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Why Ron Paul will Win in Iowa

 
Anonymous Coward
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12/22/2007 11:27 PM
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Why Ron Paul will Win in Iowa
Since the usually erudite pundits have been so totally clueless as to what is going to happen at the Iowa caucuses, I will tell them.

Granted, Rush Limbaugh, Arianna Huffington, Sean Hannity, and all the others have been operating under historical precedence. For the last four or five decades, the old party insiders and bosses have decided the field of candidates, then various polls told us voters who the leaders were, and, after endless punditry, fund raisers, and scintillating news releases, we dutifully chose our party candidates in caucuses and primaries. The problem with this, however, is that pesky little phrase one sees on stock market advertisements, "past performance is no guarantee of future gains."

As a trained historian, I have always been amazed at instances in history where highly improbable events did indeed happen – with profound impact and consequences for all involved. Had Rush or Arianna or Sean been commentating on the course of my own state of Texas' struggle for independence, no doubt they wouldn't have given a plug nickel for success after the fall of the Alamo. The well-equipped armies of Santa Anna were chasing the remnants of ragtag Texian resistance completely out of the territory. But no one reckoned with the feisty Sam Houston who, with his followers backed up against a river and no chance of further retreat, counter-attacked Santa Anna as he dallied with Emily Morgan (the legendary Yellow Rose of Texas) in his tent, and achieved one of the greatest victories in the history of warfare. Greatest precisely because it so defied probability, "conventional wisdom," and had such profound consequences.

And so it will be in Iowa. But rather than accepting or rejecting this as just another blustery attempt at wishful thinking, indulge me for a few minutes as I give my rational and math.

First, Ron Paul is running as a republican in a state where the base is disenchanted with those they have sent to office. They are unhappy with the war in Iraq, baffled at the massive increase in the size and scope of government, and especially perplexed at the President's unwillingness to defend our borders.

Second, according to conventional polling, the republican base in Iowa doesn't really prefer any one candidate and feel most have serious flaws of one sort or another. Whether Rudy's lack of morals, Mitt's lack of a backbone, Fred's comatose arrogance, John's acid temper, or Mike's specter of universal alter calls, all of them leave a slight foul aftertaste in the back of one's mouth.

Third, any Iowan can register as a republican – right up to walking in to the local precinct caucus on January 3rd. Coupled with this, democrats nationwide and in Iowa are not happy with their congressional representative's (read Hillary and Barack) failure to end the war in Iraq.

Keeping these three factors in mind, consider the math behind Dr. Paul's impending victory.

In the 2000 presidential campaign, some 87,666 Iowa republicans caucused in 2,114 precincts (99% of the total as per www.gwu.edu). This is an average of slightly under forty-two attendees per caucus site. Let us assume that these same people would normally attend the caucuses on January 3rd. However, applying my first point, unhappy voters are less inclined to spend several hours of their free time to participate in a process that seems to have been less than satisfactory in the past. If ten percent stay home, that will bring our average attendance to thirty-eight. Now, applying my second point and one of the more reliable pollsters (Rasmussen Iowa poll of December 17th), lets say that eleven (28%) of those thirty-eight cast their ballot for Mike Huckabee, ten (27%) cast for Mitt Romney, five (14%) cast for John McCain, three (8%) cast for Rudy Giuliani, three (8%) cast for Fred Thompson, and two (6%) cast their votes for Ron Paul. Conventional wisdom (and most likely our pundits) would say that Dr. Paul is a surefire loser.

But the last factor trumps all. Most political commentators are in agreement that Ron Paul supporters are engaged, organized, computer literate, and on fire with zeal. Volunteers across the nation are donating a week of their vacations to walk the streets and roads of Iowa to canvas votes for Dr. Paul. If one clicks on Ron Paul's official website, he or she will find very detailed instructions on how to participate in an Iowa precinct caucus as well as tips on dealing with the old party faithful. Trust me – almost all Ron Paul supporters are intimately familiar with this. By many accounts, Dr. Paul's most ardent supporters are young, energetic, and new to the political process. By definition then, these individuals would not be included in Mr. Rasmussen's polling data, so any that show up would be in addition to the thirty-eight at our hypothetical average precinct. It is plausible to expect half a dozen of these new voters to brave whatever the Iowa winter throws at them in their quest to vote for Dr. Paul. In addition, many lifelong democrats are rallying to Ron Paul's message and, because of the registration rules, can easily walk in the doors of republican precincts, register as republicans, and vote for Dr. Paul. Judging by their comments in the blogosphere, I don't think it unreasonable to expect another four disgruntled democrats to be at each of our average precincts. These ten new voters and the older two give Dr. Paul twelve votes – and first place.
So there it is. Someone once said all politics is local, and these local political processes will hand Ron Paul his first improbable victory on the way to the nomination and the White House.



