******* US housing market in freefall dive - RECESSION NEXT!!!

RECESSION ALREADY!!

wait until we finally blow the dollar off as far as being the reserve curreny.

then ya gonna feel pain.

snippet

In Frankfurt, the European Central Bank yesterday lent €3.9bn at its 5pc penalty rate, the highest volume of lending at this window in three years.
advertisement

There was widespread speculation on trading floors that a Spanish bank with exposure to the country's housing bubble was running into trouble. The need for any lender to raise money on this scale at such a cost suggests that the eurozone's interbank system is still under stress.

"We're still a long way from resolving this whole crisis," said Robert McAdie, head of credit at Barclays Capital. "Banks are not willing to lend to each other beyond a week. The current situation is more systemic than the crisis in 1998. It effects far more institutions and will have a much greater impact on the global economy."

He said the relief rally in stock markets since the Fed slashed rates would come face to face with reality soon enough. "The equity markets are pricing in a 'Bernanke Put'. They are betting that the Fed will cut again and again, but they not factoring in the effect that this credit squeeze is having on the financial system," he said. "Cheap money is now history. There are not going to be any more of the big leveraged buy-out deals for a long time because the CLO [collateralised loan obligations] market that financed them is effectively closed," he said.

The Bank of Montreal, Canada's fourth largest lender, revealed yesterday that it had been unable to roll over some of its asset-backed commercial paper. The bank has put aside $42.7bn in back-up liquidity lines to cover its conduits, the investment vehicles used by banks that are kept off balance sheets.

Depression NEXT

were i live people have begun to lock and load if you know what i mean. empty store selves hinting something creepy is just around the corner. see it in their eyes kinda like the movie good bad and the ugly scene who will pull the trigger first..i will without a doubt.

i remember the economic downturn in 79 & 80
this is a lot worse.never saw so many homes
empty and for sale. this is a depression!

I agree with you.

I guess I might feel some pain if only I can figure out what "curreny" is.

Fuck no. We're just waiting until the price is right to come in and buy up what is left.

Everything will be fine. Go back in your homes.

One more day.

I've got some money in Gold - thank God!

And when the bottom arrives I'll use that money to buy houses near the major cities but not in them. I think I canand will buy 1m worth of houses for something like 250k or a little less.

That will in turn go back up to about 4mil in the next ten years. Just a waiting game. People have to live somewhere and we won't be broke forever. The US will start working again.

Eventually.

If you have money put it in Euros at a reliable world bank like HSBC Direct. Us dollars in gold means nothing as the dollar plummets. Must use Euros or another strong currency

Great b-plan... unless our enemies are awaiting our financial "meltdown" while the USA is in a very weak position, in order to strike bigtime... seems like that is the kind of strategy taught in WAR 101 Class...

Wait until we stop manufacturing airplanes, fixing airplanes and flying airplanes. The YOU are going to feel the pain.

Builders Use Splashy Campaigns, Auctions, To Clear Out Inventory
September 21, 2007: 08:05 PM EST


Sep. 21, 2007 (Investor's Business Daily delivered by Newstex) --

With slogans like "Deal of the Century" and "Mission: Possible," home builders are launching campaigns to sell off a large backlog of houses.

Luxury builder Hovnanian hov attracted the most attention with a three-day sale earlier this month that combined incentives and discounts, effectively slashing prices by as much as $100,000.

Standard Pacific spf, meanwhile, was offering free 42-inch plasma TVs and low 30-year fixed interest rates in a bid to sell 200 homes in the 10 days to Sept. 23.

Let's Make A Deal

Inventories of unsold homes have spiked as the subprime crisis forces lenders to tighten their standards, shrinking the pool of potential buyers. And rising foreclosures of risky loans are threatening to put even more homes on the market, leaving builders with little choice but to cut their losses.

"Builders are quite worried," said Celia Chen, director of housing economics at Moody's Economy.com. "They need to move houses off their balance sheets."

Hovnanian sold more than 2,100 homes during its nationwide Deal of the Century sale that ended Sept. 16. The builder said that exceeded its expectations.

Analysts say Hovnanian's promotion was unusual because it included steep price discounts. Previous sales had primarily offered non-cash incentives such as free cabinets, granite countertops and other upgrades. They expect more companies to follow Hovnanian's lead.

"I think there'll be more and more (such sales) to move inventory because Hovnanian's efforts have been pretty successful," said Gopal Ahluwalia, vice president of research at the National Association of Home Builders.

In Southern California, Standard Pacific (NYSE:SPF) reportedly sold about 70 new homes in the first two days of its Mission: Possible campaign that was set to end Sunday, almost half its goal of 200 total sales. In addition to non-cash incentives, the campaign featured "special pricing" and a daily raffle that gave visitors a chance to win $500.

Other major builders, such as Beazer Homes bzh, Centex (NYSE:CTX) ctx and Pulte Homes (NYSE:PHM) phm, have held sales promotions in recent months, but many have refrained from outright price cuts due to concern for buyers who had earlier purchased nearby homes at higher prices.

