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| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 422855
9/5/2008 1:39 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Wishcast Quoting: Kevin_Martin
I don't insult your forecast, therefore, why should you insult mine? 
Check this out
[link to www.wunderground.com] |
| Kevin_Martin
User ID: 496821
9/5/2008 1:53 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
855, a wishcast. When I lay my stuff down I talk about why, with different pressure systems, fronts etc.
WHY do you think it will hit N.O like that. It's the same with all things. If you say something then provide information backing up the claim. WHY do you think it will go there. Write an explanation. Not just 1 sentence where It's going. We need WHY. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 2993
9/5/2008 2:00 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
in true glp fashion I would say Gustav was a test run to see if everyone would leave NOLA...they did, turn down the Gus, bring in Ike, no one leaves, turn up the cane and whamo...next rebuild, rebuild, rebuild....jobs, jobs jobs and half the population.......
It would be pretty cool to see the hurricane central control facilty. Some manic guy in a big command chair with the hurricane control levers... standing by to rev up the Ike lever. The steering lever is separate of course. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 255704
but see....they showed you the steering mechanism, didnt you see Hannah? What was that little loop de loop thing, that was the command dude waving.....now you just watch what happens with Ike........... |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 411044
9/5/2008 2:30 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 422855
So according to that model it's going to hit the Ft. Myers/Cape Coral area? |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 18328
9/5/2008 2:33 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Time to take bets, people! |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 422855
9/5/2008 2:39 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
855, a wishcast. When I lay my stuff down I talk about why, with different pressure systems, fronts etc.
WHY do you think it will hit N.O like that. It's the same with all things. If you say something then provide information backing up the claim. WHY do you think it will go there. Write an explanation. Not just 1 sentence where It's going. We need WHY. Quoting: Kevin_Martin
I'm not a meteoroligist, bro! Heck, even "professional" meteorologists can't even forecast hurricanes to any degree of certainty or precision. Too many variables come into play.
Let's just say my forecast is a "gut" feeling. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 422855
9/5/2008 3:32 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
855, a wishcast. When I lay my stuff down I talk about why, with different pressure systems, fronts etc.
WHY do you think it will hit N.O like that. It's the same with all things. If you say something then provide information backing up the claim. WHY do you think it will go there. Write an explanation. Not just 1 sentence where It's going. We need WHY.
I'm not a meteoroligist, bro! Heck, even "professional" meteorologists can't even forecast hurricanes to any degree of certainty or precision. Too many variables come into play.
Let's just say my forecast is a "gut" feeling. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 422855
Is that 920 mb!?!?? 12z Euro definitely a huge outlier.
Takes Ike into E TX/W LA!  |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 492614
9/5/2008 4:55 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Wow, Ike lost its eye.
[link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]
Yesterday it was a very symmetric, impressive looking storm. Today, meh. Obv still a looming danger, but can def see the effect of the shear from the north. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 492614
9/5/2008 4:59 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Josephine also lost her convection in that infrared satellite loop. Looks like it got blown off to the NE while you can still see the ghost-like circulation of J off to the SW of the convection, laid bare and still moving NW. Neat! |
| Kevin_Martin
User ID: 496821
9/5/2008 5:08 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Josephine won't last much longer. |
| [vishuz] 
Ganja smoker :]
User ID: 432360
9/5/2008 5:10 PM
 | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Holy shit, this motherfucker will be a category 4 right before getting close to Florida: [link to www.skeetobiteweather.com]
Strong ass storm!
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS PERFORMED THE FIRST
PENETRATIONS ON IKE AND HAS CONFIRMED THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES.
PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 109 KT WERE RECORDED...ALONG WITH SFMR
WINDS OF 94 KT...PLUS A DROPSONDE SUGGESTED WINDS OF AT LEAST 95
KT. A CONSENSUS OF ALL DATA SOURCES SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF
AROUND 100 KT...SO THIS VALUE WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. SOME
WEAKENING COULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY
LATE TOMORROW...AND SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING...PERHAPS
RAPID...BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH
LGEM MODEL EARLY ON...AND IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE GFDL/HWRF
THEREAFTER. A BIG UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS IKE'S POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH CUBA OR FLORIDA...WHICH COULD
WEAKEN THE HURRICANE MORE THAN SHOWN BELOW.
AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST A MOTION OF ABOUT 255/13. A
GRADUAL BEND BACK TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST IN A DAY OR
SO AS RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF IKE WEAKENS SOMEWHAT. ALL
MODELS SUGGEST SOME SORT OF WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR FLORIDA IN A
FEW DAYS BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS WEAKNESS MAY ALLOW A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST TURN
OF THE HURRICANE. GENERALLY...THE MODELS THAT ARE SHOWING THE
NORTHERNMOST TRACKS...SUCH AS THE GFS/NOGAPS...ARE THE ONES
WEAKENING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH FASTER. THE MODELS WITH THE
SOUTHERNMOST TRACKS...SUCH AS THE ECMWF/UKMET/GFDL...SHOW A
STRONGER RIDGE. OVERALL...MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTH...AND I'M GOING TO CONTINUE TO LEAN THE FORECAST IN THAT
DIRECTION. IF CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST...THE FORECAST COULD BE
SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OR WEST LATER TONIGHT.
IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT FOUR- AND FIVE-DAY TRACK FORECASTS CAN
HAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS...AND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT
TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/2100Z 22.9N 64.1W 100 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 22.6N 66.2W 95 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 22.2N 68.9W 95 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 22.1N 71.3W 100 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 22.2N 73.7W 110 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 23.0N 78.2W 115 KT
96HR VT 09/1800Z 24.5N 81.5W 115 KT
120HR VT 10/1800Z 25.5N 83.0W 115 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN
[link to myspace.com] |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 497895
9/5/2008 5:19 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
anyone there from Ft Lauderdale?
what's the situation there, I'd be grateful to know.
thanks |
| [vishuz]
Ganja smoker :]
User ID: 432360
9/5/2008 5:21 PM
| | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
anyone there from Ft Lauderdale?
what's the situation there, I'd be grateful to know.
thanks Quoting: Anonymous Coward 497895
Ike is quite a while away from that area right now. According to the computer models, it will be south of Florida, north of Cuba. It might hit Florida, right Kevin? What is the probability of that?
TIA.
[link to myspace.com] |
| Kevin_Martin
User ID: 496821
9/5/2008 5:22 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Vis, being this is a dangerous storm, I think I'll keep posting what I think but I wouldn't recommend my track or opinion as anything "worthy" right now. I can have people trust in me, but I cannot have them go with what I say, therefore all on out my opinion does not matter with Ike. I'll still post etc but just for fun purposes. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 439103
9/5/2008 5:27 PM | | Anonymous Coward
User ID: 18328
9/5/2008 5:31 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Headed towards NO again.....gotta get it right this time..... |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 497117
9/5/2008 6:32 PM | | Anonymous Coward
User ID: 497117
9/5/2008 6:33 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
855, a wishcast. When I lay my stuff down I talk about why, with different pressure systems, fronts etc.
WHY do you think it will hit N.O like that. It's the same with all things. If you say something then provide information backing up the claim. WHY do you think it will go there. Write an explanation. Not just 1 sentence where It's going. We need WHY. Quoting: Kevin_Martin
people who have watched hurricanes for years guess better than you do lol |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 497117
9/5/2008 6:35 PM | | Kevin_Martin
User ID: 496821
9/5/2008 6:36 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 497117
"J" card time. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 497117
9/5/2008 6:38 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 497117
"I'm watching Ike, and do you see where they stop at WED on the NHC track? That's crucial because it could turn out to sea and become what is known as a "Fish" storm. The chance is there and you can only hope it does."
one minute its going at to sea the next minute its going to cuba  and BOTH are wrong. |
| Kevin_Martin
User ID: 496821
9/5/2008 7:01 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Tropical Weather Service
Tropical-Scale-Discussion
Ontario, California
September 5, 2008–4:00pm PDT
CURRENT - OFFICIAL
Ike is still moving West-Southwest and is almost due North of Puerto Rico. Our track now does have some kind of curve to it. However we still hit Cuba head on. We don't curve North of Cuba so this will need to be taken a look at in future outlooks. We do exit Ike out of Western Cuba and possibly a Category 2. The re-curve we were waiting for might come too late, and curve Ike into near the Tampa Bay, FL area. For now this is the long range track and it is subject to changes.
