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California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.

 
hey..
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02/07/2017 11:48 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
I spoke to my mother that is 30 minutes down from the dam and in between two rivers. I had asked her if she was thinking about getting out. She doesn't think anything will happen. I can hear a little bit of panic in her voice. The problem is these storms are warm and it is raining up to 7000 ft. They are saying on the news that the people of Oroville are safe so she thinks she will be fine.

She said if she would go she would grab some photos. I asked if she would please get some bins ready with food, water and dog food. Pull out a tent and seriously think about going somewhere before anything should happen. Entry out of the area would be difficult.
 Quoting: Serenity12


HEY BUDDY....GET YER MOM OUT OF THERE ASAP!!!

OFFER HER LOTS OF MONEY!!!

THE FORCAST IS A WARNING UNTIL SATURDAY AFTER 9AM!!

ITS BAD
IT CAN FAIL

AND THEN AFTER A 3 TO 4 DAY BREAK YOU GET 5 MORE DAYS OF OVER 50% RAIN...GROUND AND ALL WILL BE SOAKED..

GET MUM THE FUCK OU OF THERE

WEATHER.COM
3 WARNINGS!!!!!

GO GET HER IF NECESSARY...
 Quoting: uh 2072612


I know, she needs to go. I am 4 hours away and tonight over 7 hours since I travel for my job. I have to travel home through SLO county tomorrow that has also received a lot of rain. Sandbags are literally in the center divider on the highway, last storm closed a portion of the highway. The ground is just so wet.

We have a cabin at 5800 elevation that had over 4 ft. of snow just over a week ago. Today was not the first day of rain and today I another 1 1/2 inches was received. All that water just heading down into the valleys.

I hated that I had to travel this week.
 Quoting: Serenity12


can she drive or has a car...make a reservation for her in a 'safe space'...tell her its your treat...call the neighbors and try to get them to leave with her...tell her you had a bad feeling or dream..anything to get her out of there....if it dont blow...so what...anything..early birthday present...x mas...valentines day treat...just to be safe...do it NOW!
ding
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02/07/2017 11:49 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
I spoke to my mother that is 30 minutes down from the dam and in between two rivers. I had asked her if she was thinking about getting out. She doesn't think anything will happen. I can hear a little bit of panic in her voice. The problem is these storms are warm and it is raining up to 7000 ft. They are saying on the news that the people of Oroville are safe so she thinks she will be fine.

She said if she would go she would grab some photos. I asked if she would please get some bins ready with food, water and dog food. Pull out a tent and seriously think about going somewhere before anything should happen. Entry out of the area would be difficult.
 Quoting: Serenity12


HEY BUDDY....GET YER MOM OUT OF THERE ASAP!!!

OFFER HER LOTS OF MONEY!!!

THE FORCAST IS A WARNING UNTIL SATURDAY AFTER 9AM!!

ITS BAD
IT CAN FAIL

AND THEN AFTER A 3 TO 4 DAY BREAK YOU GET 5 MORE DAYS OF OVER 50% RAIN...GROUND AND ALL WILL BE SOAKED..

GET MUM THE FUCK OU OF THERE

WEATHER.COM
3 WARNINGS!!!!!

GO GET HER IF NECESSARY...
 Quoting: uh 2072612
ding
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02/07/2017 11:50 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
I spoke to my mother that is 30 minutes down from the dam and in between two rivers. I had asked her if she was thinking about getting out. She doesn't think anything will happen. I can hear a little bit of panic in her voice. The problem is these storms are warm and it is raining up to 7000 ft. They are saying on the news that the people of Oroville are safe so she thinks she will be fine.

