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| | Page 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78 | Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now!
| Ice 
User ID: 474255
8/29/2008 5:12 AM
 | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]
west at land fall
Texas needs to worry
seems to be cutting to the west at the coast
Proverbs 1:7 The fear of the LORD is the beginning of knowledge, but fools despise wisdom and discipline. |
| [vishuz]
Ganja smoker :]
User ID: 432360
8/29/2008 5:16 AM
 | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
You should wear white tomorrow :)
LOL Quoting: TEXAS UNCENSORED 492886
Ha, yeah and if he does wear white, check this out: [link to www.wunderground.com]
Thats TS Hanna.. and check out the white computer model. Look @ where it would be heading - back to where Gustav will be soon.
I won't be surprised tomorrow if we have 2 other tropical systems forming into storms.
[link to myspace.com] |
| Ice
User ID: 474255
8/29/2008 5:27 AM
| | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
[link to www.tropicalatlantic.com]
[link to www.esl.lsu.edu]
the good thing is that they don't know where it is going now! the models are running from Mobile to Houstion! the good thing for me it is not showing landing on my head!!!
the bad thing is that until the models line up they will give the best guess they can.
Today they will put a good face on it but they don't know now if it is going to hit Texas , La, Ms, Bama , maybe Fla panhandle!!
3 to 4 days out!!! For those of you up North that is the problem. If you are on the coast do you go through the hassle of leaving only to watch the storm move off and hit Texas and you could have just stayed home!
That is why you see all the last moment moves!!
God Bless all and all be safe!!!
ice
Proverbs 1:7 The fear of the LORD is the beginning of knowledge, but fools despise wisdom and discipline. |
| Ice
User ID: 474255
8/29/2008 5:54 AM
| | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
back in the day all I had was WWL radio out of NO a map and a pin.
I would pin each up date on my map and listen to the weather guys in Baton Rouge and New Orleans.
Now I have just about all they have except a understanding of what I am looking at on the net!!
This is a nice hurricane chart updated for you!
[link to fermi.jhuapl.edu]
[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]
If you look at the NHC 3 day track you can see how good they do by looking at what they say it will do vs what it does!!
I am out an about see you tonight or on Sat morning!!
ice
Proverbs 1:7 The fear of the LORD is the beginning of knowledge, but fools despise wisdom and discipline. |
| 6th Density Saiyan Monkey
User ID: 455445
8/29/2008 6:25 AM
 | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
Starting to here more and more meteorologist state on the TV that this storm is expected to stall or slow down immensely as soon as it reaches the coast.
That would spell a disaster for New Orleans. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 466025
8/29/2008 6:26 AM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
All this rain is going to kill the crops. |
| Ice
User ID: 474255
8/29/2008 6:40 AM
| | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
5 am model page
this is what am talking about
[link to www.skeetobiteweather.com]
Proverbs 1:7 The fear of the LORD is the beginning of knowledge, but fools despise wisdom and discipline. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 113248
8/29/2008 7:56 AM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
Just listened to the local 5:00 a.m. reports.
It's all about timing now.
How fast the storm moves toward land after entering the gulf and there is a high moving south that "could" play a huge role in steering the storm's direction.
There's a good possibility the storm may stall just off Terrebone Parish and then skirt the majority of the La. coastline while headed west.
If it stalls off Terrebone Parish, large amounts of water are expected to be pushed up and into the lower parishes of New Orleans (not the city itself), including Chalmette.
There are several scenarios that could happen.