Gary Skubal is a teacher in Sweeny, TX and retired reservist after spending 28 years in the Air Force and Army. He is married with five children.
[link to www.opednews.com]
Anonymous Coward
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12/22/2007 11:31 PM
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Re: Why Ron Paul will Win in Iowa
bump
Anonymous Coward
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12/22/2007 11:35 PM
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Re: Why Ron Paul will Win in Iowa
Dont let the cat out of the bag..

We all know Ron Paul is our next President.

I will drag every one from my family to the polls you can count on that. Even if I have to bribe them with dinner. lol Its going to be a party!!!

Oh yea they will all vote RON PAUL too.
mercury2

User ID: 344090
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12/22/2007 11:40 PM

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Re: Why Ron Paul will Win in Iowa
All of you should keep in mind that when Jesse Ventura was elected governor of Minnesota, no one who voted for him thought he would win. I am sure that not one person who cast their vote thought it would lead to his election as governor. We all voted for him to please ourselves, and because the other canditates were so boring that you could go into a coma just thinking about them. I voted for Jesse to amuse myself. It made me feel quite patriotic. I was as surprised as anyone when he actually won the election.

Point being, never say never! And don't feel you are "throwing away your vote".
mathetes

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12/22/2007 11:42 PM

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Re: Why Ron Paul will Win in Iowa
Since the usually erudite pundits have been so totally clueless as to what is going to happen at the Iowa caucuses, I will tell them.

Granted, Rush Limbaugh, Arianna Huffington, Sean Hannity, and all the others have been operating under historical precedence. For the last four or five decades, the old party insiders and bosses have decided the field of candidates, then various polls told us voters who the leaders were, and, after endless punditry, fund raisers, and scintillating news releases, we dutifully chose our party candidates in caucuses and primaries. The problem with this, however, is that pesky little phrase one sees on stock market advertisements, "past performance is no guarantee of future gains."

As a trained historian, I have always been amazed at instances in history where highly improbable events did indeed happen – with profound impact and consequences for all involved. Had Rush or Arianna or Sean been commentating on the course of my own state of Texas' struggle for independence, no doubt they wouldn't have given a plug nickel for success after the fall of the Alamo. The well-equipped armies of Santa Anna were chasing the remnants of ragtag Texian resistance completely out of the territory. But no one reckoned with the feisty Sam Houston who, with his followers backed up against a river and no chance of further retreat, counter-attacked Santa Anna as he dallied with Emily Morgan (the legendary Yellow Rose of Texas) in his tent, and achieved one of the greatest victories in the history of warfare. Greatest precisely because it so defied probability, "conventional wisdom," and had such profound consequences.

And so it will be in Iowa. But rather than accepting or rejecting this as just another blustery attempt at wishful thinking, indulge me for a few minutes as I give my rational and math.

First, Ron Paul is running as a republican in a state where the base is disenchanted with those they have sent to office. They are unhappy with the war in Iraq, baffled at the massive increase in the size and scope of government, and especially perplexed at the President's unwillingness to defend our borders.

Second, according to conventional polling, the republican base in Iowa doesn't really prefer any one candidate and feel most have serious flaws of one sort or another. Whether Rudy's lack of morals, Mitt's lack of a backbone, Fred's comatose arrogance, John's acid temper, or Mike's specter of universal alter calls, all of them leave a slight foul aftertaste in the back of one's mouth.

Third, any Iowan can register as a republican – right up to walking in to the local precinct caucus on January 3rd. Coupled with this, democrats nationwide and in Iowa are not happy with their congressional representative's (read Hillary and Barack) failure to end the war in Iraq.

Keeping these three factors in mind, consider the math behind Dr. Paul's impending victory.

