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Ike 145mph sustained

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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 459297
9/5/2008 7:55 PM

Re: Ike 145mph sustained	Quote
Evacuations in Key West ordered ahead of Hurricane Ike's arrival [link to www.msnbc.msn.com] If Ike stays in FL straits, then it's gonna be a CAT 4 entering the GOM! Quoting: Dean Martin 422855 The Gulf of Mexico always looks like a Pinball machine to me. Its been going for points but the big points have eluded it so far.

[vishuz] Subscriber

Ganja smoker :]
User ID: 432360
9/5/2008 8:19 PM

Re: Ike 145mph sustained	Quote
Wtf... This shows it turning into a category 5 by Saturday night: [link to www.wunderground.com] [link to myspace.com]

[vishuz] Subscriber

Ganja smoker :]
User ID: 432360
9/5/2008 8:21 PM

Re: Ike 145mph sustained	Quote
Would be interesting if it goes through south of FL and into the GOM: [link to icons-pe.wunderground.com] [link to myspace.com]

Ice

User ID: 474255
9/5/2008 8:31 PM

Re: Ike 145mph sustained	Quote
] Would be interesting if it goes through south of FL and into the GOM: [link to icons-pe.wunderground.com] Quoting: [vishuz what would be interesting about it? [link to www.skeetobiteweather.com] models looking bad ice Proverbs 1:7 The fear of the LORD is the beginning of knowledge, but fools despise wisdom and discipline.

Ice

User ID: 474255
9/5/2008 8:32 PM

Re: Ike 145mph sustained	Quote
can't tell you how we in Louisiana are not loving this!! ice [link to www.skeetobiteweather.com] Proverbs 1:7 The fear of the LORD is the beginning of knowledge, but fools despise wisdom and discipline.

Ice

User ID: 474255
9/5/2008 8:34 PM

Re: Ike 145mph sustained

Quote

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS PERFORMED THE FIRST
PENETRATIONS ON IKE AND HAS CONFIRMED THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES.
PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 109 KT WERE RECORDED...ALONG WITH SFMR
WINDS OF 94 KT...PLUS A DROPSONDE SUGGESTED WINDS OF AT LEAST 95
KT. A CONSENSUS OF ALL DATA SOURCES SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF
AROUND 100 KT...SO THIS VALUE WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. SOME
WEAKENING COULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY
LATE TOMORROW...AND SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING...PERHAPS
RAPID...BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH
LGEM MODEL EARLY ON...AND IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE GFDL/HWRF
THEREAFTER. A BIG UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS IKE'S POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH CUBA OR FLORIDA...WHICH COULD
WEAKEN THE HURRICANE MORE THAN SHOWN BELOW.

AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST A MOTION OF ABOUT 255/13. A
GRADUAL BEND BACK TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST IN A DAY OR
SO AS RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF IKE WEAKENS SOMEWHAT. ALL
MODELS SUGGEST SOME SORT OF WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR FLORIDA IN A
FEW DAYS BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS WEAKNESS MAY ALLOW A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST TURN
OF THE HURRICANE. GENERALLY...THE MODELS THAT ARE SHOWING THE
NORTHERNMOST TRACKS...SUCH AS THE GFS/NOGAPS...ARE THE ONES
WEAKENING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH FASTER. THE MODELS WITH THE
SOUTHERNMOST TRACKS...SUCH AS THE ECMWF/UKMET/GFDL...SHOW A
STRONGER RIDGE. OVERALL...MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTH...AND I'M GOING TO CONTINUE TO LEAN THE FORECAST IN THAT
DIRECTION. IF CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST...THE FORECAST COULD BE
SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OR WEST LATER TONIGHT.

IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT FOUR- AND FIVE-DAY TRACK FORECASTS CAN
HAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS...AND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT
TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 22.9N 64.1W 100 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 22.6N 66.2W 95 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 22.2N 68.9W 95 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 22.1N 71.3W 100 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 22.2N 73.7W 110 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 23.0N 78.2W 115 KT
96HR VT 09/1800Z 24.5N 81.5W 115 KT
120HR VT 10/1800Z 25.5N 83.0W 115 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN

Proverbs 1:7 The fear of the LORD is the beginning of knowledge, but fools despise wisdom and discipline.

