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| TEXAS UNCENSORED
User ID: 499173
9/8/2008 2:43 AM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
I've seen one that gives it a wild sharp north turn at LA into NO. But I don't give that much credence. The storm's movement has been pretty steady. AFter it comes off of Cuba, we'll have a much better idea of direction and landfall probabilities.
If it hits the upper Texas coast, lower LA will probably see some of the weather, but not the worst.
Here's the latest NOAA sat loop. It's a bad one. And it's a beauty, from a distance.
[link to www.goes.noaa.gov] |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 499241
9/8/2008 2:46 AM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc_tracks/html/index.html |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 495549
9/8/2008 2:56 AM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
last heard from Cuba tv, still 170kph bearing down on Cienfuegos. eye still off the coast, but if it doesnt trun northward it's going inland |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 499397
9/8/2008 3:22 AM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
The Wunderground tracking map at 2 a.m. doesn't show Houston/Galveston area getting a direct blow. Other tracking maps have Ike all over the place:
[link to www.crownweather.com]
. |
| TX PATRIOT
User ID: 440969
9/8/2008 4:20 AM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
The Wunderground tracking map at 2 a.m. doesn't show Houston/Galveston area getting a direct blow. Other tracking maps have Ike all over the place:
[ link to www.crownweather.com]
.
Galveston-Houston 5-day track here as a direct hit:
[link to www.wunderground.com]
and here:
[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]
Although, computer models have changed the path to Lou or the lower TX Gulf coast.
[link to www.wunderground.com]
However, we all know that once a hurricane enters the Gulf, it is a crap shoot as to where she will land.
TXU, primary res is about as central ETX as it gets (although, I was a little more north during Gustav, which really ended up being a non-event for us...not even enough rain to give the lawn a good drink).
Having been through several canes while living in Hou, my primary concern is the rising water. If it comes in direct with higher than comfortable winds, we have an extra bedroom if needed. My father who lives East side Hou will be in the the other. =)
. |
| Kevin_Martin
User ID: 496821
9/8/2008 4:22 AM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Tropical Weather Service
Tropical-Scale-Discussion
Ontario, California
September 8, 2008– 1:00am PDT
CURRENT - OFFICIAL
Ike is moving West and currently crossing Cuba. I expect Ike to continue on a Westward path and arrive in Southern parts of the Country. I do not expect a WNW turn till about Western Cuba. This track has been consistent for 4-5 days now on my tracking map and there is no reason this will change. I do think Ike will be into the Gulf Of Mexico. My tracking map still shows this system entering through the Western Cuba vicinity. A ridge will form over Texas, and another will be East of Florida. This will be an interesting and yet very deadly scenario. I think Ike will bomb into a Category Five Hurricane in the Middle of the Gulf Of Mexico. Ike will drift very slowly to the West-Northwest as it continues to gain strength. Eventually Ike will stall South of Louisiana, squeezed by two ridges. This was shown yesterday as well on our tracking map. This is a very dangerous scenario because Ike can still develop further into what I would call a Hyper-Cane. What is going to need to be sorted out is how long this drift and stall will be.
This will determine the exact landfall Ike will make and when. Yesterday we pointed Houston, TX. We also said from Houston, TX to the Florida Panhandle will be the danger zone and did not discount any between those points. The uncertainty areas are still from Houston, TX to the Eastern Florida Panhandle. Somewhere there is where Ike should make the landfall point.
Because Ike may stall between the ridges later than expected, a trough will meet up with it, carrying it into Extreme Southeastern Louisiana, and impacting the Florida Panhandle.
Scenario 1 - Ike will not stall as long and be able to drift into Houston, TX.
Scenario 2 - Ike will stall for longer than expected yesterday, or today's current outlook and be picked up by a trough that would have pulled it North after hitting Houston, TX. This would drive Ike into the Florida Panhandle after crossing Extreme Southeastern Louisiana.
As you can see, the scenarios can be played out. I explained how and what clues I will look for down the line to better predict the landfall point. This will not be known for quite sometime if Ike stalls South of Louisiana.
All areas from Houston, TX to the Florida Panhandle are at risk right now.
Saturday we projected the Florida Panhandle.
