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California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now

 
DCB33

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03/19/2017 06:34 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
someone like the State Hydrologists would know
all of those numbers. that's their job.



Not your exact request but as a general reference, I believe the inflows at the last big "event" topped out at around 190,000 cfs. Should get interesting soon enough!
freddie 0

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03/19/2017 06:35 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
The huge drop off which they put shotcrete on the face of shouts out one thing loud and clear, from the MS gate structure down to the drop off, the MS is built overtop crap for a sub base.

With the coming rain and snow melt, Mother Nature is about to draw to that inside straight.

Tiger ride coming to a quick end...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 72845404


well, if that top section goes, the erosion will be
just a short ways from the top of the Dam, real quick.
Anonymous Coward
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03/19/2017 06:35 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
Question from Montana, why do you think the dam will fail?
 Quoting: bigD111


because it is suffering from too many fatal injuries,
with an incoming deluge coming in.
 Quoting: freddie 0


Ok. Thanks.
 Quoting: bigD111


DWR has a very short list of less than ideal options, given the condition of the main spillway and the limits it imposes for releasing water.

The incoming storms, combined with snowmelt from the current 180-200% of average snowpack, is sure to cause huge increases of inflow to the reservoir.

DWR needs to find a way to move that incoming water out of the reservoir and downstream.

They could run the crippled spillway full bore, which would likely lead to it's destruction, filling the downstream channel with more debris and possibly the failure of the dam itself.

Or they could run the main spillway at reduced capacity as they are doing now, and watch as the water level overtops the Emergency Spillway again, also leading to a debris-choked river channel and possible failure of the dam.

Either way, the result is not good.
 Quoting: Crunch62


No. They. Cannot. Ever. Run. The. MS. Over 50k -- why?

The same thing I said a month and a half ago. Harmonics. It is already cracking at the point where it meets the wall just before the wall o' water. Even at 50k the bounce is tiggerrific.
LJM77

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03/19/2017 06:46 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
Question from Montana, why do you think the dam will fail?
 Quoting: bigD111


There is plenty of discussion. 800 bloody pages worth. If you missed the finer points, please skim it.

They are blessed it is still staniding now. And remember a dam failure does not mean the main dam collapses. Get that out of your head folks.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21185155


What would stop the dam from cutting away if one of the spillways collapse?
DCB33

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03/19/2017 06:58 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
Thanks for the live link to inflow/outflow numbers AC9262.

I will share again to be sure as the usual ones are down.

[link to 136.200.243.100]

It has been as low as 11,000 and as high as 30,000. With the usual silly, hourly inflow fluctuations...

25,000....16,000...30,000....17,000
Crunch62
Dirt Farmer

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03/19/2017 07:14 PM

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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
...


because it is suffering from too many fatal injuries,
with an incoming deluge coming in.
 Quoting: freddie 0


Ok. Thanks.
 Quoting: bigD111


DWR has a very short list of less than ideal options, given the condition of the main spillway and the limits it imposes for releasing water.

The incoming storms, combined with snowmelt from the current 180-200% of average snowpack, is sure to cause huge increases of inflow to the reservoir.

DWR needs to find a way to move that incoming water out of the reservoir and downstream.

They could run the crippled spillway full bore, which would likely lead to it's destruction, filling the downstream channel with more debris and possibly the failure of the dam itself.

Or they could run the main spillway at reduced capacity as they are doing now, and watch as the water level overtops the Emergency Spillway again, also leading to a debris-choked river channel and possible failure of the dam.

Either way, the result is not good.
 Quoting: Crunch62


No. They. Cannot. Ever. Run. The. MS. Over 50k -- why?

The same thing I said a month and a half ago. Harmonics. It is already cracking at the point where it meets the wall just before the wall o' water. Even at 50k the bounce is tiggerrific.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21185155


Hence my statement that doing so could cause failure of the dam.

