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| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 482311
8/29/2008 4:42 PM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
it does have a eye.. but it will only be 125mph at it's strongest..
[ link to www.goes.noaa.gov]
that is an estimate and estimates change.
only 125/ wtf are you smoking?
On the internet weather... thats what same information all this group is getting thier info.
go to storm2k site.... |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 492660
8/29/2008 4:43 PM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
125mph winds... landfall with 115... this will not be as dangerous as some think and will not hurt any oil productons at all.. end this stupid thread.
you must not live in area affected by storms.
115 can end your life.
quick.
I know it will.. Im just saying its no katrina and will not do as much damage to the oil either..... Quoting: Anonymous Coward 492552
if it drops 30 inches of rain with 100+mph winds thats is enough damage to me.we will see how big it gets soon enough though. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 492552
8/29/2008 4:45 PM | | JohnnyCarcinogen 
User ID: 486907
8/29/2008 4:45 PM
 | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
125mph winds... landfall with 115... this will not be as dangerous as some think and will not hurt any oil productons at all.. end this stupid thread.
you must not live in area affected by storms.
115 can end your life.
quick. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 482311
Doesn't the flooding cause more deaths than the wind? I was in Hurricane Wilma in 2005. It made landfall in Mexico with 185mph winds and sat there for two days. Deaths were in the single digits. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 493461
8/29/2008 4:46 PM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
I just hope no one tries to ride this hurricane out. If a hurricane is heading your way GET OUT OF THERE EARLY! |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 492660
8/29/2008 4:48 PM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 492552
a cat 3-4 is a dud only if your a nut looking for the apocalypse.and dont post any more bs fox links lol they are just trying not to spook the markets an sheeple. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 482311
8/29/2008 4:50 PM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 492552
get back to me when that info is revised..which it surely will be...go to storm2k site...for real time info and interaction w/ pro meteorologists...not a plug..just a good site to go to when you are in harms way or for weather enthusiasts in general.
I have watched these storms intently as i live in FL and my mom llives on a barrier island in south florida..they are never to be taken lightly and are as capricious as hell.
I took offense to your comment end this stupid thread cause it "only" projected to hit 125 115 landfall...sorry its not a 200 MPH monster that will eradicated every living thing and structure in its path. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 492552
8/29/2008 4:51 PM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
115 mph this is my information..
[ link to media.myfoxtampabay.com]
its a dud
a cat 3-4 is a dud only if your a nut looking for the apocalypse.and dont post any more bs fox links lol they are just trying not to spook the markets an sheeple.
and what if the government has did this to you already? They are coming out already and planning for what it seems the greatest hurricane ever..... So if it ends up not being as bad as they say then the government has made you believe lies already lol.. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 482311
8/29/2008 4:56 PM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
115 mph this is my information..
[ link to media.myfoxtampabay.com]
its a dud
a cat 3-4 is a dud only if your a nut looking for the apocalypse.and dont post any more bs fox links lol they are just trying not to spook the markets an sheeple.
and what if the government has did this to you already? They are coming out already and planning for what it seems the greatest hurricane ever..... So if it ends up not being as bad as they say then the government has made you believe lies already lol..
after the Katrina episode the government will overprepare and I am glad they will. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 492552
8/29/2008 4:58 PM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
115 mph this is my information..
[ link to media.myfoxtampabay.com]
its a dud
a cat 3-4 is a dud only if your a nut looking for the apocalypse.and dont post any more bs fox links lol they are just trying not to spook the markets an sheeple.
and what if the government has did this to you already? They are coming out already and planning for what it seems the greatest hurricane ever..... So if it ends up not being as bad as they say then the government has made you believe lies already lol..
after the Katrina episode the government will overprepare and I am glad they will.
and you think the government didnt know katrina wasnt going to be as bad as it did? Dont make me laugh they knew very well...they didnt care about helping those people. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 493430
8/29/2008 5:01 PM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
anybody think it's gonna head for GEORGIA.... wouldn't that be weird. It's a Russian hurricane... rushing to Georgia USA to retaliate for south ossettia. |
| OneAngryMom
User ID: 300939
8/29/2008 5:03 PM
 | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
storm2K?
dot com?
not trying to be difficult here and don't want to read through23 other pages for the link......but
storm2K dot com is a site for information useful to people who work in, or are interested in the field of Surgical Technology.
what am I missing? |
| Luke@MyNik
User ID: 492823
8/29/2008 5:15 PM
 | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
It will hit around tampa florida
If not there it will hit florida somewhere but not n.o.
