| | | Page 1, 2, 3 | ASTEROID TU24 EARTH MOID NOW @ 0.8 LD
| King Neptune
User ID: 304696
1/17/2008 10:14 PM
 | | Re: ASTEROID TU24 EARTH MOID NOW @ 0.8 LD | Quote |
why do you morons keep confusing M.O.I.D. with 'collision'?
the lunar distance from our orbital intersection with this object means JACK SHIT without knowing it's relationship with the distance FROM EARTH!!!!!!
in other words...do you know how far AHEAD, or BEHIND the Earth this object will pass when it crosses our orbital path? This is the ONLY reason for concern.
SHR has a point, unless you can determine where, on Earth this object will hit - there is no doom
as for the magnetosphere....get a grip - no pole flip
and YES, I will kiss EVERY one of your asses if this object fucks with our magnetic field to the point of interfering with our lives
Will you kiss mine if it doesn't?
Then STFU! Quoting: Anonymous Coward 344531
Another unnerved debunker trying to mask his apprehension with an attempt at appearing to be a bad ass.
An internet tough guy who is probably biting his nails at the thought of how this comet could change life forever even if it doesn't collide.
All we have is hope that a dragon will be born again, and one will rise to lead us to freedom. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 344531
1/17/2008 10:19 PM | | Re: ASTEROID TU24 EARTH MOID NOW @ 0.8 LD | Quote |
who is unnerved?
me, showing the weak links in your argument?
or you, making doom out of thin air by misreading all data to fit your warped sense of reality?
woo woo woo woo woo woo woo woo |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 357105 (OP)
1/17/2008 10:19 PM | | Re: ASTEROID TU24 EARTH MOID NOW @ 0.8 LD | Quote |
why do you morons keep confusing M.O.I.D. with 'collision'?
the lunar distance from our orbital intersection with this object means JACK SHIT without knowing it's relationship with the distance FROM EARTH!!!!!!
in other words...do you know how far AHEAD, or BEHIND the Earth this object will pass when it crosses our orbital path? This is the ONLY reason for concern.
SHR has a point, unless you can determine where, on Earth this object will hit - there is no doom
as for the magnetosphere....get a grip - no pole flip
and YES, I will kiss EVERY one of your asses if this object fucks with our magnetic field to the point of interfering with our lives
Will you kiss mine if it doesn't?
Then STFU! Quoting: Anonymous Coward 344531
WOW ARE YOU MISLED!
Minimum Orbital Intersection Distance
The minimum orbital intersection distance (MOID) is the minimum distance between the osculating orbits of two objects. It indicates the closest possible approach of the two objects except where excluded by protective resonance.
As such, the MOID can act as an early warning indicator for collision between an asteroid and a planet. A large MOID between and asteroid and the Earth indicates the asteroid will not collide with Earth in the near term. Asteroids with a small MOID to Earth should be carefully followed because they can become Earth colliders.
Because of long-range planetary gravitational perturbations and, particularly, close planetary approaches, asteroid orbits change with time. Consequently, MOID also changes. As a rule of thumb, MOID can change by up to 0.02 AU per century, except for approaches within 1 AU of massive Jupiter, where the change can be large. Thus an asteroid that has a small MOID with any planet should be monitored.
Each day, we calculate the MOIDs between the inner solar system planets and near-Earth asteroids (NEAs). We limit the table of MOID values presented here to 0.05 AU or less for terrestrial planets and 1 AU or less for Jupiter. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 344531
1/17/2008 10:23 PM | | Re: ASTEROID TU24 EARTH MOID NOW @ 0.8 LD | Quote |
there you go misinterpreting data, again
man, a little knowledge is a dangerous thing
internet surfing gives you understanding of what you c/p?
decreased MOID can give a warning of a future collision
read what you fucking posted, asshat |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 344531
1/17/2008 10:24 PM | | Re: ASTEROID TU24 EARTH MOID NOW @ 0.8 LD | Quote |
IT DOES NOT STATE IMMINENT DOOM |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 357105 (OP)
1/17/2008 10:25 PM | | Re: ASTEROID TU24 EARTH MOID NOW @ 0.8 LD | Quote |
there you go misinterpreting data, again
man, a little knowledge is a dangerous thing
internet surfing gives you understanding of what you c/p?
