WARNING: Dangerous Santa Ana Wind Speeds detected.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
ONTARIO WEATHER SERVICE
ONTARIO, CALIFORNIA
JANUARY 16, 2008 - 12AM-PST
FINAL FORECAST FOR ENTIRE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT FORECAST.

A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SANTA ANA WIND EVENT WILL BE COMING FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE NIGHT, CONTINUING ON A MODERATE SCALE ON THURSDAY. THE WINDS ARE CALCULATING AS HIGH AS THE OCTOBER 2007 WIND SPEEDS AND AREAS AFFECTED. THIS MEANS SAN DIEGO COUNTY. READ ON BELOW FOR THIS EVENT.

A BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A GRADIENT ENOUGH TO CALCULATE OUR SANTA ANA WIND EVENT. KEEP IN MIND, THE OWS UJEAS ANALOG MODEL BACK ON DECEMBER 27, 2007 PREDICTED THIS EVENT IN ADVANCE OF ANY OTHER MODEL AVAILABLE ANYWHERE ELSE. THAT IS WHAT THE UJEAS PROJECT IS FOR. LONG RANGE ACCURACY DETERMINATION. TIME TO GET ON WITH THIS STATEMENT.

A CRITICAL SITUATION WE MAY HAVE ON OUR HANDS AS THE NEXT IN THE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT WAVE COMES IN, PEAKING WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS. LETS BREAK DOWN WHAT LOOKS MOST POSSIBLE.

FIRST OF ALL I WANT ALL PARTIES TO DISREGARD THE NWS FORECASTS IN THE PASSES AND CANYONS SAYING 75 MPH WINDS ARE GOING TO BE THERE. SURE THEY WILL BE THERE BUT OWS IS SEEING 90-95+ MPH GUSTS LATE WEDNESDAY. PLEASE JUST LISTEN TO WHAT I AM WRITING BELOW. THEY OBVIOUSLY HAVE NO IDEA WHAT EVENT THIS IS AND DOWNPLAYING IT TO THE PUBLIC IS WRONG. TRUST ME..HERE WE GO.

WE WILL FINALIZE THIS FORECAST AND SHOVE THE FINAL FORECAST WORDING ON IT. WHAT YOU READ BELOW IS THE 100% WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE FORECAST AREA. HERE WE GO.
BY 10 AM WEDNESDAY, THE WINDS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY STARTED IN THE VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS PASSES WELL IN ADVANCE. CROSS-SECTIONS ARE GIVING NUMBERS UPWARDS OF GUSTING 45 MPH IN THE VALLEYS, WITH 55 MPH IN THE PASSES AND CANYONS. AT THIS TIME, WE ARE KEEPING WINDS OFF THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTLINE RIGHT NOW DUE TO THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND SUBSIDENCE OR SINKING AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
BY 4PM WEDNESDAY, A SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO WILL BE A POINT OF ENTRY FOR THE WINDS TO SPILL OUT OF THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE GREAT BASIN. THIS, WITH SUBSIDENCE FINALLY DEVELOPING FURTHER ALONG WITH UPPER SUPPORT MOVING OVERHEAD WILL FINALLY GUST THESE STRONGER WIND SPEEDS INTO THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS, INCLUDING COSTA MESA. VALLEY WINDS GUSTING 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 75 MPH IN THE PASSES AND CANYONS IS WHAT I AM CALCULATING AT THIS TIME. ALL RUSH HOUR TRAFFIC IS URGED TO PLEASE USE CAUTION. DRIVERS, PLEASE DO NOT TRAVEL NEXT TO THE HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES AT RISK OF VEHICLE OR SELF DAMAGE IF THE WIND TURNS ONE OVER.
WE ARE HAVING SOMEWHAT OF A PROBLEM RIGHT NOW. THE PROBLEM IS NOT THE FORECAST, HOWEVER NEW NUMBERS COMING IN GENERATE A -17F TEMPERATURE IN THE GREAT BASIN. THIS ALTERS THE FORMULA DRASTICALLY.
WE ARE NOW LOOKING AT AN EVENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 95+ MPH IN THE PASSES AND CANYONS, WITH 75 MPH IN THE VALLEYS, INCLUDING THE THOUSAND OAKS AREAS AND THE NORTHERN INLAND EMPIRE SECTIONS, NOT TO MENTION SOUTH OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS IN HEAVILY POPULATED AREAS. THESE WINDS COULD HAVE ISOLATED 100 MPH GUSTS IN THE BEST SPOTS. WE ARE SOUNDING THE FORECAST ALARM FOR SUBSIDENCE TO BE MAXIMIZED AT THIS TIME WITH THE COAST OF ORANGE COUNTY GETTING A BEATING AS WELL, WHICH IS NOT COMMON WITH SANTA ANA WIND EVENTS UNLESS THE SUPPORT IS THERE. WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS EVENT. IN FACT, UPPER SUPPORT NORTHERN WINDS ALL THE WAY UP PAST 35,000 FEET, TALLER THAN MOUNT EVEREST.
THE ONTARIO WEATHER SERVICE WILL HAVE NICK MITCHELL IN HEMET SCOUTING THE DAMAGE, AND JOSHUA YOUNG IN COSTA MESA FOR DAMAGE AS WELL. DOCUMENTATION OF THIS EVENT WILL BE WRITTEN UP AT THE END OF THE EVENT AND PRESENTED WITH PROPER CREDITS SO ANYONE WITH PHOTOS PLEASE EMAIL THEM TO THE EMAIL ADDRESS PROVIDED.
BY 4AM WEDNESDAY, SOME OF THE SUPPORT WOULD BE LOST, HOWEVER NOT ALL, SO WE ARE STILL CALCULATING 55 MPH IN THE VALLEYS, WITH WELL OVER 65+ MPH FOR THE PASSES AND CANYONS, WITH THE COASTAL AREAS AT 1/2 - 1/3 THAT BUT STILL GUSTING PRETTY STRONG.
BY 10 AM THURSDAY MORNING, A LOT OF THE GRADIENT, THERMAL, AND UPPER SUPPORT WOULD BE WEAKENING SO CALCULATIONS ARE DOWN TO VALLEYS GUSTING 45 MPH WITH 55+ IN THE PASSES AND CANYONS.
BY 4PM THURSDAY WE WEAKEN EVEN FURTHER TO 25 MPH IN GUSTS IN THE VALLEYS TO 30 MPH IN THE PASSES AND CANYONS.



