Ugandan Ebola Update Information

Here is the crux of my current worries:

"Because of its scanty history, scientists have concluded that the strain is somewhat containable because it kills its victims faster than it can spread to new hosts."

Link: [link to afp.google.com]



This is in regards to the other strains, not the current one. The incubation period being longer may lead to problems, allowing the transmission time to be longer than the time to death takes.

And with so many more living, they will be communicable for a longer time period once they show symptoms.

This is mainly speculative, as I don't have good confirmation of the actual incubation/communicable time frame for this strain yet.


Anyone have more sources than I do? There has to be an epidemiologist out there somewhere!

New strain Ebola virus found in Uganda
Dec 7, 2007 11:18 AM

A new strain of the deadly Ebola virus is thought to have infected 94 people and killed at least 22 in Uganda, prompting neighbouring Kenya to begin screening at its shared border, officials said.

Doctor Sam Zaramba, Uganda's director of health services, said a doctor had died in Kampala's Mulago Hospital after looking after a patient in its isolation ward. Three other medical staff died after treating infected patients.

Besides the doctor and patient in Mulago, all other cases and deaths had occurred where the outbreak started in Uganda's western Bundibugyo district, bordering the Democratic Republic of Congo, he said.

"We've had one more admission today, someone in Bundibugyo. It is 94, now," Zaramba said.

"Twenty two have died. Out of them, four (are) health workers, one a doctor. He died in Mulago," Zaramba said earlier.

Only 58 cases have so far been confirmed in laboratory tests, Uganda says. But more people falling ill and a rising death toll since the outbreak started in August has caused panic in the east African country.

Neighbouring Kenya has been screening travellers entering from Uganda at the Busia crossing - on the main road out of Kenya's west into east and central Africa - since last week, health officials said.

"Screening is going on at Busia. People are being asked questions about where they have travelled and their health," Kenya's head of medical services, Dr. James Nyikal, said.

The Ugandan government confirmed the fever was Ebola a week ago.

"All medical staff dealing with Ebola have been issued with protective gear," Zaramba said.

Genetic analysis of samples taken from some victims shows this virus is a previously unrecorded type of Ebola, making it a fifth strain, US and Ugandan health officials say.

The World Health Organisation is concerned about the way the virus keeps mutating.

But Ugandan officials say the unusually low death rate of this type - at roughly 22% when the virus normally kills between half and 90% of those infected - shows it is less lethal than previous epidemics.

Uganda was last hit by Ebola outbreak in 2000, when 425 people caught it and just over half died.

This year, an epidemic broke out in Congo - where some of the first recorded cases in 1976 gave the virus its name after the country's Ebola river. It killed 187 people and infected up to 264.


[link to tvnz.co.nz]

A good doctor, too, may he rest in peace..


Doctor Loses Life to Ebola in Outbreak
In Treating Ebola, Doctor Exposed Himself to Deadly Virus
Dec. 8, 2007

"Dr. Jonah Kule died this evening, Tuesday 4 December, at Mulago Hospital [of Ebola hemorrhagic fever] ...

"Ebola is horrific. There are no words to express our grief. And this makes the whole epidemic even more frightening, if that were possible."

So writes Dr. Jennifer Myhre, a medical missionary, who, along with her husband, Dr. Scott Myhre, has lived in Bundibugyo District in remote western Uganda for 14 years serving the poorest of the poor.

"We have lost one of our best friends," she continues.

The Myhres -- Scott, a family physician, and Jennifer, a pediatrician, knew Kule since they began work in this virtually unknown corner of the world.

Bundibugyo is a place that rarely makes the news -- that is until a week ago when the deadly Ebola virus erupted with vengeance into a ghastly epidemic.

Native to Africa, Ebola is not well known in the United States. But in central and eastern parts of Africa, where it periodically explodes into fatal, bloody outbreaks, the mere mention of the word sparks dread and panic.

The Horror of Ebola

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Ebola hemorrhagic fever (Ebola HF) is a relentless, frequently lethal disease in humans, gorillas, monkeys and other nonhuman primates. It has appeared sporadically since its initial recognition in 1976.

