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** BREAKING ** Israel's saber-rattling against Iran could backfire / (Iran could do a preemptive strike)

 
Helmut
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07/02/2008 03:50 AM
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** BREAKING ** Israel's saber-rattling against Iran could backfire / (Iran could do a preemptive strike)
Israel's saber-rattling against Iran could backfire
By Zvi Bar'el, Haaretz Correspondent
Tags: Israel, IDF, Iran, nuclear

The belief that Israel will attack Iran before the year is out, and the major military drill over the Mediterranean last month, may indicate Israel's determination - even if it has to act alone - to defend against the strategic threat Iran has laid at its doorstep.

However this message, along with the threats Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz has made against Iran, must also be analyzed in light of Iran's abilities to respond to such an attack with a preemptive strike against Israel.

For years Israel has warned against Iran's increased ballistic capabilities. Shihab 3 and Shihab 4 missiles were perceived until recently as Iran's clearest strategic menace. A few years ago, General Ahmed Wahid, head of Iran's aircraft industries, said Iran did not view the United States as the target of his country's missiles, but rather Israel.
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In contrast with the more distant nuclear threat, Iran has proven ballistic capabilities to hit strategic and civilian targets in Israel, causing huge casualties and enormous damage. Since the nuclear issue burst into military-diplomatic discourse, it is as if the ballistic
issue has been forgotten. Meanwhile, the single-minded perception that only the West and Israel can attack Iran and that Iran cannot launch a preemptive strike or a powerful response has settled in, at least in public discussions.

If the threat to attack Iran is meant to motivate the Iranian people to pressure their leadership, this goal is still far from attained. Ahmadinejad has a strong opposition in parliament and in some sectors of the public, but at the same time widespread consensus exists that the development of nuclear technology is a worthwhile national task. Thus while there is domestic criticism of failing economic policies, and next year's presidential election campaign has already begun, none of the potential candidates speak of halting nuclear development.

It is believed in Iran that continued threats, not to mention a direct attack, might only strengthen Ahmadinejad as the man who is standing strong against the West and Israel, and increase the feeling that nuclear armament is necessary.

The commander of the Revolutionary Guards Mohammed Ali Jafari warned this week that Iran would respond to an attack by closing the strait of Hormuz, preventing the passage of oil from the Gulf states, which would spike world oil prices.

Israel, which had to extricate itself from accusations that it dragged the U.S. into war in Iraq, will find it difficult to withstand pressure that it, and not Iran, is responsible for another rise in oil prices, perhaps the most dramatic to date, and the subsequent damage to global economy. The hike in oil prices following Mofaz's statements may be proof of this scenario.

Iran's nuclear threat has created an interesting anti-Iranian coalition that includes Arab countries along with the U.S. and Israel. For the first time, Arab statesmen are saying that the Iranian nuclear threat against Arab countries is more concrete than the Israeli threat on them. However, this coalition will have difficulty tolerating an Israeli attack on Iran, especially if such an attack also brings about an Iranian attack on nearby Arab countries.
Anonymous Coward
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07/02/2008 04:56 AM
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Re: ** BREAKING ** Israel's saber-rattling against Iran could backfire / (Iran could do a preemptive strike)
is there a link for this?
The FalseProphet

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07/02/2008 05:00 AM
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Re: ** BREAKING ** Israel's saber-rattling against Iran could backfire / (Iran could do a preemptive strike)
is there a link for this?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 461668

Yes pls give link
Helmut (OP)

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07/02/2008 05:03 AM
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Re: ** BREAKING ** Israel's saber-rattling against Iran could backfire / (Iran could do a preemptive strike)
Sure,
here is the link:
[link to haaretz.com]
Anonymous Coward
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07/02/2008 05:06 AM
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Re: ** BREAKING ** Israel's saber-rattling against Iran could backfire / (Iran could do a preemptive strike)
ok tis the same old crap from iran? they did not directly say shit. They wont do shit either, because they know they will get their assholes pounded into dust.
Anonymous Coward
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07/02/2008 05:07 AM
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Re: ** BREAKING ** Israel's saber-rattling against Iran could backfire / (Iran could do a preemptive strike)
ok tis the same old crap from iran? they did not directly say shit. They wont do shit either, because they know they will get their assholes pounded into dust.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 459548



