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High Risk of Tornadoes across the Plains today / tonight

 
Kevin Martin
User ID: 444778
United States
06/11/2008 10:04 AM
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High Risk of Tornadoes across the Plains today / tonight
Tornado Prediction Center
Ontario Weather Service
Ontario, California
June 11, 2008– 7:00am PDT

Source: [link to www.owsweather.com]
[link to www.owsweather.com]
TPC model: [link to www.owsweather.com]

Central Plains / Iowa / MN

Cold front will not be the most active event tornado-wise today. TPC model suggests that the cold front will have very slight to slight risk tornado dynamics. The warm sector ahead of it and associated warm front across Nebraska/Iowa /Minnesota is probably the best bet for supercells containing the most moderate to high risk of tornadoes today and tonight.

By Afternoon TPC tornado model suggests a very small area of tornado dynamics across the USA. This is most likely due to a cap that will still be in place over much of the area. The cold front will be through Central Nebraska and Kansas at a NNE to SSW stretch. TPC model suggests anything forming out ahead of this frontal zone will be in high risk tornado dynamics. A pretty large area from Northern KS to Southeastern NE. The triple point will be high risk tornado potential as well as shown on the TPC tornado model centered over Northeastern NE to Northwestern IA.

By Later afternoon things start to get active. Out ahead of the cold front in an isolated area in Eastern KS near Topeka is an area of moderate convergence as shown on the TPC model. This area is also in moderate to high risk tornado potential. Now remember I said anything ahead of the cold front is a danger spot today. This area is a small area in KS with this high of risk but still should be watched. The most convergence / tornado dynamics will be from Southeastern Nebraska, extreme Southeastern South Dakota, Western IA, and Southern MN across the warm front. Indications of very slight to slight risk across Wisconsin as well so they are in the cards for tornadic as well however weaker than the rest mentioned.

By Evening and Sunset the cold front will be stretching from Eastern South Dakota through Eastern Nebraska and down into Northern KS. TPC tornado model suggests semi-fast motion into 50 miles North of Omaha with it by this time so damaging winds are likely with it as it enters that area. The tornadic potential remains at slight risk across the cold front. However, further North near the surface low and triple point to the warm front is where the risk goes up to moderate right along it. Would be extreme Northeastern Nebraska, Northwestern IA, and Southwestern MN. The interesting thing about the TPC model is that it shows possible isolated supercells along a strong convergence zone stretching West to East across Northwestern IA. This area should be watched because this model suggests strong convergence / high risk tornado in Northern IA by then, well away from the cold front (where shear is maximized).
The warm front will be active as well I believe. I believe MN will be at risk across Southern and Central portions with moderate tornado risk potential. This is clearly evident on the TPC tornado model for this time-frame.
The convergence zone in Northeastern KS is still firing on the model during this time. Had a supercell form there this afternoon it will take that path through KS as a long tracker.

By the night instability will be going down and cap will be getting stronger. For the early part of the night till just before midnight we will still have enough instability in. The cold front will be firing still from Western MN through Western IA and on down through Southeastern Nebraska and Northern KS. A bump of in the slight risk in Northern KS suggests slight risk tornado potential there. However, because the convergence zone is firing strong on the model we will scale back and say most likely linear at best with of course very slight tornado potential. The model is showing a strong push of the front into Northwestern IA. This leads me to believe that damaging winds are very likely the most possible in that area as it comes out of Northeastern Nebraska a few hours before. Tornado potential remains moderate - high out ahead of it. TPC tornado labs model suggests isolated supercell activity possible out ahead of this into Northern IA.
Eastern KS into extreme Western MO will be a slight risk tornado potential as well. However because this area is still showing moderate to high risk in a rather large area out ahead of the cold front, damaging winds and tornadoes are still possible, mostly in Northwestern MO by that time as the model loop does suggest outflow from the cold front storms into the area by then.



K. MARTIN
Kevin Martin (OP)
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06/11/2008 10:25 AM
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Re: High Risk of Tornadoes across the Plains today / tonight
Enhanced Tornado Watch 001- Issued 7:15amPDT - The Tornado Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Tornado Watch. Watch is capable of F3 or strong tornadoes or possible outbreak fashion. This watch goes from Extreme Southeastern SD / Northeastern Nebraska through Northwestern IA and Extreme Southern MN. Dynamics in the TPC tornado model suggest a triple point area with maximized shear / instability / and upper divergence this afternoon through sunset. Supercells capable of producing long lasting damaging tornadoes are possible in this watch area.
Kevin Martin (OP)
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06/11/2008 10:36 AM
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Re: High Risk of Tornadoes across the Plains today / tonight
Tornado Watch 001 - Issued 7:30amPDT - The Tornado Prediction Center has issued a tornado watch effective this afternoon into the early night. Thunderstorms firing in and around this watch box will be capable of producing tornadoes today and/or tonight. Most dynamics exist in Northeastern KS, Eastern NE, and Western IA within this watch zone.
Kevin Martin (OP)
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06/11/2008 11:03 AM
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Re: High Risk of Tornadoes across the Plains today / tonight
This should do it.