In the 2000 presidential campaign, some 87,666 Iowa republicans caucused in 2,114 precincts (99% of the total as per www.gwu.edu). This is an average of slightly under forty-two attendees per caucus site. Let us assume that these same people would normally attend the caucuses on January 3rd. However, applying my first point, unhappy voters are less inclined to spend several hours of their free time to participate in a process that seems to have been less than satisfactory in the past. If ten percent stay home, that will bring our average attendance to thirty-eight. Now, applying my second point and one of the more reliable pollsters (Rasmussen Iowa poll of December 17th), lets say that eleven (28%) of those thirty-eight cast their ballot for Mike Huckabee, ten (27%) cast for Mitt Romney, five (14%) cast for John McCain, three (8%) cast for Rudy Giuliani, three (8%) cast for Fred Thompson, and two (6%) cast their votes for Ron Paul. Conventional wisdom (and most likely our pundits) would say that Dr. Paul is a surefire loser.

But the last factor trumps all. Most political commentators are in agreement that Ron Paul supporters are engaged, organized, computer literate, and on fire with zeal. Volunteers across the nation are donating a week of their vacations to walk the streets and roads of Iowa to canvas votes for Dr. Paul. If one clicks on Ron Paul's official website, he or she will find very detailed instructions on how to participate in an Iowa precinct caucus as well as tips on dealing with the old party faithful. Trust me – almost all Ron Paul supporters are intimately familiar with this. By many accounts, Dr. Paul's most ardent supporters are young, energetic, and new to the political process. By definition then, these individuals would not be included in Mr. Rasmussen's polling data, so any that show up would be in addition to the thirty-eight at our hypothetical average precinct. It is plausible to expect half a dozen of these new voters to brave whatever the Iowa winter throws at them in their quest to vote for Dr. Paul. In addition, many lifelong democrats are rallying to Ron Paul's message and, because of the registration rules, can easily walk in the doors of republican precincts, register as republicans, and vote for Dr. Paul. Judging by their comments in the blogosphere, I don't think it unreasonable to expect another four disgruntled democrats to be at each of our average precincts. These ten new voters and the older two give Dr. Paul twelve votes – and first place.
So there it is. Someone once said all politics is local, and these local political processes will hand Ron Paul his first improbable victory on the way to the nomination and the White House.



Gary Skubal is a teacher in Sweeny, TX and retired reservist after spending 28 years in the Air Force and Army. He is married with five children.
[link to www.opednews.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 303787

Great article OP
For I would not, brethren, that ye should be ignorant of this mystery, lest ye should be wise in your own conceits; that blindness in part is happened to Israel, until the fulness of the Gentiles be come in.
Anonymous Coward
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01/03/2008 09:19 PM
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Re: Why Ron Paul will Win in Iowa
Since the usually erudite pundits have been so totally clueless as to what is going to happen at the Iowa caucuses, I will tell them.

Granted, Rush Limbaugh, Arianna Huffington, Sean Hannity, and all the others have been operating under historical precedence. For the last four or five decades, the old party insiders and bosses have decided the field of candidates, then various polls told us voters who the leaders were, and, after endless punditry, fund raisers, and scintillating news releases, we dutifully chose our party candidates in caucuses and primaries. The problem with this, however, is that pesky little phrase one sees on stock market advertisements, "past performance is no guarantee of future gains."

As a trained historian, I have always been amazed at instances in history where highly improbable events did indeed happen – with profound impact and consequences for all involved. Had Rush or Arianna or Sean been commentating on the course of my own state of Texas' struggle for independence, no doubt they wouldn't have given a plug nickel for success after the fall of the Alamo. The well-equipped armies of Santa Anna were chasing the remnants of ragtag Texian resistance completely out of the territory. But no one reckoned with the feisty Sam Houston who, with his followers backed up against a river and no chance of further retreat, counter-attacked Santa Anna as he dallied with Emily Morgan (the legendary Yellow Rose of Texas) in his tent, and achieved one of the greatest victories in the history of warfare. Greatest precisely because it so defied probability, "conventional wisdom," and had such profound consequences.

And so it will be in Iowa. But rather than accepting or rejecting this as just another blustery attempt at wishful thinking, indulge me for a few minutes as I give my rational and math.

