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California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now

 
LJM77

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03/19/2017 09:48 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
This 2 minute long video is titled "Dam-breach experiment, outburst flood from an overtopping lake (summary of USGS study)" and shows a pool of water above a sand dam, that the experimenters allow to breach the dam, and the catastrophic effects that erosion can have... the damage almost grows exponentially!

It's a fun video to watch, and it really put this whole dam experience in a different perspective for me.

I hope you enjoy it, and I hope the description is enough for people like me that hate watching youtube videos on a forum--I think this one is worth it though, because I read it in an Oroville thread almost a month ago--and it really stuck in my mind!

[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Aquarian Age


That's a good representation of what we are facing.
Anonymous Coward
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03/19/2017 09:51 PM
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...


Nope. The water is going to eat away at the spot that gave way and the water will flow. Unless the water goes over the actual dam, it will remain when all is said and done but there will be a huge gaping wound to the left of it (facing the dam).
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21185155


So, Mr. expert...what holds the walls of the little channel next to the dam in place? What keeps them from collapsing? I build lakes and dams. I understand water flow. You are talking out of your ass, respectfully.
 Quoting: LJM77


Information. Nothing more. Nothing less.

You built this dam? Or have you worked on designs of a smaller scale with a more modern flow that comes directly from the dam itself?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21185155


Much smaller scale, but I understand the progression
 Quoting: LJM77


This fail will be a bit different -- especially if it is the MS or ES that starts the failure. The seep has been constant by the MS and the ES (think about puddling). While yes we are talking huge pressure -- the dam is more structural sound then the area at the spillways.

Yes it could slide once the water is gone. but that depends on how much snow melt and rain keep coming into the fails area
JLaw
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03/19/2017 09:54 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
The Weather may choose the dam to survive the year.

Slow warming, dry air, no rain is OK.

Extensive warm rainfall for several days means game over.

Idea is not to give the Weather extra opportunities to teach lessons.


coffee4
 Quoting: Weather 74513924


I think that DWR should take the opportunity to drop the lake elevation as far as they can using whatever means they have available. If that means running it out the spillway down to 813', they should do it.

Then they will have to dredge out the channel again to run the power plant.

But do they have the time for that, before the increased inflows arrive?
 Quoting: Crunch62


They can only lower the water to 835 feet using the main spillway. If they were to use the MS lower than this, it would cause erosion to the soil beneath the lake inside the dam at the entrance to the flood gates.
freddie 0

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03/19/2017 09:59 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
The Weather may choose the dam to survive the year.

Slow warming, dry air, no rain is OK.

Extensive warm rainfall for several days means game over.

Idea is not to give the Weather extra opportunities to teach lessons.


coffee4
 Quoting: Weather 74513924


I think that DWR should take the opportunity to drop the lake elevation as far as they can using whatever means they have available. If that means running it out the spillway down to 813', they should do it.

Then they will have to dredge out the channel again to run the power plant.

But do they have the time for that, before the increased inflows arrive?
 Quoting: Crunch62


They can only lower the water to 835 feet using the main spillway. If they were to use the MS lower than this, it would cause erosion to the soil beneath the lake inside the dam at the entrance to the flood gates.
 Quoting: JLaw 61149157


seems to me that draining he Lake as fast as they can
is what they have been doing since they re-opened the gates yesterday.
but for reasons yet unknown they seem to be cutting back
the CFS,
which means it will take them longer to drain the Lake,
in order to ready to recieve the new incoming.
Anonymous Coward
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03/19/2017 10:04 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
...


There's a damn big chunk of hill/mountainside between the spillway and the dam.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73421978


It is made up of soft tailings. It would cut away in minutes, or less, if there is failure. I've witnessed this up close. Water is extremely powerful...it takes no prisoners.
 Quoting: LJM77


They ran water down that damaged spillway for many days and it only cut a small (relative to the whole size) chunk out of that hill/mountainside. It's not just made of soft tailings. There's a lot of rock in there.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73421978


I'm talking about the top of the spillways. If the MS fails or if the ES fails they will cut across to the dam and take it out. If the MS holds up then there is a chance. They are going to have to run the MS hard.
 Quoting: LJM77


I followed this at metabunk and it sounded iffy. Depending on whose old drafts from the 1960s you look at, the ES is 30,40,50, 60 feet of junk on top of bedrock. But now they say that bedrock has streaks of weathered schist that can crumble and erode. So it is just not safe to use it.
Jlaw
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03/19/2017 10:04 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
The Weather may choose the dam to survive the year.

Slow warming, dry air, no rain is OK.

Extensive warm rainfall for several days means game over.

Idea is not to give the Weather extra opportunities to teach lessons.


coffee4
 Quoting: Weather 74513924


I think that DWR should take the opportunity to drop the lake elevation as far as they can using whatever means they have available. If that means running it out the spillway down to 813', they should do it.

