Tornado Dynamics AR/TX/LA/MS 2/25/08 LATE NIGHT!

ONTARIO WEATHER SERVICE
TORNADO DYNAMICS LABS
FEBRUARY 25, 2008 - 4:00am PST

Attempting the first County Map location of the tornadic activity during the time-frame. All NWS spotters in this area that are trained take note, and please be careful. All truckers and drivers in these areas be careful as well.

Technical : A surface low currently over Southwestern Kansas will move East of the day to Northeastern Oklahoma, and finally by Evening over Southern Missouri, and Northern Arkansas. This low will pull up gulf moisture at an impressive rate. This, with a moderate low level jet will bring conditions favorable for severe thunderstorms to form, mainly after sunset in Southwestern Arkansas. Isolated areas of this severe thunderstorm location can and may produce a weak to strong tornado, especially with a 120 knt upper level jet from the West-Southwest into the area, enhancing lifting. All chasers head to the most probable county I am think and wait there. You still have plenty of time to drive there if interested in helping the NWS out in issuing warnings on time. Track the supercell from the watch box. The very first test of pinpointing the supercell chances the most, and track is being done tonight. Check the watch box and pink outlined areas for details.

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Level 3 tornado dynamics in Southern Arkansas tonight.

After sunset to just before midnight 2/25/08 ( 14-18 hour warning time )

TORNADO WATCH: All NWS spotters and public, was thinking of advisory, however because of the level 3 showing up had to put a watch down. A level 3 means weak or strong tornado, and a touchdown likely. Touchdown likely means that the chances of a tornado are moderate - high. If in the watch box area, which includes the city of Magnolia, Arkansas, please take note. The counties I choose are around Northern Columbia County, and on over to Central Ouachita. This is sometime after sunset I believe so a night tornado is dangerous, especially those sleeping. All chasers and spotters warn if possible. Activity should move Eastward at 30 mph. The pink outline means the long track rotating supercell is possibly to cross this area, mainly the Southern end of the pink outline, 1-2 hours after it cross the watch box.

TORNADO ADVISORY: All NWS spotters and public, A line of individual storms possible from Shreveport to Eastern Texas after sunset is possible. Level 2 and 1 tornado dynamics in this area only suggest marginal chances of a weak tornado or thunderstorm rotation. Still, an advisory means keep peeled to NOAA weather radio or the media sources for more information. Activity will move East at 30 mph or so. Most probably initiation for this advisory would be just Northwest of Shreveport for anything.

[link to ontarioweatherservice.com]
The pink outline means the long track rotating supercell is possibly to cross this area, mainly the Southern end of the pink outline, 1-2 hours after it cross the watch box.

[link to ontarioweatherservice.com]
If you are a trained weather spotter for the NWS you must be around the targeted area at this exact time frame to report tornadic activity, moving EAST. Highways preferred will be US 79 for your Northeast and Southwest driving, and US 82 East of Magnolia, Arkansas for your West or East driving.

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Around midnight to early morning, not after sunrise 2/26/08 ( 18 - 21 hour warning time )

TORNADO ADVISORY: All NWS spotters and public, Thunderstorms in Southwestern and Southern Arkansas tonight will move on over out of the tornado watch box above, and be into the Northwestern Mississippi areas during this time-frame. It is possible that a rotating thunderstorm from the tornado watch box above may make it into Mississippi through Southeastern Arkansas. The chances of tornadoes is possible with this on-going convective section from Minter City, North-Northeastward 50-100 miles in the advisory. Level 3 is showing up, so a chance of a tornado is possible but lack of an extreme lift source may keep possibly to slight.

TORNADO ADVISORY: All NWS spotters and public, Passing disturbance will cause ongoing chances of thunderstorms after midnight and into the early morning before sunrise periods of Tuesday. The level 3 is showing up near Marksville, Louisiana. Was weighting on the tornado watch, however will just keep it as that. Likely hood a capping in Southern Louisiana will keep storms under control South of the level outlines.

[link to ontarioweatherservice.com]

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