BANNED |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 255704
8/29/2008 5:36 PM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
{jimmy stewart voice ON}-- "this thing looks like it's going to be a real humdinger" --{jimmy stewart voice OFF} |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 106290
8/29/2008 5:36 PM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
storm2K?
dot com?
not trying to be difficult here and don't want to read through23 other pages for the link......but
storm2K dot com is a site for information useful to people who work in, or are interested in the field of Surgical Technology.
what am I missing? Quoting: OneAngryMom
I believe it's dot org. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 470629
8/29/2008 5:42 PM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
It will hit around tampa florida
If not there it will hit florida somewhere but not n.o. Quoting: Luke@MyNik
 |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 470629
8/29/2008 5:47 PM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
Tropical storm force winds extend 160 miles...now closing in on the 230 miles of Katrina.  |
| Ice
User ID: 474255
8/29/2008 5:56 PM
 | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]
update
I would expect to see cat 3/4 before landfall
no one wants to say cat 5 but when a storm this time of the year hits hot water and has time you often see cat 5
Camille took this track and hit high cat 5 in 69 !!!
we shall see
still hoping for a turn
ice
Proverbs 1:7 The fear of the LORD is the beginning of knowledge, but fools despise wisdom and discipline. |
| Ice
User ID: 474255
8/29/2008 5:59 PM
| | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
[link to fermi.jhuapl.edu]
this is where the storm is right now!!!
Proverbs 1:7 The fear of the LORD is the beginning of knowledge, but fools despise wisdom and discipline. |
| [vishuz]
Ganja smoker :]
User ID: 432360
8/29/2008 5:59 PM
 | | anonymous
User ID: 493497
8/29/2008 6:01 PM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
seniors who need walkers will not be given special assistance to evacuate ...this included stroke disabled with walkers.COPD HEART FAIURE CITIZNS ALSO...........GET OUT HOWEVER YOU CAN TO LOADING AREAS..PUT YOUR LUGGAGE ON YOUR WALKERS ..AND WALK TO BUS STOPS AND WAIT IN HOT SUN...TIL A BUS MIGHT COME BY..USUAL ROUTES However ARE INTERUPTED..seniors are confused.many will stay home again......it will be too complicated to get to pick up sites..while pushing walkers with luggage to maybe bus sites...yep it too call new orleans emergency evacuation number and this is what info you get...........New Orleans is in a mess aleady..traffic everywhere.. |
| Ice
User ID: 474255
8/29/2008 6:01 PM
| | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
...Gustav becomes a hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean...
at 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...a tropical storm watch is issued for the
lower Florida Keys from west of the Seven Mile Bridge westward to
Dry Tortugas. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36
hours.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cayman Islands...and
for the western Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud...Pinar del
Rio...la Habana...and Ciudad de la Habana.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Jamaica...and for the
central Cuban provinces of Matanzas...Cienfuegos...Villa
Clara...Sancti Spiritus...Ciego de Avila...Camaguey...and Granma.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
At 500 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Gustav was located
near latitude 19.2 north...longitude 79.7 west or about 100 miles...
160 km...east of Grand Cayman and about 380 miles...610 km...
east-southeast of the western tip of Cuba.
Gustav is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph...19 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple
of days. On this track...the center of Gustav will pass near or
over the Cayman Islands tonight...over the western portions of Cuba
on Saturday...and into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday
night or Sunday.
Data from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 75 mph...120 km/hr...with higher gusts.
Gustav is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days...and
Gustav could become a major hurricane near the time it crosses
western Cuba.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles...45 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160
miles...260 km.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 980 mb...28.94 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 2 to 5 feet above normal tide levels
is possible in the Cayman Islands...with 8 to 13 feet possible near
where the center of Gustav crosses western Cuba...including Isla de
Juventud.
Gustav is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to
12 inches across Jamaica...the Cayman Islands...and western
Cuba...with isolated maximum amounts of up to 25 inches possible.
These rains will likely produce life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides. Rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are possible
over southern Cuba.
Repeating the 500 PM EDT position...19.2 N...79.7 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...75 mph.
Minimum central pressure...980 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Knabb
Proverbs 1:7 The fear of the LORD is the beginning of knowledge, but fools despise wisdom and discipline. |
| Ice
User ID: 474255
8/29/2008 6:08 PM
| | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
vis
I don't know you and we have never chatted!!
but thanks for your help in getting the info out!!!
ice
Proverbs 1:7 The fear of the LORD is the beginning of knowledge, but fools despise wisdom and discipline. |
| Ice
User ID: 474255
8/29/2008 6:18 PM
| | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
this is good info!!
ice
[link to www.wunderground.com]
It's time to leave New Orleans
Today is the 3rd anniversary of Hurricane Katrina's catastrophic hit on the Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama coast. Unfortunately, I think that people living in New Orleans should mark the anniversary of Katrina by getting the heck out of the city. You live at the bottom of a bowl, ten or so feet below sea level. This is not natural. Nature wants to fill up this bowl with huge quantities of Gulf of Mexico sea water. There is a storm capable of doing that bearing down on you. If you live in New Orleans, I suggest you take a little Labor Day holiday--sooner, rather than later, to beat the rush--and get out of town. Gustav is going to come close to you, and there's no sense messing with a major hurricane capable of pushing a Category 3 storm surge to your doorstep. Don't test those Category 3 rated--but untested--levees. Conventional pre-Katrina wisdom suggested that the city needed 72 hours to evacuate. With the population about half of the pre-Katrina population, that lead time is about 60 hours. With Gustav likely to bring tropical storm force winds to the city by Monday afternoon, that means that tonight is a good time to start evacuating--Saturday morning at the latest. Voluntary evacuations have already begun, which is a good idea.