They just don't know. It's just too early to tell. |
| [vishuz]
Ganja smoker :]
User ID: 432360
8/29/2008 8:09 AM
| | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT GUSTAV HAS AN EXPANDING CLOUD SHIELD AND
IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURES. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE THAT
HAS BEEN SAMPLING THE STORM'S CIRCULATION FOUND THAT THE SIZE OF
GUSTAV HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED. ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE BEEN UNABLE
TO SAMPLE THE CENTER...PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 52 KT WERE
OBSERVED...ALONG WITH SIMILAR VALUES FOR THE SFMR. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 285/7. THERE IS A COMPLICATED
EVOLUTION TO THE STEERING CURRENTS AROUND GUSTAV DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA THAT HAS BEEN
STEERING THE STORM WESTWARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TODAY. THE
BERMUDA HIGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND CAUSE GUSTAV TO MOVE MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND. ONE BIG QUESTION IS THE EVOLUTION OF A MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. SOME OF THE
MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS/GFDL/HWRF...ARE SHOWING THIS LOW CREATING
ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE BERMUDA HIGH TO ALLOW A MOTION MORE
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES CUBA. IT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISING IF THAT TRACK BRIEFLY OCCURRED...BUT IN THE
LONGER-TERM...A HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE
GUSTAV TO GRADUALLY BEND TO THE LEFT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE BEND. THE UKMET AND
GFS HAVE HAD LARGE CHANGES TO THEIR FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUNS...AND GIVEN THE INCREASING MODEL SPREAD...WE'VE OPTED TO KEEP
THE FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. HOPEFULLY A G-IV MISSION
LATER TODAY WILL HELP RESOLVE SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES.
AFTER THE STORM MOVES AWAY FROM JAMAICA...SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
VERY LIGHT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND COMBINED WITH THE
DEEP WARM CARIBBEAN WATERS...COULD PRODUCE A STRONG HURRICANE VERY
QUICKLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW RAPID INTENSIFICATION
BEFORE IT REACHES WESTERN CUBA AND COULD BE CONSERVATIVE AS SOME
MODELS SHOW CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH AT THAT TIME. A LARGE TROUGH
CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THIS TROUGH MAY IMPART SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON GUSTAV
AS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST
SHOWS SOME WEAKENING DUE TO THE SHEAR...GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BE A
LARGE POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/0900Z 18.1N 78.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 18.6N 79.3W 60 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 19.6N 81.0W 75 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 21.0N 82.8W 90 KT
48HR VT 31/0600Z 22.7N 84.6W 100 KT
72HR VT 01/0600Z 26.4N 88.1W 110 KT
96HR VT 02/0600Z 29.0N 91.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 03/0600Z 30.0N 93.0W 85 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
[link to myspace.com] |
| Schmieder
User ID: 324203
8/29/2008 8:22 AM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
posted this at 1pm August 27th, 2008. Gulf hurricanes are easier to predict then open ocean hurricanes. Not saying I am 100% correct, but, I really trust my analysis. Since this was written, the westward track has started. It will appear it will go more west but a coming front will push it more northern, with a curve to the tracking. I am still predicting the landfall parishes mentioned in extreme western Louisiana. God bless all of you.
I had lived on the southern US Atlantic coastline for many years. I kept a good eye on potential and active hurricanes out of interest and concern. I do not have any legal qualifications of weather forecasting however, I have much personal experience in understanding how hurricanes act/react.
Here is my analysis of the situation after staring at weather models, satellite videos and other professional forecasts.
Predicted landfall of Hurricane Gustav's eye:
Cameron Parish to Vermilion Parish, Western Louisiana.
Areas of effect:
Iberia Parish and Saint Mary Parish of Western Louisiana, will also suffer equal or greater conditions during and after landfall of the eye of hurricane Gustav.
Other low lying counties will suffer extensive flooding, especially those under sea level. Wind damage will be greatest within a 30 mile radius of landfall.
Casualties will be exceptionally low. This will be due to the fears among the general population from hurricane Katrina.
State and Local municipalities will be well prepared.
Prediction of hurricane action:
Tropical storm will form into a hurricane upon entering the Gulf of Mexico. It will become Hurricane Gustav Cat 2. The track will appear to be more westward at first. A front from the NW will slow down Gustav and encourage a more northern track. This northern track will have a curvature to it. Once Gustav reaches the center of the Gulf of Mexico, it will rapidly increase in strength to a Cat 5. Shortly before landfall, Hurricane Gustav will go through an Eye wall recycling which will reduce Gustav to a Cat 3 or 4 hurricane. Landfall will have a newly created eye and may have a chance to regain strength. General characteristics will be very large cloud cover, extensive rainfall amounts, moderate to extensive wind damage and push a 12-24 foot surge.
An extreme condition of a Cat 5+, wind speeds of 240+mph with tidal surge of 36-50 feet is not impossible though, unlikely.
