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New Forecast: Severe Space Storm Headed to Earth
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theresident 
User ID: 169263
12/13/2006 4:15 PM
Report abusive post | New Forecast: Severe Space Storm Headed to Earth
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Editor's Note: This forecast replaces the predictive aspects of this earlier story on the solar flare.
Space weather forecasters revised their predictions for storminess after a major flare erupted on the Sun overnight threatening damage to communication systems and power grids while offering up the wonder of Northern Lights.
"We're looking for very strong, severe geomagnetic storming" to begin probably around mid-day Thursday, Joe Kunches, Lead Forecaster at the NOAA Space Environment Center, told SPACE.com this afternoon.
The storm is expected to generate aurora or Northern Lights, as far south as the northern United States Thursday night. Astronauts aboard the International Space Station are not expected to be put at additional risk, Kunches said.
Radio communications, satellites and power grids could face potential interruptions or damage, however.
Solar flares send radiation to Earth within minutes. Some are also accompanied by coronal mass ejections (CME), clouds of charged particles that arrive in a day or two. This flare unleashed a strong CME that's aimed squarely at Earth.
"It's got all the rights stuff," Kunches said.
However, one crucial component to the storm is unknown: its magnetic orientation. If it lines up a certain way with Earth's magnetic field, then the storm essentially pours into our upper atmosphere. If the alignment is otherwise, the storm can pass by the planet with fewer consequences.
Kunches and his team are advising satellite operators and power grid managers to keep an eye on their systems. In the past, CMEs have knocked out satellites and tripped terrestrial power grids. Engineers have learned to limit switching at electricity transfer stations, and satellite operators sometimes reduce operations or make back-up plans in case a craft is damaged.
Another aspect of a CME involves protons that get pushed along by the shock wave. Sometimes these protons break through Earth's protective magnetic field and flood the outer reaches of the atmosphere—where the space station orbits—with radiation. The science of it all is a gray area, Kunches said. But the best guess now is that there will only be a slight increase in proton activity. That's good news for the astronauts.
"When the shock goes by, we don't expect significant radiation issues," he said.
The astronauts were ordered to a protective area of the space station as a precaution last night.
Now that sunspot number 930 has flared so significantly—after several days of being quiet—the forecast calls for a "reasonble chance" of more major flares in coming days, Kunches said.
[link to www.space.com] |
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theresident
User ID: 169263
12/13/2006 4:17 PM
| | Re: New Forecast: Severe Space Storm Headed to Earth | Quote |
Previous story:
Solar Radiation Storm Smacks Satellites and Space Station
By Robert Roy Britt
Senior Science Writer
posted: 13 December 2006
08:21 am ET
A large sunspot that has been kicking up storms in recent days erupted again overnight with an X-3 solar flare. All X-flares are major.
This latest event has set off a radiation storm that is preventing some sun-watching satellites from doing their jobs. Such storms are fairly common when the Sun is at its most active, but they are rare during the current low point in the 11-year cycle of solar activity.
NASA and the astronauts aboard the International Space Station keep watch for strong radiation storms and sometimes retreat to the most protective part of the orbiting outpost to avoid exposure. Spacewalks are avoided during events like this. According to Spaceweather.com, "satellites may experience some glitches and reboots, but astronauts are in no danger."
However, the astronauts were ordered to a protective area of the space station as a precaution.
Flares of this magnitude can damage satellites and disrupt telecommunications on Earth.
The sunspot, numbered 930, has been rotating across the face of the Sun for several days. Sunspots are dark regions of the Sun where intense magnetic activity caps the upwelling of material from below. Sometimes a cap blows, and a visible flare results. The flares are loaded with X-rays and other radiation, all of which reaches Earth moments after the eruption and can be accompanied by a shower of protons. These storms can arrive in moments with little warning and can be deadly.
Last week, the same sunspot generated what astronomers described as a rarely imaged solar tsunami. The activity began with an X-9 flare Dec. 5.
Skywatchers at high latitudes—Canada and possibly the very northernmost United States, for example—might want to keep an eye out for aurora, or Northern Lights, which can be spawned by solar storms. No major auroral activity is expected, however.
Sunspot 930 has a small chance of producing additional major flares, according to NOAA-run Space Environment Center.
[link to www.space.com] |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 166763
12/13/2006 4:21 PM | | Re: New Forecast: Severe Space Storm Headed to Earth | Quote |
"terrestrial power grids"
Imagine that, wireless grids in space. |
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Pole Watcher
User ID: 155370
12/13/2006 4:23 PM | | Re: New Forecast: Severe Space Storm Headed to Earth | Quote |
I posted this on a seperate thread, but it is drifting.
Drudge posted this at about 2:30pm ET, Wed., 12/13/6, but quickly pulled it COMPLETELY!!!!
I smell rats.
