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Catastrophic Hurricane Fay To Stall Over New Orleans, Causing Historic Flooding Event And Levee Breeches!!!

 
hatch battener
User ID: 489087
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08/22/2008 01:28 AM
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Catastrophic Hurricane Fay To Stall Over New Orleans, Causing Historic Flooding Event And Levee Breeches!!!
Mayor Nagin better be getting those evacuation buses ready, because from the latest computer models and forecasts, Fay could soon become a hurricane when it enters the Gulf of Mexico. And it's movement is expected to slow to a near crawl, when some computer models have this drenching storm right over the city of New Orleans.

From the latest computer models, note that several have the center of Fay moving over the Gulf of Mexico, where it is expected to strengthen-

[link to www.wunderground.com]

From the Advisory on Fay issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11pm ET, Thursday-

"Some models such as the ECMWF and HWRF continue to forecast a more southerly track over the northeastern Gulf...The exact track could have a significant impact on how strong Fay is after crossing the northern Florida Peninsula. If the more southerly tracks are correct and Fay spends a good bit of time centered over the northeastern Gulf...it could restrengthen beyond 24 hours...

...most of the guidance shows another slowdown as ridging builds over the Southern Plains and blocks Fay's forward progress again. The new official track shows essentially no motion beyond 72 hours."

[link to www.wunderground.com]

So here's how it's shaping up, about half of the computer models show Fay strengthening as it enters the Gulf, and then right as the deadly storm is over New Orleans, it's expected to stop dead in it's tracks.

Fay has already become one of the heaviest rain producing storms on record, with the National Hurricane Center predicting parts of Florida will get over 30" of rain. Melbourne, Florida already has over 26" of rain in the past two days, the previous record rainfall for the entire month of August combined in Melbourne was 22"!

A few days from now, how much rain could a strengthened Fay stalled over the city of New Orleans dump?

Alot.

And remember, it wasn't so much the winds that did in the New Orleans levees back in 2005, it was the water. Many of the major levee breaks happened after Katrina had moved well inland. And the highest rain total recorded from Katrina in the state of Louisiana was 15".

What would happen to the New Orleans levees if they got 3 feet of rain or more?

That's what Fay is leaving in it's wake in Florida, and the latest computer models have her making a beeline right for New Orleans!

hiding
Anonymous Coward
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08/22/2008 01:47 AM
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Re: Catastrophic Hurricane Fay To Stall Over New Orleans, Causing Historic Flooding Event And Levee Breeches!!!
It was the storm surge, not the rain.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 488953
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08/22/2008 01:50 AM
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Re: Catastrophic Hurricane Fay To Stall Over New Orleans, Causing Historic Flooding Event And Levee Breeches!!!
Why do the hurricane drivers a Haarp want to keep picking on New Orleans?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 488128
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08/22/2008 01:57 AM
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Re: Catastrophic Hurricane Fay To Stall Over New Orleans, Causing Historic Flooding Event And Levee Breeches!!!
it was the levees being blown up not the rain or storm surge.
mathetes

User ID: 327572
United States
08/22/2008 02:12 AM

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Re: Catastrophic Hurricane Fay To Stall Over New Orleans, Causing Historic Flooding Event And Levee Breeches!!!
Mayor Nagin better be getting those evacuation buses ready, because from the latest computer models and forecasts, Fay could soon become a hurricane when it enters the Gulf of Mexico. And it's movement is expected to slow to a near crawl, when some computer models have this drenching storm right over the city of New Orleans.

From the latest computer models, note that several have the center of Fay moving over the Gulf of Mexico, where it is expected to strengthen-

[link to www.wunderground.com]

From the Advisory on Fay issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11pm ET, Thursday-

"Some models such as the ECMWF and HWRF continue to forecast a more southerly track over the northeastern Gulf...The exact track could have a significant impact on how strong Fay is after crossing the northern Florida Peninsula. If the more southerly tracks are correct and Fay spends a good bit of time centered over the northeastern Gulf...it could restrengthen beyond 24 hours...

...most of the guidance shows another slowdown as ridging builds over the Southern Plains and blocks Fay's forward progress again. The new official track shows essentially no motion beyond 72 hours."

[link to www.wunderground.com]

So here's how it's shaping up, about half of the computer models show Fay strengthening as it enters the Gulf, and then right as the deadly storm is over New Orleans, it's expected to stop dead in it's tracks.

