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| | Page 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 | David W. Tice (Manages $2 Trillion) "Dow Jones will go to 5,708"
| Mr. Berkut
User ID: 497238
9/4/2008 4:41 PM
Report abusive post | David W. Tice (Manages $2 Trillion) "Dow Jones will go to 5,708"
| Quote |
I'd never heard of David Tice, so I looked him up.
"His firm publishes investment research “sell” recommendations to more than 200 money managers who collectively manage more than $2 trillion. Searching for overvalued common stocks, David W. Tice & Associates,’ eleven full-time analysts serve as a “truth squad” to keep Wall Street honest."
**********************************
Huge Stock Decline Ahead
(snip)
David Tice has made himself famous for successfully shorting stocks. Now the investment manager sees a bear market for the next five years, with share prices dropping 50 percent to 70 percent over the next 18 months.
That would put the Dow Jones Industrial Average somewhere between 3,425 and 5,708.
"Policymakers and central bankers have perpetuated a bubble like we've never seen before, with mortgage financing that has put government sponsored enterprises (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) in trouble," he says.
"The whole structure of the financing mechanism, where foreigners bought all these [mortgage] securities, has broken down. Institutions and foreigners no long trust our structure, insurance, ratings, etc."
As a result, Tice says, "We're in big trouble." |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 497227
9/4/2008 4:45 PM | | Re: David W. Tice (Manages $2 Trillion) "Dow Jones will go to 5,708" | Quote |
I think I gotta go see my broker. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 494399
9/4/2008 4:48 PM | | Re: David W. Tice (Manages $2 Trillion) "Dow Jones will go to 5,708" | Quote |
17 october maybe 2.700?mmm |
| canislatrans 
Coyote
User ID: 258111
9/4/2008 4:53 PM
 | | Re: David W. Tice (Manages $2 Trillion) "Dow Jones will go to 5,708" | Quote |
can we have a link?
And those who were seen dancing were thought to be insane by those who could not hear the music. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 497014
9/4/2008 4:55 PM | | Re: David W. Tice (Manages $2 Trillion) "Dow Jones will go to 5,708" | Quote |
Providing analysis and research for others to make decisions regarding investments is not the same as managing $2 trillion portfolio. misleading thread title. |
| Berkut
User ID: 497238 (OP)
9/5/2008 10:05 AM | | Re: David W. Tice (Manages $2 Trillion) "Dow Jones will go to 5,708" | Quote |
If this is the third, (under Elliott Wave counts), it is actually the third of the third - and in that action Thursday, we had a one down, two up, and a three down, which does not appear to be complete yet. And, it's initial target is around 10,800. And then we will have a little 4, and then a five, and once we do get that 10,800, if we the panic, because that was the recently low back in July, the targets will be somewhere in the neighborhood of (for the Dow) somewhere in the 10,695 area..
If we break that, then I expect we'll go straight down to the 9,700 area I mentioned in my comments a while back.
---
The interesting thing about what is happening now is that when we had broken the 200 week moving average, going into the July 15th low, we rallied back up to the 200 week average, recently, and it now turned down again.
Going on down from here, if this leg of the decline is from 13, 136 and you subtract 10,816, that equals 2,320 points. Then if you take the recent high of 11,865 minus 2,320 points, that gives you the 9,545 - which I think is where we're headed right now.
---
We're in an oversold area and of course, I have told you that crashes happen when the market is oversold. So, does this have the chance to be the Big One? Absolutely! We are now in the timeframe for the major crashes to Occur - which are usually September into October.
---
I have mentioned to you that the highs are usually seen in August. And so it's following the 'normal' yearly pattern and I suspect that whether it goes beyond the 9,545 to 9,700 levels, in fact we could see 9,,223, one of those little fours will hold for a rally. At what degree? I can't tell you because it will be shaped by the decline ahead.
But, would it surprise me to see a thousand point down day? No.
When you see the action that you saw the action on Tuesday - with a strong rally, that was a failed C wave of Wave 2. (Subscribers: see the earlier technical note this week on the rally set-up-G)
When a wave fails it does so because the momentum in the opposite direction is so great, that it can't reach its normal target. That's like a failed fifth wave on the upside. So all of the things are coming together.
---
What is particularly bearish is that the 50-week moving average is now going down toward the 200-week moving average. When the 50-week crosses the 200-week moving average, things can really accelerate to the downside. you'll see all kinds of government actions trying to stop it.
They might - for a while - temporarily, but it doesn't change the ultimate outcome.
The other thing that I think is very telling is that since January of 2008, the Dow Jones 50-day moving average crossed through the 200-day moving average and the high in May rallied back up to the 200-day moving average. And then it accelerated down into the low of July the 15th.
This recent rally that's just ended Tuesday on the highs with the reversal, all it could barely do was test the high of the 7th of August or so, and then it accelerated down and broke back through.
Now you have the 50-day below the 200-day moving average and the 50-week is approaching the 200-week moving average.
Many times when they are in this mode, you get your crash, you get a rally, and then you get a test. The crash being the third, rally being the fourth wave, and the test being the 5th.
---
This time if that happens we want to see bullish divergences. If we do not see bullish divergences, then it means that we're more than likely on our way to the 7,400 area without a subsequent 6-montyh to year rally in-between.
(Note, this would fit like a glove with the predictive linguistics which point toward a financial 'lockdown' in November and lots of bad woo woo through Feb-mar of '09 - G)
In other words, it appears the way things are going that we are lining up for a quicker downside resolution than what I had been anticipating because I thought we would have a decline down to 9,700 area, then a 3-6 month rally, and it could surprise us and set a brand new high.
But, we will learn more in this timeframe between now and the end of the year with the wave structure and the breadth of the decline. That'll give us a clue as to when the subsequent rally goes up, or whether we are in what Mr. Prechter describes as a Grand Super Cycle Decline that will last most of our lifetimes.
---
The main thing to get from these comments of mine is that if you're in the market, you need to get out as soon as possible. It's better to be aggressive at getting out, and have to go back in, than to sit on the sidelines and watch everything collapse in front of you.
