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Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now!
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 428255
8/26/2008 1:29 AM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
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Ice 
User ID: 474255
8/26/2008 5:46 AM
 | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/8...THOUGH GUSTAV MAY RECENTLY BE
MOVING A BIT MORE TO THE RIGHT. THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO NOTE THIS
MORNING IS A DRAMATIC SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT WITH ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE.
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST AWAY FROM GUSTAV...LEAVING RIDGING OVER THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT
THE HURRICANE WILL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR EVEN WEST IN A DAY
OR SO DUE TO THIS BUILDING RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SOUTHWESTWARD BEYOND 24 HR BUT IS STILL ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE FORECAST COULD HAVE BEEN
SHIFTED EVEN MORE TO THE LEFT BUT WE'D PREFER TO WAIT UNTIL THE
GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE STABLE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0900Z 17.2N 71.9W 75 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 18.0N 72.9W 85 KT
24HR VT 27/0600Z 18.8N 74.3W 75 KT
36HR VT 27/1800Z 19.2N 75.6W 80 KT
48HR VT 28/0600Z 19.4N 76.9W 85 KT
72HR VT 29/0600Z 20.0N 79.3W 90 KT
96HR VT 30/0600Z 21.0N 82.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 31/0600Z 23.0N 85.5W 100 KT
Proverbs 1:7 The fear of the LORD is the beginning of knowledge, but fools despise wisdom and discipline. |
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Ice
User ID: 474255
8/26/2008 5:49 AM
| | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
[link to www.wunderground.com]
Proverbs 1:7 The fear of the LORD is the beginning of knowledge, but fools despise wisdom and discipline. |
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Ice
User ID: 474255
8/26/2008 5:53 AM
| | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
GFDI
one of the better models
[link to tropicalatlantic.com]
Proverbs 1:7 The fear of the LORD is the beginning of knowledge, but fools despise wisdom and discipline. |
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Ice
User ID: 474255
8/26/2008 5:58 AM
| | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]
Proverbs 1:7 The fear of the LORD is the beginning of knowledge, but fools despise wisdom and discipline. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 294313
8/26/2008 6:00 AM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
Category 2 in a few hours, and once is past Haiti, out into the Gulf, then its going to explode over the very warm gulf waters. Just watch the spike in oil prices today and tomorrow as the Texas oilfields/refineries are going to be right in the firing line of this puppy next week. I assume category 4 at the very least by Monday next. |
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Ice
User ID: 474255
8/26/2008 6:10 AM
| | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
Category 2 in a few hours, and once is past Haiti, out into the Gulf, then its going to explode over the very warm gulf waters. Just watch the spike in oil prices today and tomorrow as the Texas oilfields/refineries are going to be right in the firing line of this puppy next week. I assume category 4 at the very least by Monday next. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 294313
that's what I was talking about last night
but I will let the storm experts do the talking
I am just posting data!!
This will shut down most rigs for most of next week!
In fact it will start at the end of this week!
ice
Proverbs 1:7 The fear of the LORD is the beginning of knowledge, but fools despise wisdom and discipline. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 294313
8/26/2008 6:13 AM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
Category 2 in a few hours, and once is past Haiti, out into the Gulf, then its going to explode over the very warm gulf waters. Just watch the spike in oil prices today and tomorrow as the Texas oilfields/refineries are going to be right in the firing line of this puppy next week. I assume category 4 at the very least by Monday next.
that's what I was talking about last night
but I will let the storm experts do the talking
I am just posting data!!
This will shut down most rigs for most of next week!
In fact it will start at the end of this week!
ice Quoting: Ice
You are right. And whoever raised the BS flag is wrong, this is a biggie, and a danger to life and property. Current models take it on a west norhwest course, so Texas looks likely to get a hit, but exactly where and when, not determined yet. There is the always the possibility albeit a low one of a more northerly course and bringing Louisiana into the risk zone,but who knows.
Check out wunderground.com for updates |
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Ice
User ID: 474255
8/26/2008 6:20 AM
| | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
[link to www.wunderground.com]
thoughtful
well done post here
high knowledge
good luck to all
Looks like Texas or Louisiana
A early vote I would vote high Texas coast!
ice
Proverbs 1:7 The fear of the LORD is the beginning of knowledge, but fools despise wisdom and discipline. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 294313
8/26/2008 6:23 AM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
[ link to www.wunderground.com]
thoughtful
well done post here
high knowledge
good luck to all
Looks like Texas or Louisiana
A early vote I would vote high Texas coast!
ice
The most important words in that blog/wunderground link are ' as long as Gustav remains over water it will strengthen'. Once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico,its sure has a lot of warm water to energise itself....  |
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Ice
User ID: 474255
8/26/2008 6:27 AM
| | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
Why are you deleting your posts?
cuz he realized he was being an alarmist woo-woo Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1338
sometimes I just don't feel like playing with the kids!!
ice
Proverbs 1:7 The fear of the LORD is the beginning of knowledge, but fools despise wisdom and discipline. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 491237
8/26/2008 6:52 AM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
 |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 491314
8/26/2008 9:53 AM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
[ link to www.wunderground.com]
thoughtful
well done post here
high knowledge
good luck to all
Looks like Texas or Louisiana
A early vote I would vote high Texas coast!
ice
This is gonna be a bad,bad storm ice.
