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So Cali's first storm next week?

 
Kevin Martin
User ID: 293868
United States
09/14/2007 03:51 PM
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So Cali's first storm next week?
Saw this a week ago. Looks possible now. Getting more and more confident.

Winter Storm Avery, the first winter storm of 2007-2008 season may come in the form of a cut off low from the North sometime between September 19 and the 22nd. This would definitely cool temperatures down and even bring a chance of thunderstorms to spots.
This feature would bring strong Northerly winds along the Coastal Central California area which would make driving hazardous as well so stay tuned to OWS for the latest forecasts on it.

Kevin Martin
OntarioWeatherService
Kevin Martin
User ID: 272605
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09/15/2007 03:37 AM
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Re: So Cali's first storm next week?
this is a cutoff system yes, and this is a very potent one at that. The vorticy advection that will come in will be in a sharp gradient. That, combined with these warmer temps vs this colder low, with moisture in it creating a gradient of dry South Moist north will be enough to fire off convective activity.

Maybe high elevation snow? First snowfall is possible with this. Such an event happened several years back around this time. Code name was "Dusty" Only a dusting of snow was forecasted when a heck of a lot more hit with a cutoff low similar to this. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds.

If it goes more over water we will certainly see more moisture, and more thunderstorms. Snow level looks really good as of now with possible levels under 7,000 Feet? Very cool system, and I only hope the storm stays on track. More to come on this "developing" situation.


Did all that today. Remember! The fun of it is the names. Southern California deserves the naming like the Gulf States of the hurricane season;)

I'm not sure what category this looks like so far and will determine it as it gets closer but its on the medium end scale I can tell you that much.

WINTER STORM AVERY in case you choose to mention or blog it, or whatever you choose. Have a good one, and school is doing fine.

Kevin Martin
OntarioWeatherService.Com
Chuck

User ID: 85992
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09/15/2007 03:46 AM
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Re: So Cali's first storm next week?
Will this move east and dump some snow in Colorado?
Kay

User ID: 286927
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09/15/2007 03:54 AM
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Re: So Cali's first storm next week?
Please, please, please!

We need rain soooooo bad!
"See to it that no one takes you captive through hollow and deceptive philosophy, which depends on human tradition and the basic principles of this world rather than on Christ." (Colossians 2:8)
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 185055
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09/15/2007 03:58 AM
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Re: So Cali's first storm next week?
Right in the middle of a heat wave?
Kevin Martin
User ID: 272605
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09/15/2007 04:05 AM
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Re: So Cali's first storm next week?
It will probably die in Utah as it comes out of California and Nevada.
hatch battener
User ID: 298221
United States
09/15/2007 04:22 AM
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Re: So Cali's first storm next week?
Kev, what about the looming Tropical Storm Ingrid? From the historical tracks, of all September tropical storms within 200 miles of Ingrid, it includes the track of what became the deadliest natural disaster in the history of the United States. The Galveston hurricane of 1900-
[link to www.wunderground.com]
Wiki describes the aftermath of the 1900 hurricane which hit Galveston, on the same track as TS Ingrid is right now-

"The citizens of Houston knew a powerful storm had blown through and had made ready to provide assistance. Workers set out by rail and ship for the island almost immediately. Rescuers arrived to find the city completely destroyed. Eight thousand people—20% of the island’s population—had lost their lives. Most had drowned or been crushed as the waves pounded the debris that had been their homes hours earlier. Many survived the storm itself, but died after several days trapped under the wreckage of the city, with rescuers unable to reach them. The rescuers could hear the screams of the survivors as they walked on the debris trying to rescue those they could. They realized that there was no hope.

The bodies were so numerous that burial was not a viable option. Initially, the dead were taken out to sea and dumped; however, the currents of the gulf washed the bodies back onto the beach, so a new solution was needed.[12] Funeral pyres were set up wherever the dead were found. In the aftermath of the storm, pyres burned for weeks. Authorities had to pass out free whiskey to the work crews that were having to throw the bodies of their wives and children on the burn piles.[8]

More people were killed in this single storm than have been killed in the over three hundred hurricanes that have struck the United States since, combined, as of 2006. Thus, the Galveston Hurricane of 1900 remains the deadliest natural disaster in U.S. history."