Tornado Watch 002 - Issued 8:00amPDT - The Tornado Prediction Center has issued a tornado watch effective this afternoon and into the night. Activity firing along a retreating warm front is possible in and around the watch zone. Dynamics are favorable for tornadoes within this frontal zone. Activity firing in the triple point over the afternoon and evening in IA/MN will move up into this watch zone as potentially active tornadic supercells.

Tornado Advisory 001 - Issued 8:00amPDT - The Tornado Prediction Center has issued a tornado advisory for weaker tornado dynamics along the warm front from extreme Eastern South Dakota eastward through Central MN. Most active chance is evening. Also any storms moving from the Enhanced Watch or regular tornado watch zone will move North into this area. As they move into more stable air North of the advisory zone overnight they should die.

Tornado Advisory 002 - Issued 8:00amPDT - The Tornado Prediction Center has issued a tornado advisory for weaker tornado dynamics along the main cold front boundary. This watch is effective this afternoon through the early part of the night and includes West Central KS from North to South borders. Although slim risks will exist in the area of the cold front, dynamics are favorable to mention this advisory zone.
gsbltd

User ID: 449959
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06/11/2008 11:07 AM
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Re: High Risk of Tornadoes across the Plains today / tonight
Thanks[!] for your info, Kevin!! Here in Wichita we've learned to listen to everybody's reports/projections... it's good to know you're out there trying to keep us safe.
gsbltd

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06/11/2008 11:08 AM
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Re: High Risk of Tornadoes across the Plains today / tonight
Thanks[!] for your info, Kevin!! Here in Wichita we've learned to listen to everybody's reports/projections... it's good to know you're out there trying to keep us safe.
gsbltd

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06/11/2008 11:08 AM
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Re: High Risk of Tornadoes across the Plains today / tonight
Sorry about the multiple posts!!! I gotta' get a new keyboard.. this one's bewitched.
Kevin Martin (OP)
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06/11/2008 11:16 AM
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Re: High Risk of Tornadoes across the Plains today / tonight
Bewitched in Wichita!

Looks like most of it will stay West and North today there. I think you are just East of the advisory box I have out, and South of the larger tornado watch.
Kevin_Martin (OP)
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06/11/2008 12:49 PM
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Re: High Risk of Tornadoes across the Plains today / tonight
Tornado Prediction Center
Ontario Weather Service
Ontario, California
June 11, 2008 - 9:45amPDT
CONCERNING THE TORNADO WATCH AREA

Decreasing cap and increased instability will give way over the next several hours to thunderstorm development across Northeastern KS, Eastern Nebraska, Southeastern SD, Southern MN, Western IA, and Northwestern MO. Latest satellite images show clearing skies in the area. Analysis shows instability is on the rise and cap is breaking every hour. Expecting full cap break as cold air moves overhead to further weaken the cap. Increased upper divergence is also noted.
These thunderstorms will form in the TPC Tornado Watch zones and tornadoes will be possible.
Anonymous Coward
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06/11/2008 01:11 PM
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Re: High Risk of Tornadoes across the Plains today / tonight
bsflag bsflag bsflag


They always talk about tornados and instability, but all we ever get are gay little thunder showers.


I WANT A STORM!!! A REAL FUCKING GOT TO GO HIDE IN THE STAIRWELL OMG WE ARE ALL GONNA DIE PISS YOUR PANTS FUCKING STORM.
Kevin Martin (OP)
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06/11/2008 01:14 PM
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Re: High Risk of Tornadoes across the Plains today / tonight
Tornado Prediction Center is my service, lol. Not "They"

What area are you in?
Kevin Martin (OP)
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06/11/2008 05:37 PM
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Re: High Risk of Tornadoes across the Plains today / tonight
Thunderstorms have developed on time. From now on to the night is the most dangerous part of this period.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 447169
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06/11/2008 06:28 PM
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Re: High Risk of Tornadoes across the Plains today / tonight
I'll listen to the local weather service and watch radar before I'd come here and look for Kevin's threads...it's much faster to just pay attention to your local weather service.
Anonymous Coward
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06/11/2008 07:14 PM
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Re: High Risk of Tornadoes across the Plains today / tonight
The information is dubious at best.

The "predicted" hurricanes in Fla. for June 3-4 never even came close to fruition.

Martin does not know his arse from a hole in the ground. The magic eight ball is as correct as he is.

Another deadbeat wannabe.

Stick to you pyramids scheme.
Kevin Martin (OP)
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06/11/2008 08:18 PM
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Re: High Risk of Tornadoes across the Plains today / tonight
Right again: Tornado Warnings everywhere in my watch zones.