The latest computer models
After analyzing the latest 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs, I don't think Gustav is going to bring hurricane force winds to New Orleans, and I estimate there is 10% chance Gustav will bring a Category 3-level storm surge to the city. However, if I lived in the city, I'd get out tonight, because the storm is going to be plenty mean and is going to come uncomfortably close to you. A 10% chance is a big chance when it's your life.
The models continue to fall into two camps: models that foresee a track over Louisiana, making landfall Monday night or Tuesday morning (the GFS and GFDL models), and the models that bring Gustav very close to the Louisiana coast on Monday, then turn the storm westward towards Texas. The HWRF model, which was in the former camp, has now gone over to the westward-turn-to-Texas camp. The general trend of most of the models has been to build a stronger ridge of high pressure over the southern U.S. on Monday and Tuesday, and I forecast that Gustav will come very close to the Louisiana coast on Monday as a Category 3 hurricane, stall, then move westwards towards Texas. This is the solution of the latest HWRF model.
Specifically, the GFDL model continues to be a day faster than the other models, and brings Gustav over New Orleans on Monday morning as a Category 3 hurricane. It is the furthest east model. The GFS predicts a western Louisiana landfall Tuesday morning, with Gustav stalling inland. The ECMWF predicts a landfall near the TX/LA border Monday night. The NOGAPS targets Galveston on Tuesday afternoon, and the UKMET targets Galveston on Wednesday. The HWRF does not bring Gustav to a landfall by the end of its forecast cycle (5.25 days). It predicts a Category 3 hurricane 100 miles south of the central Louisiana coast on Monday morning, that stalls and wanders west, weakening to a Category 1 hurricane.
The intensity forecast for Gustav
Gustav has low wind shear (less than 10 knots), is under an upper-level anticyclone that aids intensification, is over the highest heat content waters of the Atlantic, and has no land masses or dry air to interfere with it between now and landfall in Cuba. I expect Gustav will intensify into a Category 3 or 4 hurricane before hitting Cuba. These favorable conditions will continue once Gustav enters the Gulf of Mexico. However, on Monday afternoon, when Gustav will be nearing the Gulf Coast, the SHIPS intensity model is predicting wind shear will increase to 15-20 knots. This may act to weaken Gustav, as predicted by the HWRF model. If Gustav stalls near the coast, as I am expecting, this will churn up cold water from the depths that may also act to weaken the storm.
Yesterday, a NOAA Hurricane Hunter research aircraft dropped a network of 60 specialized buoys (Air eXpendable BathyThermographs, or AXBTs) in the Gulf of Mexico to provide precise measurements of ocean temperatures in order to aid intensification forecasts for Gustav. This data has not yet been assimilated into the GFDL and HWRF computer models, I am told, since the procedure has not yet been automated. The data must be entered manually by NHC staff into the models. Presumably, NHC has their hands full with Hanna and Gustav, so it is not certain this data will be used for real forecasts of Gustav. However, I'm told by Morris Bender of the GFDL lab that this year's intensity forecasts for hurricanes in the Gulf should be much better than in years past. To quote:
The detailed structure of the warm core ring and the Loop Current is getting assimilated into the initial ocean structure for BOTH GFDL and HWRF. There was a major advancement in this technique that became operational this season.
How big will Gustav get?
Gustav is currently expanding significantly in size, and will be a medium to large sized hurricane the remainder of its life. But will it rival Katrina in size, bringing an enormous Katrina-like storm surge to the coast? Well, our ability to predict size changes in hurricanes is poor. We do know that as storms move further from the Equator, they grow in size. This is because the Coriolis force increases as you move away from the Equator. An increased Coriolis force provides more spin to the storm, and the hurricane responds by growing in size. Thus, expect Gustav to grow in size as it approaches landfall along the Gulf coast. Hurricanes also tend to grow in size as they intensify. These two factors are taken into account when NHC makes a wind radius forecast (Figure 2). NHC is forecasting that Gustav's diameter of tropical storm force winds will increase from 210 miles (estimated at 11 am today) to 310 miles by 8 am EDT Monday, just before landfall. This is about 70% as wide as the 440 mile-wide region of tropical storm force winds Hurricane Katrina had at landfall (5 am August 29, 2005). We really don't understand why Katrina got so huge, though an interesting theory was provided by Pat Fitzpatrick of Mississippi State University at a recent hurricane conference. Here's the technical gist:
Katrina nearly doubled in size on 27 August, and by the end of that day tropical storm-force winds extended up to about 140 n mi from the center. A cursory examination of satellite imagery shows the possible influence of a trough or confluence zone to the north that may have contributed angular momentum to the intensifying cyclone.