First, Ron Paul is running as a republican in a state where the base is disenchanted with those they have sent to office. They are unhappy with the war in Iraq, baffled at the massive increase in the size and scope of government, and especially perplexed at the President's unwillingness to defend our borders.

Second, according to conventional polling, the republican base in Iowa doesn't really prefer any one candidate and feel most have serious flaws of one sort or another. Whether Rudy's lack of morals, Mitt's lack of a backbone, Fred's comatose arrogance, John's acid temper, or Mike's specter of universal alter calls, all of them leave a slight foul aftertaste in the back of one's mouth.

Third, any Iowan can register as a republican – right up to walking in to the local precinct caucus on January 3rd. Coupled with this, democrats nationwide and in Iowa are not happy with their congressional representative's (read Hillary and Barack) failure to end the war in Iraq.

Keeping these three factors in mind, consider the math behind Dr. Paul's impending victory.

In the 2000 presidential campaign, some 87,666 Iowa republicans caucused in 2,114 precincts (99% of the total as per www.gwu.edu). This is an average of slightly under forty-two attendees per caucus site. Let us assume that these same people would normally attend the caucuses on January 3rd. However, applying my first point, unhappy voters are less inclined to spend several hours of their free time to participate in a process that seems to have been less than satisfactory in the past. If ten percent stay home, that will bring our average attendance to thirty-eight. Now, applying my second point and one of the more reliable pollsters (Rasmussen Iowa poll of December 17th), lets say that eleven (28%) of those thirty-eight cast their ballot for Mike Huckabee, ten (27%) cast for Mitt Romney, five (14%) cast for John McCain, three (8%) cast for Rudy Giuliani, three (8%) cast for Fred Thompson, and two (6%) cast their votes for Ron Paul. Conventional wisdom (and most likely our pundits) would say that Dr. Paul is a surefire loser.

But the last factor trumps all. Most political commentators are in agreement that Ron Paul supporters are engaged, organized, computer literate, and on fire with zeal. Volunteers across the nation are donating a week of their vacations to walk the streets and roads of Iowa to canvas votes for Dr. Paul. If one clicks on Ron Paul's official website, he or she will find very detailed instructions on how to participate in an Iowa precinct caucus as well as tips on dealing with the old party faithful. Trust me – almost all Ron Paul supporters are intimately familiar with this. By many accounts, Dr. Paul's most ardent supporters are young, energetic, and new to the political process. By definition then, these individuals would not be included in Mr. Rasmussen's polling data, so any that show up would be in addition to the thirty-eight at our hypothetical average precinct. It is plausible to expect half a dozen of these new voters to brave whatever the Iowa winter throws at them in their quest to vote for Dr. Paul. In addition, many lifelong democrats are rallying to Ron Paul's message and, because of the registration rules, can easily walk in the doors of republican precincts, register as republicans, and vote for Dr. Paul. Judging by their comments in the blogosphere, I don't think it unreasonable to expect another four disgruntled democrats to be at each of our average precincts. These ten new voters and the older two give Dr. Paul twelve votes – and first place.
So there it is. Someone once said all politics is local, and these local political processes will hand Ron Paul his first improbable victory on the way to the nomination and the White House.



Gary Skubal is a teacher in Sweeny, TX and retired reservist after spending 28 years in the Air Force and Army. He is married with five children.
[link to www.opednews.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 303787

Indubitably
Abbadon

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01/03/2008 09:20 PM
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Re: Why Ron Paul will Win in Iowa
thats why he is at 5th place so far :)
And I said, "What is this, the burning bush? For God's sake, I'm not Moses."

And the Voice said to me: "And I'm not God. What has that got to do with it?"
Anonymous Coward
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01/03/2008 09:24 PM
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Re: Why Ron Paul will Win in Iowa
thats why he is at 5th place so far :)
 Quoting: Abbadon

and why i invest agaist the dollar ;0
Anonymous Coward
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01/03/2008 09:29 PM
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Re: Why Ron Paul will Win in Iowa
thats why he is at 5th place so far :)

and why i invest agaist the dollar ;0
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 344490


Liberty dollars 5a
Abbadon

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01/03/2008 09:30 PM
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Re: Why Ron Paul will Win in Iowa
really think liberty dollars will make any changes?
And I said, "What is this, the burning bush? For God's sake, I'm not Moses."