Gustav will be a major player in the coming days. Oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico are at great risk of extensive damages. Unfortunately, this could not come at a more worse time. Stress over the Georgian conflict will only add to this potentially catastrophic scenario. Oil prices may hit $190-$225 a barrel. Quoting: Schmieder 324203 |
| Kennedy
User ID: 493212
8/29/2008 8:56 AM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
We are starting to open shelters in Shreveport tomorrow, I think we (Red Cross) will have 5 opening. |
| Doominator
User ID: 162364
8/29/2008 9:13 AM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
I had to drive 150 miles N from Biloxi just to get gas for my generator and vehicles after Katrina. Lines were 4 hours long with a $20 limit within 80 miles of the Gulf Coast. |
| himself
User ID: 493231
8/29/2008 9:42 AM
 | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
GOES shows a NICE dip in the Jet Stream right down INTO the Gulf and back up over Florida.
WHY is this NOT a consideration in blocking AND driving Gustav EAST and into the FL panhandle ?
Is it because the jet stream doesn't drop down that far to affect 'ocean storms ? I have view the results of the Jet Stream dropping SO LOW it flatened trees in forest of Michigan !
Just asking, if anyone knows.
Eagle Quoting: Eagle # 1 216802
Hurricane is a rotating system.
CCW rotation turns outside forces such as wind 90 degrees in the direction of rotation.
Jet stream is exerting a push from the NW gyroscopic effect 90deg CCW turns that into a push to the SW, exactly the change Gustav underwent recently.
Gustav would move to the east if a wind from the south affected it.
Southern hemisphere is CW rotation and just the opposite. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 459297
8/29/2008 9:51 AM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
It's hard that you don't get much notice.
My daughter was in New Orleans for Ivan so I know what its like. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 493257
8/29/2008 10:30 AM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
FROM JAMAICA -EMAILS
Quick news
From: "sue morris" <sue.island at cwjamaica.com>
Date: Fri, 29 Aug 2008 08:12:47 -0500
Real quick from Ochi
DSL is up and down so will try to send this - Rain, rain, rain in Ochi at the moment.
Irie FM are talking about all the Good things that a storm brings and they are great
Trees prune themselves
Phonecard man and likkle shop - "sell off"
Plenty fish to pick up off the roads
more later on those
Ochi at the moment is wet and some winds, ocean has calmed right down, some slight flooding on Main Street and a little debris - I am in contact with emergency personnel who are traversing Milford road and into Fern Gully and Parrytown as we speak, so will update later on that.
Hopefully of the rains ease up we will be okay with mudslides into the town. One of my staff who lives in Brownstown just called to tell me "plenty rain" up there and he can't get out yet.
Our phones lines are out, Flow is out, C&W - DSL is working sporadically, but I think that is the bad phone line connections. We still have the other utility which I am not going to mention as it may jinx it.
Just came on the radio that White River has some flooding due to drain blockages. Looks like we will all be at home for another day.
Cayman - Heads up people - This gentleman is Nasty and he means business. Stay safe and take NO risks.
More later
Sue M
---------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------
- Still wet and tired!!!
From: NegrilTracy at aol.com
Date: Fri, 29 Aug 2008 07:38:31 EDT
Corinne and Ellie: DITTO!!!
We just had to refuel the generator and the tarp blew away earlier so I had a flashlight in my teeth while holding an umbrella in one hand over the tank and the funnel in the other while my husband poured in the driving rain...we got soaked to the bone then laughed till we hurt...LOL!!!
We should all have a drink when this is over...???
One Love,
Tracy
---------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------
It's only a deal if it's where you want to go. Find your travel deal here.
---------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------
- News Release No. 17 TS Gustav
From: cnichols at odpem.org.jm
Date: Fri, 29 Aug 2008 06:29:22 -0500
Please see the attached
(See attached file: Press Release17_Friday August 29, 2008.doc)
Cheryl A. Nichols
Training Manager
ODPEM
12 Camp Road
Tel: 928-5111/4
Fax: 928-5503
Email: cnichols at odpem.org.jm
Attachment: Press Release17_Friday August 29, 2008.doc
Description: MS-Word document
---------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------
- Update
From: Corinne.Smith at digicel.blackberry.com
Date: Fri, 29 Aug 2008 11:08:01 +0000
Still no relief in kingston. Thanks all again for thoughts and prayers. Heavy
rain, winds howling.