I am more than just an eight ball son. I know my stuff so deal with it.
hail

User ID: 450160
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06/11/2008 08:48 PM
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Re: High Risk of Tornadoes across the Plains today / tonight
i grew up in glen avon. and got in the lockheed water. tornados dont mess with the radioactive.... 5a
Kevin_Martin (OP)
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06/11/2008 09:06 PM
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Re: High Risk of Tornadoes across the Plains today / tonight
I'll listen to the local weather service and watch radar before I'd come here and look for Kevin's threads...it's much faster to just pay attention to your local weather service.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 447169



For real-time warnings yes. Not for tornado watches;)

Was ahead of the SPC by 6 hours today.
Sunsprite
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06/11/2008 09:14 PM
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Re: High Risk of Tornadoes across the Plains today / tonight
GOD is pissed !!!! Nebraska is being destroyed by tornadoes right now.
Kevin Martin (OP)
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06/11/2008 09:29 PM
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Re: High Risk of Tornadoes across the Plains today / tonight
User ID: 404991

Now you will shut up
Anonymous Coward
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06/11/2008 09:31 PM
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Re: High Risk of Tornadoes across the Plains today / tonight
KCCI is getting early word tonight of a tornado touchdown that hit a Boy Scout camp in western Iowa, injuring as many as 40 people. Our sister station in Omaha, KETV, reports that the Boy Scouts confirm four of those injuries are fatalities.
hail

User ID: 450160
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06/11/2008 09:34 PM
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Re: High Risk of Tornadoes across the Plains today / tonight
The information is dubious at best.

The "predicted" hurricanes in Fla. for June 3-4 never even came close to fruition.

Martin does not know his arse from a hole in the ground. The magic eight ball is as correct as he is.

Another deadbeat wannabe.

Stick to you pyramids scheme.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 404991

i detect a grudge. i'd say you are a haarp shill but you seem to hillbilly for that. i think you just stupid. and mean.
Cunning_linguist

User ID: 450176
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06/11/2008 09:40 PM
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Re: High Risk of Tornadoes across the Plains today / tonight
Kevin, Hope you are well!
Keep on keepin' on.
De Bunker Hiding in a Bunker.
Cunning_linguist

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06/11/2008 09:41 PM
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Re: High Risk of Tornadoes across the Plains today / tonight
Oh' and this is the worst outbreak in 25 years for these areas.
De Bunker Hiding in a Bunker.
BriZzNiTcH

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06/11/2008 09:41 PM
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Re: High Risk of Tornadoes across the Plains today / tonight
i have seen that kevin is right 95% of the time, even when your local weather isn't calling for anything. i experienced this first hand this past weekend in michigan. he called for a tornado, weather channel and local news did not. guess what. funnel cloud right over my house, and an out of no where tornado warning. when it comes to tornadoes, hes right.

so STFU!
"I'm just like you...just not as cool"


fight my brute! [link to brizznitch.mybrute.com]
Kevin Martin (OP)
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06/11/2008 09:58 PM
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Re: High Risk of Tornadoes across the Plains today / tonight
When you have snow in Washington in June it will outbreak the plains a day later. Remember that. That signals cold air to meet the warmer air. Colder air aloft = more unstable.
Tessa
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06/11/2008 10:06 PM
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Re: High Risk of Tornadoes across the Plains today / tonight
once again it's just hot and humid here now...

although we had some divine storms a couple days ago

hf
Kevin Martin (OP)
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06/11/2008 10:06 PM
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Re: High Risk of Tornadoes across the Plains today / tonight
Tornado Prediction Center
Ontario Weather Service
Ontario, California
June 11, 2008 - 7:00pmPDT
CONCERNING THE TORNADO WATCH AREAS

Storms are moving into Central Iowa. These storms will move into the Eastern IA areas and weaken below tornadic limits. Additional tornado watches East of the ones already out will not be needed by TPC.

K. MARTIN
BriZzNiTcH

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06/11/2008 10:14 PM
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Re: High Risk of Tornadoes across the Plains today / tonight
im in the chat at severestudios.net... from what they are saying, this is very very bad.
"I'm just like you...just not as cool"


fight my brute! [link to brizznitch.mybrute.com]
Cunning_linguist

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06/11/2008 10:29 PM
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Re: High Risk of Tornadoes across the Plains today / tonight
35 Tornadoes so far.
De Bunker Hiding in a Bunker.
mopar28m
Rom. 3:31

User ID: 450265
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06/11/2008 10:39 PM

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Re: High Risk of Tornadoes across the Plains today / tonight
Hey Kevin, I'm straight west of Ames about 17 miles. What do you see for Boone?
vaccinefreehealth.spam

vaccinefreehealth@hushmail.com

Racin​g to end vaccinations.
mercury2

User ID: 450224
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06/11/2008 11:10 PM

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Re: High Risk of Tornadoes across the Plains today / tonight
Hey Kevin, I'm straight west of Ames about 17 miles. What do you see for Boone?
 Quoting: mopar28m

Oh mopar I hope you stay safe, Man Iowa's been getting hammered this year!

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