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| Kevin_Martin
User ID: 496821
9/5/2008 4:49 AM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Tropical Weather Service
Tropical-Scale-Discussion
Ontario, California
September 5, 2008– 1:30am PDT
CURRENT - OFFICIAL
Going to keep Tropical Storm Hanna as a Tropical Storm at landfall and a final landfall near or at North Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. This storm is expected to cause heavy rainfall and gusty winds. A strong storm surge is not anticipated.
Ike is the main story now. Did some plotting against the models and came out with interesting results. Ike is still far away from any major land areas, however it is a Category 4 right now. I expect this to weaken down to a Category 3 over the next 24-36 hours. After this it should stop the West movement and go West-Southwest. Am thinking that it will intensify to a Category 4 sometime on Sunday as it maintains a West-Southwest motion straight for Cuba. The intensity may very well intensify so much on Sunday - Monday that it could reach Category 5 Status then. It would still be heading West-Southwest toward Cuba. It will plow through the Turks and Caicos Islands as a Category 5 hurricane sometime Early Monday, and Cuba Late Monday into Tuesday as a Category 4 or 5.
This is where it gets interesting. Most global models want to take Ike into Florida as a Category 4 or 5 Hurricane. Mine wants to develop a ridge over Florida, and guide Ike through Cuba, actually making it on the other side, missing Jamaica to the Northwest and continuing West again toward the Yucatan. It then curves back to the Northwest near the Yucatan / Cuba Channel on the latest part of my plot. This is interesting and it should be watched over the days for a possible scenario such as that. It would save Florida from that direct hit.
If it does not follow this, and a ridge fails to move over Florida at the crucial time, Ike will be taken into Miami and Cape Canaveral, FL as a Category 4 or 5 Hurricane. The split point is indeed Northeast Cuba. This is when Ike will decide which way to go. It's where NHC, the global models, and others disagree with my plot. They go into Florida. I want to take Ike straight through Cuba, not a glancing blow...Time will tell...
If you live in Florida, listen to your local media and prepare if needed. Ike is still days out and conditions can rapidly change the track at anytime.
K. MARTIN |
| dick nixon
User ID: 493999
9/5/2008 7:24 AM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
I thought IKE DIED sometime in the late 60's......get with the program, dude |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 422855
9/5/2008 8:04 AM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Tropical Weather Service
Tropical-Scale-Discussion
Ontario, California
September 5, 2008– 1:30am PDT
CURRENT - OFFICIAL
Going to keep Tropical Storm Hanna as a Tropical Storm at landfall and a final landfall near or at North Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. This storm is expected to cause heavy rainfall and gusty winds. A strong storm surge is not anticipated.
Ike is the main story now. Did some plotting against the models and came out with interesting results. Ike is still far away from any major land areas, however it is a Category 4 right now. I expect this to weaken down to a Category 3 over the next 24-36 hours. After this it should stop the West movement and go West-Southwest. Am thinking that it will intensify to a Category 4 sometime on Sunday as it maintains a West-Southwest motion straight for Cuba. The intensity may very well intensify so much on Sunday - Monday that it could reach Category 5 Status then. It would still be heading West-Southwest toward Cuba. It will plow through the Turks and Caicos Islands as a Category 5 hurricane sometime Early Monday, and Cuba Late Monday into Tuesday as a Category 4 or 5.
This is where it gets interesting. Most global models want to take Ike into Florida as a Category 4 or 5 Hurricane. Mine wants to develop a ridge over Florida, and guide Ike through Cuba, actually making it on the other side, missing Jamaica to the Northwest and continuing West again toward the Yucatan. It then curves back to the Northwest near the Yucatan / Cuba Channel on the latest part of my plot. This is interesting and it should be watched over the days for a possible scenario such as that. It would save Florida from that direct hit.
If it does not follow this, and a ridge fails to move over Florida at the crucial time, Ike will be taken into Miami and Cape Canaveral, FL as a Category 4 or 5 Hurricane. The split point is indeed Northeast Cuba. This is when Ike will decide which way to go. It's where NHC, the global models, and others disagree with my plot. They go into Florida. I want to take Ike straight through Cuba, not a glancing blow...Time will tell...
