I wish the freefall doomsayers were right, but they are making the mistake of looking at the current economy though it were a completely rational entity. Countries like Japan and China have inseparably linked their economies to the US and if the US goes down, they go with it. They're not going to let that happen. For a smaller example, look at the Japanese S&L crisis and how foreign countries propped them up to keep their own economies afloat.

Never underestimate the government response (or gall) in situations like this. The government has been playing a few sleight of hand tricks with the figures and such up till now, they haven't even opened the bag of dirty tricks yet. Have you noticed how the markets have been acting strangely when Bernanke or Greenspan open their mouths? This will become standard as more government interference becomes commonplace. Technical analysis will quietly become less and less relevant as money begins to move based on where the governments say it should go.