She said if she would go she would grab some photos. I asked if she would please get some bins ready with food, water and dog food. Pull out a tent and seriously think about going somewhere before anything should happen. Entry out of the area would be difficult.
 Quoting: Serenity12


If she is in Biggs/Gridley/Live Oak/Yuba City/Marysville, I'd insist she at least has a bag in the car ready to go (and a full tank). No need to panic, but reasonable preps are in order.
 Quoting: Crunch62
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02/07/2017 11:58 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
Based upon the evening press conference ... I put my notes in a post above ... it looks like people have a solid 2 days (from this afternoon), maybe 3, before "CRISIS" time may hit.

No need to "Panic" yet ... but do need to pay attention to what they say tomorrow night after they have examined the Spillway.

If I were in the area I would watch the lake levels ... and "IF" they are actually approaching 900 feet, say 895 feet, THEN I would be getting away from any downstream location ASAP (gives you a couple of days to pack up stuff you may want to take with you).

Link to the hourly data ... you have to hit the "Latest" blue type below the numbers to actually get the latest hourly data. The posted data runs about 2 hours behind.
[link to cdec.water.ca.gov]

(current lake level at 7 PM PST was 859.69 feet, up from 854.95 feet at 12 noon which is when they shut down the Spillway)
Anonymous Coward
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02/08/2017 12:04 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
looks like it is currently rising at about the rate of 3/4 inch per hour...

[link to cdec.water.ca.gov]

And this will increase rapidly over the next couple days as the heavy rains return tonight...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 71484121


Thanks for that hourly link. I only had the daily one, which is posted back on p. 1 I think.

ANYWAY!!!

Damn ... that current rise is 17 FEET PER DAY!! and the big NEW rains haven't even begun to fall in the watershed yet.

Lake is currently at 858.47'. The FULL DESIGNED FLOOD Capacity Dam is 900'. (as noted above per Wikipedia FULL EMERGENCY FLOOD Capacity is 935').

With only 41.5 feet of storage capacity remaining unless they can get water going out the spillway they only have about 2 1/2 days of increasing water levels until they hit the magic 900' FULL Food Capacity Level.

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 52154903


Well full flood capacity is the crest elevation of the dam. Most earthen dams have a slope downstream, so the water could theoretically flow over the top of the dam.

Unless the dam structure fails because it has more weight on the upstream side, that's a slope failure.

The overflow on the crest would act like a weir equation, and if it flows for too long obviously you'll get erosion of the dam on the downstream toe which could lead to failure of the embankment.

Basically, the water can flow over the top for a while, and the dam should have been designed for that but you can never test that condition so you don't know.
Anonymous Coward
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02/08/2017 12:10 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
Based upon the evening press conference ... I put my notes in a post above ... it looks like people have a solid 2 days (from this afternoon), maybe 3, before "CRISIS" time may hit.

No need to "Panic" yet ... but do need to pay attention to what they say tomorrow night after they have examined the Spillway.

If I were in the area I would watch the lake levels ... and "IF" they are actually approaching 900 feet, say 895 feet, THEN I would be getting away from any downstream location ASAP (gives you a couple of days to pack up stuff you may want to take with you).

Link to the hourly data ... you have to hit the "Latest" blue type below the numbers to actually get the latest hourly data. The posted data runs about 2 hours behind.
[link to cdec.water.ca.gov]

(current lake level at 7 PM PST was 859.69 feet, up from 854.95 feet at 12 noon which is when they shut down the Spillway)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 52154903


For you west coasters ... the 9 PM PST numbers just hit:
860.82 feet
Crunch62
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02/08/2017 12:13 AM

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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
I'm about 15 miles downstream from the dam. CA DWR has been trying to maintain the elevation at around 850 feet (crest elevation is 900') for flood storage.

Even with the previous 50K CFS releases, the lake rose almost 10 feet in the past 24 hours. With the spillway shut down, it will rise even faster. Currently at 858 feet. 42 feet to go.

I'm having flashbacks to 1997, when they thought the dam was going to be overtopped by excessive inflow. It wasn't a fun time.
 Quoting: Crunch62


Stay safe man, be ready to bug out, Earthen dams have been know to slide when the reach peak levels. Even tho this site shows me from Canada, I'm in Red Bluff. The river here is WAY up. Expecting to peak in the morning. We still have some major storms coming, I feel for ya man.