decreased MOID can give a warning of a future collision
read what you fucking posted, asshat Quoting: Anonymous Coward 344531
Comprehend what you just read! |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 357105 (OP)
1/17/2008 10:26 PM | | Re: ASTEROID TU24 EARTH MOID NOW @ 0.8 LD | Quote |
IT DOES NOT STATE IMMINENT DOOM Quoting: Anonymous Coward 344531
Where did say we are doomed yet? |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 344531
1/17/2008 10:27 PM | | Re: ASTEROID TU24 EARTH MOID NOW @ 0.8 LD | Quote |
i do
it says "You are an ASSHAT" |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 357105 (OP)
1/17/2008 10:27 PM | | Re: ASTEROID TU24 EARTH MOID NOW @ 0.8 LD | Quote |
IT DOES NOT STATE IMMINENT DOOM Quoting: Anonymous Coward 344531
Where did I say we were doomed yet? |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 357105 (OP)
1/17/2008 10:28 PM | | Re: ASTEROID TU24 EARTH MOID NOW @ 0.8 LD | Quote |
i do
it says "You are an ASSHAT" Quoting: Anonymous Coward 344531
Whatever fuz nuts! |
| Moonwolf
User ID: 155573
1/18/2008 12:56 AM
 | | Re: ASTEROID TU24 EARTH MOID NOW @ 0.8 LD | Quote |
What if it does what? Please be specific.
What if it simply comes close enough to interact with invisible forces like the magnetosphere or cause a flip in our magnetic poles?
If the magnetic poles reversed people would be fried by radiation from the sun. Quoting: King Neptune
Except you have not shown the slightest evidence to show this object has a magnetic field.
Sure, it has a surface charge from living deep in the solar wind, but there is not the slightest bit of data to support the idea it will have any macroscale effect of the Earth or its environs.
But facts never got in the way of a bunker load of dingbattery.
My prediction: NOTHING will happen. |
| King Neptune
User ID: 304696
1/18/2008 1:39 AM
| | Re: ASTEROID TU24 EARTH MOID NOW @ 0.8 LD | Quote |
Of course nothing's going to happen. It's posted on GLP.
All we have is hope that a dragon will be born again, and one will rise to lead us to freedom. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 357105 (OP)
1/18/2008 9:02 AM | | Re: ASTEROID TU24 EARTH MOID NOW @ 0.8 LD | Quote |
We get new telementry on the 23rd?? |
| planetbarb
User ID: 355842
1/19/2008 9:14 PM
 | | Re: ASTEROID TU24 EARTH MOID NOW @ 0.8 LD | Quote |
Anyways, I did some sluething on Asteroid TU24 and found this interesting! If you run JPLS program an hour at a time on the 28th you see that the distance to Earth changes ~.00002 AU per hour. However on the 29th it changes ~.00001 AU per hour and starting at 0900 hrs it stays at .00038AU untill 1500 hrs. What di it do for six hours stop? You know how far that thing travels in six hours and they have it stopping????
[ link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]
RE how fast the asteroids can go:
This is from the orbit diagram page
[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov] Orbit
2007 TU24 is at .0086 AUs on the 28th of January 08
2007 TU24 is at .0045 Aus the following day, 29 Jan 08 [Noted it is listed as.0037 and lower than that on some sites.]
Astronomical unit
Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia - Cite This Source
The astronomical unit (AU or au or a.u. or sometimes ua) is a unit of length approximately equal to the distance from the Earth to the Sun. The currently accepted value of the AU is 149 597 870 691 ± 30 metres (nearly 150 million kilometres or 93 million miles). |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 355759
1/19/2008 9:29 PM | | Re: ASTEROID TU24 EARTH MOID NOW @ 0.8 LD | Quote |
I dont care what U say, That is one big FU--kin asteroid. |
| planetbarb
User ID: 355842
1/19/2008 11:07 PM | | Re: ASTEROID TU24 EARTH MOID NOW @ 0.8 LD | Quote |
Just a bit more data on 2007 TU24
I am not saying we should be terrified but I don't think it is just business as usual. a lot of people are still workin on this and other asteroids to predict what it will do and when. Something I learned tonight it has what is known as an "Apollo orbit," defined below. These are earth-crossing asteroids.