You know the saying "He who takes his chips and walks away, lives to play another day"? I was reminded in my readings Thursday that the best thing an investor can do is turn off CNBC. They are a perfect mirror of what is actually happening. They'll advice do this and this....a few days ago bullish, Thursday bearish - you can't play that kind of emotional roller-coaster and come out alive.
While I have it on, 90 percent of the time I keep it muted and I use it as a sentiment gauge - by who they have on and what charts they put up. It's getting so I can read lips...and you must have a plan and stick to the plan.
So, with such sage words, you might be asking, what are Landry's clients doing - if anything at this stage in the market. His answer:
"We are in short-term treasury ETF's and short the double Dow ETF with 5-10% of our funds."
If we take out that 9,300 kind of area, the next fourth degree down level is what?
"7400."
And then if we step back even further from the chart, what's the next fourth down of a larger degree?
"The next one of larger degree is at 3,059"
And is there one after that?
"777."
(Gulp!) The one after that?
"That'd be the 1933 low - you can look it up."
---
All of which sets the tone for the real socioeconomic speculation of the morning, which goes something like this:
When the US entered the Great Depression of the 1930's, there was not a lot of linkage between the financial economy and the general economy of the Nation. In other words, paper finance, commodities, the military, and the development of technology were not so intertwined as they are today. The ,falling commodity prices, due to automation of farms, came first.
I would argue that there has been a grand blurring of lines, in order to keep the general economy alive, to such an extent that recovery from a potential crash will be much more difficult than ever before, and thus, the amount of suffering may possibly be greater. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 497238 (OP)
9/5/2008 10:22 AM | | Re: David W. Tice (Manages $2 Trillion) "Dow Jones will go to 5,708" | Quote |
All of which sets the tone for the real socioeconomic speculation of the morning, which goes something like this:
When the US entered the Great Depression of the 1930's, there was not a lot of linkage between the financial economy and the general economy of the Nation. In other words, paper finance, commodities, the military, and the development of technology were not so intertwined as they are today. The ,falling commodity prices, due to automation of farms, came first.
I would argue that there has been a grand blurring of lines, in order to keep the general economy alive, to such an extent that recovery from a potential crash will be much more difficult than ever before, and thus, the amount of suffering may possibly be greater.
My source in Geneva has put up an interesting page here which contains, among other things, two documents which you might want to take a read through this weekend. One is a strategic view by the UK Ministry of Defence "Development, Concepts and Doctrine Center". The key thing in this report (that I pointed out to subscribers last weekend) is that in the event of a major downturn in the economy, the risks of terrorism and the like might possibly go up dramatically because unemployed people will do many things for money or food. The other papers on the page may be of interest as well. That Treasury paper, for instance.
---
As the economic lines have blurred, we have seen a return to weekend banking many years back, the move of bankers into investment, again, a blurring of the lines that was a precursor to the Great Depression. And now, we're seeing how finance has become a key tool in State Policy toward terrorist organizations.
We're blurring lines this time around in other areas, too. We didn't have a carry-trade in the 1930's experience and certainly the global inter-market linkages didn't exist.
So we come, over the next year or so to a fascinating point in history which will give us one of two possible outcomes.
The optimistic case is that because of inter-market linkages, the expansion of federal financial strategy toward foreign policy goals and anti-terrorism efforts, and all the like, will add systemic resilient to the point where the Global Economic System will be able to muddle-through a massive periodic correction of past excesses in the credit markets.
The pessimistic outcome is that the excesses in the financial instruments markets have now been spread around so much - touching almost every part of the USA systemically, that a Crash now will not only trash the banksters on Wall Street, but it will trash the Military, Agriculture, Industry, and Services. Each has become so intertwined with the financial system that the systemic decline threatening could essentially take down the whole country, not just the financial core.
---
We shouldn't have too long to wait. A year at tops. But if you wake up one morning and read headlines about how the U.S. Dollar, currently in a counter-trend rally against other global currencies, has suddenly reversed course and is in decline again -- to the point where ships full of goods for the American market are turned around on the high seas to take their goods back home - then that will finally answer the question of whether expansion of the pool of players with 'skin in the game' really does as systemic stability, or whether it simply crashes the whole country.
Meantime, Russia is committed to a strong ruble policy, spending $4 billion to support it.
Me? Too close to call, I figure. As a student of history, I can see that without 9/11, the WOT and the subsequent Wars and Housing Bubble, the Crash to wipe out malinvestment should have happened in 2001/2002 when the Internet Bubble burst.
The intervening policy decisions (and you can carry that anywhere you will) have kept the game going, but with necessary expansion of participants. To the point where now, we read how fixed income gurus like Bill Gross are saying that the U.S. will have to buy assets to prevent a financial tsunami. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 57834
9/5/2008 10:28 AM | | Re: David W. Tice (Manages $2 Trillion) "Dow Jones will go to 5,708" | Quote |
and gold historically reaches 50 to 100 % of dow price.So 2500 to 5000 |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 484691
9/5/2008 10:30 AM | | Re: David W. Tice (Manages $2 Trillion) "Dow Jones will go to 5,708" | Quote |
Uh, the guy is a newsletter writer? |
| Berkut
User ID: 497238 (OP)
9/5/2008 11:01 AM | | Re: David W. Tice (Manages $2 Trillion) "Dow Jones will go to 5,708" | Quote |
On an inflation adjusted basis, gold should be trading around $2,500 per ounce. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 495418
9/5/2008 11:03 AM | | Re: David W. Tice (Manages $2 Trillion) "Dow Jones will go to 5,708" | Quote |
Adjusted for inflation the DOW is about there all ready.
