The Path to Convention Chaos
If Trump loses Florida or Ohio, the GOP’s set for a quagmire in Cleveland. Here’s how it happens.If Trump can win both states, he’s on a glide path to earning a majority of delegates ahead of the July 18 convention. The only way to dethrone him at that point would be for the GOP to throw out its existing convention rules. A move that dramatic won’t happen. It would divide and destroy a party that has always prided itself on adhering to rules.
But if Trump doesn’t win both states, the GOP is likely to find itself in Cleveland with no candidate above the 1,237-delegate majority needed to claim the nomination. If that happens, the Republican Party’s own rules lock in a quagmire in Cleveland—and likely a multi-ballot, no-holds-barred convention.
While Trump is the frontrunner, he has won only about 44 percent of the delegates awarded in states that have voted so far. By comparison, Mitt Romney had won 56 percent of the delegates at this point in the 2012 primary; he became the presumptive GOP nominee in mid-April and secured a majority of delegates in late May.
If Trump maintains his current rate of 44 percent, he will go into Cleveland with just 1,088 of the 2,472 total delegates—149 short of the 1,237 needed for a majority.Rather than a wholesale rewriting of the rules, the more likely scenario is that
if Trump goes into the convention without a majority, he will need to convince enough of the few unbound delegates there to support him. (The unbound delegates consists of those from five states that decided not to hold statewide votes, as well as 54 from Pennsylvania who were directly elected without declaring a presidential preference.) That approach is consistent with the existing rules—but it won’t be easy. In fact, it could lead to convention mayhem.
As things stand now, however, Trump would need to win over a dauntingly high portion of the 166 unbound delegates—nearly 90 percent—in order to get the 149 delegates he would need to reach an overall majority. And many of these unbound delegates are likely to be supporters of candidates Trump has defeated, and could have a less-than-kind view of him.If Trump does not get a majority of delegates on the first ballot, the rules make his hunt for a majority even more difficult on the second ballot. At that point, nearly three-quarters of the delegates—more than 1,800 of the 2,472—become instantly unbound. They are free agents who can vote for any nominated candidate, with no obligation to Trump even if he won their particular state. The national convention has no authority to amend these binding rules because they are set by each state, and the deadline for states to change their rules has passed.
On the third and subsequent ballots, things would get really unpredictable. Not only would even more delegates become unbound; the current rules also do not require the candidate with the smallest number of votes to drop out, meaning the deadlock can last for endless ballots until a remaining candidate bends.
The painful reality for the candidates is that they actually have very little say in this process, which varies greatly from state to state. Just over a quarter of the total delegates are picked directly by the candidates who win specific states. But under the fierce federalism practiced by the Republican Party, about
73 percent of the delegates—those in 44 of the 56 states and territories—will be chosen by state conventions or executive committees consisting of local activists, volunteers and elected officials. State conventions or committees may or may not select as delegates people who personally support the candidate they are bound to vote for on the first ballot.In 2012, the convention rules committee considered an amendment to give the candidates more say in picking individual delegates. That amendment (which I supported as a member of the committee) was soundly defeated.
State GOP officials made clear they wanted to be able to pick the people who worked hardest for, or gave the most money to, the state parties. They feared candidates would reward their supporters at the expense of party regulars.Delegate selection also matters for more than just who the nominee is. Even delegates who are bound to specific candidates on the presidential roll call vote are not required to follow those candidates’ wishes for votes on party rules, challenges over which individuals from a state should be seated as its delegates, the party platform or any procedural matter to come before the convention, including the choice of a vice president or who should be the chair of the convention.
Even though this year’s primary is far more competitive, the 2012 convention proves just how important delegate selection can be. Ron Paul made a surprisingly strong showing at that convention thanks to a disciplined state convention strategy. In Iowa, Paul had finished third in the caucus vote, yet he earned 22 of the 28 votes at the convention in Tampa. In Minnesota, he had finished second in the statewide vote, yet he earned 33 of 40 delegate votes on the first convention ballot. Paul failed to get enough support to be considered in the nomination, which ended his candidacy at the convention. But his delegate maneuverings were enough to spook the Romney campaign at least briefly.
This state-by-state effort only intensifies at the convention, as the campaigns try to build floor whip teams to keep track of all those delegates and be sure their loyalties aren’t swayed in the weeks and hours leading up to votes in Cleveland.
In a convention going beyond one ballot, this task will become all-consuming. With so many delegates becoming unbound after the first ballot, campaigns will need both data and human interaction of unprecedented sophistication in order to know each delegate’s true loyalties, whom they might listen to as they vote and what positions on what issues most motivate them.<50%
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