[link to echo.jpl.nasa.gov]
2007 TU24 was discovered by the Catalina Sky Survey (Arizona) on October 11, 2007.
This object's 1.4-lunar-distance approach on Jan. 29 is the closest for any
known Potentially Hazardous Asteroid until 2027.
ADDITIONAL ASTROMETRY IS STILL DESIRABLE FOR THIS OBJECT
Apart from its absolute visual magnitude (H = 20.1, implying a
diameter ~0.3 km if it has a typical S-class albedo), nothing is known
about TU24's physical properties, but the expected echo
signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) almost certainly will suffice for
high-resolution imaging using Arecibo or Goldstone.
Goldstone observations are scheduled on January 23 and Arecibo observations are
scheduled on January 27-28 and February 1-4. Note that Goldstone observations straddle
the January 23-24 date boundary.
This object will brighten to about 11th magnitude in late January
when it will be a target for photometric and spectroscopic observations.
Orbital and Physical Characteristics
orbit type Apollo
semimajor axis 2.010 AU
eccentricity 0.529
inclination 5.8°
perihelion distance 0.947 AU
aphelion distance 3.073 AU
absolute magnitude (H) 20.1
diameter 300 meters +- a factor of two
rotation period unknown
pole direction unknown
lightcurve amplitude unknown
spectral class unknown
Apollo Asteroid
The Apollo asteroids are a class of with -crossing orbits. The first Apollo asteroid was discovered in 1918 by Max Wolf observing from Heidelberg, Germany.
Full article >>>
Apollo Asteroid
The Apollo asteroids are a class of asteroids with Earth-crossing orbits. The first Apollo asteroid was discovered in 1918 by Max Wolf observing from Heidelberg, Germany. A table of large Apollo asteroids is contained in Sky & Telescope (March 1990). There are 240 known Apollos (Minor Planet Center), but it is believed that there are at least 2000 Earth-crossers with diameters of 1 km or larger, 100,000 larger than the Rose Bowl, and 70-80 million larger than a typical house (Ostro 1997). One of the largest Apollos is Geographos, which is km in size and was discovered in 1951 as part of the Palomar Observatory Sky Survey (sponsored by the National Geographic Society, hence the asteroid's name). Earth-crossing asteroids pose a very real (if statistically unlikely) danger to the Earth. An impacting asteroid makes a crate about 10-20 times its size. An asteroid 1 km in size kicks so much dust into the atmosphere that sunlight would be blocked for several years, resulting in a global agricultural catastrophe. Such events are estimated to happen every 100,000 years or so. 10-km asteroids are so large that their impact could result in the destruction of most animal life on Earth (Ostro 1997). The Tunguska event was caused by an asteroid roughly 60 meters across (Ostro 1997). These events happen once every several centuries. There has recently been a great deal of interest (and concern) in the dangers of an Earth-crossing asteroid hitting the Earth. While the probability of such an event is relatively small, the consequences could be globally catastrophic. After all, a Tunguska-like even occur in Los Angeles or New York would be enough to spoil the day for many millions of people. For many years, however, there was a pronounced lack of interest in locating Earth-crossing asteroids. An observing program called spacewatch is now underway under the auspices of Drs. Tom Gehrels and Bob McMillan at the Lunar and Planetary Lab of the University of Arizona. At the time this survey was begun, no more than a dozen or so Earth-crossers were known. This number has since been pushed into the hundreds. In 1986, Carolyn Shoemaker discovered the object 1986JK which passed a mere km from Earth. Asteroid 1989FC (4769 Castalia) passed within 700,000 km of Earth on March 22, 1989. This asteroid was probably between 200 and 5000 m in diameter (Sky & Telescope 1989; Hudson and Ostro 1994). An Earth-crossing asteroid designated 1990MF sped past Earth on July 10, 1990 at a comparatively tiny distance of 3 million miles, or 0.033 AU (IAU Circular number 5050). The asteroid was observed with radar by the Arecibo Ionospheric Observatory, leading to extremely precise estimates of its trajectory. The asteroid was estimated to be 300 to 1,000 feet in diameter. 