Although the rapid intensification of Katrina was noteworthy, the expansion of the tropical storm-force winds is the key forecast issue. The devastation wrought by this storm upon landfall is attributable more to its size rather than its intensity, as it landed as a Category 3 hurricane. This large hurricane caused a record storm surge and exposed the coastal regions of Louisiana and Mississippi to hurricane-force winds for an extensive period of time.
Observations, as well as a Weather Research Forecast model simulation, suggest that an influx of vorticity associated with a remnant front near north Florida contributed to the wind field expansion.
Basically, Dr. Fitzpatrick is saying that satellite observations and computer modeling studies suggest that Katrina got extra spin that helped it grow in size by ingesting a portion of an old front that had stalled out over northern Florida. As Gustav approaches the U.S., we should be on the lookout for similar clumps of clouds with some extra spin that the hurricane could use to help grow in size.
Our interactive Wundermap is a good way to study the predicted size changes of a hurricane. Click on the "Hurricane" layer, then check the "Wind Radius" box to see the predicted extent of hurricane force (65 kt), storm force (50 kt) and tropical storm force (34 kt) winds, for the four quadrants of the storm.
Figure 2. Extent of hurricane force (65 kt, yellow), storm force (50 kt, yellow-green) and tropical storm force (34 kt, green) winds, for the four quadrants of Gustav, as predicted by the National Hurricane Center at 11 am EDT August 29, 2008. Gustav's tropical storm-force winds are predicted to have a diameter of 270 nm (310 miles) when it approaches the coast of Louisiana. For comparison, Hurricane Katrina had a 380 nm (440 mile) diameter region of tropical storm force winds at landfall. Thus, Gustav's wind field is predicted to be 70% as large as Katrina's. Image is from our interactive Wundermap. Hurricane force winds are not included in the final two forecast points, because NHC did not make a forecast of these winds for those times.
Links to follow
Wundermap for the Cayman Islands
Pilon, Cuba radar
Cayman Brac, Cayman Islands
Grand Cayman
Hanna and the rest of the tropics
Not much has changed in my thinking on Hanna and the rest of the tropics, which I presented in this monrining's blog. The new set of model runs for Hanna continue to give a wide range of solutions for where the storm might go, with a track over Cuba into the western Caribbean, through the Keys into the Gulf of Mexico, and into the east coast of Florida all possibilities. I'll discuss Hanna more in my next blog, which will be Saturday morning
Proverbs 1:7 The fear of the LORD is the beginning of knowledge, but fools despise wisdom and discipline. |
| Ice
User ID: 474255
8/29/2008 6:23 PM
| | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
[link to markalot.org]
could someone post if you can open this site
it takes a add on and I am not sure most can get it!!
if not I will stop posting it!
it is a great site once you got it loaded right!
ice
Proverbs 1:7 The fear of the LORD is the beginning of knowledge, but fools despise wisdom and discipline. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 459297
8/29/2008 6:30 PM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
I don't think it works on a mac ... just windows. |
| Ice
User ID: 474255
8/29/2008 6:32 PM
| | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
last major model run
[link to www.skeetobiteweather.com]
that is all until next update
ice
Proverbs 1:7 The fear of the LORD is the beginning of knowledge, but fools despise wisdom and discipline. |
| Ice
User ID: 474255
8/29/2008 6:37 PM
| | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
[link to www.cira.colostate.edu]
wow
if you live in Louisiana this will scare you!!
click on storm on bottom left!
oh me
ice
Proverbs 1:7 The fear of the LORD is the beginning of knowledge, but fools despise wisdom and discipline. |
| Doominator
User ID: 162364
8/29/2008 6:50 PM | | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
Onlt 70% of Katrina's size? That's pretty damn big/serious if you ask a Katrina survivor (me). |
| Ice
User ID: 474255
8/29/2008 6:52 PM
| | Re: Gustav - Cat 3 in Gulf now! | Quote |
Onlt 70% of Katrina's size? That's pretty damn big/serious if you ask a Katrina survivor (me). Quoting: Doominator 162364
me to Doominator
I was in the city weeks afterward!!
no one knows unless you had to live through it!!
lake view!!
ice
Proverbs 1:7 The fear of the LORD is the beginning of knowledge, but fools despise wisdom and discipline. |
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