Fay has already become one of the heaviest rain producing storms on record, with the National Hurricane Center predicting parts of Florida will get over 30" of rain. Melbourne, Florida already has over 26" of rain in the past two days, the previous record rainfall for the entire month of August combined in Melbourne was 22"!

A few days from now, how much rain could a strengthened Fay stalled over the city of New Orleans dump?

Alot.

And remember, it wasn't so much the winds that did in the New Orleans levees back in 2005, it was the water. Many of the major levee breaks happened after Katrina had moved well inland. And the highest rain total recorded from Katrina in the state of Louisiana was 15".

What would happen to the New Orleans levees if they got 3 feet of rain or more?

That's what Fay is leaving in it's wake in Florida, and the latest computer models have her making a beeline right for New Orleans!

hiding
 Quoting: hatch battener 489087

Great post Op and a great breakdown of the facts
For I would not, brethren, that ye should be ignorant of this mystery, lest ye should be wise in your own conceits; that blindness in part is happened to Israel, until the fulness of the Gentiles be come in.
BUB
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08/22/2008 03:02 AM
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Re: Catastrophic Hurricane Fay To Stall Over New Orleans, Causing Historic Flooding Event And Levee Breeches!!!
i MISS THE EMP!
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 437959
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08/22/2008 03:35 AM
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Re: Catastrophic Hurricane Fay To Stall Over New Orleans, Causing Historic Flooding Event And Levee Breeches!!!
it was the levees being blown up not the rain or storm surge.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 488128


I was watchingthe show weather that changed history and the goverment did actually blow up levees to make the poor neighboorhoods flood instead of the rich neighborhoods and downtown districts where the bussinesses were. I can't remember what year it was. The goverment were suppose to pay the poor people to let this happen. After their homes were destroyed however most people got nothing and the ones that did get something only got about 300.00. So, I think it is not beyond our goverment to do something like this.
ShadowDancer

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08/22/2008 07:37 PM
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Re: Catastrophic Hurricane Fay To Stall Over New Orleans, Causing Historic Flooding Event And Levee Breeches!!!
Why do the hurricane drivers a Haarp want to keep picking on New Orleans?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 488953


Maybe some developers want the very primo land for tourist attractions


As a Veteran officer of 20 yrs from NO told me as I passed through in Jan-they got rid of about 200000-350000 people from the area when Katrina hit



bump seems they are set to dump some more of the common population either into the ocean or into other states...

not looking good for them down there
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Anonymous Coward
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08/22/2008 07:46 PM
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Re: Catastrophic Hurricane Fay To Stall Over New Orleans, Causing Historic Flooding Event And Levee Breeches!!!
bsflag bsflag bsflag bsflag bsflag bsflag bsflag bsflag bsflag bsflag bsflag bsflag bsflag bsflag bsflag bsflag bsflag bsflag bsflag bsflag bsflag bsflag bsflag bsflag
Anonymous Coward
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08/22/2008 07:48 PM
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Re: Catastrophic Hurricane Fay To Stall Over New Orleans, Causing Historic Flooding Event And Levee Breeches!!!
Why do the hurricane drivers a Haarp want to keep picking on New Orleans?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 488953

New Orleans--> african dubya <--Hurricane Driver
Anonymous Coward
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08/22/2008 08:03 PM
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Re: Catastrophic Hurricane Fay To Stall Over New Orleans, Causing Historic Flooding Event And Levee Breeches!!!
Anonymous Coward
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08/22/2008 08:28 PM
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Re: Catastrophic Hurricane Fay To Stall Over New Orleans, Causing Historic Flooding Event And Levee Breeches!!!
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Anonymous Coward
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08/22/2008 08:54 PM
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Re: Catastrophic Hurricane Fay To Stall Over New Orleans, Causing Historic Flooding Event And Levee Breeches!!!
Poster 959 watched the same show I did on weather that changed history" - I taped it because I could not believe what I was hearing after katrina - it's true - (in circa 1929?)the gov blew up the levees to flood the area for some profit (oil? can't remember, but I will rewatch the tape) and puposely promised the poorest people who had to leave their homes that they would be compensated for their loss of thier homes by insurance, but in the end, the insurance companies stiffed them, the Louisianna gov't backed the desicions, and the political dynasty of the (forget their name - but go do a little research - not hard to find) was born. It is openly discussed in this program that the political powers were wanting to cleanse the area of the poor. SICK yes, but I have it on tape.

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