USD has lost 63% in the last 8 years. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 495418
9/5/2008 11:03 AM | | Re: David W. Tice (Manages $2 Trillion) "Dow Jones will go to 5,708" | Quote |
Uh, the guy is a newsletter writer? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 484691
Fund Manager for the Prudent Bear Fund. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 497238 (OP)
9/5/2008 11:04 AM | | Re: David W. Tice (Manages $2 Trillion) "Dow Jones will go to 5,708" | Quote |
U.S. Mortgage Foreclosures, Delinquencies Reach Highs NOT SEEN IN 29 YEARS FOLKS!!!!!!(Update1) By Kathleen M. Howley
Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Foreclosures accelerated in the second quarter to the fastest pace in almost three decades as interest rates increased and home values fell, prompting more Americans to walk away from homes they couldn't refinance or sell.
New foreclosures increased to 1.19 percent, rising above 1 percent for the first time in the survey's 29 years, the Mortgage Bankers Association said in a report today. The total inventory of homes in foreclosure reached 2.75 percent, almost tripling since the five-year housing boom ended in 2005. The share of loans with one or more payments overdue rose to a seasonally adjusted 6.41 percent of all mortgages, an all-time high, from 6.35 percent in the first quarter.
Tumbling home prices are making it difficult for even the most creditworthy owners with adjustable-rate mortgages to sell or get a new loan as their financing costs rise, said Jay Brinkmann, MBA's chief economist. Prime ARMs accounted for 23 percent of new foreclosures and subprime ARMs were 36 percent, he said.
``People chose the lowest payment option to get into some of the very expensive housing markets and now that prices are coming way down, they can't sell and they can't afford the higher payments,'' Brinkmann said in an interview.
The three-year-old housing slump has slowed growth of the world's largest economy, caused more than half a trillion dollars of losses at banks such as Citigroup Inc. and UBS AG, and crimped earnings for companies such as Home Depot Inc. and Lowe's Cos. that rely on home purchases to fuel demand.
Economic Growth
The drop in home sales and values, along with tighter credit conditions and higher energy costs, probably will ``weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters,'' Federal Reserve policy makers said Aug. 5 when they decided to hold their benchmark rate at 2 percent. The central bankers cut the rate seven times in the last year in an attempt to avert a U.S. recession.
The Fed probably will keep the rate level for the next few months, according to the price of Fed funds futures. There's an 81 percent chance of no change at the Sept. 16 meeting and a 75 percent chance of no action at the Oct. 29 meeting, they indicate.
Foreclosures started on prime mortgages rose to 0.67 percent from 0.54 percent and the foreclosure inventory increased to 1.42 percent from 1.22 percent, the report said. The share of seriously delinquent prime mortgages was 2.35 percent, up from 1.99 percent.
Prime Mortgages
The share of new foreclosures on prime ARMs was 1.82 percent, triple the 0.58 percent in the year-earlier quarter, and the total foreclosure inventory was 4.33 percent, up from 1.29 percent, the report said. The share of seriously delinquent prime ARMs was 6.78 percent, rising from 2.02 percent a year ago.
New foreclosures on subprime loans rose to 4.7 percent from 4.06 percent in the first quarter, according to the report. The total foreclosure inventory increased to 11.81 percent from 10.74 percent and the so-called seriously delinquent share of loans that are 90 days or more overdue rose to 17.85 from 16.42 percent.
Existing home sales fell to a 10-year low in the second quarter and the median price for a single-family house dropped 7.6 percent, according to the National Association of Realtors in Chicago.
About 75 percent of U.S. banks surveyed indicated they tightened standards on prime mortgages, up from 60 percent in the previous survey, the Federal Reserve said on Aug. 11.
The Mortgage Bankers report is based on a survey of 45.4 million loans by mortgage companies, commercial banks, thrifts, credit unions and other financial institutions.
To contact the reporter on this story: Kathleen M. Howley in Boston at kmhowley@bloomberg.net. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 498349
9/6/2008 12:01 PM | | Re: David W. Tice (Manages $2 Trillion) "Dow Jones will go to 5,708" | Quote |
U.S. Near Deal on Fannie, Freddie
Tags: ECONOMY
The Treasury Department is close to completing a plan to help shore up mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, according to people familiar with the matter.
The plan is expected to involve a creative use of Treasury's authority to intervene in the two companies, which it won earlier this year. One option under serious consideration would be to put the companies into the conservatorship of their regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, said two people familiar with the matter. That would amount to a government takeover.
Webmaster's Commentary:
Note the use of the phrase "...a creative use of Treasury's authority to intervene in the two companies."
And remember: it's your collective checkbooks which are going to wind up bailing out these two private entities. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 498338
9/6/2008 12:10 PM | | Re: David W. Tice (Manages $2 Trillion) "Dow Jones will go to 5,708" | Quote |
When I was a kid we had a cat that my older brother named "Mr Berkut"...I have no idea why either, or where he came up with the name and I can't ask him because both He and the Cat are both passed away |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 498349
9/6/2008 1:10 PM | | Re: David W. Tice (Manages $2 Trillion) "Dow Jones will go to 5,708" | Quote |
September 4, 2008 12:42PM
The Banks’ Next Hot Zone: Home Equity Delinquencies
By Elizabeth MacDonald
Delinquencies on home equity loans and lines of credit are at their highest levels in a decade.
That should give Wall Street and investors pause. Because when home equity borrowers, default on their lines of credit, bankers don’t have first recourse to the underlying property, the home. Mortgage bankers who own the mortgage on the home do. That’s why bankers are growing ashen-white over looming losses, and why they are scrambling to fix this problem now.
The numbers are staggering. Borrowers had outstanding $1.12 tn of home equity loans this year, virtually the same amount in the fourth quarter of 2007.
The American Bankers Association recently said the percentage of home equity lines of credit more than 30 days past due rose to 1.10 % during the first quarter, the highest since 1997, though still lower than bank card delinquencies which hit 4.51 %, slightly above the five year average delinquency rate of 4.40 %. The number of home equity lines more than a month past due is 55% above the average since the American Bankers Association began tracking it around 1990; delinquencies on home equity loans are 45% higher.
Sluggish personal income growth, plunging home equity, job losses and a rocky stock market, as well as soaring food and energy prices, are partly to blame for the spike in delinquencies.