1991BA, a body m across passed within 800,000 km of Earth (Sky and Telescope 1991). On Dec. 8, 1992, Asteroid 4179 Toutatis passed within 0.024 AU (9.4 lunar distances). It was imaged by Goldstone and Arecibo (Ostro et al. 1995, Hudson and Ostro 1995). It appears to have two lobes, with dimensions km. On Sep. 24, 2004, Toutatis will pass within a scant 0.010360 AU (4 lunar distances) of Earth (Hudson and Ostro 1995). On May 19, 1996, asteroid 1996JA1 passed only slightly outside the orbit of the Moon, and on May 25, 1996JG passed by at 8 lunar distances (Ostro 1997). Amor Asteroid, Aten Asteroid, Asteroid, Tunguska Event --. Sky & Telescope, 264, Mar. 1990. Hudson, R. S. and Ostro, S. J. "Shape of Asteroid 4769 Castalia (1989 PB) from Inversion of Radar Images." Science 263, 940-943, 1994. Hudson, R. S. and Ostro, S. J. "Shape and Non-Principal Axis Spin State of Asteroid 4179 Toutatis." Science 270, 84-86, 1995. Minor Planet Center. "Unusual Minor Planets." [link to cfa-www.harvard.edu] Ostro, S. J. "Radar Observations of Earth-Approaching Asteroids." Engineering and Science: The Alumni Magazine of the California Institute of Technology 55, No. 1, 15-23, 1997. Ostro, S. J. "Asteroid Radar Research." [link to echo.jpl.nasa.gov] Ostro, S. J.; Hudson, R. S.; Jurgens, R. F.; Rosema. K. D.; Campbell, D. B.; Yeomans, D. K.; Chandler, J. F.; Giorgini, J. D.; Winkler, R.; Rose, R.; Howard, S. D.; Slade, M.; Perillat, P.; and Shapiro, I. I. "Radar Images of Asteroid 4179 Toutatis." Science 270, 80-83, 1995. Ostro, S. J. et al. "Extreme Elongation of Asteroid 1620 Geographos from Radar Images." Nature 375, 474-477, 1995. Spacewatch. "The Spacewatch Project." [link to spacewatch.lpl.arizona.edu] © 1996-2007 Eric W. Weisstein
Statistics A fundamental aspect of astrometry is error correction. Various factors introduce errors into the measurement of stellar positions, including atmospheric conditions, imperfections in the instruments and errors by the observer or the measuring instruments. Many of these errors can be reduced by various techniques, such as through instrument improvements and compensations to the data. The results are then analyzed using statistical methods to compute data estimates and error ranges. |
| ZOSIME
User ID: 314632
1/19/2008 11:33 PM
 | | Re: ASTEROID TU24 EARTH MOID NOW @ 0.8 LD | Quote |
there you go misinterpreting data, again
man, a little knowledge is a dangerous thing
internet surfing gives you understanding of what you c/p?
decreased MOID can give a warning of a future collision
read what you fucking posted, asshat Quoting: Anonymous Coward 344531
I bet you think the girls in Texas didn't see a UfO iether right. It was just flares I'm sure |
| MATT..
User ID: 331690
1/20/2008 1:27 PM | | Re: ASTEROID TU24 EARTH MOID NOW @ 0.8 LD | Quote |
What if it does what? Please be specific.
What if it simply comes close enough to interact with invisible forces like the magnetosphere or cause a flip in our magnetic poles?
If the magnetic poles reversed people would be fried by radiation from the sun. Quoting: King Neptune
Hi!
Important point.
Hot on the trail...
I've made a point to cover the core of this in the blog under
-- -- RECENT POLE SHIFTS OF THE SUN AND PLANETS... A FORECAST OF OUR OWN FUTURE? -- --
Safe Click-through LINK: (scroll almost 1/2 way down)
[link to digg.com]
I've seen new data that says that there is a possibility that the actual behavior in that (magnetic pole shift) event is one of a reconfiguration of the poles into groups and hot spots of smaller pole points in a confused in between state process that retains much of the field but in a disordered state.
SAFECLICK: NASA PIC LINK:
[link to science.nasa.gov]
There are times when there have been multiple flaring from the Sun in a secession which first pushed back the field envelope and then on a strong solar wind from a large coronal hole kept showering us until a subsequent flare reached us while the shields were down. We did not get a flip of the poles or fry under these massively overwhelming conditions of a quotient of planet sized magnetic change from the Sun, in these episodes so we can kinda get a handle on how much of a stir this little mighty mite can possibly make.