Sent from my BlackBerry® device from Digicel
---------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------
- Kingston update 5am
From: "Ellie Grennan" <blacksandsja at yahoo.com>
Date: Fri, 29 Aug 2008 05:09:46 -0600
Heavy Rains and winds lashing Kingston, wind continues to swing westerly w heavy gusts in the 40 mph range, many streets turned into rivers, very few cars visible on the roads, looks like most of the KSA (Kingston St Andrew) flat has power – although ours is out again after coming back for a bit in the night.
One Love
EHG
---------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------
- ODPEM Press Release #16: Bog Walk Gorge Closed As T.S. Gustav Continues to Bring Rain to Jamaica
From: KMorris at odpem.org.jm
Date: Fri, 29 Aug 2008 03:59:21 -0500
Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen:
Please see attached ODPEM Press Release #16 concerning T.S. Gustav's impact on Jamaica thus far:
You can read past Press Releases from the ODPEM National Emergency Operations Centre (NEOC) on T.S. Gustav and Jamaica at [link to www.odpem.org.jm]
With kind regards,
Ms. Kerry-Ann Morris
Information Officer
Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM)
12 Camp Road, Kingston 4, Jamaica
Tel: (876) 928-5111-4 * Fax: (876) 928-5503 * Email: kmorris at odpem.org.jm
"Everytime you smile at someone, it is an action of love, a gift to that person, a beautiful thing." Mother Teresa
If you are receiving this mail in error or you want to remove yourself from future mailings, please to send your request to kmorris at odpem.org.jm with "Removal Request" as the subject.
Attachment: Press Release16_Friday August 29, 2008.doc
Description: Binary data
---------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------
- Kingston update!!!
From: NegrilTracy at aol.com
Date: Fri, 29 Aug 2008 02:54:38 EDT
Title: AOL Email
It has been raining SO hard for hours now and the wind is howling which actually drowns out the generator(even our neighbors said they can't hear it)!!!
Our roof is leaking around the edge seams as well as the door and window frames so we have floods to deal with and all the towels are all over the place but that's all for the moment as far as damages go aside from the tons of wet stuff to deal with when this is over in spite of all our precautions.
When will the rain let up, any ideas?!?!?!
FYI: Flow is down in all respects despite all their reassurances of emergency backups to keep it on in a storm so I am using GPRS on my cellphone to send this but it is SO slow...LOL!!! Our C&W DSL stayed on all through Dean and our old cable provider kept a few channels running as well last summer so I am not impressed but things could be a lot worse.
Stay safe,
Tracy
---------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------
It's only a deal if it's where you want to go. Find your travel deal here.
---------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------
- Montego Bay
From: Patricia Steffan <daventrish1 at hotmail.com>
Date: Fri, 29 Aug 2008 01:43:16 -0400
Well, Gustav is everything they said he was then some. We have had steady rain from 9 pm and the winds are very strong easily 50 to 70 mph. Never get over the creepy sounds at night during a hurricane, I can see the Parish offices are all lit up and people are inside moving about. I am glad we still have power. Look out Caymans!
Dave and Trish
---------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------
Be the filmmaker you always wanted to be—learn how to burn a DVD with Windows®. Make your smash hit
---------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------
- News Release No. 15 - TS Gustav
From: cnichols at odpem.org.jm
Date: Fri, 29 Aug 2008 00:41:04 -0500
Please see the attached
(See attached file: Press Release15_Friday August 29, 2008.doc)
Cheryl A. Nichols
Training Manager
ODPEM
12 Camp Road
Tel: 928-5111/4
Fax: 928-5503
Email: cnichols at odpem.org.jm
Attachment: Press Release15_Friday August 29, 2008.doc
Description: MS-Word document
---------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------
- Enough already!
From: Corinne.Smith at digicel.blackberry.com
Date: Fri, 29 Aug 2008 04:15:24 +0000
Thanks to everyone who has emailed wishes and support. I think its safe to say
that we underestimated this storm. The last 2 hours. Have been rough. Raining
and blowing more than ever right now. Water is coming in in several places
. Looks like a long night ahead.