Scientists conjecture that outbreaks initially occur by exposure of humans to infected animals. Symptoms include fever, vomiting, diarrhea and, commonly, bleeding from all body orifices. Patients usually die of shock or respiratory failure, likely as a result of massive bleeding, including bleeding into the lungs.

Epidemics spread through contact with the blood or body fluids of the ill.

Kule, who grew up in Bundibugyo, had recently returned to this deprived rural district after completing medical school in the capital city of Kampala.

Kule passed up lucrative career opportunities in Kampala and other large Ugandan cities to work among his tribesmen in a place where few Ugandan doctors venture, and even then, venture only when assigned as part of government service.

Kule was one of the few from Bundibugyo to ever attend medical school.

"He refused to charge patients extra fees for his services, even though that is widely practiced in government hospitals," writes Jennifer Myhre. "He was completely trustworthy with his responsibilities and resources.

[link to abcnews.go.com]

I read that article as well. Good catch however.

It is a few days old (It is Dec. 9th, or almost the 9th in Uganda right now.)

I wish we could track that part of the world more closely.

:) Goes to show you that you can't trust tot he speed of your typing.

The post above the ABC one is the one I meant in regards to the date.

Still, people can read that, so I doubt I messed anyones thoughts up too much.

Thanks for your efforts, we need to stay on top of this.

[link to search.news.yahoo.com]

The tough part now is dealing with the differences in information gathering between the third world and our own methods.

A lot of people there avoid going to the hospital, as they view it as a place to GET sick, not get well. (And in reality they are often correct.)

So, we have no idea how many people are lying sick somewhere right now.

I hesitate to make a guess, but it could be that for every one person diagnosed we are looking at between one and ten people that are not reporting it.

At first it just seems like a cold or flu after all...

Do you go to the doctor every time you feel a little sick? Even if you have a fever?

I don't.

Most of the people in that region of Africa likely don't either.

The scary part here is that we could literally have an epidemic on our hands already and not even know about it!

We could also have cases almost anywhere in the world, and no one would diagnose it as this!

Perhaps next week, once the world is out, but not right now.

They would just think you had a fever and likely will not even place you in isolation, even IF you go to a hospital.

Without that in place, a lot of people may be getting sick.

*O.K. Yes, I am worried about this, I am also projecting some worse case scenarios here, so don't let me scare anyone. This does need to be watched and care needs to be taken to watch for outbreaks in other places...

But for right now, it is all about waiting and hoping for the best.

Anyone know what countries have the most travel between themselves and Uganda?

Ones outside of Africa?

Most likely Europe or U.S.A. right?

I just wonder how long we would have before it hit in the States is all.

Here is an update from two of the Doctors on the ground in Uganda.

Link: [link to paradoxuganda.blogspot.com]

This is in the section titled: The Saturday Numbers and other things.

So far there are 106 confirmed cases and 26 dead. (Slightly more than the press is saying, but it is likely just that this info is near real time compared to what the press has.)

Fear on the ground at the Hospital and in the area seems heavy from what I read there.

*There are also links to places to donate funds, if you can, I recommend you do.

This is truly a time to "fight over there, so we don't have to fight it over here" if ever I have seen one!

I asked in a reply for some information about incubation and communicable time frames, but I will have to wait and see if enough time comes for an answer at all. (I image they are pretty busy right now!)

From the Paradoxuganda blog:

# AWOL: still 5. One of those went to their other home in Kasese district. Four are at home in Bundibugyo. Because this strain may be a bit less severe people may try to manage without admission, which can lead to more contacts and further spread. The surveillance team finds the lack of contact stability very challenging. They are trying to document and follow EVERY contact, which is tricky if people move around. Imagine a place with no addresses, no mail, no phones, no Social Security numbers, no credit cards, no drivers’ licenses, no ID’s, few taxes . . . And then you’ll realize how hard it is to keep track of people. They can easily disappear.

# People sitting in the meeting when these numbers were announced and debated: 54. The RDC continues to provide strong leadership, marshalling the troops, holding the meetings together.

# Classic Bundibugyo: WFP cautioned against giving food to all contacts. . . . Lest everyone begin to complain of being a contact and so overwhelm the surveillance teams.
# More classic Bundibugyo: a religious group who meets on Friday mornings slaughtered two sheep in Nyahuka today, and told their members that everyone who ate a piece of the sacrificed goat would be protected from the virus. The DDHS himself brought up the claims of herbal medicine specialists entering the district with Ebola cures, not to refute them, but to ask the group what they thought. Given the fear surrounding this disease, and the fairly high recovery rate, there will no doubt be many claiming to have a cure for the right price.