Then they will have to dredge out the channel again to run the power plant.

But do they have the time for that, before the increased inflows arrive?
 Quoting: Crunch62


They can only lower the water to 835 feet using the main spillway. If they were to use the MS lower than this, it would cause erosion to the soil beneath the lake inside the dam at the entrance to the flood gates.
 Quoting: JLaw 61149157


seems to me that draining he Lake as fast as they can
is what they have been doing since they re-opened the gates yesterday.
but for reasons yet unknown they seem to be cutting back
the CFS,
which means it will take them longer to drain the Lake,
in order to ready to recieve the new incoming.
 Quoting: freddie 0


Yeah, I noticed they reduced the outflow to about 48k from 50k. If they maintain this 48k outflow, and there aren't any storms, then they should hit the 835 mark by March 24.
freddie 0

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03/19/2017 10:06 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
...


It is made up of soft tailings. It would cut away in minutes, or less, if there is failure. I've witnessed this up close. Water is extremely powerful...it takes no prisoners.
 Quoting: LJM77


They ran water down that damaged spillway for many days and it only cut a small (relative to the whole size) chunk out of that hill/mountainside. It's not just made of soft tailings. There's a lot of rock in there.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73421978


I'm talking about the top of the spillways. If the MS fails or if the ES fails they will cut across to the dam and take it out. If the MS holds up then there is a chance. They are going to have to run the MS hard.
 Quoting: LJM77


I followed this at metabunk and it sounded iffy. Depending on whose old drafts from the 1960s you look at, the ES is 30,40,50, 60 feet of junk on top of bedrock. But now they say that bedrock has streaks of weathered schist that can crumble and erode. So it is just not safe to use it.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74513579


"iffy" and "dicey" seem to be the by-words in all of this.
LJM77

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03/19/2017 10:15 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
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So, Mr. expert...what holds the walls of the little channel next to the dam in place? What keeps them from collapsing? I build lakes and dams. I understand water flow. You are talking out of your ass, respectfully.
 Quoting: LJM77


Information. Nothing more. Nothing less.

You built this dam? Or have you worked on designs of a smaller scale with a more modern flow that comes directly from the dam itself?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21185155


Much smaller scale, but I understand the progression
 Quoting: LJM77


This fail will be a bit different -- especially if it is the MS or ES that starts the failure. The seep has been constant by the MS and the ES (think about puddling). While yes we are talking huge pressure -- the dam is more structural sound then the area at the spillways.

Yes it could slide once the water is gone. but that depends on how much snow melt and rain keep coming into the fails area
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21185155


Picture a high pressure washer on a mound of dirt starting at the edge. The dam won't collapse, it will be cut away.
Jlaw
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03/19/2017 10:19 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
If anyone is interested, I've been modeling the data obtained from [link to cdec.water.ca.gov]

[link to www.desmos.com (secure)]

Take a look and let me know if you have any questions.
freddie 0

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03/19/2017 10:26 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
...


Information. Nothing more. Nothing less.

You built this dam? Or have you worked on designs of a smaller scale with a more modern flow that comes directly from the dam itself?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21185155


Much smaller scale, but I understand the progression
 Quoting: LJM77


This fail will be a bit different -- especially if it is the MS or ES that starts the failure. The seep has been constant by the MS and the ES (think about puddling). While yes we are talking huge pressure -- the dam is more structural sound then the area at the spillways.

Yes it could slide once the water is gone. but that depends on how much snow melt and rain keep coming into the fails area
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21185155


Picture a high pressure washer on a mound of dirt starting at the edge. The dam won't collapse, it will be cut away.
 Quoting: LJM77


"it will be cut away."..... and away (895 ft), and away (890 ft), and away (885 ft), and away (880 ft)....
and away (870 ft)...
Anonymous Coward
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03/19/2017 10:28 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
...


Information. Nothing more. Nothing less.

You built this dam? Or have you worked on designs of a smaller scale with a more modern flow that comes directly from the dam itself?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21185155


Much smaller scale, but I understand the progression
 Quoting: LJM77


This fail will be a bit different -- especially if it is the MS or ES that starts the failure. The seep has been constant by the MS and the ES (think about puddling). While yes we are talking huge pressure -- the dam is more structural sound then the area at the spillways.

Yes it could slide once the water is gone. but that depends on how much snow melt and rain keep coming into the fails area
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21185155


Picture a high pressure washer on a mound of dirt starting at the edge. The dam won't collapse, it will be cut away.
 Quoting: LJM77


Yes. I have an engineering background. The ES area will cut away first which should keep the dam from being at risk.

