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California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.

 
Anonymous Coward
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03/20/2017 10:35 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
Wouldn't this just be faster for all of us:


I live in Oroville. Actually 2 blocks from the river. Part of me believes that absolutely nothing will happen. We will make it through this run off. It's a YUGGE mountain, ALOT of erosion of the mountainside would have to happen to "lose" the MS or ES. The pictures & flyover's don't really show the mountainside very well, but if the MS is 15 car lanes wide,
consider how vast the mountainside is that's holding everything up. I have no "faith" in either the MS or ES because right now, I only hope that the water doesn't cut under the mountainside at top.

The second worry is:
Not seeing this "plume cloud"/spray up as reported does bother me though. That tells me that the hole is bigger, deeper and water found other ways to travel besides bouncing off of the bedrock like it was. I don't believe reducing the CFMs from 50 to 48 caused the plume to reduce/cease, The water as found an easier travel route, or something has given way it's resistance.

These are only my opinions. Nothing more.
bigD111

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03/20/2017 10:51 PM

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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
Wouldn't this just be faster for all of us:


I live in Oroville. Actually 2 blocks from the river. Part of me believes that absolutely nothing will happen. We will make it through this run off. It's a YUGGE mountain, ALOT of erosion of the mountainside would have to happen to "lose" the MS or ES. The pictures & flyover's don't really show the mountainside very well, but if the MS is 15 car lanes wide,
consider how vast the mountainside is that's holding everything up. I have no "faith" in either the MS or ES because right now, I only hope that the water doesn't cut under the mountainside at top.

The second worry is:
Not seeing this "plume cloud"/spray up as reported does bother me though. That tells me that the hole is bigger, deeper and water found other ways to travel besides bouncing off of the bedrock like it was. I don't believe reducing the CFMs from 50 to 48 caused the plume to reduce/cease, The water as found an easier travel route, or something has given way it's resistance.

These are only my opinions. Nothing more.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74246783


It would be nice to know if it was eroding the base of the dam!
deplorably republican
freddie 0

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03/20/2017 10:53 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
Wouldn't this just be faster for all of us:


I live in Oroville. Actually 2 blocks from the river. Part of me believes that absolutely nothing will happen. We will make it through this run off. It's a YUGGE mountain, ALOT of erosion of the mountainside would have to happen to "lose" the MS or ES. The pictures & flyover's don't really show the mountainside very well, but if the MS is 15 car lanes wide,
consider how vast the mountainside is that's holding everything up. I have no "faith" in either the MS or ES because right now, I only hope that the water doesn't cut under the mountainside at top.

The second worry is:
Not seeing this "plume cloud"/spray up as reported does bother me though. That tells me that the hole is bigger, deeper and water found other ways to travel besides bouncing off of the bedrock like it was. I don't believe reducing the CFMs from 50 to 48 caused the plume to reduce/cease, The water as found an easier travel route, or something has given way it's resistance.

These are only my opinions. Nothing more.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74246783


well, thanks for posting Oroville AC.

yup. the "Mountain" is 935 feet high.

and things a slow right now because we really need
to see some stuff happen before we can make any intelligent suppositions.
Anonymous Coward
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03/20/2017 10:53 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
Wouldn't this just be faster for all of us:


I live in Oroville. Actually 2 blocks from the river. Part of me believes that absolutely nothing will happen. We will make it through this run off. It's a YUGGE mountain, ALOT of erosion of the mountainside would have to happen to "lose" the MS or ES. The pictures & flyover's don't really show the mountainside very well, but if the MS is 15 car lanes wide,
consider how vast the mountainside is that's holding everything up. I have no "faith" in either the MS or ES because right now, I only hope that the water doesn't cut under the mountainside at top.

The second worry is:
Not seeing this "plume cloud"/spray up as reported does bother me though. That tells me that the hole is bigger, deeper and water found other ways to travel besides bouncing off of the bedrock like it was. I don't believe reducing the CFMs from 50 to 48 caused the plume to reduce/cease, The water as found an easier travel route, or something has given way it's resistance.