Before the dust settles more than Iran would suffer, Israel knows it too.
Anonymous Coward
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07/02/2008 05:15 AM
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Re: ** BREAKING ** Israel's saber-rattling against Iran could backfire / (Iran could do a preemptive strike)
yep M.A.D. at worst...
Anonymous Coward
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07/02/2008 05:18 AM
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Re: ** BREAKING ** Israel's saber-rattling against Iran could backfire / (Iran could do a preemptive strike)
haaretz.com

what a joke. they're just lieing israeli warmongering nazi propaganda and nothing more. wake the fuck up people! how can you even think about trusting such propaganda bullshit?!
Anonymous Coward
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07/02/2008 05:30 AM
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Re: ** BREAKING ** Israel's saber-rattling against Iran could backfire / (Iran could do a preemptive strike)
haaretz.com

what a joke. they're just lieing israeli warmongering nazi propaganda and nothing more. wake the fuck up people! how can you even think about trusting such propaganda bullshit?!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 233945

OP is a german. Most Germans are generally a bit fucked in the head concerning the israel topic.
Anonymous Coward
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07/02/2008 06:20 AM
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Re: ** BREAKING ** Israel's saber-rattling against Iran could backfire / (Iran could do a preemptive strike)
Yes. Just pure propaganda but for a moment there I thought WOW What a good idea. beat 'em at their own game eh?

Ah it's all MAD.
Anonymous Coward
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07/02/2008 06:24 AM
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Re: ** BREAKING ** Israel's saber-rattling against Iran could backfire / (Iran could do a preemptive strike)
haaretz.com

what a joke. they're just lieing israeli warmongering nazi propaganda and nothing more. wake the fuck up people! how can you even think about trusting such propaganda bullshit?!

OP is a german. Most Germans are generally a bit fucked in the head concerning the israel topic.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 348107


Sorry your feel that way. Sad to see such easy typecast. And I am of the "SOUP" family.
Isaac Brock died for us

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07/02/2008 06:29 AM
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Re: ** BREAKING ** Israel's saber-rattling against Iran could backfire / (Iran could do a preemptive strike)
haaretz.com

what a joke. they're just lieing israeli warmongering nazi propaganda and nothing more. wake the fuck up people! how can you even think about trusting such propaganda bullshit?!

OP is a german. Most Germans are generally a bit fucked in the head concerning the israel topic.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 348107

Israel bought it's submarines from the Germans. You don't suppose Germany might be able to track those submarines with hidden transmitters?
owner of an extensive collection of curios from the exotic orient
zazzman
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07/02/2008 07:03 AM
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Re: ** BREAKING ** Israel's saber-rattling against Iran could backfire / (Iran could do a preemptive strike)
That would be something. Iran does preemptive strike. 30 minutes later Tehran is turned into a sheet of glass, along with a few other cities.
Anonymous Coward
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07/02/2008 07:09 AM
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Re: ** BREAKING ** Israel's saber-rattling against Iran could backfire / (Iran could do a preemptive strike)
I think getting Iran to attempt a preemptive strike IS the plan - so if it were to happen I don't this it is a backfire - I think its what the US and Israel want.
Skeptic
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07/02/2008 07:09 AM
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Re: ** BREAKING ** Israel's saber-rattling against Iran could backfire / (Iran could do a preemptive strike)
Israel has literally hundreds of nuclear weapons. A first strike by Iran is utterly unthinkable. Even if you believe that Ahmadinejad is insane--which he certainly isn't--the country's guardian is a very sensible ayatollah who has no intention of going down in history as a Hitler or Bush.

Unlike the United States and Israel, Iran actually has a strong moral standard and lives by it. Even the most fanatical Muslims, like Ahmadinejad, take a rather Catholic view of war: They believe that they must stay on the moral high ground if they expect any Divine assistance. Thus, even Ahmadinejad does not believe in a first strike.

However, talk of a first strike in Israeli and American newspapers is almost certainly a preparation for a false-flag attack that will be blamed on Iran.
Anonymous Coward
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07/02/2008 12:43 PM
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Re: ** BREAKING ** Israel's saber-rattling against Iran could backfire / (Iran could do a preemptive strike)
Israel, which had to extricate itself from accusations that it dragged the U.S. into war in Iraq, will find it difficult to withstand pressure that it, and not Iran, is responsible for another rise in oil prices, perhaps the most dramatic to date, and the subsequent damage to global economy. The hike in oil prices following Mofaz's statements may be proof of this scenario.