Like I said -- information. They are not talking about the ground under the ES for a reason.
LJM77

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03/19/2017 10:34 PM
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Much smaller scale, but I understand the progression
 Quoting: LJM77


This fail will be a bit different -- especially if it is the MS or ES that starts the failure. The seep has been constant by the MS and the ES (think about puddling). While yes we are talking huge pressure -- the dam is more structural sound then the area at the spillways.

Yes it could slide once the water is gone. but that depends on how much snow melt and rain keep coming into the fails area
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21185155


Picture a high pressure washer on a mound of dirt starting at the edge. The dam won't collapse, it will be cut away.
 Quoting: LJM77


Yes. I have an engineering background. The ES area will cut away first which should keep the dam from being at risk.

Like I said -- information. They are not talking about the ground under the ES for a reason.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21185155


You are not an engineer...sorry. What stands in the way of the spillway cutting to the dam...they join each other. Give me specifics please.
Anonymous Coward
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03/19/2017 10:44 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
After watching the video and reading this page of discussion, I'm more nervous than ever. I guess I'll just keeping watch the dam camera and looking at the numbers and weather. Like on the Titanic, The band plays on. trio
AwakenYourselves
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03/19/2017 10:55 PM
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I got banned and they wont let me speak the truth here.

learn the meaning behind crop circles. This is just one of the many phenomena trying to wake us up to what is really going on

awakeningforums.com/thread/316/crop-circles-meaning
Anonymous Coward
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03/19/2017 10:58 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
I got banned and they wont let me speak the truth here.

learn the meaning behind crop circles. This is just one of the many phenomena trying to wake us up to what is really going on

awakeningforums.com/thread/316/crop-circles-meaning
 Quoting: AwakenYourselves 73223188


I'll go have a look, it's got to be better than where this thread has ended up. Bunch of no-it-all's without a standard high school education. LOL
Anonymous Coward
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03/19/2017 11:01 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
Nevermind, that was WORSE than this thread...

NOTHING is going to happen with this dam. Except they will hold on, until summer and they can begin to fully repair it.
This is the end of this threads story.
freddie 0

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03/19/2017 11:01 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
I got banned and they wont let me speak the truth here.

learn the meaning behind crop circles. This is just one of the many phenomena trying to wake us up to what is really going on

awakeningforums.com/thread/316/crop-circles-meaning
 Quoting: AwakenYourselves 73223188


I'll go have a look, it's got to be better than where this thread has ended up. Bunch of no-it-all's without a standard high school education. LOL
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73740180


well, help us out with the crop circle too then.
Crunch62
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03/19/2017 11:16 PM

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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
Nevermind, that was WORSE than this thread...

NOTHING is going to happen with this dam. Except they will hold on, until summer and they can begin to fully repair it.
This is the end of this threads story.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73740180


I hope you are correct. The only real variable is the weather. We are already about 10" above average precipitation for the season (measured at the dam) with more in the forecast. Nearly double the average snowpack in the watershed feeding the reservoir.

If the precipitation over the next two weeks doesn't cause a catastrophe, we may be able to ride it out until repairs can be affected over the summer.
What the Hell?...
Anonymous Coward
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03/19/2017 11:20 PM
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Crop Circles !

bundy-bang7
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03/19/2017 11:37 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
Nevermind, that was WORSE than this thread...

NOTHING is going to happen with this dam. Except they will hold on, until summer and they can begin to fully repair it.
This is the end of this threads story.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73740180


I hope you are correct. The only real variable is the weather. We are already about 10" above average precipitation for the season (measured at the dam) with more in the forecast. Nearly double the average snowpack in the watershed feeding the reservoir.

If the precipitation over the next two weeks doesn't cause a catastrophe, we may be able to ride it out until repairs can be affected over the summer.
 Quoting: Crunch62

Even when the rain snow stops better hope tenperatures don't heat up fast and stay hot for a long period of time causing a rapid snow melt. If the dam makes it through the next couple weeks of rain and it dries out and temperatures don't heat up too fast and the snow melts slowly then the dam might make it. If the snow melts fast then the dam is likely doomed. Of course whether the dam breaks or not likely depends on if the government more important the illuminati wants it ti break. If they really want the dam to break youxcan bet they'll do everything in their power to make sure it does even including blowing up tge dam themselves like they did to the levees in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina if it looks like the rain and snowmelt might not be enough to break it. If anybody lives near the dam if you gear explosions make sure to record it so we can catch them and expose them deliberately trying to break the dam If you do hear explosions make sure to get away and out of anywhere the dam could flood immediately.
HundredthMonkey

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03/19/2017 11:38 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
Picture any one of the 11(?) dams upstream failing. We can assume they were all maintained to California standards, and the spectacular failure of every downstream dam thereafter including Oroville would be a likely possibility.

How would Oroville handle an inrush of water like that?
HundredthMonkey
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03/19/2017 11:45 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
...


Information. Nothing more. Nothing less.