These are only my opinions. Nothing more.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74246783


alone I didn't think of the water finding a new easier travel route. But the rain creek in our backyard has changed and sculpt our property so I shouldn't be surprised at the idea.
freddie 0

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03/20/2017 11:24 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
just read an article that says they have already
spent $188 Billion Dollars trying to clean-up Fukushima.

and that's obviously not enough.
freddie 0

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03/20/2017 11:30 PM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
also, the Mandatory Evacuation Zone in Fukushima Prefecture
is still closed indefinitely.
but there is a perimeter zone that was also evacuated,
and those people are now being forced to move back into
their homes and businesses. (the Government has cut-off
their support payments)
Anonymous Coward
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03/21/2017 12:35 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
Wouldn't this just be faster for all of us:


I live in Oroville. Actually 2 blocks from the river. Part of me believes that absolutely nothing will happen. We will make it through this run off. It's a YUGGE mountain, ALOT of erosion of the mountainside would have to happen to "lose" the MS or ES. The pictures & flyover's don't really show the mountainside very well, but if the MS is 15 car lanes wide,
consider how vast the mountainside is that's holding everything up. I have no "faith" in either the MS or ES because right now, I only hope that the water doesn't cut under the mountainside at top.

The second worry is:
Not seeing this "plume cloud"/spray up as reported does bother me though. That tells me that the hole is bigger, deeper and water found other ways to travel besides bouncing off of the bedrock like it was. I don't believe reducing the CFMs from 50 to 48 caused the plume to reduce/cease, The water as found an easier travel route, or something has given way it's resistance.

These are only my opinions. Nothing more.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74246783


It would be nice to know if it was eroding the base of the dam!
 Quoting: bigD111

I hadn't thought of that. I should have after seeing that "river valve" eroded and cavitation ( as well as not replaced), oh but isn't the base like 360 tons of concrete?
Anonymous Coward
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Poland
03/21/2017 06:41 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
2PM:

Elevation: 849.80
Outflows: 45,937
Inflows: 23,178
River Rel.: 46,764

3PM;

Elevation: 849.80
Outflows: 45,943
Inflows: 35,545
River Rel.: 47,070


There ya go...we may have seen the last elevation drop, if the rain keeps up as predicted!
Anonymous Coward
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Poland
03/21/2017 06:44 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
Wouldn't this just be faster for all of us:


I live in Oroville. Actually 2 blocks from the river. Part of me believes that absolutely nothing will happen. We will make it through this run off. It's a YUGGE mountain, ALOT of erosion of the mountainside would have to happen to "lose" the MS or ES. The pictures & flyover's don't really show the mountainside very well, but if the MS is 15 car lanes wide,
consider how vast the mountainside is that's holding everything up. I have no "faith" in either the MS or ES because right now, I only hope that the water doesn't cut under the mountainside at top.

The second worry is:
Not seeing this "plume cloud"/spray up as reported does bother me though. That tells me that the hole is bigger, deeper and water found other ways to travel besides bouncing off of the bedrock like it was. I don't believe reducing the CFMs from 50 to 48 caused the plume to reduce/cease, The water as found an easier travel route, or something has given way it's resistance.

These are only my opinions. Nothing more.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74246783


A LOCAL!!! Awesome.

Thanks for checking in.

PLEASE TAKE ZERO RISKS THOUGH, and be ready to leave at a moment's notice.

Hey, do they have sirens that go off loud enough for everyone to hear in a dead sleep there in town if there's an emergency?

What's the scuttlebutt from the workers? Are they talking, or have they been gagged?

TIA...
Anonymous Coward
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Poland
03/21/2017 06:56 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
2.5" of rain over the next 36 hours according to NWS...
Anonymous Coward
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Poland
03/21/2017 06:58 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
A break on Thursday, and then 2" more on Friday and Saturday...
Anonymous Coward
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Poland
03/21/2017 07:20 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
4PM:

Elevation: 849.48
Outflows: 45,719
Inflows: 20,130
River Rel.: 46,884
Anonymous Coward
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Poland
03/21/2017 08:21 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
5PM:

Elevation: 849.37
Outflows: 45,586
Inflows: 10,027
River Rel.: 46,769
Anonymous Coward
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Poland
03/21/2017 08:22 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
OOOPS... those last two posts are obviously AM.
AquaBrat

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03/21/2017 08:28 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
QUESTION:

There is a before/after picture of some waterway out west that shows how the water level dropped significantly. EDIT: it's a lake or something.