But I am confident that Ike will affect Cuba.
K. MARTIN |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 492614
9/5/2008 7:15 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Kevin, anyone ever tell you that you look almost exactly like Johnny Depp?  |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 493598
9/5/2008 7:21 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
]
anyone there from Ft Lauderdale?
what's the situation there, I'd be grateful to know.
thanks
Ike is quite a while away from that area right now. According to the computer models, it will be south of Florida, north of Cuba. It might hit Florida, right Kevin? What is the probability of that?
TIA. Quoting: [vishuz
In Miami everyone is running around getting ready. It's getting crazy, just like it does before every hurricane. You'd think people would learn to plan ahead but very few people do. |
| Dean Martin
User ID: 422855
9/5/2008 7:44 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Evacuations in Key West ordered ahead of Hurricane Ike's arrival
[link to www.msnbc.msn.com]
If Ike stays in FL straits, then it's gonna be a CAT 4 entering the GOM! |
| whyidontknow
User ID: 471651
9/5/2008 7:46 PM
 | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
In Miami everyone is running around getting ready. It's getting crazy, just like it does before every hurricane. You'd think people would learn to plan ahead but very few people do. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 493598
i just got back from the store most of the canned goods were ravaged and there was alot of people with full carts
i got 4burritos, pineapple, juice, soup,pickles, sardines-
10 items or less!! haha |
| scimitar
I Just wanna know
User ID: 453961
9/5/2008 7:51 PM
 | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
Josephine won't last much longer. Quoting: Kevin_Martin
I have for some time now appreciated your opinions and have enjoyed your comments........ Trust me this is not a cut, but how did your hat taste concerning Fays' decision not to head for the Yucatan?....He He He
edit: I think I mean Gustav....... Hey I'm an old fart my memory is going.
One Truth.... many realities |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 434311
9/5/2008 7:52 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
We still can't get milk bread eggs etc in wake of Gustav in Louisiana.
It will be a big mess if Ike comes this way, or even threatens. Everyone is exhausted even if they didn't evac and spend all of their money already.
Just the worrying when one is possibly coming is draining. You can't just ignore it and hope it won't happen. |
| Dean Martin
User ID: 422855
9/5/2008 7:53 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
855, a wishcast. When I lay my stuff down I talk about why, with different pressure systems, fronts etc.
WHY do you think it will hit N.O like that. It's the same with all things. If you say something then provide information backing up the claim. WHY do you think it will go there. Write an explanation. Not just 1 sentence where It's going. We need WHY.
I'm not a meteoroligist, bro! Heck, even "professional" meteorologists can't even forecast hurricanes to any degree of certainty or precision. Too many variables come into play.
Let's just say my forecast is a "gut" feeling.
Is that 920 mb!?!?? 12z Euro definitely a huge outlier.
Takes Ike into E TX/W LA!
IKE is on target to strike NOLA!
[link to www.wunderground.com] |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 493598
9/5/2008 7:55 PM | | Re: Ike 145mph sustained | Quote |
In Miami everyone is running around getting ready. It's getting crazy, just like it does before every hurricane. You'd think people would learn to plan ahead but very few people do.
i just got back from the store most of the canned goods were ravaged and there was alot of people with full carts
i got 4burritos, pineapple, juice, soup,pickles, sardines-
10 items or less!! haha Quoting: whyidontknow
Sardines - yuck! LOL I passed those by. I stocked up on peanut butter, cereal, Chef Boyardee, and wine. :) |
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