If there are no 'out of the ordinary' flares and or solar winds or current sheet configurations affecting us in the time frame, we can see it is not a given that we automatically are gonna be toast it seems. because we will retain some field though highly disheveled.
The Earth's magnetic field has undergone massive change when we were hit with successive flaring during solar max in the past, so I have yet to see that the magnetism of the 1/4 mile rock is a big enough player to be anymore than creating possibly a plasma aurora and trailing. We are talking about wild swings across the surface of the asteroid and a possible excitation with plasma to the point of having it light up and like a plasma electrode like the shuttle did if encountering sufficient differential with the Earth's differing potential, but there are no people inside the rock to perish as far as we know. It is possible gonna possibly have a chance to "play act" like a mini plasma body comet, but not actually have the oomph do in a larger 7,000 mile wide body Earth as I see it.
The real thing we may want to watch is that there is a missing window of time on the NASA simulation chart where the distance disclosure measurement freezes-- at one measurement as unchanging in the distance yet the angled trajectories of the players still has them on the actual path either approaching even closer or pulling away.
Watching the ramping up progression of actual approach, it is clear that the two bodies (Earth and the Object) are either nearing one another or pulling away (or alternately a combination of both) at roughly 10,000 miles for each hour and there are six to seven hours of missing measurements to consider. Even if it did something crazy and came to the nearest point after 3 1/2 to 4 hours and got pulled in a little farther for the additional two we are still only 60 or 70,000 miles closer in from a rough last closest approach figure of .00096 AU (93,000,000 miles) (3,000,000 X .00096 = 89,280 miles.
If we have 89,200 as a basic alarm point and we take away 60, or 70,000 miles as an unknown approach window outside chance possibility (due to the missing window of disclosed time and further nearing approach it still clears us by 20 - 30,000 miles.
Q: What is this "missing window on the NASA chart" you keep referring to?
A: It is from the 9th hour till the 15th UTC where the approach distance clearly should still be ticking in as the bodies continue to be heading toward an angling closer approach or at some point in the six hours reaches the closest distance point and then is pulling away at some point in the window. Even if it didn't start pulling away for the whole 6 hours or so there appears to be still a buffer of time and space. If a cannon ball or a bullet type 1/4 mile projectile flies close by that is one thing... If it contacts the atmosphere or something else, then we are into another problem.
Matt
What am I looking at?
The fact that Comet Holmes is right now raking through the Asteroid belt in a swath that is reportedly 7 times the size of the Sun. How can this not set all kinds of bogies that used to be safely minding their business into the inner solar system making it very very very hazardous to be following an orbital ring with no ability to steer, slow, or avoid such rocks here on out.
This is the REAL news.
LOOK:
[link to upload.wikimedia.org]
[link to www.crystalinks.com]
This here is the cutting edge of thought on the entire planet.
Right here on GLP.
If you can tell me anywhere-- anywhere else I can go and discuss the most cutting edge stuff that may have it better-- let's have it...?
Matt
~
 |
| MATT..
User ID: 331690
1/20/2008 1:27 PM | | Testie
User ID: 352729
1/20/2008 9:06 PM | | Re: ASTEROID TU24 EARTH MOID NOW @ 0.8 LD | Quote |
Q: What is this "missing window on the NASA chart" you keep referring to?
A: It is from the 9th hour till the 15th UTC where the approach distance clearly should still be ticking in as the bodies continue to be heading toward an angling closer approach or at some point in the six hours reaches the closest distance point and then is pulling away at some point in the window. Even if it didn't start pulling away for the whole 6 hours or so there appears to be still a buffer of time and space. If a cannon ball or a bullet type 1/4 mile projectile flies close by that is one thing... If it contacts the atmosphere or something else, then we are into another problem. Quoting: MATT.. 331690
This reminds me of the missing hours of video from 'Contact'.
Could this be a rather important bit of information? |
| adam
User ID: 359860
1/22/2008 12:23 PM | | Re: ASTEROID TU24 EARTH MOID NOW @ 0.8 LD | Quote |
loot loot loot  |
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