Is this near CA?

Wondering what it looks like NOW , if anyone can find out. I'll look for the original picture

Last Edited by AquaBrat on 03/21/2017 08:29 AM
hi
Anonymous Coward
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Poland
03/21/2017 09:05 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
Dawn is coming soon. What will we see?
Boris the Cat

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03/21/2017 09:05 AM

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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
Dawn is coming soon. What will we see?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 69623682


a bunch of water
Anonymous Coward
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Poland
03/21/2017 09:18 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
6AM:

Elevation: 849.25
Outflows: 45,611
Inflows: 27,123
River Rel.: 46,616

Outflows still steadily declining...
Anonymous Coward
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03/21/2017 09:59 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
Once the MS gnaws back to the flatter portion, there will be less plume as there won't be much of a drop off. It will erode back to the gate structure pretty quick as the sub base is just loose tailings. Lack of rebar won't help matters.
Anonymous Coward
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Poland
03/21/2017 10:18 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
7AM:

Elevation: 849.22
Outflows: 45,616
Inflows: 34,187
River Rel.: 46,273
Anonymous Coward
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03/21/2017 10:37 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
The ca dwr twitter page says 40k cfs release from MS and 6540 cfs from Hyatt power planet. This tells the river channel is still open because the power plant is operating. The reduced CFS of the spillway suggest that maybe 50k was pushing too much debris into the diversion pool. With 40k they can still drain the lake and prevented the pool from rising and blocking the power plant outlet .
-Adam-

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03/21/2017 10:40 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
...


Pretty crazy how the spray disappeared. I wonder if another chunk of the MS broke off??
 Quoting: LJM77


Most likely. that thing has been eroding for a while already. The original hole was tiny.
 Quoting: Pactallon 54552529


[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Pactallon 54552529


Thanks for finding and posting this. Am I crazy -- I do not see any part of the bottom half of the MS. There's the break up top and the rest looks to be all rocks from there down.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24518639


When they dredged that river, they removed a lot of earth, which should let the land further up come crashing down.
Anonymous Coward
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03/21/2017 10:41 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
Wouldn't this just be faster for all of us:


I live in Oroville. Actually 2 blocks from the river. Part of me believes that absolutely nothing will happen. We will make it through this run off. It's a YUGGE mountain, ALOT of erosion of the mountainside would have to happen to "lose" the MS or ES. The pictures & flyover's don't really show the mountainside very well, but if the MS is 15 car lanes wide,
consider how vast the mountainside is that's holding everything up. I have no "faith" in either the MS or ES because right now, I only hope that the water doesn't cut under the mountainside at top.

The second worry is:
Not seeing this "plume cloud"/spray up as reported does bother me though. That tells me that the hole is bigger, deeper and water found other ways to travel besides bouncing off of the bedrock like it was. I don't believe reducing the CFMs from 50 to 48 caused the plume to reduce/cease, The water as found an easier travel route, or something has given way it's resistance.

These are only my opinions. Nothing more.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74246783


A LOCAL!!! Awesome.

Thanks for checking in.

PLEASE TAKE ZERO RISKS THOUGH, and be ready to leave at a moment's notice.

Hey, do they have sirens that go off loud enough for everyone to hear in a dead sleep there in town if there's an emergency?

What's the scuttlebutt from the workers? Are they talking, or have they been gagged?