But that attitude is changing.

"Generally, you strive to keep the pricing steady and offer additional incentives to move unsold inventory, such as offering lower-priced options or some form of assistance with closing costs," said Mark Marymee, director of communications at Pulte Homes.

"But in today's environment, with high inventories of both existing and new homes for sale, that's not always possible," he added.

Selling at discounted prices will allow home builders to raise cash, but it doesn't bode well for profits, which have already taken a big hit.

The nation's top six builders -- Lennar len, D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI) dhi, Centex, Hovnanian, KB Home (NYSE:KBH) and Pulte -- all posted losses in the latest quarter.

Waiting Has Costs

Profits could fall further if builders wait too long to unload their properties, as buyers remain on the sidelines waiting for prices to drop even more.

"Competitors are likely to respond with even bigger discounts, so deals for home buyers are likely to get even better," Daniel Oppenheim, an analyst at Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) , said in a report after Hovnanian's sales event.

To move property quickly, some builders are turning to auctioneers.

Revenue from housing auctions grew 12.5% to $16 billion last year. That's a small fraction of the $1.74 trillion annual housing market, but residential real estate auctions were the fastest-growing auction sector from 2003 to 2006, according to the National Auctioneers Association.

On a recent Sunday, about 100 bidders attended an auction for 11 new townhouses in eastern Pennsylvania. All were sold that day at an average price of $350,000, said Max Spann, president of Max Spann Real Estate & Auction Co.

"If you're a builder and you can accelerate your sales, you can sell at a price that makes business sense," Spann said. "It's an easy way to determine market value on a real-time basis."

In addition, buyers have become more comfortable with bidding on homes, he says.

"The advent (NYSE:AGC) of eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) ebay and people understanding bidding as a way of purchasing things" has helped the real estate auction business, Spann said.

In fact, eBay lists more than 1,400 homes for sale, about a fifth of them in Florida, one of the states hardest hit by the subprime lending crisis.

Analysts say the Federal Reserve's half-point 14terest-rate cut last week will help stabilize the housing market, which has dragged down U.S. economic growth for more than a year. But it will take time to clear out the backlog of unsold homes.

"The Fed's cut sets the stage for a recovery, but we still have to go through some pain," said Chen of Moody's Economy.com.





Newstex ID: IBD-0001-19752707

Originally published in the September 21, 2007 version of Investor's Business Daily.

Copyright (c) 2007, Investor's Business Daily, Inc. All rights reserved. This article is protected by United States copyright law and may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, displayed, published or broadcast without the prior written permission of Investor's Business Daily, Inc. You may not alter or remove any trademark, copyright or other notice from copies of the content.

Builders Use Splashy Campaigns, Auctions, To Clear Out Inventory
September 21, 2007: 08:05 PM EST


Sep. 21, 2007 (Investor's Business Daily delivered by Newstex) --

With slogans like "Deal of the Century" and "Mission: Possible," home builders are launching campaigns to sell off a large backlog of houses.

Luxury builder Hovnanian hov attracted the most attention with a three-day sale earlier this month that combined incentives and discounts, effectively slashing prices by as much as $100,000.

Standard Pacific spf, meanwhile, was offering free 42-inch plasma TVs and low 30-year fixed interest rates in a bid to sell 200 homes in the 10 days to Sept. 23.

Let's Make A Deal

Inventories of unsold homes have spiked as the subprime crisis forces lenders to tighten their standards, shrinking the pool of potential buyers. And rising foreclosures of risky loans are threatening to put even more homes on the market, leaving builders with little choice but to cut their losses.

"Builders are quite worried," said Celia Chen, director of housing economics at Moody's Economy.com. "They need to move houses off their balance sheets."

Hovnanian sold more than 2,100 homes during its nationwide Deal of the Century sale that ended Sept. 16. The builder said that exceeded its expectations.

Analysts say Hovnanian's promotion was unusual because it included steep price discounts. Previous sales had primarily offered non-cash incentives such as free cabinets, granite countertops and other upgrades. They expect more companies to follow Hovnanian's lead.

"I think there'll be more and more (such sales) to move inventory because Hovnanian's efforts have been pretty successful," said Gopal Ahluwalia, vice president of research at the National Association of Home Builders.

In Southern California, Standard Pacific (NYSE:SPF) reportedly sold about 70 new homes in the first two days of its Mission: Possible campaign that was set to end Sunday, almost half its goal of 200 total sales. In addition to non-cash incentives, the campaign featured "special pricing" and a daily raffle that gave visitors a chance to win $500.

Other major builders, such as Beazer Homes bzh, Centex (NYSE:CTX) ctx and Pulte Homes (NYSE:PHM) phm, have held sales promotions in recent months, but many have refrained from outright price cuts due to concern for buyers who had earlier purchased nearby homes at higher prices.

But that attitude is changing.

"Generally, you strive to keep the pricing steady and offer additional incentives to move unsold inventory, such as offering lower-priced options or some form of assistance with closing costs," said Mark Marymee, director of communications at Pulte Homes.