# Controversies: should local eating establishments be closed? The group debated this a lot. Consensus: no. Maybe a few placed that had poor hygiene . . .but most should stay open. There is an odd tension. They want to scare people enough that they change behaviours regarding contact with sick patients, and burials. Yet they don’t want to scare people to the extent that society grinds to a halt. After all, all these experts have to eat somewhere too. These meetings spend a lot of time on things like money and food . . .

# Non-Ebola patients in Nyahuka: 0. No admissions. No outpatients. The stigma and fear factor skyrocketed after Jonah died. We have all sensed the quietness, the eeriness of the town. Today a church leader reprimanded children around Scott Will’s house telling them they could get sick from him and die, so go home. We are beginning to realize that the three of us (Scott, Scott Will, and me) are considered unclean. And not without reason. I think that we have to live with that. It is logically inconsistent to send our kids away and then feel disgruntled that others avoid us. It is hard for people to realize that as long as we have no symptoms we are not dangerous. At least the MSF and CDC people aren’t afraid of us!

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What I found of interest in this:

The number of people is likely to be way underreported, even compared to what I thought!

Also interesting:

Only symptomatic people are contagious!

Of course, with this one, they can be symptomatic for a time and not realize it, as the fever seems to linger in some people for a while before it really becomes obvious they are ill. (Like many diseases.

The one blessing her is that it does not force people to cough or sneeze. That would be a much greater problem.

Notice people are not going to the doctors however, even when ill or injured?

That could lead to a lot more trouble.

Just how many people have this and are refusing to go in for treatment?

1,000?

10,000?

Here is something I gleaned from the writings about Dr. Jonah Kule, the native Doctor that died yesterday Of Ebola. (Day before yesterday now?)

It took him five days after his first exposure to become symptomatic. He thought he may have Malaria. It started with a headache, then fever, later in the first day he vomited.

He was six days between the first symptoms and death.

He was able to walk around for a day and a half, almost two days before he became bed ridden.

Then, he seemed to get better for almost three days, talking and such with others.

So, the answer to the question I have been looking for is this:

Around five days to a week before first symptoms start.

About that same amount of time until death. It may take slightly longer for people to recover, but at least that time period is considered communicable.

Think about how many people you meet in two days.

Even if they are careful, this virus could spread due to coughing or sneezing.

The same is true once in bed, but that should limit the exposure to others a lot more.

thanks for the informative post...please keep us updated!

I will do my best to keep this updated.

Actually, I will probably thumbnail it again tomorrow in a different thread, if there are updates. (Sunday)

I don't think any more real news will be out until evening Uganda time, after the Doctors have their next briefing.

You can't trust the WHO to tell you anything in a timely fashion, and they seem to be very good at their job, but they don't seem to think updates are helpful, I guess.

The Ugandan government may well go into a lock down/cover-up mode.

The people there are so scared that the Government may think it best to hush things up a bit. We Will need to be watchful and considerate of this possibility.

Many flights to and from South Africa. South Africa is the main hub connecting international flights.

Thank you!

I will keep an eye out for any activity in SA as well then.

I don't know if they will catch the symptoms at first...

most doctors there would be terrified of getting it wrong, so they will not be quick to call in anyone that would know for certain. (But as long as they do the tests, it should be all right...Except for the contamination problems from not being isolated.)

Again, thank you!

No hits for any problems in South Africa just yet. (Hopefully never in regards to this strain of Ebola!)

One interesting fact is that the labs in SA are where the blood samples are sent for some of the Ebola testing.

So if any problems come up, the labs will be closer to hand and the tests won't take as long to get started. (There have been some horrible lag times in testing I hear.)

This is a horrific disease and we can only hope and pray that it is contained and quickly. If someone who is getting sick and is infectious gets on an International flight God help us! I pray for all the victims and their families.

i was wondering what was getting people excited about this latest ebola outbreak. now i know, it's morphed into a new strain, this is very bad.