Sunday we projected Houston, TX.
Today we are projecting the Florida Panhandle.
That's 2 for 1. We will tally these up daily and get an agreement eventually.
More updates are sure to come from this.
Confidence in Ike crossing Western Cuba - High
Confidence in Ike crossing the Central Gulf Of Mexico as a Major Hurricane - High
Confidence in Ike stalling in the Gulf Of Mexico - Medium - High
Confidence exists on a medium level from FL Panhandle to TX Coastline.
K. MARTIN |
| TEXAS UNCENSORED
User ID: 499173
9/8/2008 4:34 AM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
TEX P, that's sweet of you. Thanks for the offer.
Not to worry though. My s.o. has relatives north of here about 40 miles if we feel the need to boogie on down the road. Room for the dog and cat too.
We don't flood in this part of the westside. Addicks dam and reservoir across Hwy 6, a block away, & good drainage a few hundred feet east. And, we're second floor.
That, thanks to my slight paranoia about rising water.
Are you going to come in if your Dad needs to evac ? That side of town floods most easily. If he is anywhere near the Old Lost River/Trinity, it could get rough.
Carla drove storm surge in over I-10 at that spot. |
| TX PATRIOT
User ID: 440969
9/8/2008 5:09 AM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
TEX P, that's sweet of you. Thanks for the offer.
Not to worry though. My s.o. has relatives north of here about 40 miles if we feel the need to boogie on down the road. Room for the dog and cat too.
We don't flood in this part of the westside. Addicks dam and reservoir across Hwy 6, a block away, & good drainage a few hundred feet east. And, we're second floor.
That, thanks to my slight paranoia about rising water.
Are you going to come in if your Dad needs to evac ? That side of town floods most easily. If he is anywhere near the Old Lost River/Trinity, it could get rough.
Carla drove storm surge in over I-10 at that spot. Quoting: TEXAS UNCENSORED 499173
Well, the offer stands if needed...and we are pet friendly, too. Although, the dog and the raccoons might be an interesting mix. lol
More accurately, Dad lives in Eastend rather than East Hou and right on Simms Bayou (I think it is Simms). He lives in a house my grandparents built in the 20s, and although that area always takes on a lot of rain and is now mapped as a flood plain, since the house was built waters have never come up the drive. Well positioned I suppose.
No, he is a capable and an extremely independent soul even at his age. He would laugh at me if I even hinted at coming down to "help him" evacuate. But first he would wonder if I had lost my mind. He will get quite a kick when I share with him someone asked me that question.
Thanks for your update, Kevin.
. |
| Ice 
User ID: 474255
9/8/2008 6:21 AM
 | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Kevin your last post was excellent!
thanks
[link to www.wunderground.com]
these models show what Kevin is talking about!!
puts Louisiana back into the door!
ice
Proverbs 1:7 The fear of the LORD is the beginning of knowledge, but fools despise wisdom and discipline. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 497823
9/8/2008 7:32 AM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Kind of weird but you could use software to slow down the progress.
[link to www.aliix.com]
What do you think? |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 495349
9/8/2008 7:54 AM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Kind of weird but you could use software to slow down the progress.
[ link to www.aliix.com]
What do you think?
I think i smell SPAM
"But Why Take Our Word For It?
chakra opening ALIIX is free to use for 15 days." |
| Carla
User ID: 499480
9/8/2008 8:09 AM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Thanx, Kevin
To always giving us a heads up, you are awesome! Gotta get to work...in S. Texas |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 255704
9/8/2008 8:34 AM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Kevin, you were right about Ike crossing Cuba to emerge back over open waters... it seems to be nearly on the south Cuban coast now. Some of the models seem to be concurring with that scenario now. Of course over warm water, this won't weaken much more, and should strengthen.
Good call! |
| Dean Martin
User ID: 422855
9/8/2008 9:16 AM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Re: Ike
The global models all show a hurricane taking up nearly the entire Gulf of Mexico. 