"But in today's environment, with high inventories of both existing and new homes for sale, that's not always possible," he added.

Selling at discounted prices will allow home builders to raise cash, but it doesn't bode well for profits, which have already taken a big hit.

The nation's top six builders -- Lennar len, D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI) dhi, Centex, Hovnanian, KB Home (NYSE:KBH) and Pulte -- all posted losses in the latest quarter.

Waiting Has Costs

Profits could fall further if builders wait too long to unload their properties, as buyers remain on the sidelines waiting for prices to drop even more.

"Competitors are likely to respond with even bigger discounts, so deals for home buyers are likely to get even better," Daniel Oppenheim, an analyst at Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) , said in a report after Hovnanian's sales event.

To move property quickly, some builders are turning to auctioneers.

Revenue from housing auctions grew 12.5% to $16 billion last year. That's a small fraction of the $1.74 trillion annual housing market, but residential real estate auctions were the fastest-growing auction sector from 2003 to 2006, according to the National Auctioneers Association.

On a recent Sunday, about 100 bidders attended an auction for 11 new townhouses in eastern Pennsylvania. All were sold that day at an average price of $350,000, said Max Spann, president of Max Spann Real Estate & Auction Co.

"If you're a builder and you can accelerate your sales, you can sell at a price that makes business sense," Spann said. "It's an easy way to determine market value on a real-time basis."

In addition, buyers have become more comfortable with bidding on homes, he says.

"The advent (NYSE:AGC) of eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) ebay and people understanding bidding as a way of purchasing things" has helped the real estate auction business, Spann said.

In fact, eBay lists more than 1,400 homes for sale, about a fifth of them in Florida, one of the states hardest hit by the subprime lending crisis.

Analysts say the Federal Reserve's half-point 14terest-rate cut last week will help stabilize the housing market, which has dragged down U.S. economic growth for more than a year. But it will take time to clear out the backlog of unsold homes.

"The Fed's cut sets the stage for a recovery, but we still have to go through some pain," said Chen of Moody's Economy.com.





Newstex ID: IBD-0001-19752707

Originally published in the September 21, 2007 version of Investor's Business Daily.

Copyright (c) 2007, Investor's Business Daily, Inc. All rights reserved. This article is protected by United States copyright law and may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, displayed, published or broadcast without the prior written permission of Investor's Business Daily, Inc. You may not alter or remove any trademark, copyright or other notice from copies of the content.

My great aunt and uncle are in the banking biz (both at the age of 88 and NOT senile). Both have not-so fond memories of the Great Depression. I asked them for their thoughts on the present economy.... They had no opinions per-se , but they instructed me to, pay my debts in full...NOW, remove all assets (precious metals),jewelry and important papers from my safety deposit box (at the bank they work at), to buy a variety of non-hybrid seed and make my 3 acres plant-able.

Mind you this comes from "old folks" that don't scare easy. To give you an idea...my uncle landed on Omaha Beach and my aunt made bombs at the Joliet IL. munitions plant and they still ride motorcycles and downhill ski.

And to the person typing, "Everything will be fine". That may be........But I'll listen to people I know and I seriously doubt you've seen, what they've seen.

Thanks for posting -- awesome article!!!!

I smell












STAGFLATION













coming to the cities near me.

Maybe a cross between tyranny and currency!

The wealth is being sucked out of the general economy
and into the hands of upper executives and ceo,s in
all sectors (the ungreening of America). The creation of a slave labor class is underway.

I remember the days when Americans called it the British Quarter Pounder or the British Oz. My, how the scales have tipped.

"Marcus Schuler, credit chief at Deutsche Bank, said the Fed rate cut had restored parts of the debt market to normal, at least for now. "There have been no catastrophic losses announced. New issuance is picking again and cash is there," he said.

Mr Schuler said the spreads on the iTraxx Crossover index measuring appetite for corporate bonds had fallen sharply after ballooning to record levels during the summer panic. "We've regained three quarters," he said."

Things are looking up!!!

Do you realise the numbers the government and the trade associations give you for housing on the market do not include those that are for sale by owner? The number of those are rapidly rising due to people not being able to afford the middle-men!!!

Er... well... unless you are trying to get a loan from the local bankster to buy a home or other real estate... then forget it... money gone for the common man.

Oh no it is not "Ressession" next... it going to be a full blown out "Depression" and it has already started. The US dollar is worthless and losing ground as we speak. We here in the US live in a debt economy... and the bottom is rotted and falling out. Get ready for the rough ride down... it is going to be quite a fall.

AC you are not the 'common man' but the 'below common man'

Clean up your credit and keep it that way for 10 or 20 years and you will get what you want

In the mean time quit whining

The stock market is the indicator to watch for an upcoming recession.

The stock market looks ahead 6 months.

Since the S&P500 is near an all-time high, there will be no recession in the near future.

I'd go with the stock market indicator rather than woo-woos with internet access, any day.

We don't have ten years, stupid ass. We don't even have two.