 Quoting: Helmut



Poor Israel, with all the memos from AIPAC to US lawmakers, instructing them to get tougher and bomb-ier with Iran, they may have to work harder to stop all the bad, anti-semite people accusing them of trying to drag the U.S. into war with Iran than they did with accusations about Iraq.
Anonymous Coward
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07/02/2008 12:47 PM
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Re: ** BREAKING ** Israel's saber-rattling against Iran could backfire / (Iran could do a preemptive strike)
That would be rather stupid of iran.
It needs to play victim and if it gets attacked then it can retaliate and have allies.

God forbid if your talking nuclear weapons tho.
Anonymous Coward
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07/02/2008 12:49 PM
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Re: ** BREAKING ** Israel's saber-rattling against Iran could backfire / (Iran could do a preemptive strike)
If you think about it, the ultimate modern weapon for Iran to research into is missile defence, specifically ICBM defence.

That way it does not even need to use or make nuclear weapons.
satellite busting missiles are also good.
Anonymous Coward
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07/02/2008 12:59 PM
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Re: ** BREAKING ** Israel's saber-rattling against Iran could backfire / (Iran could do a preemptive strike)
Israel would LOVE if Iran attacked first.. it'd make them not look so bad for attacking back.

The U.S. and Israel have been trying to provoke Iran into attacking all along.

It wouldn't be a backfire. It would be part of the plan.
Anonymous Coward
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07/02/2008 01:11 PM
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Re: ** BREAKING ** Israel's saber-rattling against Iran could backfire / (Iran could do a preemptive strike)
Iran will not attack first.

If ISrael attacks the end result is oil will hit at least $250-300 per barrel if not more. Economies will collapse globally.

Israel will have no more friends.

Israel is in the process of hanging itself.

The US will no longer be an ally as the US govt. will not be able to stand internal pressure given oil costs.
Anonymous Coward
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07/02/2008 01:37 PM
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Re: ** BREAKING ** Israel's saber-rattling against Iran could backfire / (Iran could do a preemptive strike)
God forbid if your talking nuclear weapons tho.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 460871

Tard! Read the NIE dircetly from the CIA! 1ran ain't got no nukes and does not develop them! For fucks sake! Get a fucking education!

[link to media.npr.org]

^
NIE pdf document
Anonymous Coward
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07/02/2008 01:47 PM
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Re: ** BREAKING ** Israel's saber-rattling against Iran could backfire / (Iran could do a preemptive strike)
I'm not much for propaganda and hear say but just by looking through mainstream reports alone it seem’s likely there will be a confrontation with Iran in the near future. Pieced together with unverified reports and information it seems that military conflict with Iran is imminent. This is very unsettling to me (obviously to the whole world) because whenever I think of an Iranian conflict, Nostradamus' prediction of a blue turbaned leader setting off WWIII pops into my thoughts every time. Here in the west I would be very vigilant of any curious activity that might seem astray. I am sure Iran has infiltrated and set up small cells that if a conflict should erupt will strike our nation with numerous attacks. May peace be with you all.
Anonymous Coward
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07/02/2008 08:04 PM
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Re: ** BREAKING ** Israel's saber-rattling against Iran could backfire / (Iran could do a preemptive strike)
Interesting? I believe the U.S. corporation will NOT be LEFT standing, if a strike by Israel takes place and Israel knows it!! Not to mention the fact that there will be NO Israel Left ANYWHERE for them to go home too. Just read what is being said, then reread it?
kerry
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07/02/2008 08:18 PM
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Re: ** BREAKING ** Israel's saber-rattling against Iran could backfire / (Iran could do a preemptive strike)
i think i sead this befor.. how do you say his name..
AHEMADINGAjIG ... anyway.... he wants to be attacked.. to show america and isreal attacking a defensless people with only nukes for electricity.. i realy dont think he has nukes.. his people want to die.. but as marters.
so all the east and rissia will turn on isreal and america.. with russia as proof iran hass no nuke bombs
then the alience agenst terror will end with all the arab
and muslem countrys at isreal and america.. this is ahemadingajigs whole plan.. he did try very hard to make us worry by his threts.. then all ofa suden geting nuke things from rissia.. comon now do you realy think russia will give iran stuff tghat will make bombs insted or power..

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