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Tornado Across the NE/E USA Today! And Oklahoma 5/31/08

 
Kevin Martin
User ID: 433384
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05/31/2008 08:54 AM
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Tornado Across the NE/E USA Today! And Oklahoma 5/31/08
Tornado Prediction Center
Ontario Weather Service
Ontario, California
May 31, 2008 – 8:00amCDT

Strong to violent tornadoes are possible across the Northeastern / Eastern Coast of the United States today. This very unusual setup will be aided by strong dynamics so read on for details.

By early afternoon, ongoing showers and thunderstorms will be persisting across the Northeastern part of the nation. These thunderstorms will be in a highly sheared environment capable of producing tornadoes.

Indication are telling me that the danger zone where the most convergence, lift and instability will be will be in the Northern New Jersey sections, Northward into Eastern New York. Now I’m not a big fan of seeing such high shear values for this area. However, this looks like one of those rare days. One you don’t see but once every 20 years or so in this area. Seems like the rare days are starting to come out at once over the past year. This area is prone to possibly strong to violent tornadoes (EF3 – EF5) this afternoon. A pretty respectable cap will be in place so I would probably target Northwestern New Jersey.

Further East into Northern Oklahoma and Southern Kansas a warm frontal zone will be the focus for tornadic storms. At this time, we look to have a cap in place during the early afternoon at around 10,000 feet so this should keep storms from developing too much.

The Northeastern USA frontal zone should clear the Eastern Coast of New Jersey during the early evening.
North of there will be met with the strong convergence zone. This convergence zone will be in the Southeastern Vermont to Southwestern New Hampshire locations. The forcing along this zone will create severe thunderstorm chances. The shear in this zone looks favorable for tornadoes so keep on the look out up here. I do have a special concern for this area in fact. The convergence zone is very strong. Instability is enough for robust updrafts. The low level flow into this area is over 50-60 mph. This does spell strong to violent tornadoes possible. This is most likely the same piece of energy that will fly out of Southeastern New York a few hours earlier. Lack of cap in this area suggests this might actually happen so be on the extra look out. EF2 – EF5 tornadoes are possible in this area during the early evening.

Further South along the cold front, instability remains very strong across the Central Virginia area. This is an area to watch as well because with this instability, severe thunderstorms are very possible and probable during the early evening. Shear values are not that impressive however the convergence profiles are in this area. This could lead to tornadoes given this kind of strong convergence regardless of shear. Main concern would ultimately be hail and wind with isolated tornadoes.

The cap will finally break during the later afternoon hours in Oklahoma. Indications are of a violent tornado possible along the warm frontal boundary where strong convergence and strong shear will exist coupled with strong instability and more than enough moisture. I-35 North out of Oklahoma City will be a very dangerous road. Especially between Oklahoma City, Oklahoma and Wichita, Kansas. I am seeing this stay away from both metro areas at this time. Target zones are Perry, Bedrock, and Pawnee, Oklahoma. This is the general area of most concern for initiation of storms, being tornadic.

By sunset and maybe night, the Southern extent of the frontal boundary will be over the Southeastern Virginia area. This area looks interesting due to the fact it will have increased low-level wind dynamics all day. Instability will be very high in this area. Shear values ahead and along the initial frontal zone support strong to violent tornadoes as well as strong low-level convergence along the coastal convergence zone in this area. Moisture values are very high and LCL level will be very low. Bases will be low, and able to support a wedge tornado.

Around the same time further West, Oklahoma will still be firing thunderstorms in a West to East fashion across a strong convergence zone associated with the warm front there. Mid level capping is possible on the Eastern part of it. Any storms that do form there should be weak at most, with the strongest, most powerful storms being West of I-35 in an area of stronger convergence and no capping at the surface or aloft. Oklahoma City looks to stay out of these however you’ll find a nice light show to your North!
CO SKY WATCHER

User ID: 366470
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05/31/2008 09:28 AM

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Re: Tornado Across the NE/E USA Today! And Oklahoma 5/31/08
Thanks Kevin, I have emailed some family members back in E NY and VT and sent them your post. I hope they are safe today/tonight. I grew up in VT but live in CO now, in the high country and don't see any tornadoes here, and rarely have tornadoes back in New England also, like you say a 1 in 20 yr event here! I appreciate what you do on here. Do you have a website where this is posted and can check on this activity regularly? THX
There were giants in the earth in those days; and also after that, when the sons of God came in unto the daughters of men, and they bare children to them, the same [became] mighty men which [were] of old, men of renown...Genesis 6:4
Anonymous Coward
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05/31/2008 09:30 AM
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Re: Tornado Across the NE/E USA Today! And Oklahoma 5/31/08
heavy kevvym how's yer chevy?
Anonymous Coward
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05/31/2008 09:41 AM
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Re: Tornado Across the NE/E USA Today! And Oklahoma 5/31/08
Woah. Uh oh. I'm in Northwestern NJ - this doesn't sound too good.
Kevin Martin (OP)
User ID: 433384
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05/31/2008 09:56 AM
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Re: Tornado Across the NE/E USA Today! And Oklahoma 5/31/08
The main site is [link to www.OWSweather.com]

The main tornado site is.

[link to www.owsweather.com]


And if you are in NW NJ I suggest you keep tune to whatever you can.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 204946
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05/31/2008 10:10 AM
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Re: Tornado Across the NE/E USA Today! And Oklahoma 5/31/08
The main site is [link to www.OWSweather.com]

The main tornado site is.