Over the past two decades, value of home equity loan balances outstanding soared to more than $1 tn from just $1 bn. One in four homeowners have a home equity line of credit, and banks have made huge sums of money on them due to fat fees, returns that are a quarter or 50% higher than regular consumer loans.
Lenders are to blame for recasting these loans as borrowings that really didn’t seem to be backed by their most important investment, their homes, caling these loans “equity access” or as a Citigroup campaign called it, take a home equity loan and “Live Richly” or as Fleet Bank once advertised it, “”The smartest place to borrow? Your place.” All glammed up ways to essentially hock your house.
Bank exposure to home equity lines/loans are a major problem is huge. At last look, Wells Fargo (WFC: 31.20, +1.53, +5.15%) had $84 bn of them on their portfolio. In late 2007, Wells Fargo hived off $12 bn in home-equity loans in a separate portfolio to prepare them for liquidation. Bank of America (BAC: 32.23, +1.63, +5.32%), Wachovia (WB: 16.75, +1.22, +7.85%) and JPMorgan Chase have frozen borrowers’ access to home equity lines or changed the terms to cut their potential home equity exposure, The Financial Times reports.
National City (NCC: 4.82, +0.03, +0.62%), the US bank that has been among the hardest hit by the subprime crisis, is trying to cut its exposure to the riskiest category of home loans by offering customers cash to close their untapped home equity lines, the Financial Times reported.
If the scheme is successful, analysts say other banks could follow suit, choosing to spend money now to avoid taking on more exposure to the US housing slump.
The bank’s initiative, which was launched at the end of July, encourages National City customers to surrender their unused home equity lines by waiving the $350 fee it would normally charge for closing the line and by writing customers a $200 check. The idea here is to avoid future losses on lines or home equity loans that go belly up by enticing borrowers to bail out of them early with cash. The question for banks is, will this be a help in getting their own houses in order, and, for borrowers, is it worth taking the money and running?
Finally, the losses don’t just stop on the loans and lines of credit themselves. They also will take a bite out of bonds backed by these borrowings.
Moody’s Investors Service issued a report recently that said losses on prime home-equity loans, also called second mortgages, repackaged into bonds, vintage 2007, will climb to 17% on average. Home equity backed bonds from 2006 will rise to 13%, and 6% for 2005.
For home-equity lines of credit, 2007 bond losses will rise to 26 %, Moody’s said. For 2006, losses on securities will increase to 24 %, while losses for 2005 “vintage” bonds will reach 9%. |
| Berkut
User ID: 500257
9/9/2008 5:46 PM | | Re: David W. Tice (Manages $2 Trillion) "Dow Jones will go to 5,708" | Quote |
Tuesday, September 09, 2008
Lehman Worth A Big Zero?
Lehman is getting crushed today. It may not be long for this world. Bloomberg is reporting Lehman Shares Fall After Talks With Korean Bank End.
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. fell 35 percent in New York trading after talks about a capital infusion from Korea Development Bank ended. The Wall Street firm is continuing to negotiate with other potential investors, a person briefed on the matter said.
Lehman, based in New York, has been seeking to raise capital and shed devalued real estate assets after $8.2 billion in writedowns and credit losses in the past year. Korean regulators told the development bank it would be "inappropriate" to pursue a Lehman acquisition.
Lehman CEO Richard Fuld and President Bart McDade are preparing to announce third-quarter financial results next week along with the outcome of their negotiations to sell assets and obtain cash infusions from outside investors.
The announcement will include "key strategic initiatives," Lehman said in a statement yesterday, without elaborating.
The firm has been in talks Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co., Carlyle Group and other private-equity firms interested in buying its asset-management unit. Lehman is mulling all options and hasn't concluded any of the discussions yet, the person familiar with the matter said. Fuld will decide in the next 10 days how best to raise capital, the person said.
Lehman (LEH) Daily Chart
click on chart for sharper image
Yesterday Lehman gapped up to 17.73 and I called it ridiculous. It was ridiculous.
Why was Fannie and Freddie equity and preferred shares going to zero supposed to be a savior for Lehman?
Here is the chart I posted in Stunning Reversals.
Lehman 5 Minute Chart
click on chart for sharper image
Today Lehman traded as low as $8.00. If Lehman cannot quickly raise capital $8 is still ridiculous.
Zero Value
Bloomberg is reporting Wall Street Trading Gets Zero Value From Lehman, Merrill Owners.
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. is trying to sell its fund-management unit to cover further mortgage- related writedowns. If it does, what's left won't be worth much, based on how investors value the firm.
Lehman's market capitalization of $11.2 billion is almost equal to the value of its asset-management arm, which includes Neuberger Berman Inc. That leaves its main business of trading stocks and bonds as having little worth. The numbers are similar for Merrill Lynch & Co.: Take out its retail-brokerage and asset- management businesses, and the investors' valuation of the rest of the third-biggest U.S. securities firm is zero.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analyst William Tanona estimates another $12 billion of losses for the three firms in the third quarter. Those probably will wipe out any trading revenue for the period.
"Uncertainty requires a discount," said Roger Lister, New York-based chief credit officer for financial institutions at DBRS Inc., a Canadian credit-rating company. "Equity investors are worried about writedowns resulting in more dilution. That swamps longer-term valuations. Similarly, the credit-default swaps on these banks' debt are treated like junk."
Lehman would be crippled more than its rivals if it sold its asset-management division, he said. While Morgan Stanley and Merrill have retail-brokerage divisions to bring in revenue, Lehman would be hard-pressed to replace the income it earns from asset management.
Investors are having a hard time valuing the rest of the business at Lehman because there's no transparency about the mortgage securities on their books, said Janet Tavakoli, author of "Credit Derivatives & Synthetic Structures." Lehman, Merrill and Morgan Stanley borrowed heavily to fund their mortgage investments, which is coming back to hurt them, she said. The three investment banks' total assets were about 30 times their capital levels last year.