If you live in Florida, listen to your local media and prepare if needed. Ike is still days out and conditions can rapidly change the track at anytime.
K. MARTIN Quoting: Kevin_Martin
A large category 3 or 4 hurricane would cause massive devastation in Miami. Remember how badly the skyscrapers did during Wilma? Just imagine all that wind from the east and stronger-- it is an ugly scenario. If the 1926 Miami hurricane happened again, Ike would cause billions of dollars worth of damage. I think catastrophe is the only word to describe that. Even if Miami is well-prepared, nothing can make you ready for the 1926-type hurricane.
A piscturesque view of Miami in the aftermath of Ike?
[link to www.1ststeps.org] |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 497658
9/5/2008 8:53 AM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Cabin Fartin' |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 18328
9/5/2008 11:26 AM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
So we could be looking at some serious doom??? |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 497734
9/5/2008 11:32 AM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Ike will soon dissipate.
Most Atlantic major hurricanes run out of steam and severely weaken before landfall.
Ike is no different. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 415176
9/5/2008 12:20 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
NHC is tracking 5 days out more to the south. Bad for Gulf and after that they are not saying!!
I don't like the way this is starting to look for the Gulf!
WTNT44 KNHC 051444
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008
NORTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO A TAKE A TOLL ON IKE. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS CLEAR AND THAT MOST OF THE
CONVECTION IS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. IN ADDITION...A RECENT
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE EYEWALL IS OPEN ON THE NORTH
SIDE. USING A BLEND OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 105 KT...AND
THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON TO OBTAIN
A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND WIND RADII. ALMOST
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DECREASING SHEAR OVER IKE IN ABOUT A
DAY DUE TO A WEAKENING OF STRONG NORTHEASTERLY UPPER WINDS. EXCEPT
FOR A SMALL PATCH OF SSTS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...WATERS ARE VERY WARM ALONG THE FORECAST PATH. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW WEAKENING OF THE HURRICANE DUE TO
THE SHEAR FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THEN SHOWS INTENSIFICATION AS
UPPER-WINDS SLACKEN...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM MODEL. IN
A COUPLE DAYS...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT...AND
CONDITIONS LOOK RATHER FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE IN THE LONGER-RANGE AS THE HWRF AND
GFDL SHOW A MORE INTENSE HURRICANE. REGARDLESS OF EXACTLY HOW
STRONG IT IS...ALL SIGNS ARE THAT IKE WILL BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE
FOR DAYS TO COME.
IKE HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH OF WEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...ABOUT
260/14. THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE WEDGING INTO
BETWEEN IKE AND HANNA. THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS...STEERING THE HURRICANE MORE TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY
WEST-NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WHEN
THIS WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION COULD MATERIALIZE. GENERALLY THE MODELS
THAT DRIVE THE SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH...SUCH AS THE ECMWF/HWRF/GFDL
MODELS...SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN INTACT ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY
SEND IKE TOWARD CUBA OR THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
UKMET/GFDN/NOGAPS...ON THE OTHER HAND...SUGGEST THE HURRICANE WILL
MOVE MORE THE WEST AND HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED BY A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AROUND 80W. SINCE THE HURRICANE IS MOVING
WELL SOUTH OF THE LATTER CLUSTER OF MODELS ALREADY...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GUIDANCE AND SHIFTED
SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
IT CANNOT BE REPEATED ENOUGH THAT FOUR- AND FIVE-DAY TRACK FORECASTS
CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS...AND COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT THE
MODEL SPREAD IS STILL NOTABLE BEYOND 72 HOURS...ONE SHOULD NOT
FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/1500Z 23.2N 62.7W 105 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 22.9N 64.7W 95 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 22.5N 67.4W 90 KT
36HR VT 07/0000Z 22.2N 69.9W 95 KT
48HR VT 07/1200Z 22.2N 72.5W 105 KT
72HR VT 08/1200Z 23.0N 77.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 09/1200Z 24.0N 80.0W 115 KT
120HR VT 10/1200Z 25.5N 82.0W 100 KT |
| Kevin_Martin
User ID: 496821
9/5/2008 12:22 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
NHC is tracking more along my track, however they curve it under Florida into the Gulf. The intersection before my track is what will play this story. Cuba and through? Or curve before Cuba and South of Florida like NHC says...It's a close one but they are NOW on my track for a couple days. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 459297
9/5/2008 12:27 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Is this one Ike, Kevin? I think its is but I just want to check.