The Doors - Riders on the Storm
[link to www.youtube.com] |
| Kevin_Martin
User ID: 496821
9/8/2008 9:21 AM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Thanks! It is almost all the way across Cuba now. My new track is the same in the medium range all the way up to the Central Gulf. Consistent and it should follow that path. It's West of where NHC has it through Cuba. |
| Dean Martin
User ID: 422855
9/8/2008 9:26 AM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Thanks! It is almost all the way across Cuba now. My new track is the same in the medium range all the way up to the Central Gulf. Consistent and it should follow that path. It's West of where NHC has it through Cuba. Quoting: Kevin_Martin
Due to the lack of land interaction Ike will expand its size and will likely grow to an extremely large hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.
I'm looking for Ike to morph into a Category 4 super beast which will annihilate New Orleans.
Creedence Clearwater Revival - Born On The Bayou
[link to www.youtube.com] |
| John Martin
User ID: 467683
9/8/2008 9:46 AM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Sure looks like this one will be huge....This thing might kill thousands in Cuba.. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 499531
9/8/2008 10:12 AM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
KEVIN--DID YOU KNOW THAT YOUR "Chemtrail" page is on Rense
 |
| Kevin_Martin
User ID: 496821
9/8/2008 10:18 AM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
No. Is that good? |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 499537
9/8/2008 10:21 AM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
KEVIN--DID YOU KNOW THAT YOUR "Chemtrail" page is on Rense
 |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 499531
9/8/2008 10:44 AM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
You are probably getting a bunch of hits to your site.
These are the latest headlines on Rwense--they will stay there -they never go away--but finally into his archives.
US To Establish Naval Base In Georgia
CERN Fires Up Atom-Smasher Wednesday
'60 Minutes' Cut Ahmadinejad's Statement
Obama Losing Support Among Evangelicals
Maureen Dowd - Clash Of The Titans
Zionist Biden Opposes US Energy Independence
World's Tallest Building Keeps Growing - Vid
""""""SoCal Meteorologist 1st To Report Chemtrail Spraying""""........THATS YOU SAYS YOUR THE FIRST-CANT HURT.
Fannie, Freddie Shares Likely To Take Further Hits
Iran To Hold 3 Days Of War Games Over Israeli Threat |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 415176
9/8/2008 11:15 AM | | Anonymous Coward
User ID: 366726
9/8/2008 11:34 AM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Thanks for the Update Kevin. |
| JezåBella
The Jezz of Bell
User ID: 456868
9/8/2008 11:42 AM
 | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
hmm........assuming it does not dicipate anythime after it hits florida....Houston ...we may have a problem. 
nice- model shows it doom for Galveston......sweeeet jezuz!
"I can't spell it out for you--
no, it's never gonna be that simple....besides I caint spell" |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 18328
9/8/2008 11:46 AM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Looks like we're going to catch a little storm here in Texas, huh? |
| JezåBella
The Jezz of Bell
User ID: 456868
9/8/2008 11:48 AM
| | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Looks like we're going to catch a little storm here in Texas, huh? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 18328
Indeed I picked a great time to move to the country and get out of stinkydena! Unfortunate for me ......right by the
San Jac river........ 
"I can't spell it out for you--
no, it's never gonna be that simple....besides I caint spell" |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 498814
9/8/2008 11:55 AM | | Anonymous Coward
User ID: 498814
9/8/2008 12:02 PM | | Dean Martin
User ID: 422855
9/8/2008 12:05 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Thanks! It is almost all the way across Cuba now. My new track is the same in the medium range all the way up to the Central Gulf. Consistent and it should follow that path. It's West of where NHC has it through Cuba.
Due to the lack of land interaction Ike will expand its size and will likely grow to an extremely large hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.
I'm looking for Ike to morph into a Category 4 super beast which will annihilate New Orleans.
Creedence Clearwater Revival - Born On The Bayou
[ link to www.youtube.com]
Intensity forecast could go up by 4:00 PM to show a Cat 4 in the GOM.
Wind field expanding and expecting an extremely large hurricane. Possibly on the scale of Katrina or Carla. TS force winds up to 250 miles, hurricane force winds 60 miles.
Trigger time for the public...Wednesday. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 426194
9/8/2008 12:06 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Yep. Looks like a hurrication for me this weekend.
Will keep an eye on it and probably head west around Friday morning. |
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