What they 'can do' vs what they 'shouldn't do' are two separate things.
What the Hell?...
Anonymous Coward
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03/19/2017 07:41 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
Question from Montana, why do you think the dam will fail?
 Quoting: bigD111


There is plenty of discussion. 800 bloody pages worth. If you missed the finer points, please skim it.

They are blessed it is still staniding now. And remember a dam failure does not mean the main dam collapses. Get that out of your head folks.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21185155


What would stop the dam from cutting away if one of the spillways collapse?
 Quoting: LJM77


There's a damn big chunk of hill/mountainside between the spillway and the dam.
Anonymous Coward
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03/19/2017 07:41 PM
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...


Lol. Do you know what that much water does to a none-smooth service -- based on your comment you have no clue. Go take a 300 level hydrodynamics course. Or even a basic one on OCW (this one is free).
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21185155


even with the most recent MS patching job, DWR still
doesn't seem to understand the Physics of Cavitation.
 Quoting: freddie 0


They bolted the top of the spillway to rock. I figured those bumps were the tops of bolts. I never saw them in old footage so I figured they are new. Right? What else could it be but new bolts?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73141989


Definitely the new bolts.

I can't be the only one who assumed they would have countersunk those bolt heads and grouted over them to provide a smooth surface.

I'm not an engineer, but have been building and fabricating stuff since I was ten years old and have learned by trial and error what works and what doesn't. You'd think that someone with a formal education in hydrodynamics would know what in the hell they are doing.
 Quoting: Crunch62

In the book The Emerald Mile, they describe the massive cavitation damage at the Glen Canyon spillway caused by a bump the size of a walnut on the cement wall.

Those new little bumps have to be bolts, but how could they not make the surface smooth? Not enough time? Do they want the main to fail up top? Why leave such visible bumps? Is the flow too low for bad cavitation to occur?

Crunch, hope you do ok.....
Crunch62
Dirt Farmer

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03/19/2017 07:51 PM

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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
cdec site is back up.

Elevation 855.18 @ 4 PM.
What the Hell?...
LJM77

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03/19/2017 08:01 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
Question from Montana, why do you think the dam will fail?
 Quoting: bigD111


There is plenty of discussion. 800 bloody pages worth. If you missed the finer points, please skim it.

They are blessed it is still staniding now. And remember a dam failure does not mean the main dam collapses. Get that out of your head folks.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21185155


What would stop the dam from cutting away if one of the spillways collapse?
 Quoting: LJM77


There's a damn big chunk of hill/mountainside between the spillway and the dam.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73421978


It is made up of soft tailings. It would cut away in minutes, or less, if there is failure. I've witnessed this up close. Water is extremely powerful...it takes no prisoners.
LJM77

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03/19/2017 08:04 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
I believe that they will crank the MS all the way up if they start to lose the fight. They'll first initiate an evacuation order and then let the chips fall. That is the hail Mary in the end...assuming there is still a MS.
bigD111

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03/19/2017 08:06 PM

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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
Question from Montana, why do you think the dam will fail?
 Quoting: bigD111


There is plenty of discussion. 800 bloody pages worth. If you missed the finer points, please skim it.

They are blessed it is still staniding now. And remember a dam failure does not mean the main dam collapses. Get that out of your head folks.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21185155


I've been following this thread from the beginning. I know what is in the thread. I just am asking a question. From my view, things don't look very dire, so I just wanted to know why you think it will fail!
deplorably republican
freddie 0

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03/19/2017 08:10 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
Question from Montana, why do you think the dam will fail?
 Quoting: bigD111


There is plenty of discussion. 800 bloody pages worth. If you missed the finer points, please skim it.

They are blessed it is still staniding now. And remember a dam failure does not mean the main dam collapses. Get that out of your head folks.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21185155


I've been following this thread from the beginning. I know what is in the thread. I just am asking a question. From my view, things don't look very dire, so I just wanted to know why you think it will fail!
 Quoting: bigD111


nontheless, many people in this thread still think she's gonna blow.
Anonymous Coward
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03/19/2017 08:12 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
Please look at this KCRA video from Friday --

Pay attention at the extreme beginning (I had to restart it several times)and again at 3:11 to look at the chute structure itself. It looks like new concrete on the structure up above the chutes. Has the whole MS from top to bottom needed to be patched and repaired? Due to the battering/vibrations from the water?