"When you're highly leveraged, you need to be very careful about the quality of your fixed-income assets," said Tavakoli, president of Chicago-based Tavakoli Structured Finance Inc. "Even if you held Treasuries, you could lose big money when interest rates moved against you. When you take credit risk as well, which was the case with mortgage bonds, then you're really in trouble."
From The Trading Desk
Minyanville professor Bennet Sedacca is writing about Lehman preferreds and Washington Mutual (WM) credit default swaps (CDS)
On Deck: Lehman
Lehman(LEH) preferreds are now offered in size at 17%.
Washington Mutual (WM) CDS are trading around the 30% level.
Me thinks LEH is next.
And if you own the preferreds, you can expect... zero.
The best case is that the company sells its good assets and ends up a carcase. Meanwhile, most of my Street contacts won't trade with 'em.
Key Strategic Initiatives
Lehman CEO talked about "key strategic initiatives".
THE key strategic initiative is to raise capital. And no one is biting. Without capital it is the end of the line. Lehman's equity is worthless. Depending on the agreement to raise capital, its shares could be worth zero even IF it does raise capital. Anyone smell another Fed sponsored shotgun marriage coming up?
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
[link to globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com] |
| Berkut
User ID: 500257
9/9/2008 6:15 PM | | Re: David W. Tice (Manages $2 Trillion) "Dow Jones will go to 5,708" | Quote |
The market is rumbling and absent the implicit Government guarantee—which differs from the explicit guarantee we saw on Sunday—the question is simple:
Who will step in and save the day?
We've long discussed the laws of diminishing ammunition, offering that the last bullet would be pointed inward.
Using another analogy, leaks are springing all over the financial dam and there are only so many fingers to plug those holes, particularly after two fingers—the middle one on each hand—were used on Sunday.
Faith in the system--credibility, psychology, perception, social mood and risk appetite--is paramount here.
We've been watching it closely for a long time but the shelf life has seemingly shortened.
I'm not smart enough to know if this is the big one or simply a case of Turnaround Tuesday shaking the tape.
What I will say—and as we have said— is that credit problems persist, debt needs to be destroyed and equity markets aren’t pricing in that risk.
Either the former improves in time to absorb the year-end issuance or we're in for a harsh comeuppance that will remind the world that profiting is a privilege rather than a right.
Discipline over conviction as we find our way.
Random Thoughts:
Jeezums—WaMu (WM) down 20%, Lehman (LEH) off 35%... AIG (AIG) down 12%! It sure didn't take long from the psychology to shift from "First Down" to "Billions to go..."
I don't frighten easily—I'm a Raider fan and their performance last night was scary—but seeing what I'm seeing, with the VXO at 25, is freaking me out a bit.
Is someone at Goldman (GS) getting a call from someone in Washington about something like Lehman (LEH)?
Hey, I’m just asking… I mean, it’s not like this sorta stuff doesn’t happen!
Cough Bank America (BAC)-Countrywide Financial.
Cough JP Morgan (JPM)-Bear Stearns.
Cough Our children, Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE).
Don’t hate the player (hate the game) and don’t shoot the messenger (shoot a note to a loved one).
The ability not to trade is sometimes as important as trading ability.
There will be better times, easier tapes and tremendous opportunities in time. The goal is to be in a position to capitalize (pun intended) when the time comes.
You know what sector trades well? Consumer non-durables, as we've discussed of late (and highlighted in our ten themes). Campbell Soup (CPB) will report tomorrow and its margins will tell us if this thesis is mmm mmm good.
Keep half an eye peeled towards the dollar as it reacts to the level that Professor Fil noted yesterday.
What am I doing? I sold my General Electric (GE) and Wachovia (WB) puts (discussed yesterday) and took the trade in Coca-Cola (KO).
I'm generally in a "do less" mindset, which means smaller positions and tighter leashes. Hit it to quit it and preserve capital.
It's not sexy, I know, but then again, what is?
Breathe, Minyans, Breathe.
The doors to Festivus 2008 are officially open! Lock your spot for the critter trot as last year's soiree sold out. This is our annual event to commingle our professors, partners and Minyans while chowing down and listening to live music. The very best part? It's for the kids in the good name of my grandfather. |
| The Analog Guy
User ID: 74180
9/9/2008 6:17 PM
 | | Re: David W. Tice (Manages $2 Trillion) "Dow Jones will go to 5,708" | Quote |
[link to www.cafepress.com]
"If a man could understand all the horror of the lives of ordinary people who are turning round in a circle of insignificant interests and insignificant aims, if he could understand what they are losing, he would understand that there can be only one thing that is serious for him—to escape from the general law, to be free. What can be serious for a man in prison who is condemned to death? Only one thing: How to save himself, how to escape: nothing else is serious-Gurdjieff |
| Dr. Berkut
User ID: 500257
9/9/2008 6:21 PM | | Re: David W. Tice (Manages $2 Trillion) "Dow Jones will go to 5,708" | Quote |
For The Analog Guy:
"An Outlaw is someone who knows how to live outside the Law without breaking it." -Dylan |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 497054
9/9/2008 6:35 PM | | Re: David W. Tice (Manages $2 Trillion) "Dow Jones will go to 5,708" | Quote |
>>>
I don't frighten easily—I'm a Raider fan and their performance last night was scary—but seeing what I'm seeing, with the VXO at 25, is freaking me out a bit.
<<<<
hahahah a raider fan... getting smashed |
| aaron_o.o
rarely pure, never simple
User ID: 487215
9/9/2008 6:51 PM
 | | Re: David W. Tice (Manages $2 Trillion) "Dow Jones will go to 5,708" | Quote |
nice OP but i don't see anything on this on the net. help with a link plz?