We're pretty close to the river here, and it rose up about 10 ft. in the last day. They are doing some serious releases from Shasta right now too.

It's not looking good, they slowed it some, and the river went down about 15', but the rains came again this week, and now it's reclaimed all that and some.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73740180


Living here for 30+ years, I have become very impressed by the engineering that went into the design and construction of this dam. The usage of local materials in the fill, the processed rock from the gold rush dredge tailings combined with the local clay soil, painstakingly combined and compacted.

It is an engineering marvel.

Then it was turned over to bureaucrats to manage. Shameful.
What the Hell?...
Crunch62
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02/08/2017 12:19 AM

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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
looks like it is currently rising at about the rate of 3/4 inch per hour...

[link to cdec.water.ca.gov]

And this will increase rapidly over the next couple days as the heavy rains return tonight...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 71484121


Thanks for that hourly link. I only had the daily one, which is posted back on p. 1 I think.

ANYWAY!!!

Damn ... that current rise is 17 FEET PER DAY!! and the big NEW rains haven't even begun to fall in the watershed yet.

Lake is currently at 858.47'. The FULL DESIGNED FLOOD Capacity Dam is 900'. (as noted above per Wikipedia FULL EMERGENCY FLOOD Capacity is 935').

With only 41.5 feet of storage capacity remaining unless they can get water going out the spillway they only have about 2 1/2 days of increasing water levels until they hit the magic 900' FULL Food Capacity Level.

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 52154903


Well full flood capacity is the crest elevation of the dam. Most earthen dams have a slope downstream, so the water could theoretically flow over the top of the dam.

Unless the dam structure fails because it has more weight on the upstream side, that's a slope failure.

The overflow on the crest would act like a weir equation, and if it flows for too long obviously you'll get erosion of the dam on the downstream toe which could lead to failure of the embankment.

Basically, the water can flow over the top for a while, and the dam should have been designed for that but you can never test that condition so you don't know.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 30194358


There is an emergency spillway, a concrete apron designed to accommodate uncontrolled overflow. How effective? It has never been tested.

Last Edited by Crunch62 on 02/08/2017 12:21 AM
What the Hell?...
BunnySwanson

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02/08/2017 12:27 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
I live in central valley. Water should be directed into the canals rather than into the ocean. The farms can let it flood empty fields and refill the underground water supply which is tapped dry thanks to the drought and Nestle Water. If you read stories about dust bowl (Grapes of Wrath), you will find the farmers were not permitted to stay on land and farm it.
Mehitable
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02/08/2017 12:33 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
They should try to rush through that secession act so CA can apply for foreign aid.
Anonymous Coward
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02/08/2017 12:36 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
There is an emergency spillway, a concrete apron designed to accommodate uncontrolled overflow. How effective? It has never been tested.
 Quoting: Crunch62


I see so the spillway that OP is talking about is a regular release spillway, and then at some higher elevation is another (untested) emergency spillway?

What can it release? 200,000 cfs?
BRYinTX

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02/08/2017 12:39 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
since this is glp, has anyone suggested this damage may have been 'encouraged'? enviro-terrorism? false flag to further delay sessions' confirmation?

i certainly hope this can be mitigated fast. lotta water in that lake.
Isis One

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02/08/2017 12:41 AM

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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
bump to follow, hi Geo! Stay safe everyone out there.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
Thread: How To Raise Your Vibrational Frequency If Interested
Anonymous Coward
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02/08/2017 12:43 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
since this is glp, has anyone suggested this damage may have been 'encouraged'? enviro-terrorism? false flag to further delay sessions' confirmation?

i certainly hope this can be mitigated fast. lotta water in that lake.
 Quoting: BRYinTX


It's probably lack of maintenance. Since the drought they probably haven't used the spillway that frequently, if they have turbines for power generation that most of the release is through the pen stocks feeding the turbines.