[link to www.breitbart.com]
U.S. Warns of Threat to Satellites
Dec 13 1:58 PM US/Eastern
The Bush administration warned Wednesday against threats by terrorist groups and other nations against U.S. commercial and military satellites, and discounted the need for a treaty aimed at preventing an arms race in space.
Undersecretary of State Robert G. Joseph also reasserted U.S. policy that it has a right to use force against hostile nations or terror groups that might try to attack American satellites or ground installations that support space programs. President Bush adopted a new U.S. space policy earlier this year.
"We reserve the right to defend ourselves against hostile attacks and interference with our space assets," Joseph said in prepared remarks to the George C. Marshall Institute.
Joseph, the senior arms control official at the State Department, said nations cannot all be counted on to use space purely for peaceful purposes.
"A number of countries are exploring and acquiring capabilities to counter, attack, and defeat U.S. space systems," Joseph said
He also said terrorists "understand our vulnerabilities and have targeted our economy in the past, as they did on 9/11." He said terrorists and enemy states might view the U.S. space program as "a highly lucrative target," while sophisticated technologies could improve their ability to interfere with U.S. space systems and services.
Joseph did not identify terror groups or nations that might have such motives. An aide to Joseph, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the matter, said that information was classified.
"For our part, we must take all of these threats seriously because space capabilities are essential" to the U.S. economy and government, Joseph said. He said the U.S. is more reliant on space than any other country.
"No nation, no state-actor, should be under the illusion that the United States will tolerate a denial of our right to the use of space for peaceful purposes," he said.
Wade Boese, a spokesman for the private Arms Control Association, challenged the adminstration's policy. He said rejecting additional international arms controls for space runs counter to U.S. security interests "because the United States has the most to lose from an unregulated space arena."
Boese said he believes the administration wants to avoid negotiations in order to preserve the possibility of deploying space-based missile defense systems, such as interceptors.
Joseph listed telecommunications, transportation, electrical power, water supply, gas and oil storage, transportation systems, emergency services, banking and finance, and government services as relying heavily on data transmitted by satellites.
"The United States views the purposeful interference with its space systems as an infringement on our rights," he said, adding. "If these rights are not respected, the United States has the same full range of options _ from diplomatic to military _ to protect its space assets as it has to protect its other critical assets."
Joseph ruled out negotiating a new international space agreement, saying the 1967 Outer Space Treaty established an effective arms control regime. The treaty bans the stationing of weapons of mass destruction in outer space and declares outer space should be used only for peaceful purposes.
A new agreement is not necessary, Joseph said. "We should concentrate on real threats," he said, citing Iran and North Korea.
"There is no arms race in space and we see no signs of one emerging," he said. |
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taketheredpill
User ID: 125467
12/13/2006 4:23 PM
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 163776
12/13/2006 4:23 PM | | Re: New Forecast: Severe Space Storm Headed to Earth | Quote |
Wrap you back up disks in cardboard or newspaper and put them in a closed ungrounded metal container. |
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Amethyst
User ID: 162892
12/13/2006 4:24 PM | | Re: New Forecast: Severe Space Storm Headed to Earth | Quote |
Thanks for the update from the other thread... |
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Pole Watcher
User ID: 155370
12/13/2006 4:27 PM | | Re: New Forecast: Severe Space Storm Headed to Earth | Quote |
NOT ONLY WAS THE INFORMATION PULLED FROM DRUDGE....I NOW SEE THAT IT WAS PULLED FROM GLP!!!!!
WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON HERE?
MAJOR HEADS UP PEOPLE.  |
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Demosthenes
User ID: 123518
12/13/2006 4:29 PM
 | | Re: New Forecast: Severe Space Storm Headed to Earth | Quote |
I posted this on a seperate thread, but it is drifting.
Drudge posted this at about 2:30pm ET, Wed., 12/13/6, but quickly pulled it COMPLETELY!!!!
I smell rats. Quoting: Pole Watcher 155370
I realize i really no nothing about these things, but the fact that this sunspot is here and active has been around for a few days...well before the space shuttle launched...but they sent it up anyway. You would think, given the new safety precautions NASA has put in place, along with the effects another tragedy in such a short period of time would have on the space program, they would have eared on the side of caution....
"Beyond a critical point within a finite space, freedom diminishes as numbers increase. ...The human question is not how many can possibly survive within the system, but what kind of existence is possible for those who do survive." -Frank Herbert |
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taketheredpill
User ID: 125467
12/13/2006 4:31 PM
| | Re: New Forecast: Severe Space Storm Headed to Earth | Quote |
I posted this on a seperate thread, but it is drifting.
Drudge posted this at about 2:30pm ET, Wed., 12/13/6, but quickly pulled it COMPLETELY!!!!
I smell rats.