[link to www.owsweather.com]


And if you are in NW NJ I suggest you keep tune to whatever you can.
 Quoting: Kevin Martin 433384



Thanks, will do. You've been pretty darn accurate... this is a little unnerving because it's kinda rare here, although we do get some severe storms once in a while.
Kevin Martin (OP)
User ID: 433384
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05/31/2008 10:33 AM
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Re: Tornado Across the NE/E USA Today! And Oklahoma 5/31/08
TORNADO PREDICTION CENTER
ONTARIO WEATHER SERVICE
MAY 31, 2008 - 7:30AM PDT -

Enhanced Tornado Watch -

An Enhanced Tornado Watch has been issued for the Northern Oklahoma area along a warm frontal zone that will be in the area in the later afternoon into sunset. Thunderstorms erupting along it are possible. Given the shear parameters and instability that will be in place violent tornadoes will be possible. The tornado watch is in an area of clear skies over Oklahoma now. This is the best instability parameter that will most likely make this area a very dangerous spot.

The storms that do form are expected to produce tornadoes effecting I-35 both east, and West of it including the highway itself. Movement will be to the East.

Tornado Watch -

A Tornado Watch has been issued for the Northeastern United States down to the Mid Atlantic. While SPC does not have many of these areas in more than 2% tornado risk TPC sees a bit more than that.

Instability already in place over much of the area as the sun warms the lower levels further. A complex off to the West may hamper some instability down today so decided not to go with an Enhanced Tornado Watch due to this. Had it been clearer we would have done so. This tornado watch extends from Vermont and New Hampshire down to the VA/NC border.
Over the evening it is quite possible that instability stored up in Virginia today will lead to explosive thunderstorm development. As these storms enter the Eastern part of the state we could be looking at strong or violent tornadoes. The convergence zone will be strong so I wouldn't doubt the chance of this.





K. MARTIN
Anonymous Coward
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05/31/2008 11:16 AM
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Re: Tornado Across the NE/E USA Today! And Oklahoma 5/31/08
I'll let you know how we did here in Okla tomorrow if I remember or and have this computer. I'll tell you this, we've been under some type of pressure system my body rejects or something for the past three days now and I'm completely worn out by the pain it puts me in. Whatever it is I'm almost positive if it contributed to a storm the energy is high enough to be an issue. This is totally bizzare to me and it hurts all over, especially the head and neck.
*Vishuz

User ID: 432360
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05/31/2008 11:16 AM
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Re: Tornado Across the NE/E USA Today! And Oklahoma 5/31/08
Ummm...

I'm in NYC... and I'm going out for the entire day soon.

Should I be on the look out for fucking tornadoes or hail?

wtf
The blackening of roses will send you to the edges of the land/
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The (Giant Flying Turtle) Guy
Critical Thinker

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05/31/2008 11:19 AM

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Re: Tornado Across the NE/E USA Today! And Oklahoma 5/31/08
Going underway overnight tonight. Should be fun, watching the Midshipmen puke.
It's good to be open-minded, just don't let your brain fall out.
Kevin Martin (OP)
User ID: 433384
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05/31/2008 11:22 AM
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Re: Tornado Across the NE/E USA Today! And Oklahoma 5/31/08
Possibly storms in NYC yes, but I see a break in the front over the city, so it is possible the front will produce South and North of the city, leaving the city untouched by tornadoes.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 405334
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05/31/2008 11:28 AM
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Re: Tornado Across the NE/E USA Today! And Oklahoma 5/31/08
I'll let you know how we did here in Okla tomorrow if I remember or and have this computer. I'll tell you this, we've been under some type of pressure system my body rejects or something for the past three days now and I'm completely worn out by the pain it puts me in. Whatever it is I'm almost positive if it contributed to a storm the energy is high enough to be an issue. This is totally freaky to me and it hurts all over, especially the head and neck.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 405334



Mat 24:22 And except those days should be shortened, there should no flesh be saved: but for the elect's sake those days shall be shortened.

Mar 13:20 And except that the Lord had shortened those days, no flesh should be saved: but for the elect's sake, whom he hath chosen, he hath shortened the days.


The church teaches that the shortening of days means he removes a little from the end to make it possible for some of his people to make it through their tribulation which is just really another one of the lies or myths the church teaches.

That shortening happened or started happening whithin the past 5 years. I distinctly remember feeling it in my spirit or inside. I told my mother about it and she said she also felt something was changed but wasn't sure what. I told her time is different and somehow things like clocks all magically adjusted to the change. I said days don't really feel as long but if you're still thinking the old and wrong way about time that it is linear than you'll never be able to notice it because it won't effect a straight line like it will the circle time is.

There are people, me being one of them, who believe God made the 24 hour day shorter. We, most of us, believe some where between 16 and 18 hours.
Kevin Martin (OP)
User ID: 433384
United States
05/31/2008 12:42 PM
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Re: Tornado Across the NE/E USA Today! And Oklahoma 5/31/08
I see rotation in my Eastern NY watch area.
Kevin Martin (OP)
User ID: 433384
United States
05/31/2008 08:01 PM
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Re: Tornado Across the NE/E USA Today! And Oklahoma 5/31/08
There we go. Tornado Warnings in my Oklahoma Enhanced Tornado Watch Box. This could get interesting along the warm front hence my ETW box.

[link to www.owsweather.com]

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