[link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]
I bookmarked it but it doesn't have a name on the page. If it is, the eye isn't as well formed as it was a few days ago. |
| Kevin_Martin
User ID: 496821
9/5/2008 12:30 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
That would be Ike. It looks like It's starting to try WSW movement. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 459297
9/5/2008 12:30 PM | | Anonymous Coward
User ID: 459297
9/5/2008 12:32 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
What is a WSW movement in laymans language? |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 459297
9/5/2008 12:33 PM | | Kevin_Martin
User ID: 496821
9/5/2008 12:33 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
I'm sorry. WSW = West-Southwest. So not due west, but a smidgen SW as well. Has mostly West but also some South movement in latitude. |
| Kevin_Martin
User ID: 496821
9/5/2008 12:35 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 459297
my track is not NHC's when I plot these. Notice I don't curve this thing back under Florida North of Cuba and NHC does. The real question is...Will the High over Florida help steer this through Cuba and spare Florida? Or will it not form and Ike heads for the Gulf. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 415176
9/5/2008 12:36 PM | | Anonymous Coward
User ID: 459297
9/5/2008 12:37 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
It's interesting to watch. |
| Taz
User ID: 293268
9/5/2008 12:41 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Thanks for the info, Kevin. We're scheduled to fly into Ft. Myers on Sunday for a 5-day vacation in Sanibel Island and 3 nights in Key West. It looks a little dicey down there right now. What do you think our odds are of avoiding Ike?
Taz |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 415176
9/5/2008 12:41 PM | | Kevin_Martin
User ID: 496821
9/5/2008 12:44 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
User ID: 415176 - Yes. But no models depict the high over Florida and want to curve Ike into the Gulf or Florida. Will be interesting to watch regardless. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 2993
9/5/2008 12:47 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
the economy is in the crapper, unemployment hit a new 5 year high.......yeah Ike is gonna "hit" somewhere and wipe out a bunch of something so that rebuilding and jobs will open up...the stock market will bottom and all will be on the up move again...you watch...........
weather control exists and this economy needs a disaster to spark rebuilding and jobs........enter Ike |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 458338
9/5/2008 12:59 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Kevin-
Props with the Hannah call over Florida.
You suggested it a couple of days ago I think a piece or even a separate low detaching and moving over Florida. None of the local Meteorologists made ANY mention of anything than a few scattered showers. Yesterday afternoon- the clouds started spinning Westward over Florida. Early this morning we started getting rains.
It rained like hell here in S Florida this morning. Rainfall amounts of 5" from Pompano Beach to Boca Raton verified by Weatherbug..
What was interesting was the heavy precip being on the West side of Hannah as opposed to the East side (most typical), which in this case was reversed... |
| Kevin_Martin
User ID: 496821
9/5/2008 1:03 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Thanks 338. Yeah, latest satellite images show two lows. One upper, over Florida for you guys, and one surface, Hanna, moving for North Myrtle Beach, SC. I've put out my final statement on Hanna a couple days or so ago. I was done with her then, lol. She's more like an extra-tropical-storm than a true tropical system in my book. Very large circulation. Not tight like Ike's.
What I'm watching is Ike's West-Southwest movement over the next couple days. I still think he'll go Category 5 very rapidly near the Turks and if he does, this frontal system may not be able to pull him and he'll go straight through Cuba and miss the forecast track on ALL models.