I realize i really no nothing about these things, but the fact that this sunspot is here and active has been around for a few days...well before the space shuttle launched...but they sent it up anyway. You would think, given the new safety precautions NASA has put in place, along with the effects another tragedy in such a short period of time would have on the space program, they would have eared on the side of caution.... Quoting: Demosthenes
IMO, they sent it up to "rescue" the ones up at ISS. Not to get all Eat or anything, but Im thinking that they will all be coming back. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 169272
12/13/2006 4:35 PM | | Re: New Forecast: Severe Space Storm Headed to Earth | Quote |
Active Sunspot Group Produces Significant Flare
By: NOAA Space Environment Center
Published: Dec 13, 2006 at 08:01
NOAA sunspot Region 930 produced a category R3 (Strong) radio blackout with an associated S2 (Moderate) solar radiation storm at 0240 UTC, 13 December (9:40 P.M. EST, 12 December). The SOHO/LASCO instrument also observed a powerful and fast Earth directed coronal mass ejection with this activity. As a result of this activity, a significant geomagnetic storm is expected to impact the Earth approximately 1800 UTC, 14 December (1:00 P.M. EST). NOAA sunspot Region 930 yielded a strong R3 radio blackout and a strong S3 solar radiation storm on 05 December.
This region has been unproductive over the past five days. The active region is now a large sunspot cluster which is still rotating across the visible disk. Because of the current position of Region 930, further activity has greater potential to promptly impact Earth. Agencies impacted by space weather storms should continue to closely monitor space weather conditions during the next five days.
Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA, USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services and other observatories, universities, and institutions. More information is available at SEC's Web site [link to sec.noaa.gov]
Sky watchers should be alert for auroras when it arrives on Dec. 14th.
WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 50 or greater predicted
Valid for UTC Day: 2006 Dec 14
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 169275
12/13/2006 4:40 PM | | Re: New Forecast: Severe Space Storm Headed to Earth | Quote |
On a related note:
Solar flare sends students' request to Mars into space
"The sun got in my eyes" is an old excuse, but it fit the bill Tuesday for NASA's Odyssey orbiter around Mars.
The orbiter's camera was scheduled to photograph five Martian targets requested by eighth-graders at Jackson Middle School in Champlin as part of a semester-long astronomy course.
But radiation from a storm on the sun interfered with instructions being sent to the orbiter, said teacher Carla-Rae Smith. That meant "the image requests that your team put in have been 'lost to space,' " said Paige Valderrama Graff of Arizona State University's Mars Education program.
The result is that Smith's students need to pick new targets this week to fit the Odyssey's orbit next Tuesday.
Smith said solar flares are "pretty common" and sometimes interfere with signals between Earth and its man-made satellites. But Graff said this is only the second time in recent years that she could recall a flare disrupting students' photo requests.
The university sent an updated CD of Martian images that the students will use to choose new targets. The photos are designed to help answer their questions about the planet's appearance.
Last week they focused on volcanoes, meteor craters and other features for the Odyssey's close-up camera. They must choose areas lit by the sun as the orbiter flies overhead, 250 miles above the surface.
Even if they were disappointed by the postponement, Graff said, "It's a great lesson in real-world science for the kids."
[link to www.startribune.com] |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 169280
12/13/2006 4:55 PM | | Re: New Forecast: Severe Space Storm Headed to Earth | Quote |
why does bush keep doing these things to us? |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 144976
12/13/2006 5:11 PM | | Re: New Forecast: Severe Space Storm Headed to Earth | Quote |
Wrap you back up disks in cardboard or newspaper and put them in a closed ungrounded metal container. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 163776
Ungrounded??...are you sure about that? As far as a Faraday Cage goes, I thought they needed to be grounded. Or, is this not a situation for a Faraday Cage? Let me know. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 144976
12/13/2006 5:15 PM | | Re: New Forecast: Severe Space Storm Headed to Earth | Quote |
What about laptops? Think we should protect them somehow? |
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RECOOME
User ID: 169241
12/13/2006 5:22 PM
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What about laptops? Think we should protect them somehow? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 144976
Tinfoil?
Never give a Saiyan an opening. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 144976
12/13/2006 5:31 PM | | Re: New Forecast: Severe Space Storm Headed to Earth | Quote |
HELP!!...I must protect my laptop!!!! |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 166971
12/13/2006 5:44 PM | | Re: New Forecast: Severe Space Storm Headed to Earth | Quote |
Wrap you back up disks in cardboard or newspaper and put them in a closed ungrounded metal container.
Ungrounded??...are you sure about that? As far as a Faraday Cage goes, I thought they needed to be grounded. Or, is this not a situation for a Faraday Cage? Let me know. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 144976
Lol im sure if you burry something underground it will be suffeciently "grounded" hence where the term came from |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 144976
12/13/2006 5:45 PM | | Re: New Forecast: Severe Space Storm Headed to Earth | Quote |
Wrap you back up disks in cardboard or newspaper and put them in a closed ungrounded metal container.