And the Voice said to me: "And I'm not God. What has that got to do with it?"
Anonymous Coward
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01/03/2008 09:32 PM
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Re: Why Ron Paul will Win in Iowa
Since the usually erudite pundits have been so totally clueless as to what is going to happen at the Iowa caucuses, I will tell them.

Granted, Rush Limbaugh, Arianna Huffington, Sean Hannity, and all the others have been operating under historical precedence. For the last four or five decades, the old party insiders and bosses have decided the field of candidates, then various polls told us voters who the leaders were, and, after endless punditry, fund raisers, and scintillating news releases, we dutifully chose our party candidates in caucuses and primaries. The problem with this, however, is that pesky little phrase one sees on stock market advertisements, "past performance is no guarantee of future gains."

As a trained historian, I have always been amazed at instances in history where highly improbable events did indeed happen – with profound impact and consequences for all involved. Had Rush or Arianna or Sean been commentating on the course of my own state of Texas' struggle for independence, no doubt they wouldn't have given a plug nickel for success after the fall of the Alamo. The well-equipped armies of Santa Anna were chasing the remnants of ragtag Texian resistance completely out of the territory. But no one reckoned with the feisty Sam Houston who, with his followers backed up against a river and no chance of further retreat, counter-attacked Santa Anna as he dallied with Emily Morgan (the legendary Yellow Rose of Texas) in his tent, and achieved one of the greatest victories in the history of warfare. Greatest precisely because it so defied probability, "conventional wisdom," and had such profound consequences.

And so it will be in Iowa. But rather than accepting or rejecting this as just another blustery attempt at wishful thinking, indulge me for a few minutes as I give my rational and math.

First, Ron Paul is running as a republican in a state where the base is disenchanted with those they have sent to office. They are unhappy with the war in Iraq, baffled at the massive increase in the size and scope of government, and especially perplexed at the President's unwillingness to defend our borders.

Second, according to conventional polling, the republican base in Iowa doesn't really prefer any one candidate and feel most have serious flaws of one sort or another. Whether Rudy's lack of morals, Mitt's lack of a backbone, Fred's comatose arrogance, John's acid temper, or Mike's specter of universal alter calls, all of them leave a slight foul aftertaste in the back of one's mouth.

Third, any Iowan can register as a republican – right up to walking in to the local precinct caucus on January 3rd. Coupled with this, democrats nationwide and in Iowa are not happy with their congressional representative's (read Hillary and Barack) failure to end the war in Iraq.

Keeping these three factors in mind, consider the math behind Dr. Paul's impending victory.

In the 2000 presidential campaign, some 87,666 Iowa republicans caucused in 2,114 precincts (99% of the total as per www.gwu.edu). This is an average of slightly under forty-two attendees per caucus site. Let us assume that these same people would normally attend the caucuses on January 3rd. However, applying my first point, unhappy voters are less inclined to spend several hours of their free time to participate in a process that seems to have been less than satisfactory in the past. If ten percent stay home, that will bring our average attendance to thirty-eight. Now, applying my second point and one of the more reliable pollsters (Rasmussen Iowa poll of December 17th), lets say that eleven (28%) of those thirty-eight cast their ballot for Mike Huckabee, ten (27%) cast for Mitt Romney, five (14%) cast for John McCain, three (8%) cast for Rudy Giuliani, three (8%) cast for Fred Thompson, and two (6%) cast their votes for Ron Paul. Conventional wisdom (and most likely our pundits) would say that Dr. Paul is a surefire loser.