[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
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03/19/2017 08:12 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
Question from Montana, why do you think the dam will fail?
 Quoting: bigD111


There is plenty of discussion. 800 bloody pages worth. If you missed the finer points, please skim it.

They are blessed it is still staniding now. And remember a dam failure does not mean the main dam collapses. Get that out of your head folks.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21185155


I've been following this thread from the beginning. I know what is in the thread. I just am asking a question. From my view, things don't look very dire, so I just wanted to know why you think it will fail!
 Quoting: bigD111


snow melt is upon us and they cant open the Main Spillway more than 50k CFS! how can they deal with 100k inflows?
Anonymous Coward
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03/19/2017 08:15 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
Please look at this KCRA video from Friday --

Pay attention at the extreme beginning (I had to restart it several times)and again at 3:11 to look at the chute structure itself. It looks like new concrete on the structure up above the chutes. Has the whole MS from top to bottom needed to be patched and repaired? Due to the battering/vibrations from the water?

[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24518639


Sorry, folks. I was able to watch this on Youtube but maybe it's KCRA owed video.
bigD111

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03/19/2017 08:16 PM

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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
Question from Montana, why do you think the dam will fail?
 Quoting: bigD111


There is plenty of discussion. 800 bloody pages worth. If you missed the finer points, please skim it.

They are blessed it is still staniding now. And remember a dam failure does not mean the main dam collapses. Get that out of your head folks.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21185155


I've been following this thread from the beginning. I know what is in the thread. I just am asking a question. From my view, things don't look very dire, so I just wanted to know why you think it will fail!
 Quoting: bigD111


snow melt is upon us and they cant open the Main Spillway more than 50k CFS! how can they deal with 100k inflows?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 67858701


I know there is a lot of snow, I had posted before that my cousin in Truckee had 15 feet! It has been melting though hasn't it?
deplorably republican
freddie 0

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03/19/2017 08:18 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
Question from Montana, why do you think the dam will fail?
 Quoting: bigD111


There is plenty of discussion. 800 bloody pages worth. If you missed the finer points, please skim it.

They are blessed it is still staniding now. And remember a dam failure does not mean the main dam collapses. Get that out of your head folks.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21185155


I've been following this thread from the beginning. I know what is in the thread. I just am asking a question. From my view, things don't look very dire, so I just wanted to know why you think it will fail!
 Quoting: bigD111


snow melt is upon us and they cant open the Main Spillway more than 50k CFS! how can they deal with 100k inflows?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 67858701


well, with the MS running at 50,000 CFS and Lake rising and rising
to over 901 ft. the ES goes to work along with the MS
and hope the inflow doesn't overtop the main Dam (they say that's bad.)

no problem.
Anonymous Coward
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03/19/2017 08:18 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
After watching Video of spillway flowing again, my question is where is the water that flows towards the ES going? Huge erosion hole and obvious water on that side. No water flowing down the side of the MS towards the river below though.
Anonymous Coward
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03/19/2017 08:20 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
Why the dam will fail.

Go to the other spillway thread and look on page 76 or 77...The last two pages today.

You will see a video that is being quoted several times with the title of shocking information. Trumpet news site, but Brietbart is on it.

In 2014 a detailed report was done on Oroville. Seepage through the core..The concrete and clay core that should be impervious!! Probably from what they call rotational cracks.

Also, danger of the spillway gates failing due to structural cracks iirc in the cement. The dam was permitted to operate only on an interim basis. They were in a terrible drought with low levels of water at the time.

