but the greater truth is in the statement "to be misunderstood is to misdirect." The Brazilians once defeated their oligarchs without having even recognized who they were or what they were doing precisely. Afterward, they simply installed new oligarchs because of that. If the people can't comprehend the issue, then the barbarians will install their own overlords every time, and with haste. Control of education and the media are key to any lasting success against the order, and the campaign will last entire generations. The average IQ has been dropping since victorian times for a reason, and you can't convince the stupid and the brainwashed in a day.

Don't take this to imply that individuals like Alex Jones are the saviors of the people though. Individuals such as himself are counter intelligence, or controlled opposition. He is everything which he outwardly opposes, hence why he and those like him constantly announce that revolution would only play into the hands of the oligarchy. Yes, surely removing the oligarchs from power, or existence, is exactly what they're hoping for. While I can't imagine a revolution would have a lasting effect at this time, reconditioning the masses over generations would inevitably lead to and require such a conflict. I don't see how this is achievable from our current position though. I see little hope for humanity, but I'm no humanitarian so this is inconsequential to me. Rest assured though that figures like Alex Jones are merely preaching to the choir, while making the choir look line psychotic fools to any passerbys. Meanwhile, he keeps the choir manageable.

Yes, I recognize that the analysis is incomplete. I also recognize that power struggles within the order are to be expected. For this reason I've wondered if Putin might be acting to consolidate his own power through these events. It outwardly appears as though Putin is attempting to obstruct the NWO from establishing a Rothschild central bank and vassal government in Syria. Putin has also made various efforts to befriend America, which reminds me of Hitler's actions toward the UK. I think Hitler was vaguely aware of the oligarchy and his lack of understanding of the issue was his downfall. Similarly, I wonder if the same can be said for Putin. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that I think Hitler was a good guy, nor that I think Putin is. I only observe that the two appear to conflict with the oligarchs, while simultaneously attempting to smooth things over with them. Some examples would be when Hitler allowed the British to retreat from France when he could have destroyed them then and there, or when Putin asked to aid America in Afghanistan following 9/11 and then again asked to aid America in Syria. I don't think Hitler nor Putin understood the actual motivations of their adversaries when they did these things.

Never the less, somewhere among these posts I did remark that I expect the oligarchy is developing the situation for the eventual purpose of ejecting Russia from the region, in order that they might install their NWO systems in Syria and Iran. I'll point out though that perceived instability and actual instability are two completely different things. There are many variables at play, as you said, but just because you and I don't have solutions for those variables doesn't mean that they're not adequately controlled and understood by the order. They've gotten this far: they know what they're doing. One doesn't run five miles without being able to stay on their feet for the last hundred yards.

Your analysis lacks sense thats why noone is replying. I only needed to read two sentences. I suggest you at least look at the map, where Georgia is located, and why noone ever invaded Russia through Georgia aka impassable mountain ridge. If Turkey invades Georgia that would be a dream come true for the Russians and they will laugh their asses off.

As for the actual "war" it will last at most a day, Turkey's military assets will be targeted by a guided missile spam, and if Turkey doesnt surrender within an hour the next missile salvo will be nuclear, and i'm not saying this just to show that Russia has the "I_win" button, it will simply shorten the process. All of Turkey is within ballistic missile range(heck the whole world is). The guided missiles actually circumvented Turkey to reach Syria, targeting Turkey will be a piece of cake, just water in the way. Russia will not even have to do anything, as (very likely) Black Sea coastal defenses will be enough to totally wreck Turkey.

This isnt WW2.

I'd say plenty have replied considering there's two pages, and considering that all of my posts beyond the original two are replies. I'm aware of Georgia's topography. At one point in this thread I discussed the issue of the Caucasus Mountains and concluded that range and limited roadways to and from Russia along it, could provide excellent positions for Turkey to capture and hold in order to attempt to repel a Russian ground offensive. However, I went into more detail than that. You apparently missed that discussion, which would imply that you're speaking in ignorance. That, I'd say, is what doesn't make sense.

The obvious purpose of such an attack by the Turks wouldn't likely be to actually invade Russia itself, but I suppose that escaped you.

Turkey is losing the civil war with the Kurds in their own country. They are not going to invade anyone. Every country in the middle east has a superior military to Turkey except Saudi Arabia. No way they are going to invade Russia, the number one military in the world.

Russia just needs to get its subs to pop up on us as coast and turn it to glass along with isreal , Saudi Arabia and the U.K. ... As I stand here melting il be a happy man Russia did the right thing

I'm not the first one to point out that glaring lack of sense. But you just managed to top it off by suggesting Russia would want to attack through Georgia, which, for exactly the same reasons will not happen. I dont even want to know where you get the idea that Turkey is free to annex countries at will.

Neither do you realize that should Turkey invade Georgia the Russians will not laugh their asses off just because its a dead-end, and contrary to what you seem to think the logistical problems will be anything but a "non-issue", while they are turning Ankara into rubble. But because invading Georgia will break every international law out there and Russia will be free to do anything. Just like it happened in 2008 in the same country with exact the same reasoning. In short you have no idea what you are talking about.

Russia is nearing bankruptcy and cannot afford a long, extensive war. Tactical nukes will be used against advancing Turkish forces early in the war. And if Saudi-Arabia joins Turkey, that will really be jackpot for Kreml, because then Russia has legal grounds for an assault on Saudi-Arabia's economic infrastructure, it's oil fields and production facilities. The rice of oil will return to $100 a barrel and Russia can pay it's bill again.

Game over, Turkey-tards.

Turkey's hardware is Western, Turkey has no control over it, in case it suddenly stops working. And it will, should they start annexing countries for no reason and give Russia reasons to annex the Bosporus.

So all these hardware comparisons are kinda off. Turkey cant move a finger on its own. At least not for long and certainly not long enough to stop witnessing guided missiles clouding the skies on a daily basis. (and praying its not nuclear this time)

Last Edited by rekinom8 on 02/25/2016 08:44 AM

Turkey wouldn't stand a chance if the tried to attack Russia...they could only win if Russia attacked Turkey and the allies jumped in...