TIA...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 69623682

No, they don't have those cool sirens like the East Coast does for emergency's. The lady I work with Father helped build the dam & she believes completely that it will hold. The workers haven't really been seen around town at all. I have no idea where they stay. I live in downtown, which you'd think you'd see a lot of new people, but they are coming and going the back way, off of 70 & 162.
For me there are so many things that could go wrong with the spillway, but I am mostly concerned with the mountain. I keep wondering about saturation. I mean how long will it be before the entire mountain is just saturated and begin slides? They aren't in a position to "fix" anything, they are operating strictly on "risk mitigation". Normally the mountain "saturation" would have never happened, except now the 48 cfms are simply hitting the mountain, not the spillway. They have no choice but to open and close all spring run off. No matter what it's going to be a rough 6 months, but I think any earth movement, will end the debate. We had for the first time that I can remember that 2.0 EQ in Chico a week or so ago, and then in Durham. So earth movement or a sudden burst of one of the upper dams are my main concerns, as well as saturation of upper mountain pulling on spillway. I probably have this saturation thing blown out of proportion, but I can't help but think of a napkin spread out on a cone with the bottom of it in water and feeling eventually it will work its way up and soak the entire thing, after all there is a lot of "dirt" in between those huge bedrock holding the dam up. I'm ready as I ever will be to "go". Their evacuation plan for us seems pretty stupid to me also. Half of us are suppose to go North towards Chico, and half towards Gridley/Yuba City South.
There is no way I would go South, that's "lower" than here. And btw, that cement driver ( that poor man that lost his life ), what people may not know about Hwy 70 is that there are stretches from Marysville to Oroville on 70 that have run-off ditches. These run-off ditches are REALLY close to the highway, its a 2 lane highway there and the run off ditches run along side the highway and are at least 3-4 feet deep. My good friend was turning into her driveway off of 70, missed her driveway hit the ditch and wound up upside down in her car. The ditches are 3-4 deep and about 3 ft wide. They always scare me driving, cause one false move, like stopping to swerve for an animal, could land you in one of those ditches. It's a stupid design, and I'm guessing something to that effect happened to that poor driver. So again, going South on 70, during an evacuation, for me, FORGET IT.
Deplorable Ralph--a house dog

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03/21/2017 11:01 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
also, the Mandatory Evacuation Zone in Fukushima Prefecture
is still closed indefinitely.
but there is a perimeter zone that was also evacuated,
and those people are now being forced to move back into
their homes and businesses. (the Government has cut-off
their support payments)
 Quoting: freddie 0


I wish everyone would boycott the 2020 Olympics. That's why Japan is forcing people to move back and be radiated. Fuck the Olympics and a HUUUUGE Fuck Tempco.
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Anonymous Coward
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03/21/2017 11:12 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
Wouldn't this just be faster for all of us:


I live in Oroville. Actually 2 blocks from the river. Part of me believes that absolutely nothing will happen. We will make it through this run off. It's a YUGGE mountain, ALOT of erosion of the mountainside would have to happen to "lose" the MS or ES. The pictures & flyover's don't really show the mountainside very well, but if the MS is 15 car lanes wide,
consider how vast the mountainside is that's holding everything up. I have no "faith" in either the MS or ES because right now, I only hope that the water doesn't cut under the mountainside at top.

The second worry is:
Not seeing this "plume cloud"/spray up as reported does bother me though. That tells me that the hole is bigger, deeper and water found other ways to travel besides bouncing off of the bedrock like it was. I don't believe reducing the CFMs from 50 to 48 caused the plume to reduce/cease, The water as found an easier travel route, or something has given way it's resistance.

These are only my opinions. Nothing more.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74246783


alone I didn't think of the water finding a new easier travel route. But the rain creek in our backyard has changed and sculpt our property so I shouldn't be surprised at the idea.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24518639


The path of least resistance, buddy boy. The path of least resistance!
Anonymous Coward
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Poland
03/21/2017 11:14 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
Wouldn't this just be faster for all of us:


I live in Oroville. Actually 2 blocks from the river. Part of me believes that absolutely nothing will happen. We will make it through this run off. It's a YUGGE mountain, ALOT of erosion of the mountainside would have to happen to "lose" the MS or ES. The pictures & flyover's don't really show the mountainside very well, but if the MS is 15 car lanes wide,
consider how vast the mountainside is that's holding everything up. I have no "faith" in either the MS or ES because right now, I only hope that the water doesn't cut under the mountainside at top.

The second worry is:
Not seeing this "plume cloud"/spray up as reported does bother me though. That tells me that the hole is bigger, deeper and water found other ways to travel besides bouncing off of the bedrock like it was. I don't believe reducing the CFMs from 50 to 48 caused the plume to reduce/cease, The water as found an easier travel route, or something has given way it's resistance.