Anyone in Miami is wanting that scenario I am sure because the other scenario is a Cat 4-5 into Southern FL. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 422855
9/5/2008 1:08 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Thanks 338. Yeah, latest satellite images show two lows. One upper, over Florida for you guys, and one surface, Hanna, moving for North Myrtle Beach, SC. I've put out my final statement on Hanna a couple days or so ago. I was done with her then, lol. She's more like an extra-tropical-storm than a true tropical system in my book. Very large circulation. Not tight like Ike's.
What I'm watching is Ike's West-Southwest movement over the next couple days. I still think he'll go Category 5 very rapidly near the Turks and if he does, this frontal system may not be able to pull him and he'll go straight through Cuba and miss the forecast track on ALL models.
Anyone in Miami is wanting that scenario I am sure because the other scenario is a Cat 4-5 into Southern FL. Quoting: Kevin_Martin
FWIW, I believe Ike will enter the Gulf and hit New Orleans head on with 175+ mph winds!
That's my forecast, and I'm sticking to it. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 255704
9/5/2008 1:23 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Hanna looks better organized as it approaches SC. I wouldn't be surprised to see it at cat1 strength in the 2pm or 5pm report. Look for high storm surge along the SC/NC coast regardless. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 415176
9/5/2008 1:25 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Thanks 338. Yeah, latest satellite images show two lows. One upper, over Florida for you guys, and one surface, Hanna, moving for North Myrtle Beach, SC. I've put out my final statement on Hanna a couple days or so ago. I was done with her then, lol. She's more like an extra-tropical-storm than a true tropical system in my book. Very large circulation. Not tight like Ike's.
What I'm watching is Ike's West-Southwest movement over the next couple days. I still think he'll go Category 5 very rapidly near the Turks and if he does, this frontal system may not be able to pull him and he'll go straight through Cuba and miss the forecast track on ALL models.
Anyone in Miami is wanting that scenario I am sure because the other scenario is a Cat 4-5 into Southern FL.
FWIW, I believe Ike will enter the Gulf and hit New Orleans head on with 175+ mph winds!
That's my forecast, and I'm sticking to it. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 422855
You saying that because you don't like New Orleans
You saying that because that is what you really think
Or you saying that to bug me!!
ice |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 2993
9/5/2008 1:29 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
in true glp fashion I would say Gustav was a test run to see if everyone would leave NOLA...they did, turn down the Gus, bring in Ike, no one leaves, turn up the cane and whamo...next rebuild, rebuild, rebuild....jobs, jobs jobs and half the population....... |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 422855
9/5/2008 1:35 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Thanks 338. Yeah, latest satellite images show two lows. One upper, over Florida for you guys, and one surface, Hanna, moving for North Myrtle Beach, SC. I've put out my final statement on Hanna a couple days or so ago. I was done with her then, lol. She's more like an extra-tropical-storm than a true tropical system in my book. Very large circulation. Not tight like Ike's.
What I'm watching is Ike's West-Southwest movement over the next couple days. I still think he'll go Category 5 very rapidly near the Turks and if he does, this frontal system may not be able to pull him and he'll go straight through Cuba and miss the forecast track on ALL models.
Anyone in Miami is wanting that scenario I am sure because the other scenario is a Cat 4-5 into Southern FL.
FWIW, I believe Ike will enter the Gulf and hit New Orleans head on with 175+ mph winds!
That's my forecast, and I'm sticking to it.
You saying that because you don't like New Orleans
You saying that because that is what you really think
Or you saying that to bug me!!
ice Quoting: Anonymous Coward 415176
IMHO, Ike will shoot the gap between Florida and Cuba and hit New Orleans head on with 175mph winds and 200+ mph gale force winds!
You'll see! Watch and wait. |
| Kevin_Martin
User ID: 496821
9/5/2008 1:35 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Wishcast |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 255704
9/5/2008 1:37 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
in true glp fashion I would say Gustav was a test run to see if everyone would leave NOLA...they did, turn down the Gus, bring in Ike, no one leaves, turn up the cane and whamo...next rebuild, rebuild, rebuild....jobs, jobs jobs and half the population....... Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2993
It would be pretty cool to see the hurricane central control facilty. Some manic guy in a big command chair with the hurricane control levers... standing by to rev up the Ike lever. The steering lever is separate of course. |
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