So when they finally get a big storm (5 year or so) then they have to use the release spillway. But cracks can develop in the spillway slabs, and when water flows over the cracks, a lot of water, it can rip the concrete up. Especially if the concrete was spalling around the joints.

Our infrastructure is old, most surface water impoundment structures like this were built in the 60s'-70s.
Crunch62
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02/08/2017 12:47 AM

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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
There is an emergency spillway, a concrete apron designed to accommodate uncontrolled overflow. How effective? It has never been tested.
 Quoting: Crunch62


I see so the spillway that OP is talking about is a regular release spillway, and then at some higher elevation is another (untested) emergency spillway?

What can it release? 200,000 cfs?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 30194358


I suspect it can release whatever the volume is flowing over it. It is basically the overflow channel for the lake. No control or management possible. I suppose it exists to reduce erosion damage of the dam by diverting emergency flows to the side and away from the dam structure.
What the Hell?...
Westsail
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
Ignore this post..

Last Edited by Deplorable Westsail on 02/08/2017 01:05 AM
The most beautiful thing we can experience is the mysterious. It is the source of all true art and all science. He to whom this emotion is a stranger, who can no longer pause to wonder and stand rapt in awe, is as good as dead: his eyes are closed. -Albert Einstein
BRYinTX

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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
since this is glp, has anyone suggested this damage may have been 'encouraged'? enviro-terrorism? false flag to further delay sessions' confirmation?

i certainly hope this can be mitigated fast. lotta water in that lake.
 Quoting: BRYinTX


It's probably lack of maintenance. Since the drought they probably haven't used the spillway that frequently, if they have turbines for power generation that most of the release is through the pen stocks feeding the turbines.

So when they finally get a big storm (5 year or so) then they have to use the release spillway. But cracks can develop in the spillway slabs, and when water flows over the cracks, a lot of water, it can rip the concrete up. Especially if the concrete was spalling around the joints.

Our infrastructure is old, most surface water impoundment structures like this were built in the 60s'-70s.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 30194358


that sounds plausible. but doesn't this dam prevent some fish migration or something? seems like the enviros hated it for that. wouldn't put it past wacko enviros to minimally maintain a dam.

ok..i'll get off the conspiracy stuff...you just never know these days.
Crunch62
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02/08/2017 12:56 AM

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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
The latest outflow update is 57,545cfs ...

That is far in excess of the 15,000 they told us the power plant could accommodate. How is this outflow being achieved? Are they already utilizing the compromised spillway??

Good news is they've succeeded in dropping the lake level by 7 feet.. but at what cost. Is this an indication that they are more concerned than immediately letting on. I thought the plan was to assess the damage tomorrow during daylight..
 Quoting: Westsail


Where are you seeing this information? The lake level has risen by 5+ feet since 1 PM and the current outflow is 5112 CFS.

[link to cdec.water.ca.gov]
What the Hell?...
Westsail
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02/08/2017 01:01 AM

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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
Oh, never mind everything I said ... looked at the timestamps wrong .. I thought the newest was on top!

Oh shit.. ok, well nice to have that data

861.33ft now

Last Edited by Deplorable Westsail on 02/08/2017 01:10 AM
The most beautiful thing we can experience is the mysterious. It is the source of all true art and all science. He to whom this emotion is a stranger, who can no longer pause to wonder and stand rapt in awe, is as good as dead: his eyes are closed. -Albert Einstein
Crunch62
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
that sounds plausible. but doesn't this dam prevent some fish migration or something? seems like the enviros hated it for that. wouldn't put it past wacko enviros to minimally maintain a dam.

ok..i'll get off the conspiracy stuff...you just never know these days.
 Quoting: BRYinTX


Yes, the construction of the dam prevented salmon from returning to their headwaters to spawn. The Feather River Fish Hatchery was constructed below the dam to mitigate this impact.
What the Hell?...
Anonymous Coward
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02/08/2017 01:31 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
I live 4 blocks away from the river in a basement with my daughter's. Near Veatch and High. The news just indicated an inflow of 96000+ cubic feet of water and 5100 outflow, raising the river 6 inches an hour until it reaches capacity on Saturday a.m.