Brietbart wants info on follow-up but are getting the run around, like demands to file FOI requests. We all know there was no follow-up. This dam should not be operating. Leaks in the core....God have mercy. This dam was only to be operating temporarily during low water.
Anonymous Coward
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03/19/2017 08:23 PM
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...


There is plenty of discussion. 800 bloody pages worth. If you missed the finer points, please skim it.

They are blessed it is still staniding now. And remember a dam failure does not mean the main dam collapses. Get that out of your head folks.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21185155


I've been following this thread from the beginning. I know what is in the thread. I just am asking a question. From my view, things don't look very dire, so I just wanted to know why you think it will fail!
 Quoting: bigD111


snow melt is upon us and they cant open the Main Spillway more than 50k CFS! how can they deal with 100k inflows?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 67858701


I know there is a lot of snow, I had posted before that my cousin in Truckee had 15 feet! It has been melting though hasn't it?
 Quoting: bigD111

I'm from the Midwest, but my guess would be that the high mountain snow pack doesn't really start melting until later April- May.
Anonymous Coward
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03/19/2017 08:23 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
Please look at this KCRA video from Friday --

Pay attention at the extreme beginning (I had to restart it several times)and again at 3:11 to look at the chute structure itself. It looks like new concrete on the structure up above the chutes. Has the whole MS from top to bottom needed to be patched and repaired? Due to the battering/vibrations from the water?

[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24518639


Sorry, folks. I was able to watch this on Youtube but maybe it's KCRA owed video.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24518639


This one works -- again, please look at the chute housing itself and see if you see repairs to that structure itself.

[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
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03/19/2017 08:23 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
Why the dam will fail.

Go to the other spillway thread and look on page 76 or 77...The last two pages today.

You will see a video that is being quoted several times with the title of shocking information. Trumpet news site, but Brietbart is on it.

In 2014 a detailed report was done on Oroville. Seepage through the core..The concrete and clay core that should be impervious!! Probably from what they call rotational cracks.

Also, danger of the spillway gates failing due to structural cracks iirc in the cement. The dam was permitted to operate only on an interim basis. They were in a terrible drought with low levels of water at the time.

Brietbart wants info on follow-up but are getting the run around, like demands to file FOI requests. We all know there was no follow-up. This dam should not be operating. Leaks in the core....God have mercy. This dam was only to be operating temporarily during low water.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74513579


Due to criminal negligence, the dam will collapse.
Anonymous Coward
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03/19/2017 08:25 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
Why the dam will fail.

Go to the other spillway thread and look on page 76 or 77...The last two pages today.

You will see a video that is being quoted several times with the title of shocking information. Trumpet news site, but Brietbart is on it.

In 2014 a detailed report was done on Oroville. Seepage through the core..The concrete and clay core that should be impervious!! Probably from what they call rotational cracks.

Also, danger of the spillway gates failing due to structural cracks iirc in the cement. The dam was permitted to operate only on an interim basis. They were in a terrible drought with low levels of water at the time.

Brietbart wants info on follow-up but are getting the run around, like demands to file FOI requests. We all know there was no follow-up. This dam should not be operating. Leaks in the core....God have mercy. This dam was only to be operating temporarily during low water.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74513579


Page 78 on spillway thread. I am on my phone, somebody please post it, thanks.
Anonymous Coward
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03/19/2017 08:25 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
Question from Montana, why do you think the dam will fail?
 Quoting: bigD111


There is plenty of discussion. 800 bloody pages worth. If you missed the finer points, please skim it.

They are blessed it is still staniding now. And remember a dam failure does not mean the main dam collapses. Get that out of your head folks.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21185155


What would stop the dam from cutting away if one of the spillways collapse?
 Quoting: LJM77


An instant ice age.

Which means nothing. And it is not the actual dam that will cut away. It is the weak wall where a spillway disconnected or eroded.
Anonymous Coward
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03/19/2017 08:27 PM
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...


Ok. Thanks.
 Quoting: bigD111


DWR has a very short list of less than ideal options, given the condition of the main spillway and the limits it imposes for releasing water.