Doesnt matter where it goes,its gonna be a Killer.
Talk of cat 5.
God help the people in Gustavs path. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 487220
8/26/2008 9:57 AM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
GUS will cause MASSIVE DESTRUCTION, if you live near the Coast EVACUATE NOW. You don't want to be caught with your pants down during a Category 3-4 Hurricane !!!! |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 491297
8/26/2008 10:01 AM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
Interesting that the name of this hurricane has the word GUST in it...as in wind gusts...and obviously this one is packing much more wind power than Fay did. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 491314
8/26/2008 10:09 AM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
GUS will cause MASSIVE DESTRUCTION, if you live near the Coast EVACUATE NOW. You don't want to be caught with your pants down during a Category 3-4 Hurricane !!!! Quoting: Anonymous Coward 487220
Yes,
Get your plans together as soon as you can,get a RES. for motel room ahead of time before they fill-up,you can always dump it later if not needed. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 415176
8/26/2008 10:14 AM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
I am out and about
people need to watch this
3 lines of thought
1- it will not move west and go up east coast
2- it will take the NHC track move into central Gulf
3- it will take West track and not enter Gulf
If 2 happens then we need to see if it is Texas or Central Gulf area!
remember NHC is close to 80% with there 5 day cone!!!
ice |
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Ice
User ID: 415176
8/26/2008 10:22 AM
| | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
[link to www.tropicalatlantic.com]
Bamm
GFHI
look rough for New Orleans
Proverbs 1:7 The fear of the LORD is the beginning of knowledge, but fools despise wisdom and discipline. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 18328
8/26/2008 10:41 AM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
Been watching this one myself. It's already got some extraordinary signatures to it and at 80 knots and 981mb in just a day, if it sweeps into the Gulf and heads west, it's going to easily reach Cat 5 status and likely head into LA or TX. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 491314
8/26/2008 10:50 AM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
Been watching this one myself. It's already got some extraordinary signatures to it and at 80 knots and 981mb in just a day, if it sweeps into the Gulf and heads west, it's going to easily reach Cat 5 status and likely head into LA or TX. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 18328
If Gus does hit LA./TX. area at cat 4 what would the winds be like from Dallas/Tyler Tx. area? |
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GraftedPromise U$ofA
User ID: 491315
8/26/2008 10:51 AM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
Whoah! Glad someone asked about the "deleted" posts!
I thought my computer had gone mad!
Interesting ... new moon ... just before the count-down to Tisheri ... and about 7 months before Nisan 2009.
Interesting.
Lamp trimmed and oil of Yeshua in hand! |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 415176
8/26/2008 11:15 AM | |
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 18328
8/26/2008 11:28 AM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
Been watching this one myself. It's already got some extraordinary signatures to it and at 80 knots and 981mb in just a day, if it sweeps into the Gulf and heads west, it's going to easily reach Cat 5 status and likely head into LA or TX.
If Gus does hit LA./TX. area at cat 4 what would the winds be like from Dallas/Tyler Tx. area? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 491314
Remember when Rita rolled through? it wasn't that bad, but still the winds and gusts were pretty awesome. I think if this one tracks NW into the Gulf proper then it may make land fall Beaumont/Port Arthur. Dead center hit on our coast. DFW would definitely see some action from it. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 491354
8/26/2008 11:32 AM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
OIL FUTURES: Nymex Crude Rises $2/Bbl As Hurricane Feared
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Crude oil futures sprang more than $2 early Tuesday on fears a hurricane will hit the Gulf of Mexico's extensive oil infrastructure.
Light, sweet crude for October delivery was recently up $2.46, or 2.1%, at $117.57 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE Futures exchange rose $2.24 to $116.27 a barrel.
A tropical storm churning across the Caribbean escalated into a hurricane overnight. Hurricane Gustav was passing near the Haitian capital of Port-Au-Prince. The National Hurricane Center said most indications are the tempest "will be an extremely dangerous hurricane" and reach the Gulf of Mexico by early Sunday.
Whether Gustav would cause damage to the U.S. Gulf Coast, home to 40% of U.S. refining capacity and a quarter of the nation's crude production, remained a matter of conjecture early Tuesday. So far this year, named storms and hurricanes have not destroyed any key U.S. energy infrastructure.
[link to www.cattlenetwork.com]
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whyidontknow
User ID: 471651
8/26/2008 11:34 AM
 | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
"Everyone in central Gulf needs to get ready for a Cat 3-5 hurricane in the middle of next week! This is not a drill!"
then what is it? a hammer? a chisel? Quoting: Starless (redux)
pick axe |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 314159
8/26/2008 11:45 AM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
Are you joking? The GFDL sucks. Always recurves storms way too much north and east. Horrible bias. It is terrible outside of 48 hours. |
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Doominator
User ID: 162364
8/26/2008 11:49 AM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
Wonder if Kevin's ready to change his Mexico prediction yet?Most of the recent models pinpoint the New Orleans area (again). Oh Noooooooo. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 233945
8/26/2008 11:51 AM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
This should be pinned for some days. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 67658
8/26/2008 11:53 AM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
Gustav - Cat 3 in Southeastern Gulf in 120 hrs! Quoting: Ice
even if not; this thread has a lot of ongoing discussion about gustav with links and stuf. it should be pinned to the top. |
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Doominator
User ID: 162364
8/26/2008 12:01 PM | |
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