Ebola Uganda latest information, as per the Bundibugyo hospital briefing for Sunday:

Confirmed cases: 112
Confirmed Ebola deaths: 28

New worries: The local population, indeed the population of Uganda, has a large population that is inclined to rely on herbal medicines.

The fear here is not about the herbs, but about the methods of introduction to the body.

The preferred methods for the compound of 17 herbs is to administer an enema or to rub the herbs into shallow cuts made with a razor blade.

Most of the herb doctors in the area do not have access to protective gear, and it is feared that this could act as a secondary point of contagion.

People with 100% positive contact have been disappearing. Fear of the disease is causing panic, and distrust of the medical professionals.



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Speculation on my part below
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I think that most of the people exposed have stopped going to the hospital at all. It is thought that to be included in a hospitals Ebola ward means that, even if you did not have it when you went in, you WILL get it from the other patients.

Given the nature of this strain, even the doctors admit that this seems correct.

What is more, there is malaria in the area, as well as cholera. All of these have similar presentations for illness.

I don't know if misqitoes can act as carriers for this particular strain, but if so, that is an added vector to be aware of.

So, what does all this mean? It basically means that all sources of news have little more clue that what we have right here.

The true numbers of this are unknown, and likely growing "in secret" every day.

The government is starting to place blame, as they are being blamed for not being able to contain this.

On the good side, the brother and mother of Dr. Jonah (The doctor that died a few days ago) who are known to have had close bodily contact with him, have not shown any symptoms as of yet.

If they do NOT show symptoms, then it may be that this strain is not as communicable as thought. We will still have to wait about four days to really be certain, but fingers crossed on this one!

Because communicability is the main factor left as to how far and fast this will spread.

If fifty percent of those exposed get the disease, then we have a possible pandemic on our hands and will have to start taking steps.

If it is 5%, we may be able to contain it to that region of Africa.

I doubt that it has not jumped the borders out of Uganda at this point.

Good doom!!

I think the difference with this one is that it is possibly REAL doom.

Notice how few people are commenting on it? I think this is because, on a deep level, we all sense how very wrong this could go.

It fits with parts of the NWO Agenda we have all heard of, taking out large portions of the populations with a disease is likely the only way to effectively do it any more.

The death to infected ration has gone up a little, to 25%.

What we don't know are how many early cases (Which are not being counted by the way, in the death toll) are being left uncounted. The real death toll is likely higher, but the current toll is of confirmed cases only, which gives us a real tally, if slightly skewed early numbers.

This seems to be falling apart in front of our eyes.

*

I did some basic math, this should not be counted as a "Solid" number for this but...

So far the number of exposures being watched, these are people that are believed to have encountered a sick person directly in a way that could transmit the disease, is 364.

The number of active, confirmed cases is 112.

This would state on it's surface that around 30.76% of those exposed get the disease.

This would be wrong of course, as it is really closer to 25% right now, AND we cannot know how many people have symptoms that are not counted, OR are in the count, but simply lied about the symptoms.
*

Remember, this part of the world has a different view of what the truth is. It is fluid and bendable and it is not even considered a lie to say something untrue to try and protect yourself from death.

So yes, we may be looking at a "Perfect Storm" of death coming to the whole world.

Real Doom, if we are not all careful and proactive ASAP.

So, here is how the problems really get started.

Violence closes one Ebola isolation center....

Other violence is taking place, you have to read the link here:

[link to www.newvision.co.ug]

To get all the information.

This is so much worse than we are being told people.

The government there is claiming it has everything contained.

This is a bit like The U.S. government telling everyone to fight the terrorists by shopping!

Actually, it is almost identical, the Government in Uganda is trying to prevent a massive social collapse, but this is making everyone fear that things are worse than they are told.

Which seems to be the case!

So, here is how the problems really get started.

Violence closes one Ebola isolation center....

Other violence is taking place, you have to read the link here:

[link to www.newvision.co.ug]

To get all the information.

This is so much worse than we are being told people.

The government there is claiming it has everything contained.

This is a bit like The U.S. government telling everyone to fight the terrorists by shopping!

Actually, it is almost identical, the Government in Uganda is trying to prevent a massive social collapse, but this is making everyone fear that things are worse than they are told.