We're scared.
er
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02/08/2017 01:35 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
I live 4 blocks away from the river in a basement with my daughter's. Near Veatch and High. The news just indicated an inflow of 96000+ cubic feet of water and 5100 outflow, raising the river 6 inches an hour until it reaches capacity on Saturday a.m.

We're scared.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73955115


that is alot of fuckin physics goin on...entropy.......
Anonymous Coward
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02/08/2017 01:40 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
This isn't a joke to us.
nor i
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02/08/2017 01:47 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
This isn't a joke to us.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73955115


u r correct it is not a joke..i would get out of there...
Anonymous Coward
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02/08/2017 01:58 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
According to my math, at the past rate of fill since the spillway was closed, there is 52hrs till 900' spillover stage.

And I read there is more rain in about 2 days.


02/07/2017 11:00 854.43 2868214 57545 132518 59665 31.44 13.4
02/07/2017 12:00 854.95 2875299 30009 129300 47321 31.44 13.4
02/07/2017 13:00 855.68 2885266 5420 128248 13480 31.44 13.4
02/07/2017 14:00 856.40 2895121 5153 122526 16490 31.44 13.4
02/07/2017 15:00 857.12 2904999 5107 120754 20596 31.44 13.5
02/07/2017 16:00 857.83 2914763 5110 119409 22057 31.44 13.4
02/07/2017 17:00 858.47 2923584 5158 111989 22098 31.44 13.4
02/07/2017 18:00 859.10 2932286 5185 105473 22172 31.44 13.5
02/07/2017 19:00 859.69 2940452 5135 102495 22147 31.44 13.5
02/07/2017 20:00 860.28 2948634 5172 99347 22179 31.44 13.4
02/07/2017 21:00 860.82 2956136 5112 96936 22158 31.44 13.5
02/07/2017 22:00 861.33 2963234 5158 88657 22131 31.44 13.5
Anonymous Coward
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
Hopefully it will be alright. I'm a widow with 2 daughters and a full time student at Butte College. I can't just bug out. I'll loose my financial aid. I can't have that.
Thank you for updating this thread with good info. Thank you GLP.
We're just going to be alert and ready to leave. Is anyone else in this part of the 530? All the Best.
#Geomagnetic_Storm# (OP)
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02/08/2017 02:16 AM

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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
Unfortunately in the longer range, there seems to be several more Atmospheric River storms coming straight from Hawaii. It can still change, but this seems like it could get violent throughout the whole state of these longer range models hold.
Anonymous Coward
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02/08/2017 02:22 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
Thoughts and prayers to everyone downstream of the Feather River. They don't call Oroville 'Orohell' for nothing.

Be safe.
Anonymous Coward
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02/08/2017 02:30 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
Unfortunately in the longer range, there seems to be several more Atmospheric River storms coming straight from Hawaii. It can still change, but this seems like it could get violent throughout the whole state of these longer range models hold.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Geo, do you see this as a 150/200 year storm/flood?

The last great Cali flood with Atmospheric river storms was ~1862.
#Geomagnetic_Storm# (OP)
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
Unfortunately in the longer range, there seems to be several more Atmospheric River storms coming straight from Hawaii. It can still change, but this seems like it could get violent throughout the whole state of these longer range models hold.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Geo, do you see this as a 150/200 year storm/flood?

The last great Cali flood with Atmospheric river storms was ~1862.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 70742102


I've seen comparisons, but I will wait and see on what is coming up. But this sure has been a very bad flood year that's for sure. I think we have had over 10 AR's this Winter which is completely unheard of. We still have a month or so in our wet season left.


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