[link to en.wikipedia.org]

hiding
Kevin Martin
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09/15/2007 04:26 AM
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Re: So Cali's first storm next week?
A cold front going through the Eastern USA right now is strong enough, and far enough South to take this away from the United States. I believe that the track of this will be a "fish" storm and no more will be heard from it as it turns away from the USA.
john
User ID: 298468
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09/15/2007 05:18 PM
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Re: So Cali's first storm next week?
so ken are you really sure this will happen???
Kevin Martin (OP)
User ID: 293868
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09/15/2007 08:48 PM
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Re: So Cali's first storm next week?
yes
Kevin Martin (OP)
User ID: 293868
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09/16/2007 06:31 AM
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Re: So Cali's first storm next week?
September 16, 2007 - Winter Storm Avery is still on track to the forecast area. At this time snow levels look awfully high so leaving that out right now. The main thing with this is the cold air aloft and vorticy advection associated with it. This, and mid/upper jet dynamics will cause widespread thunderstorms if the pattern hold late week. Plan accordingly. OWS forecasts for the system officially start 3 days before so it will be on Monday about. It will then be assigned the first Category number of the 2007-2008 Winter Storm Season.
Dj Kirby
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09/17/2007 12:54 AM
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Re: So Cali's first storm next week?
so Kevin Martin how much rain are we expecting in L.A on Thursday and Friday from the storm?
or is it mainly affecting the high regions like Ontario?
Kevin Martin (OP)
User ID: 293868
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09/18/2007 07:57 PM
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Re: So Cali's first storm next week?
I'm expecting it across the ENTIRE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AREA.

here is my latest.

Category - Dynamics include Moderate Rain, Moderate Winds, and Severe Thunderstorms possible. This is a Category 4 status.

Winter Storm Avery is still on forecast to OWS models 11 days ago. GFS has it right in line with the forecast however we still think a bit closer to the coastal areas. On Thursday, Avery will enter the San Luis Obispo forecast area. Most of the moisture will be offshore, but at this time thunderstorms are in the forecast for the folks there as Avery's cold air aloft -22C moves in by Morning. This on top of +5C at 850mb is enough for thunderstorms to form in the steep lapse rates. Left exit mid level jet region will aid in the upper divergence need for thunderstorms so I don't see why they wouldn't form. Moisture is not going to be in the areas East of Los Angeles so nothing storm or rain wise will be forecast there. Mid level clouds would be the story there as the jet stream would be directly overhead so expect some good photo ops.
By Thursday Night scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible from San Luis Obispo to Santa Barbara and on up into Bakersfield as Avery slides Southwest of the Vandenberg Coastal areas and brings in more moisture from the South. Snow level would be at 8,500 Feet over the Ventura County Mountains into Tehachapi.
By Friday is where things get interesting for areas West of Los Angeles. Avery takes a more negative tilt which means the dynamics on that side will be for more superior for thunderstorm action than San Luis Obispo would have seen. The vorticy advection starts moving in, and over the day we will have a strengthening of the mid level jet, and upper divergence zone across Los Angeles, Orange County, The Inland Empire, Local Mountains, and High Desert regions. At this time, Avery would be offshore 20 miles Southwest of Point Conception or Vandenberg. I am keeping numerous thunderstorms in the forecast for the entire central forecast area, but the last chances would exist in the San Diego area due to proximity of the storm center and associated dynamics.
Snow level Friday would be around 10,000 Feet for Big Bear however a good thunderstorm could lower it a couple thousand feet so remember it for all the snow levels I mention. Snow level would be above the rim of the world area. a +12C temp at 850mb would keep it warm enough for just rain. Wrightwood area snow level would be around 9,000 Feet. Ventura County Mountains snow level will be around 8,500 Feet. Tehachapi Mountains at 9,000 Feet. A decrease in the action on over Friday Night as the dryslot in the mid levels makes it's way into the forecast area. So dropping those numerous thunderstorms from the forecast because of that. Avery will shift to the North and East throughout the night, taking dynamics up North.
Snow Level Friday Night would drop overnight to 7,000 Feet with any thunderstorms a bit lower for Big Bear to Wrightwood.
By Saturday most of the action should be North and East of the forecast


Winds look moderate with this system. Will likely need wind advisories as early as Wednesday for the Tehachapi Mountains and Antelope Valleys as Avery's mid level jet moves overhead.
Strong Southerly winds on the West side of this system will be offshore Oregon at this time. This would provide a force to develop stronger winds in this jet and strengthen the surface wind fields in many spots.
Thursday the jet increases and 40+ mph winds will be likely over the High Desert spots, and local mountains, including some of the Tehachapi zones. These winds are moving from the South-Southwest so Mountain waves surfacing into the Palm Springs/Lucerne Valley areas as 40+ mph gusts are possible.
This would only increase in Friday for all the mentioned areas as a 75 knot mid level jet develops overhead. This would mean 50-55 mph gusts for the High Desert regions, Coachella Valley as mountain waves surfacing, and local mountains. This is OWS High Wind Warning Criteria and it will be looked in further.
By Saturday the winds would drop below the Wind Warning criteria and return to Wind Advisory level 30-40 mph gusts from the South ending by Evening.
Anonymous Coward
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09/18/2007 08:21 PM
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Re: So Cali's first storm next week?
bsflag

ass. pos. kma. die
Kevin Martin (OP)
User ID: 293868
United States
09/18/2007 08:48 PM
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Re: So Cali's first storm next week?
Again, I'll be back when the storm hits to say HAHA to the bs'rs.
sa
User ID: 299062
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09/19/2007 06:18 PM
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Re: So Cali's first storm next week?
this is gonna be one strong storm

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