"The real rulers in Washington are invisible and exercise power from behind the scenes"
- Justice Felix Frankfurter
"Behind the ostensible government sits enthroned an invisible government owing NO allegiance and acknowledging NO responsibility to the people." - Theodore Roosevelt, 1906
Pythagoras
...never allowed his neophytes to see him during the years of probation, but instructed them from behind a curtain in his cave
- H. P. Blavatsky (Isis Unveiled)
[link to www.youtube.com]
[link to www.myspace.com] |
| Berkut
User ID: 500257
9/10/2008 4:29 PM | | Re: David W. Tice (Manages $2 Trillion) "Dow Jones will go to 5,708" | Quote |
Nation's Bank is based in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Bank of America was based in San Francisco, California.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Bank of America Says Losses Shift to Commercial Loans
In what is certainly no surprise in this corner, Bank of America Says Losses Shift to Commercial Loans.
Bank of America Corp., the biggest U.S. consumer bank, said credit weakness is spreading to commercial borrowers from residential customers and loan losses probably will deepen in the third quarter.
Home builders unable to repay their loans are contributing to deterioration among commercial borrowers, said Brian Moynihan, head of the global corporate and investment banking unit, at a New York conference today. More than half of the Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank's $13.4 billion in loans to builders are considered troubled, 19 percent are not paying interest and losses are likely to mount, Moynihan said.
Bank of America's commercial loans were $335 billion as of June 30, and a home-builder portfolio that accounts for less than 4 percent "won't create major pain for us, but it's going up," he said. "It's not pretty."
It's Not Pretty
Indeed it's not pretty. Furthermore Bank of America (BAC) is mistaken if it thinks commercial woes will be contained to homebuilders. Even IF the woes remain limited to homebuilders, that would mean a likely $7+ billion in writeoffs.
Now what about financing of malls, retailers, office space, etc etc. A modest 10% writeoff across the board (highly likely IMO) would mean another $33 billion in writeoffs are coming from commercial real estate. And what about further consumer losses in credit cards and home equity lines?
The second tsunami (commercial real estate) has arrived even though losses from the first tsunami are still mounting.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
[link to globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com] |
| Berkut
User ID: 350133
9/15/2008 12:46 PM | | Re: David W. Tice (Manages $2 Trillion) "Dow Jones will go to 5,708" | Quote |
Monday, September 15, 2008
Fed's PDCF, TSLF Pawnshop Limits Increased; Section 23A Rules Violated
The Fed is acting to prevent a spillover from the Lehman collapse, taking a series of emergency liquidity actions explained in Fed braces markets for likely Lehman collapse.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve on Sunday launched a series of emergency measures to calm financial markets and ease any trading disruptions that could arise from a collapse of investment bank Lehman Brothers.
One of the biggest changes the Fed made was to accept equities as collateral for cash loans at one of its special credit facilities, the first time that the Fed has done so in its nearly 95-year history.
The most striking new Fed action was its decision to accept equities as collateral for cash loans under its Primary Dealer Credit Facility for investment banks. Until now, collateral was limited to investment-grade debt securities.
"The Fed's action allows dealers to pledge an asset class that is a significant part of the Street's securities positions," said Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist, Miller, Tabak & Co in New York, giving them significantly more access to loans if they need them.
The Fed also said it was increasing the total amount that it offers under a separate program that lends out liquid Treasury securities to $200 billion from $175 billion. It will also begin holding auctions under this program more frequently.
In a third step, it said it will temporarily allow commercial banks to extend liquid funds to their brokerage affiliates for assets that would normally be accepted in tri-party repurchase agreements.
It said this would be permitted only until January 30, 2009, apparently reflecting the Fed's hope that stressed repo markets would be operating more normally by then.
Bernanke Violates Federal Reserve Act Section 23A
Allowing banks to extend funds to their brokerage affiliates is in violation of Federal Reserve Act Section 23A.
Section 23A of the Federal Reserve Act ( Act ), originally enacted as part of the Banking Act of 1933, is designed to prevent the misuse of a bank's resources through non-arm's-length transactions with its affiliates and to limit the ability of a bank to transfer its federal subsidy to its affiliates.
Bernanke's willingness to break the law is in strict accordance with Fed Uncertainty Principle Corollary Number Four.
The Fed simply does not care whether its actions are illegal or not. The Fed is operating under the principle that it's easier to get forgiveness than permission. And forgiveness is just another means to the desired power grab it is seeking.
Supposedly the Fed "will temporarily allow commercial banks to extend liquid funds to their brokerage affiliates for assets that would normally be accepted in tri-party repurchase agreements."
For starters I doubt it will be temporary. But the main point is the Fed is taking steps that it knows to be blatantly illegal.
Banks Set Up $70 Billion Liquidity Fund
Bloomberg is reporting Banks, Firms Set Up $70 Billion Fund for Liquidity.
A group of banks including Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are putting up $70 billion for a borrowing fund aimed at providing liquidity.
The Federal Reserve also said it will accept other types of securities -- including equities -- as collateral for making direct loans to investment banks, according to a joint statement today. The firms plan to use the facility beginning this week.
Each participating financial firm will provide $7 billion to establish the fund and have the ability to borrow up to a third of the total.
Fed Puts Up $23 Billion
If 1/3 can be borrowed, rest assured 1/3 will be borrowed. That money will come from the Fed.
No government funds for Lehman?
I am sticking with a strict interpretation of Paulson's Claim Of "No Government Sponsorship".
The steps taken above, including the first ever action to swap equities, illegal actions in regards to Federal Reserve Act Section 23B, and the $23 billion liquidity provided by the Fed shows the claim "no government funds for Lehman" is patently false.
Broker Dealer Business Model Fundamentally Flawed
Roubini On Ripple Effects for Wall Street |
| Berkut
User ID: 350133
9/15/2008 12:49 PM | | Re: David W. Tice (Manages $2 Trillion) "Dow Jones will go to 5,708" | Quote |
Roubini: "All of the independent broker dealers are going to disappear. In March it was Bear Stearns. Tonight it was Lehman and Merrill Lynch. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs should go find a buyer tomorrow. The business model of broker dealers is fundamentally flawed. They cannot survive."
Bazooka Paulson
"If you have a bazooka in your pocket, and people know you have a bazooka, you may never have to take it out." (See Henry Paulson, Why Scare My Mother?)