Ungrounded??...are you sure about that? As far as a Faraday Cage goes, I thought they needed to be grounded. Or, is this not a situation for a Faraday Cage? Let me know.
Lol im sure if you burry something underground it will be suffeciently "grounded" hence where the term came from Quoting: Anonymous Coward 166971
Oh man, now I gotta BURY the box?....heheh....I give up. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 163776
12/13/2006 5:46 PM | | Re: New Forecast: Severe Space Storm Headed to Earth | Quote |
Grounding a Faraday box is NOT necessary and in some cases actually may be less than ideal. While EMP and lightning aren't the "same animal", a good example of how lack of grounding is a plus can be seen with some types of lightning strikes. Take, for example, a lightning strike on a flying airplane. The strike doesn't fry the plane's occupants because the metal shell of the plane is a Faraday box of sorts. Even though the plane, high over the earth, isn't grounded it will sustain little damage.
[link to www.aussurvivalist.com] |
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RECOOME
User ID: 169241
12/13/2006 5:50 PM
| | Re: New Forecast: Severe Space Storm Headed to Earth | Quote |
Grounding a Faraday box is NOT necessary and in some cases actually may be less than ideal. While EMP and lightning aren't the "same animal", a good example of how lack of grounding is a plus can be seen with some types of lightning strikes. Take, for example, a lightning strike on a flying airplane. The strike doesn't fry the plane's occupants because the metal shell of the plane is a Faraday box of sorts. Even though the plane, high over the earth, isn't grounded it will sustain little damage.
[ link to www.aussurvivalist.com]
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
Never give a Saiyan an opening. |
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starlight afar
User ID: 94505
12/13/2006 6:06 PM
 | | Re: New Forecast: Severe Space Storm Headed to Earth | Quote |
Just wondering if this has some connection for Missouri now having temperature at 60 degrees today and for the next couple of days? Its way above what its suppose to be, just last week it was below freezing, in fact one morning was 3 degrees! |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 91783
12/13/2006 6:22 PM | | Re: New Forecast: Severe Space Storm Headed to Earth | Quote |
Here's the real concern. If the CME hits the Earth the right way the energy will be imparted to the earth's troposphere and will cause significant weather events and possibly earthquakes. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 161863
12/13/2006 6:31 PM | | Re: New Forecast: Severe Space Storm Headed to Earth | Quote |
What a conspricay that would be, massive solar flare hits earth, knocks out all the power, planet descends into chaos, 5 years later the elite emerge from their bunkers and live happily ever after.
What I'd like to know is - how could this be blamed on Bush Co?
 |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 169178
12/13/2006 6:38 PM | | Re: New Forecast: Severe Space Storm Headed to Earth | Quote |
Take your proton pills and put your helmets on!!!
Can you say their goes your thyroid! |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 140593
12/13/2006 6:41 PM | |
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 122539
12/13/2006 6:45 PM | | Re: New Forecast: Severe Space Storm Headed to Earth | Quote |
but did we not have a storm of this kind last week and nothing happened? why are we fear mongering again as if we have forgotten last week? |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 144976
12/13/2006 6:49 PM | | Re: New Forecast: Severe Space Storm Headed to Earth | Quote |
What a conspricay that would be, massive solar flare hits earth, knocks out all the power, planet descends into chaos, 5 years later the elite emerge from their bunkers and live happily ever after.
What I'd like to know is - how could this be blamed on Bush Co?
Hmmmm...let's see....how about Bush's handling of the AFTERMATH. Yeah, that's it. Wow....and people think he handled Katrina badly. Can you imagine that idiot sitting on his hands while the entire country's electrical grid is down, volcanoes popping all over the place, earthquakes...sheesh.
heheheheh...."bring it on" |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 161863
12/13/2006 6:49 PM | | Re: New Forecast: Severe Space Storm Headed to Earth | Quote |
why are we fear mongering again as if we have forgotten last week? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 122539
But that's partly what glp is about!
Quit ruining the fun! |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 169178
12/13/2006 6:51 PM | | Re: New Forecast: Severe Space Storm Headed to Earth | Quote |
but did we not have a storm of this kind last week and nothing happened? why are we fear mongering again as if we have forgotten last week? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 122539
This one is earth bound! Christ will you wake up |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 144976
12/13/2006 6:51 PM | | Re: New Forecast: Severe Space Storm Headed to Earth | Quote |
but did we not have a storm of this kind last week and nothing happened? why are we fear mongering again as if we have forgotten last week? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 122539
Because if you read the OP's article, you'll notice a part that says:
"This flare unleashed a strong CME that's aimed squarely at Earth."
It's the "squarely at Earth" part that makes this one just a little bit different. Now, get down in the basement and stop asking silly questions!!.... |
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