Which seems to be the case!

I hope this gets out...

The world could USE a bit of DOOM to wake it up to the fact that life is NOT all about fast cars and fine food and politics.

An IV drip with 25,000 mg of Vitamin C, followed by an IV drip of 1% pure hydrogen peroxide(diluted with sterile saline from 35% peroxide) upon first appearance, or better yet, initial exposure to the Ebola virus will wipe out the virus. Repeat twice daily to get any viruses that escaped destruction in the first treatment. This is what they should be doing for the unfortunate victims of this new mutant(or engineered)form of Ebola. Buy a bottle of 35% peroxide in advance of any "Outbreaks" of bioweaponized bacteria or viruses as it keeps undiluted for many years, but keep out of reach of children as it extremely dangerous in its undiluted form(burns flesh nearly instantaneously). Our immune cells use hydrogen peroxide which they produce to kill pathogens, so we're replicating our bodies main means of defense with the H2O2(hydrogen peroxide)drip. The trouble with peroxide is that it is unpatentable and cheap so the medicos can't make fortunes with it. It is used in some cancer clinics in Mexico with safety and great results, as Otto Warburg won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 1929(I believe) for his discovery that cancer cells were restored to aerobic metabolism by exposure to high levels of oxygen. Cancer cells are just cells that have reverted to an anaerobic metabolism for their energy production, and high oxygen levels can re establish normal metabolism. Most M.D.'s don't even know of this research, and the few who do aren't going to buck the system, risk ostracism from their peers. Medical schools get huge funding and research grants from the pharmaceutical industry and there's no money to be made from oxygen. So very SAD!!!!!

I think I need someone like THE DOOM to spell this out to people.

It is a real DOOM scenario. Watch it take place, begin to make your own plans to protect yourself...

It has ALREADY gotten out. Sure, this is just my own feeling, my own projection, but given the situation on the ground, there is almost no way it has not gotten out.

One of the reasons this is not a bigger problem in numbers is because they cannot do the needed TESTS for confirmation!

There are a lot of sick people that are not being counted right now, because the confirmation tests just can't get out.

This is the Black Plague on a possible world wide scale, it is the worst smallpox epidemic you could imagine, it is something that should scare you enough to take action now, before it is too late.

This has the potential to keep growing and spreading like nothing we have ever seen!

It is not time to panic, but really you should be aware enough of this to give it at least the attention you would give to a thread by some psychic claiming a comet will hit the Earth soon!

It could work. I don't know if it would really be effective or not in this case, but ANY early treatment that can kill a virus is better than none at all!

The key here is avoidance of infected people.

This CAN go air born, but you would have to cough and sneeze a lot to make that happen, that is the one saving grace here I think.

If you do not touch a person with your hands, you should be safe enough.

If you do, so far, even washing with bleach has proven to only be effective about half the time.

I don't know if that is because of poor sanitation habits or because the strain is just that tough, but either way, it is worth taking action.

Ok..ill spell it out..whay MAY happen.

Consider this...

The virus is AIRBORNE..in other words..it drifts around in little droplets breathed out or coughed out by the victim.


It also has a reasonably LONG incubation period..so the infected person will feel healthy and normal..all the while spreading his droplets around with every breath.

Now..they are screening some..but they cannot screen all. Some who HAVE it have been travelling to the countries surrounding it..spreading their droplets to others..who in turn incubate it..spreading it to others..and so on.

All it will take is just a few who have it to get on a plane..spreading it to all who breathe the air on the plane. These then all disembark, carrying the disease...by this time the original carriers are actually starting to get sick..but its too late..its already been sent by plane to somewhere else..

The ones who get off the plane or planes now have two whole weeks to incubate and spread it some more..getting on OTHER planes..infecting more and more people and creating more and more carriers...

Within five days the disease can be spread almost everywhere before anyone even shows SIGNS they have it..

And on it goes..spreading..spreading...fanning out in the population...some carriers go see a movie..spreading it further...some get on trains..spreading it further.

Within three weeks the world can be infected with it...just as the very first ones who carried it are getting sick..22% of the fatally..the rest incapacitated and knocked out of production.

Can you see what would happen if this thing gets away?

Yes..22% of the worlds population DEAD...another 60% so sick they are out of action..and the rest..scrambling to survive.