It seems to me Paulson took out his bazooka, fired it, and shot Fannie Mae in the arse. After Fannie Mae blew sky high, Paulson was adamant not to fire another shot.
Indeed, Paulson didn't fire another shot but Bernanke did, with a number of questionable actions including one illegal one.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
[link to globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com] |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 503130
9/15/2008 12:50 PM | | Re: David W. Tice (Manages $2 Trillion) "Dow Jones will go to 5,708" | Quote |
they will prop it up till bushtard leaves office. |
| Berkut
User ID: 350133
9/15/2008 12:51 PM | | Re: David W. Tice (Manages $2 Trillion) "Dow Jones will go to 5,708" | Quote |
Henry Paulson, Why Scare My Mother?: Mark Gilbert (Update1)
Commentary by Mark Gilbert
Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- My mother called me on Sunday evening, in a bit of a tizzy. She'd heard on the BBC news that the U.S. government was spending ``trillions'' rescuing its mortgage market, putting the U.K. economy in danger.
I tried to reassure her, pointing out that the U.S. is still growing, even though other major economies have contracted or stagnated. Then she played her trump card. ``I'm used to hearing about millions and billions,'' she said. ``This is the first time they're talking in the trillions.''
It's your fault, U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. You have scared my mother in Liverpool, England, some 3,500 miles (5,700 kilometers) from your Washington office and a million miles from the world of high finance, with your hamfisted handling of the crisis at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Why did you wait until your Wall Street pals at Morgan Stanley confirmed what your regulators must (or should) have already known, or at least suspected -- that the mortgage giants were playing fast and loose with the accounting rules to paper over the cracks in their capital?
Worst of all, you bamboozled your nation's elected representatives, once in July when you claimed to have a plan to bluff your way through the crisis, and again in August when you pretended you wouldn't need to stump up other people's money to bulwark the housing market.
Bazooka Hank
The more I reflect on your July ``bazooka'' speech, the more convinced I am that it was an exercise in prestidigitation worthy of Harry Houdini. You used all of the tricks of a great orator, enunciating pithy, quotable comments that coated everyday language in the patina of intellectual substance.
``If you have a squirt gun in your pocket you may have to take it out,'' you told legislators two months ago when you were seeking the option to fire unlimited credit at the two government-sponsored enterprises. ``If you have a bazooka in your pocket, and people know you have a bazooka, you may never have to take it out.''
That's a great soundbite. It also has the most important attribute of a top-class piece of mumbleswerve -- with hindsight, the sentences are devoid of any useful content once you analyze the meaning behind the words. Unfortunately, none of us bothered to parse your comments properly at the time, deafened as we were by your apparent eloquence.
Packing Heat
Who was supposed to be deterred from doing what by the bazooka in your pocket? There are really only two sets of active participants in the Fannie/Freddie drama, the shareholders and the bond investors, and, as far as I can work out, neither would have been seduced by your bluff.
Maybe your implication was that the short sellers who had been driving Fannie and Freddie down would back off, worried that the threat you might use your newly granted ammunition would be enough to rally the shares. In the absence of some fresh initiative to solve the underlying housing crisis, however, there was no reason for investors to turn positive on the stock no matter what kind of heat you were packing.
Arguably, knowing that you had secured the executive power to rescue the pair just made it all the more likely that the stock would soon be worth almost zero, since shareholders were always first in line to be sacrificed in a bailout. And that's what happened, with both companies dropping more than 80 percent after your weekend bailout announcement.
Increasingly Explicit
Perhaps you were trying to suggest that fixed-income investors should be willing to lend to the pair at more reasonable interest rates in the bond market because Uncle Sam's implicit guarantee was becoming ever-more explicit.
The problem with that is the trade only works if you actually fire the bazooka and deliver the guarantee -- which you claimed you wouldn't need to do. Any money manager who took you at your word would continue to shun the debt. Fannie Mae was able to sell a record $7 billion of bonds yesterday, though only because you'd unholstered your weapon.
Frankly, I am struggling to come up with a third, more charitable, interpretation. So let's go with the uncharitable, Machiavellian suggestion -- that you were being deliberately economical with the truth in recent months.
``We have no plans to insert money into either of those two institutions,'' you said on Aug. 10, speaking from Beijing to NBC's ``Meet the Press'' broadcast.
I think you knew full well that you would have to put taxpayer dollars where your mouth was. The deterioration in the housing and mortgage markets shows no sign of slowing. Nothing new happened between Aug. 10, when you said abysmal earnings at Fannie and Freddie were ``not a surprise,'' and Sept. 7, when you took the twins into so-called conservatorship.
Prolonging the Pain
It seems to me that the bazooka speech was designed to secure pre-approval to do whatever you deemed necessary without actually asking for explicit permission for a particular course of action, so that you could move swiftly when the time came. By pretending that the situation might right itself without government intervention, you prolonged the pain and made a bad situation worse.
``I usually sleep pretty well,'' Paulson said earlier this week after revealing the details of the bailout. ``This is the first time in my career I've had trouble sleeping.''
I'd sympathize, Secretary Paulson, if it wasn't for the financial nightmares you're giving my mother.
(Mark Gilbert is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)
To contact the writer of this column: Mark Gilbert in London at magilbert@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: September 11, 2008 04:06 EDT |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 350133
9/15/2008 12:53 PM | | Re: David W. Tice (Manages $2 Trillion) "Dow Jones will go to 5,708" | Quote |
Monday, September 15, 2008
Pimco, Vanguard Are Biggest Bond Fund Losers in Lehman Collapse
It's payback time for betting on moral hazards as Pimco, Vanguard Are Biggest Bond Fund Losers in Lehman Collapse.
Pimco Advisors LP, Vanguard Group Inc. and Franklin Advisers Inc. are among the investment companies that will face losses of at least $86 billion stemming from the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the biggest bankruptcy in history.
Mutual fund companies' filings show they hold more than $143 billion of bonds, led by Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., manager of the world's biggest bond fund, and Valley Forge, Pennsylvania-based Vanguard, according to data compiled by Bloomberg as of June 30.