NOW I AM NOT GOING TO FORECAST A FASTER WIND SPEED BECAUSE I'VE NEVER SEEN THESE NUMBERS BEFORE, BUT ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND. ANOTHER MODEL HAS 60 KNT WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS WOULD MOST CERTAINLY ADD UP TO WINDS GUSTING OVER 115+ MPH IN THE PASSES AND CANYONS IF IT VERIFIED. I AM MOST CERTAINLY NOT SAYING IT WILL HAPPEN, BUT IF THIS MODEL IS CORRECT MORE SO THAN ANOTHER ONE I USE THEN IT WOULD SPELL THOSE SPEEDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. KEEP THAT IN MIND.

THE TEMPERATURE OF THESE WINDS WILL BE VERY COLD DUE TO THE COLD AIR SECTION THEY ARE GENERATING OUT OF FOR THE THERMAL SUPPORT. WINDS COMING THROUGH AREAS BELOW 45 DEGREES SHOULD BRING THE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. WIND CHILL FACTORS COULD BE DANGEROUS FOR SENSITIVE PETS, PLANTS, OR PEOPLE. WITH THAT, I WILL BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE AREA IN ADVANCE. DRESS WARM IF OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DO GOOD FOR THE MOUNTAIN RESORTS ON WEDNESDAY, AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WHEN THE TEMPERATURES DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTIONS OR TRANSPORT MAXIMIZES. ALL SNOWBOARDERS BE CAREFUL GOING UP THE PASSES, BUT YOU'LL ENJOY CALMER WINDS ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE MOUNTAIN.

K.MARTIN
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FREEZE WARNING
ONTARIO WEATHER SERVICE
JANUARY 16, 2008 - 12AM - PST

THE INLAND EMPIRE...BANNING PASS...VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS...VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL, INCLUDING MALIBU...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS...RIMOFTHEWORLD AREA...

THE ONTARIO WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR WIND CHILL FACTORS AT OR BELOW FREEZING STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT 11PM AND ENDING THURSDAY MORNING AT 6AM.

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS THE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR FREEZE TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS BE IT WIND CHILL FACTORS WHICH IS THE CASE THIS TIME.

K.MARTIN
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