Sent from my BlackBerry® device from Digicel |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 493257
8/29/2008 10:52 AM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
INTERESTING--MAYBE 4 NAMED STORMS NEXT WEEK--ONLY 2ND TIME IN WEATHER HISTORY RECORDS.LOTS OF DAMAGS AHEAD.
WEATHER CAM LINKS WILL BE BUSY-
With the current forecast calling for Gustav to strike the Louisiana coast west of New Orleans late on Monday, New Orleans will likely be pounded by the storm. Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski says whether the eye of Gustav goes east or west of the city, the canals and levees will be put to the test.
It will be the first for New Orleans' Hurricane Protection System since Hurricane Katrina made landfall to the east of the city on the morning of August 29, 2005. The wind drove the waters of Lake Pontchartrain toward the city, overwhelming the levee and canals.
A memorial service will take place today at 9:38 a.m. CDT, the time of the first levee breach.
Tropical Storm Hanna poses less of an immediate threat to the United States. The storm this morning was located about 245 miles north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph.
Hanna this weekend will become a hurricane as it moves to the northwest. There are two possible scenarios for Hanna next week.
The storm system that today is producing showers and thunderstorms around the eastern Great Lakes could sweep Hanna away to the northeast. If that occurs, Bermuda would be the only land mass impacted by the storm. The current forecast says Hanna will miss that connection, turning to the southwest toward the Bahamas.
In addition to Gustav and Hanna, the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center is currently monitoring two other tropical waves in the eastern Atlantic Ocean for potential development.
There is the possibility that by early next week there could be 4 named tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin. It would be only the second time on record that 4 concurrent storms were active, the last time being 1996. |
| Lemoning
User ID: 493266
8/29/2008 10:53 AM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
An extreme condition of a Cat 5+, wind speeds of 240+mph with tidal surge of 36-50 feet is not impossible though, unlikely. Quoting: Schmieder 324203
No chance in hell of 240+mph winds.
Gustav will be a major player in the coming days. Oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico are at great risk of extensive damages. Unfortunately, this could not come at a more worse time. Stress over the Georgian conflict will only add to this potentially catastrophic scenario. Oil prices may hit $190-$225 a barrel. Quoting: Schmieder 324203
I'm think more like $150, if the Georgia conflict spreads to Ukraine or anywhere, then we may see $200. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 493257
8/29/2008 11:06 AM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
CAYMANS NEXT TARGET--
The sun is shining over Governor’s Harbour this morning with a good breeze and the harbour wit a good chop and whitecaps. The latest Radio Cayman update (you can listen to a live broadcast from their website) has Grand Cayman starting to get rain around mid-morning, tropical storm force winds around 7pm this evening and the worst of the winds (near-hurricane or hurricane force) in the early morning hours Saturday. We always hope the worst of any storm passes in daylight. It doesn’t seem to be the case with Gustav.
A friend just drove over from town and said there were lots of cars on the road but they were all parked! After Ivan everyone learned a hard lesson and now move their car to any high ground to be found anywhere- even on the road way roundabouts.
Predictions are for wave heights of 15-20ft and 13” plus of rain – up to 25” potential. Sounds like parts of Jamaica had lots of flooding problems and even lots roofs etc.
Ok, Later then. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 415176
8/29/2008 11:23 AM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
11am update
At 1100 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Gustav was
located near latitude 18.6 north...longitude 78.8 west or about 165
miles...265 km...east-southeast of Grand Cayman and about 450 miles
...725 km...east-southeast of the western tip of Cuba.
Gustav is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph...13 km/hr. A
turn to the northwest is expected later today...with a continued
northwestward motion on Saturday and Sunday. On this track...the
center of Gustav will pass near or over the Cayman Islands later
today...over the western portions of Cuba on Saturday...and into
the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...100 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Strengthening is likely during the next couple of days...and
Gustav is expected to become a hurricane later today. Gustav could
become a major hurricane before reaching western Cuba.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km
from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb...29.18 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels
can be expected in areas of onshore winds in the Hurricane Warning
areas.
Gustav is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to
12 inches across Jamaica...the Cayman Islands...and western
Cuba...with isolated maximum amounts of up to 25 inches possible.
These rains will likely produce life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides. Rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are possible
over southern Cuba.