But the last factor trumps all. Most political commentators are in agreement that Ron Paul supporters are engaged, organized, computer literate, and on fire with zeal. Volunteers across the nation are donating a week of their vacations to walk the streets and roads of Iowa to canvas votes for Dr. Paul. If one clicks on Ron Paul's official website, he or she will find very detailed instructions on how to participate in an Iowa precinct caucus as well as tips on dealing with the old party faithful. Trust me – almost all Ron Paul supporters are intimately familiar with this. By many accounts, Dr. Paul's most ardent supporters are young, energetic, and new to the political process. By definition then, these individuals would not be included in Mr. Rasmussen's polling data, so any that show up would be in addition to the thirty-eight at our hypothetical average precinct. It is plausible to expect half a dozen of these new voters to brave whatever the Iowa winter throws at them in their quest to vote for Dr. Paul. In addition, many lifelong democrats are rallying to Ron Paul's message and, because of the registration rules, can easily walk in the doors of republican precincts, register as republicans, and vote for Dr. Paul. Judging by their comments in the blogosphere, I don't think it unreasonable to expect another four disgruntled democrats to be at each of our average precincts. These ten new voters and the older two give Dr. Paul twelve votes – and first place.
So there it is. Someone once said all politics is local, and these local political processes will hand Ron Paul his first improbable victory on the way to the nomination and the White House.



Gary Skubal is a teacher in Sweeny, TX and retired reservist after spending 28 years in the Air Force and Army. He is married with five children.
[link to www.opednews.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 303787


Enjoy your Fifth place finish you Alex Jones Paultards
tomato
Anonymous Coward
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01/03/2008 09:38 PM
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Re: Why Ron Paul will Win in Iowa
bump
Anonymous Coward
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01/03/2008 09:46 PM
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Re: Why Ron Paul will Win in Iowa
Want some catsup to make those words go down a lil' easier, o great political analyst?
Anonymous Coward
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01/03/2008 10:25 PM
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Re: Why Ron Paul will Win in Iowa
Want some catsup to make those words go down a lil' easier, o great political analyst?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 339288


The Paultards are in hiding
Anonymous Coward
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01/03/2008 10:26 PM
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Re: Why Ron Paul will Win in Iowa
You can't deny the Ron Paul supporters tenacity. But reality is what it is. Ron Paul LOST Iowa, and not by a little.
tbear4
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01/03/2008 11:22 PM
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Re: Why Ron Paul will Win in Iowa
he got 5th place with 10%, 4th got 12% and 3rd 13% so he is as good as 3rd place.
That is a good start! As 1st was only at 34%
Anonymous Coward
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01/04/2008 12:02 AM
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bump
Anonymous Coward
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01/04/2008 12:54 AM
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bump for more info about why Ron Paul will win in Iowa
Anonymous Coward
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01/04/2008 12:57 AM
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Re: Why Ron Paul will Win in Iowa
No,No I can't give up the ring

:bush9999:
Anonymous Coward
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01/04/2008 01:11 AM
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Re: Why Ron Paul will Win in Iowa
he got 5th place with 10%, 4th got 12% and 3rd 13% so he is as good as 3rd place.
That is a good start! As 1st was only at 34%
 Quoting: tbear4 170234


you paultards are out of your sideways minds you try to spin everything. He lost and he lost bad, but don't worry keep on donating your money to him so he can continue to pay his family members. 5a speedbanan
Anonymous Coward
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01/04/2008 01:12 AM
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Re: Why Ron Paul will Win in Iowa
10% in Iowa is GREAT.
Anonymous Coward
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01/04/2008 01:22 AM
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Re: Why Ron Paul will Win in Iowa
[link to www.youtube.com]

Look at the map in the video at 3:54

It shows Huckabee winning the most straw polls in Iowa and South Carolina, ONLY.
Anonymous Coward
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01/04/2008 01:24 AM
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Re: Why Ron Paul will Win in Iowa
10% in Iowa is GREAT.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 349643

1rof1 lmao
Anonymous Coward
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01/04/2008 02:54 PM
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Re: Why Ron Paul will Win in Iowa
Wait, I fell asleep last night and have not watched the news. Did you Ron Paul nuts win in Iowa like you said you were going to?!?!?!?!?!

He DOES NOT STAND A CHANCE and NEVER did. You fools might as well vote for Mickey Mouse.
BlondeQT

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01/04/2008 03:16 PM
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Re: Why Ron Paul will Win in Iowa
:ITsFriday:
This thread needs more cowbell!

:cowbellgif:
LS

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01/04/2008 03:22 PM
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Re: Why Ron Paul will Win in Iowa
10% in Iowa is GREAT.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 349643

90% against
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Re: Why Ron Paul will Win in Iowa
10% in Iowa is GREAT.

90% against
 Quoting: LS


Winner has around 70% against...

News