The economy would DIE..Martial law would be declared..and all hell would break loose.


SO DOOOOMED!!!!

Ebola is back, we need to avoid contact with nearly everybody!

By JOACHIM BUWEMBO

Epidemics come and go. Some spread their misery for only a few weeks, while others linger or keep cropping up just as you thought they were history. One recent one looks set to be with us for a long time. Worse, there appears to be no telling how devastating the newest strike by the Ebola hemorrhagic fever will be before it is contained.

As a matter of fact, Uganda is today grappling with four “new” epidemics – meningitis and bubonic plague in West Nile region, cholera in Hoima and Buliisa districts and yellow fever in the northern district of Kitgum. But the scariest is Ebola. It kills in the most horrifying way, as blood oozes from all openings in the victim’s body. Ebola is transmitted by contact with any fluids from the body of an infected person.

What is surprising is how long it has taken us – authorities and the public – to take the matter seriously. Everybody knows that this time around, Ebola first struck in the western district of Bundibugyo in August — that is, some four months ago. Considering that our medical workers and authorities had to fight a serious Ebola epidemic in 2000, antennae should have been quivering the minute Ebola-like symptoms manifested themselves. Anti-Ebola precautions would then have been taken as we awaited results of laboratory tests from the United States, which were received just over a week ago, on November 29.

All the same, there is no reason to doubt that we shall get over this, as we have in the past. Didn’t we survive the plague just after World War I in the last century? Our grandfathers learnt how to treat the victims from a distance, building isolated huts for them and taking them food served using a long stick. When the victim finally died, a hole was dug near the hut and, avoiding direct contact, the body was pushed down the hole and burial effected immediately.

The colonial authorities were smart and did their bit in checking the epidemic. Having known that rats were responsible for spreading the disease, they asked their African subjects to collect as many rat tails as they could, ostensibly so the medicine to cure the disease could be manufactured from them. People began hunting down all the rats for their “much needed” tails – of course, killing them in the process — and the problem was eventually solved.

OTHER EPIDEMICS HAVE COME AND gone too. We thought yellow fever had gone forever, but now it is back in some parts. Now and then, cholera comes around, especially in crowded places. In Kampala, it tends to hit areas that have poor sanitation. We usually react by setting up a special tent to treat the affected at Mulago national referral hospital and reminding people to wash their hands after visiting the toilet.

There is also HIV and Aids, which first appeared in the early 1980s. When the cause and main mode of transmission were identified, the government embarked on a major campaign to educate the public on how to avoid it. This was in the mid 1980s to early 1990s. The campaigns were largely successful, until HIV became a big industry involving millions of dollars. The anti-HIV campaign then spawned its own epidemic of mini-rackets and scams, but at least the general increase in awareness had helped roll back the viral invasion and keep its spread in check.

However, there is a new challenge. Because of improved care at the community level as well as scientific advances, many infected persons live longer, including those babies who contract the virus at birth. Many such babies have now attained the age of 20 — and a few are even 22. They are at the height of their sexual awareness and are now asking why they have to abstain forever.

Most are sole survivors from families that were virtually wiped out by the virus and are anxious not to be the “last in the series” — in other words, they want to reproduce.

But back to the Ebola thing, we shall need some prayers in addition to the precautions of avoiding contact with almost everybody. For there is no telling who contracted the thing before the symptoms start showing.



-------------------------------------------------------------​-------------------

Joachim Buwembo is editor of the Daily Monitor of Kampala

[link to www.nationmedia.com]

The thing I notice here, is that the medical workers there are taking a stance that while reasonable, shows a lack of understanding in regards to human nature.

For instance, they know that to put someone in an infection ward is a certain way to give them Ebola, but lament that people are fleeing, to prevent going into one.

Also, they are on one hand telling people not to be even close to an infected person, but then they have mental problems dealing with the fact that people are avoiding them, as they are not symptomatic.

Yet one of the prime differences of this strain is that you cannot easily tell if a person is symptomatic just by looking, not at first at least.

What i wonder however is this, would people in Europe or the U.S. act any differently?

We are supposed to be educated people that follow the laws of the land, but frankly, I think that similar reactions could well be expected from the populations there.

What would you do?