Repeating the 1100 am EDT position...18.6 N...78.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...65
mph. Minimum central pressure...988 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500
PM EDT. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 415176
8/29/2008 11:29 AM | | Springsongs
User ID: 226702
8/29/2008 11:52 AM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
Well, folks. Come on up to Colorado. We just hosted 80,000 guests... we probably could manage that for a few more days... |
| Luke@MyNik
User ID: 492823
8/29/2008 11:56 AM
 | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
CAYMANS NEXT TARGET--
The sun is shining over Governor’s Harbour this morning with a good breeze and the harbour wit a good chop and whitecaps. The latest Radio Cayman update (you can listen to a live broadcast from their website) has Grand Cayman starting to get rain around mid-morning, tropical storm force winds around 7pm this evening and the worst of the winds (near-hurricane or hurricane force) in the early morning hours Saturday. We always hope the worst of any storm passes in daylight. It doesn’t seem to be the case with Gustav.
A friend just drove over from town and said there were lots of cars on the road but they were all parked! After Ivan everyone learned a hard lesson and now move their car to any high ground to be found anywhere- even on the road way roundabouts.
Predictions are for wave heights of 15-20ft and 13” plus of rain – up to 25” potential. Sounds like parts of Jamaica had lots of flooding problems and even lots roofs etc.
Ok, Later then. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 493257
lOOKS LIKE U STOLE/CP,d THAT RIGHT OUTTA MY LINK HERE [link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
That links to this chat 2nd post [link to stormcarib.com]
BANNED |
| Afraid of EBEs!
User ID: 384893
8/29/2008 12:10 PM
 | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
Louis Wintorpe III and I are going down to central Louisiana today for my Dad's open heart surgery scheduled for Wednesday AM. My Dad is worried it will be called off due to the hurricane, or that the back up generators would fail if they didn't reschedule it. He needs a quad bypass and the case load is so heavy down there, that is the soonest it could be scheduled! The hospitals are already overwhelmed even before any disasters strike! We are staying with relatives for sure, as every hotel is booked solid!
I've been through more life challenges than most. The best lesson I have learned is to get back up each time I end up on my face. With intelligence and determination, I can overcome any obstacle. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 415176
8/29/2008 12:22 PM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
[link to www.wunderground.com]
shows how the storm looks now
you can see how it is ready to crank up
I would not be surprised to see cat 2 in 24 hrs
as hot as the Gulf is nothing would surprise as how big and strong this storm could get.
cat 4 even 5 but sometimes they just don't blow up
cat 2/3 Louisiana can handle it
cat 4/5 no body can handle
ice |
| Eagle # 1
User ID: 493335
8/29/2008 12:37 PM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
Thanks, himself.
From 'my' prespective, I thought when Gustav crossed Cuba, it would be on the upward ( NE ) side of the the Jet Stream, thus getting a 'hit' from the SW portion of the storm. Also, had a feeling it would stay on a North/NE track anyway. Just one of my premonitions.
Eagle |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 489746
8/29/2008 1:06 PM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
eh-it wont hit till Tuesday-assuming it dont stall which would be VERY VERY bad
yea a cat 3-4 just pounding the same areas for days on end, there would be nothing left afterward. trees can handle a few hours of pounding but not long durations of pounding, same with all stuctures, eventualy they begin to fail under the constant stress. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 484712
yea -> yeah |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 255704
8/29/2008 1:19 PM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
This looks to be really cranking up on the last few sat loops... past Jamaica now. Most of the models have it moving NW generally, which suggests minimal wind shear. That's the type that blow up in the bath tub Gulf to cat4/cat5.
Just be prepared. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 321058
8/29/2008 1:28 PM | | himself
User ID: 493231
8/29/2008 2:02 PM
| | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
Thanks, himself.
From 'my' prespective, I thought when Gustav crossed Cuba, it would be on the upward ( NE ) side of the the Jet Stream, thus getting a 'hit' from the SW portion of the storm. Also, had a feeling it would stay on a North/NE track anyway. Just one of my premonitions.
Eagle Quoting: Eagle # 1 493335
WOW!
Somebody read one of my posts!
Fourth time since I joined this forum.
Rare.
Appreciated.
I don't post to convince..anyone of anything..
Just to inform...whomever cares about facts.
Made my day, Eagle.
Thanks |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 492660
8/29/2008 2:16 PM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 491444 |
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