These are only my opinions. Nothing more.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74246783


A LOCAL!!! Awesome.

Thanks for checking in.

PLEASE TAKE ZERO RISKS THOUGH, and be ready to leave at a moment's notice.

Hey, do they have sirens that go off loud enough for everyone to hear in a dead sleep there in town if there's an emergency?

What's the scuttlebutt from the workers? Are they talking, or have they been gagged?

TIA...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 69623682

No, they don't have those cool sirens like the East Coast does for emergency's. The lady I work with Father helped build the dam & she believes completely that it will hold. The workers haven't really been seen around town at all.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74246783


Thanks for the further details.

Interesting...no contact with locals allowed, I suppose?

I am not sure what you're concern with "saturation" is about, can you explain what you mean by that? I mean, this is a dam, so isn't it usually saturated?
Anonymous Coward
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Poland
03/21/2017 11:18 AM
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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
8AM:

Elevation: 849.07
Outflows: 45,550
Inflows: 31,089
River Rel.: 46,355
Crunch62
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03/21/2017 11:21 AM

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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
No, they don't have those cool sirens like the East Coast does for emergency's. The lady I work with Father helped build the dam & she believes completely that it will hold. The workers haven't really been seen around town at all. I have no idea where they stay. I live in downtown, which you'd think you'd see a lot of new people, but they are coming and going the back way, off of 70 & 162.
For me there are so many things that could go wrong with the spillway, but I am mostly concerned with the mountain. I keep wondering about saturation. I mean how long will it be before the entire mountain is just saturated and begin slides? They aren't in a position to "fix" anything, they are operating strictly on "risk mitigation". Normally the mountain "saturation" would have never happened, except now the 48 cfms are simply hitting the mountain, not the spillway. They have no choice but to open and close all spring run off. No matter what it's going to be a rough 6 months, but I think any earth movement, will end the debate. We had for the first time that I can remember that 2.0 EQ in Chico a week or so ago, and then in Durham. So earth movement or a sudden burst of one of the upper dams are my main concerns, as well as saturation of upper mountain pulling on spillway. I probably have this saturation thing blown out of proportion, but I can't help but think of a napkin spread out on a cone with the bottom of it in water and feeling eventually it will work its way up and soak the entire thing, after all there is a lot of "dirt" in between those huge bedrock holding the dam up. I'm ready as I ever will be to "go". Their evacuation plan for us seems pretty stupid to me also. Half of us are suppose to go North towards Chico, and half towards Gridley/Yuba City South.
There is no way I would go South, that's "lower" than here. And btw, that cement driver ( that poor man that lost his life ), what people may not know about Hwy 70 is that there are stretches from Marysville to Oroville on 70 that have run-off ditches. These run-off ditches are REALLY close to the highway, its a 2 lane highway there and the run off ditches run along side the highway and are at least 3-4 feet deep. My good friend was turning into her driveway off of 70, missed her driveway hit the ditch and wound up upside down in her car. The ditches are 3-4 deep and about 3 ft wide. They always scare me driving, cause one false move, like stopping to swerve for an animal, could land you in one of those ditches. It's a stupid design, and I'm guessing something to that effect happened to that poor driver. So again, going South on 70, during an evacuation, for me, FORGET IT.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74246783


I drove 70 every day to and from work for 12 years. I had several close calls, went into the ditch twice to avoid being hit head on, witnessed many accidents and watched a couple of people die. I WILL NOT drive on 70 any more between Oroville/Marysville. Period.

I am south of Oroville at the eastern edge of 'evacuation zone 10'. The most direct evacuation route for us would be east toward Bangor. Because that road floods when it rains, they want us to head north (toward the dam) when evacuating. How stupid is that?
What the Hell?...
Cavjock12

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03/21/2017 11:41 AM

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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
new storms coming?
Follower of Jesus Christ
Deplorable
Separation of Church and State is NOT in the Constitution.
Crunch62
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03/21/2017 11:42 AM

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Re: California's Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severly Damaged/Eroded. Repairs Expected Soon.
new storms coming?
 Quoting: Cavjock12


It is raining pretty hard right now.

[link to radar.weather.gov (secure)]
What the Hell?...


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