You built this dam? Or have you worked on designs of a smaller scale with a more modern flow that comes directly from the dam itself?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21185155


Much smaller scale, but I understand the progression
 Quoting: LJM77


This fail will be a bit different -- especially if it is the MS or ES that starts the failure. The seep has been constant by the MS and the ES (think about puddling). While yes we are talking huge pressure -- the dam is more structural sound then the area at the spillways.

Yes it could slide once the water is gone. but that depends on how much snow melt and rain keep coming into the fails area
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21185155


Picture a high pressure washer on a mound of dirt starting at the edge. The dam won't collapse, it will be cut away.
 Quoting: LJM77


Larry Silverstein: CUT IT!
Anonymous Coward
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03/19/2017 11:48 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
One inch of rain over the watershed lifts the lake 12 feet.

12 inches of snow equals an inch of rain, give or take.

120 inches of snow is 10 of rain brings the lake up 120 feet.

In some places the snow is over 500 inches. That would bring the lake up 500 feet. This is a rough estimate as surface area changes the deeper it gets.

At 50,000 CFS it takes a day to lower the lake 4 feet.

The math looks bad. Pray for a very slow snowmelt.
freddie 0

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03/19/2017 11:55 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
Picture any one of the 11(?) dams upstream failing. We can assume they were all maintained to California standards, and the spectacular failure of every downstream dam thereafter including Oroville would be a likely possibility.

How would Oroville handle an inrush of water like that?
 Quoting: HundredthMonkey


yes, that's another factor that could be a big part of
the problem too.
because i don't think they have had a chance to release
their water at all.
Anonymous Coward
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03/20/2017 12:17 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
wtf Sneaky people. Dam camera is live and -- there is work going on at the weir area where the cement truck was yesterday. You can see the work lights to the far right in the Overview angle and see it when the camera changes to Aux Spillway. People are waiting for dark. Waiting for us to get tired of click & pausing to see what's what and distracting us here to keep us from watching the camera. WHAT can be the problem over in that area that they need to work in the dark so we don't see?
Anonymous Coward
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03/20/2017 12:17 AM
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[link to www.parks.ca.gov (secure)]
Crunch62
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03/20/2017 12:25 AM

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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
wtf Sneaky people. Dam camera is live and -- there is work going on at the weir area where the cement truck was yesterday. You can see the work lights to the far right in the Overview angle and see it when the camera changes to Aux Spillway. People are waiting for dark. Waiting for us to get tired of click & pausing to see what's what and distracting us here to keep us from watching the camera. WHAT can be the problem over in that area that they need to work in the dark so we don't see?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24518639


I think they are busy creting the ES and parking lot area because they know it is going to come into use within the next couple of weeks.

There are definitely lights in that area now that were not there last night or this morning.
What the Hell?...
Anonymous Coward
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03/20/2017 12:26 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
wtf Sneaky people. Dam camera is live and -- there is work going on at the weir area where the cement truck was yesterday. You can see the work lights to the far right in the Overview angle and see it when the camera changes to Aux Spillway. People are waiting for dark. Waiting for us to get tired of click & pausing to see what's what and distracting us here to keep us from watching the camera. WHAT can be the problem over in that area that they need to work in the dark so we don't see?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24518639


5a Why is it necessary to hide this work at night and what is so important about this location?
Anonymous Coward
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03/20/2017 12:35 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
wtf Sneaky people. Dam camera is live and -- there is work going on at the weir area where the cement truck was yesterday. You can see the work lights to the far right in the Overview angle and see it when the camera changes to Aux Spillway. People are waiting for dark. Waiting for us to get tired of click & pausing to see what's what and distracting us here to keep us from watching the camera. WHAT can be the problem over in that area that they need to work in the dark so we don't see?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24518639


5a Why is it necessary to hide this work at night and what is so important about this location?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24518639


You can see the arm of either an excavator or backhoe scooping or placing stuff.
Anonymous Coward
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03/20/2017 12:46 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Happening Now
wtf Sneaky people. Dam camera is live and -- there is work going on at the weir area where the cement truck was yesterday. You can see the work lights to the far right in the Overview angle and see it when the camera changes to Aux Spillway. People are waiting for dark. Waiting for us to get tired of click & pausing to see what's what and distracting us here to keep us from watching the camera. WHAT can be the problem over in that area that they need to work in the dark so we don't see?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24518639


I think they are busy creting the ES and parking lot area because they know it is going to come into use within the next couple of weeks.

There are definitely lights in that area now that were not there last night or this morning.
 Quoting: Crunch62


They are not using the cement pumper. You can see the arm swing back and forth moving/placing something. Could they be putting big boulders there like they lined the river shore with across from the MS? I don't know why they couldn't do this in daylight other than to let people know that the MS is not going to be enough and don't want to panic people. Better to be honest!


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