Anonymous Coward
User ID: 490625
9/5/2008 8:41 PM

Re: Ike 145mph sustained	Quote
a recent shot of hannah [link to img402.imageshack.us]

[vishuz] Subscriber

Ganja smoker :]
User ID: 432360
9/5/2008 9:06 PM

Re: Ike 145mph sustained	Quote
] Would be interesting if it goes through south of FL and into the GOM: [link to icons-pe.wunderground.com] what would be interesting about it? [link to www.skeetobiteweather.com] models looking bad ice Quoting: Ice Interesting because history would be opposing that track. Interesting... but not a good thing. [link to myspace.com]

Ice

User ID: 474255
9/5/2008 9:09 PM

Re: Ike 145mph sustained

Quote

]

]
Would be interesting if it goes through south of FL and into the GOM: [link to icons-pe.wunderground.com]

what would be interesting about it?

[link to www.skeetobiteweather.com]

models looking bad

ice

Interesting because history would be opposing that track.

Interesting... but not a good thing.

Quoting: [vishuz

yep

we still have big problems in Louisiana!!

trees

power

outages

no gas

not much in stores but that is getting better!!

Proverbs 1:7 The fear of the LORD is the beginning of knowledge, but fools despise wisdom and discipline.

Anonymous Coward
User ID: 498026
9/5/2008 9:19 PM

Re: Ike 145mph sustained	Quote
Can anyone let me know how Shreveport is going and whether theres any risk with Ike, I have a dear friend there!

Anonymous Coward
User ID: 480174
9/5/2008 9:20 PM

Re: Ike 145mph sustained	Quote
Ike is the one to start sweating over.

Doominator
User ID: 162364
9/5/2008 9:24 PM

Re: Ike 145mph sustained	Quote
I saw a lot of Louisiana vehicles heading home from Memphis this morning. Maybe they should have stayed another week. This doesn't look good.......

Anonymous Coward
User ID: 436473
9/5/2008 9:28 PM

Re: Ike 145mph sustained	Quote
can't tell you how we in Louisiana are not loving this!! ice [link to www.skeetobiteweather.com] Quoting: Ice Jeeze Ice, As an east coaster (going to get some rain from Hanna over the weekend) I'm glad Ike isn't aiming our way... But, I sure as heck don't want to see you guys getting another scare. We'll be prayin' for you!

<October> Subscriber

User ID: 427959
9/5/2008 9:36 PM

Re: Ike 145mph sustained

Quote

can't tell you how we in Louisiana are not loving this!!

ice

[link to www.skeetobiteweather.com]

Jeeze Ice,

As an east coaster (going to get some rain from Hanna over the weekend) I'm glad Ike isn't aiming our way...

But, I sure as heck don't want to see you guys getting another scare.

We'll be prayin' for you!

Quoting: Anonymous Coward 436473

I second that!

I hope they're wrong, Ice. You guys have had your share, I'd say.

Keep in mind that it's all spaghetti models right now...

Wishing the best for yall! hugs

~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I Serve The Lady
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
For Goodness' Sake
~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Ice

User ID: 474255
9/5/2008 10:01 PM

Re: Ike 145mph sustained	Quote
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm _09 models no good still does not mean a landfall for Louisiana but east coast was much better!!! ice Proverbs 1:7 The fear of the LORD is the beginning of knowledge, but fools despise wisdom and discipline.

Ice

User ID: 474255
9/5/2008 10:06 PM

Re: Ike 145mph sustained	Quote
rough looking storm!!!! [link to rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov] Proverbs 1:7 The fear of the LORD is the beginning of knowledge, but fools despise wisdom and discipline.

Kevin_Martin
User ID: 496821
9/5/2008 10:06 PM

Re: Ike 145mph sustained	Quote
Kevin, anyone ever tell you that you look almost exactly like Johnny Depp? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 492614 Yes every single place I go, lol.

Still Me
User ID: 497459
9/5/2008 10:07 PM

Re: Ike 145mph sustained	Quote
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_09 models no good still does not mean a landfall for Louisiana but east coast was much better!!! ice Quoting: Ice Message from the East: "Turn around West..."