The incoming storms, combined with snowmelt from the current 180-200% of average snowpack, is sure to cause huge increases of inflow to the reservoir.

DWR needs to find a way to move that incoming water out of the reservoir and downstream.

They could run the crippled spillway full bore, which would likely lead to it's destruction, filling the downstream channel with more debris and possibly the failure of the dam itself.

Or they could run the main spillway at reduced capacity as they are doing now, and watch as the water level overtops the Emergency Spillway again, also leading to a debris-choked river channel and possible failure of the dam.

Either way, the result is not good.
 Quoting: Crunch62


No. They. Cannot. Ever. Run. The. MS. Over 50k -- why?

The same thing I said a month and a half ago. Harmonics. It is already cracking at the point where it meets the wall just before the wall o' water. Even at 50k the bounce is tiggerrific.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21185155


Hence my statement that doing so could cause failure of the dam.

What they 'can do' vs what they 'shouldn't do' are two separate things.
 Quoting: Crunch62


Forgive me Crunch. I get testy because I can see the entire scenario in my head on reply. It is f u c d up.
Crunch62
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03/19/2017 08:29 PM

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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
Question from Montana, why do you think the dam will fail?
 Quoting: bigD111


There is plenty of discussion. 800 bloody pages worth. If you missed the finer points, please skim it.

They are blessed it is still staniding now. And remember a dam failure does not mean the main dam collapses. Get that out of your head folks.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21185155


What would stop the dam from cutting away if one of the spillways collapse?
 Quoting: LJM77


There's a damn big chunk of hill/mountainside between the spillway and the dam.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73421978


Not at the top of the spillway. It is right next to the top of the dam abutment.
What the Hell?...
Mchld
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03/19/2017 08:29 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
Please look at this KCRA video from Friday --

Pay attention at the extreme beginning (I had to restart it several times)and again at 3:11 to look at the chute structure itself. It looks like new concrete on the structure up above the chutes. Has the whole MS from top to bottom needed to be patched and repaired? Due to the battering/vibrations from the water?

[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24518639


In one of the last 2 or 3 videos I was sure I saw a crack going from left to right uphill above a panel joint.

This was left side just above a joint near the top of the MS.

There was a close up of the left side, drone was going down hill.

If the MS fails up to the gates I believe it will take out the dam itself. The damn is attached right there to the MS gates.

I think use of the ES is inevitable.
What happens then is anybodies guess.
Anonymous Coward
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03/19/2017 08:32 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
Please look at this KCRA video from Friday --

Pay attention at the extreme beginning (I had to restart it several times)and again at 3:11 to look at the chute structure itself. It looks like new concrete on the structure up above the chutes. Has the whole MS from top to bottom needed to be patched and repaired? Due to the battering/vibrations from the water?

[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24518639


Sorry, folks. I was able to watch this on Youtube but maybe it's KCRA owed video.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24518639


This one works -- again, please look at the chute housing itself and see if you see repairs to that structure itself.

[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24518639


The coloring in the concrete of the building is glaringly different. Some looks very fresh.
Anonymous Coward
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03/19/2017 08:33 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
I believe that they will crank the MS all the way up if they start to lose the fight. They'll first initiate an evacuation order and then let the chips fall. That is the hail Mary in the end...assuming there is still a MS.
 Quoting: LJM77


Here is the issue folks seem to be missing. Several actually.

So they evacuate the nearby folks. Oh Kay. The water is going to continue to flow for about two months is my rough draft. We are talking huge snow melt with no place to store it. This will effect everyone all the way to the bay.

Then -- lets talk seismic activity when most of the weight shifts off that spot. And the faults are already nice and lubed and remember even the experts have said the San andreas is locked and load. That will be the next blow.

So seriously. Time to think about taking a sabbatical or finding a new life in another state. And you can say I am being an alarmist -- call the press office for any of these places working this project. They get jumping real quick.


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