Dean Martin
User ID: 422855
9/5/2008 10:27 PM

Re: Ike 145mph sustained

Quote

Evacuations in Key West ordered ahead of Hurricane Ike's arrival
[link to www.msnbc.msn.com]

If Ike stays in FL straits, then it's gonna be a CAT 4 entering the GOM!

Quoting: Dean Martin 422855

the majority of the computer models take Ike between FL and Cuba and then turn the storm to the NNW around the tip of FL. The Gulf States are really going to have to watch out for Ike as the shear looks to be low and TCHP is high in the GOM. Right now, The FL Keys NEED to be evacuated. Then, the FL panhandle west to MS/LA boarder will need to be on high alert. With folks further west into LA and TX keeping a close eye.

<October> Subscriber

User ID: 427959
9/5/2008 10:32 PM

Re: Ike 145mph sustained	Quote
rough looking storm!!!! [link to rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov] Quoting: Ice Scary stuff... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ I Serve The Lady ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ For Goodness' Sake ~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Anonymous Coward
User ID: 276680
9/5/2008 10:33 PM

Re: Ike 145mph sustained	Quote
it's going to shoot the gap and hit New Orleans..

Ice

User ID: 474255
9/5/2008 10:39 PM

Re: Ike 145mph sustained	Quote
it's going to shoot the gap and hit New Orleans.. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 276680 nope!!! it's going to hit going to bonce off the gap and go south and make Kevin look like the man!! ice Proverbs 1:7 The fear of the LORD is the beginning of knowledge, but fools despise wisdom and discipline.

Kevin_Martin
User ID: 496821
9/5/2008 10:44 PM

Re: Ike 145mph sustained	Quote
I think it will miss N.O to the East by a long shot.

Ice

User ID: 474255
9/5/2008 10:47 PM

Re: Ike 145mph sustained	Quote
I think it will miss N.O to the East by a long shot. Quoting: Kevin_Martin thanks Kevin I needed that!!! sorry I went off on you!! please just forget it I can be a ass I am just tired not much sleep at all!!! Proverbs 1:7 The fear of the LORD is the beginning of knowledge, but fools despise wisdom and discipline.

Kevin_Martin
User ID: 496821
9/5/2008 10:51 PM

Re: Ike 145mph sustained

Quote

Its' fine ICE. If I was in your situation and had to leave from a hurricane I would be stressed as well. I never had to do that. I don't know the feeling, therefore I imagine It's really rough and is scary.

I really don't know about Ike. Climatology speaking Ike is not following the rules right now and should re-curve back out to sea.

But if if follows the path It's taking it would be near Cuba then bounce back and hit the Keys head on at a Major Hurricane. After the Keys it would be in the Eastern Gulf and hit the Florida Panhandle as a Category 2.

Dean Martin
User ID: 422855
9/5/2008 10:52 PM

Re: Ike 145mph sustained	Quote
I think it will miss N.O to the East by a long shot. Quoting: Kevin_Martin I disagree with you. I firmly believe New Orleans is going to be wiped off the map. Let's see what happens. BTW, keep up the fine work! Your tornado lab work is second to none. This one is for your trolls:

Anonymous Coward
User ID: 276680
9/5/2008 10:55 PM

Re: Ike 145mph sustained	Quote
Just look at the long-term track ... straight for N.O [link to www.nhc.noaa.gov] RIP

Anonymous Coward
User ID: 276680
9/5/2008 10:56 PM

Re: Ike 145mph sustained	Quote
and I would put more faith in the National Hurricane Center than a 'GLP meterologist' snort

Dean Martin
User ID: 422855
9/5/2008 10:57 PM

Re: Ike 145mph sustained	Quote
Just look at the long-term track ... straight for N.O [link to www.nhc.noaa.gov] RIP Quoting: Anonymous Coward 276680 This one says it all: [link to www.wunderground.com] NOLA IS TOAST! IMHO

TM62
User ID: 498070
9/5/2008 10:57 PM

Re: Ike 145mph sustained	Quote
[link to radar.weather.gov] Have you seen the US loop?? Some crazy weather happening.

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