While bond investors will recover different amounts based on their ranking in Lehman's capital structure, models of credit default swaps assume lenders will recoup 40 percent of their loans overall in a bankruptcy. Investors may receive less than that, based on prices for Lehman's senior bonds of as little as 35 cents on the dollar from market reporting system Trace.
Pimco holds Lehman bonds in at least 12 of its funds, including the $134 billion Total Return Fund. Bill Gross, manager of the fund and co-chief investment officer of Pimco, was buying Lehman bonds as recently as June, Bloomberg data show.
John Woerth, head of public relations at Vanguard, said the company holds Lehman bonds among the $450 billion of fixed income it manages.
New York-based Lehman, which filed for protection from creditors today, owes its 10 largest unsecured creditors more than $157 billion, according to the Chapter 11 filing today in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in New York. The largest single creditor is Aozora Bank Ltd. in Tokyo, with $463 million in a bank loan. Other top creditors include Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd., owed $382 million, and a Citigroup Inc. unit based in Hong Kong, owed an estimated $275 million, according to the filing.
Lehman listed total debts of $613 billion and $639 billion of assets in the filing.
Axa SA, Europe's second-biggest insurer, and unnamed affiliates, own 7.25 percent of Lehman's equity, according to the filing. Clearbridge Advisers LLC, the asset manager that Baltimore-based Legg Mason Inc. acquired from Citigroup Inc. in 2005, held 6.33 percent, according to the filing. Boston-based FMR LLC, the parent of Fidelity, the world's largest mutual fund company, held 5.9 percent, the filing said.
The Fed As Clearinghouse?
According to this Bloomberg video Bill Gross Wants Fed To Act As Clearinghouse. I say the markets should fend for themselves, the Fed has done enough damage already.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
[link to globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com] |
| Berkut
User ID: 350133
9/15/2008 2:22 PM | | Re: David W. Tice (Manages $2 Trillion) "Dow Jones will go to 5,708" | Quote |
George Washington's Blog
(Click Here for Part 1)
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Why The Fed Allowed Derivatives Trading on a Sunday
In an unprecedented move, the Fed and the International Swaps and Derivatives Association allowed derivatives trading today, on a Sunday, to "reduce risk associated with a potential Lehman . . . bankruptcy."
Lehman holds $ 800 billion in derivatives.
As the very even-keeled and level-headed chief executive of Pimco, the world's biggest bond fund, said:
"This is an extremely, and I stress extremely, rare event. It also speaks to the more general notion that, in today's highly disrupted financial markets, the unthinkable is thinkable."
What is the "unthinkable" he's referring to?
Another great depression. Perhaps even a world-wide depression.
To see why derivatives are the key to the financial crisis in the U.S. and the world, and why the Fed allowed derivatives trading today, read this.
Update: Bloomberg today writes:
"Bond-default risk soared worldwide as the collapse of Lehman Brother Holdings Inc. sparked concern than the $62 trillion credit-derivatives market will unravel |
| Dr. Berkut
User ID: 503919
9/15/2008 4:14 PM | | Re: David W. Tice (Manages $2 Trillion) "Dow Jones will go to 5,708" | Quote |
 
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX - Add to Portfolio - Discuss .DJI
10,917.51
-504.48 (-4.42%)Sep 15 - Close Open: 11,416.37 Mkt Cap: - P/E: - Dividend: -
High: 11,416.45 52Wk High: 14,279.96 F P/E: - Yield: -
Low: 10,928.99 52Wk Low: 10,731.96 Beta: - Shares: -
Vol: 430.41M Avg Vol: 186.28M EPS: - Inst. Own: -
Compare Settings
Link to chart Historical Prices |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 503919
9/15/2008 4:23 PM | | Re: David W. Tice (Manages $2 Trillion) "Dow Jones will go to 5,708" | Quote |
As of 9/15/08 this thread has had 500 hits.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Fed Sponsored Poker Party Morphs Into "Old Maid"
All weekend long I monitored the ongoing high stakes poker game sponsored by the Fed, the Treasury, and the SEC. Progress of the game appears below for historical reference. A quick summary will follow.
Game Summary
Fed, the Treasury, and the SEC were acting as the dealers (or carnival barkers if you prefer). Merrill Lynch (MER), J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), Barclays, and others were all players at the table. Lehman (LEH) was not a player. Lehman was the pot.
The role of the carnival barker was to get the amount bet as high as possible. Dealers hoped to goad Barclays and/or the Bank of America to go "all in". Both refused. Numerous side games developed and a deal was struck between Merrill Lynch and Bank of America. Another side game is still in play with AIG begging the Fed for cash.
At midnight, in the Cinderella Pumpkin Room, the game morphed into The Old Maid.
The Old Maid
Inquiring minds just might be asking "Who is kissing the old maid?" It's a good question too. The answer can be found in Pimco, Vanguard Are Biggest Bond Fund Losers in Lehman Collapse.
Pimco holds Lehman bonds in at least 12 of its funds, including the $134 billion Total Return Fund. Bill Gross, manager of the fund and co-chief investment officer of Pimco, was buying Lehman bonds as recently as June, Bloomberg data show.
John Woerth, head of public relations at Vanguard, said the company holds Lehman bonds among the $450 billion of fixed income it manages.
Axa SA, Europe's second-biggest insurer, and unnamed affiliates, own 7.25 percent of Lehman's equity, according to the filing.
US Treasuries Rally
Interestingly, the cards nearly everyone thought to be old maid cards (treasuries) are rallying strongly. I continue to expect new all-time lows in yield on the 10 year notes and long bond.
Also of note today, the US dollar index and the Euro are both flat on the day. Inquiring minds may wish to read US Dollar Rally Not Over Yet for further commentary and charts.
Fun While It Lasted
Professor Kevin Depew was on top of the call this morning with a very pertinent reminder in It Was Fun While It Lasted.
The most important thing equities investors and traders should keep in mind here is that this debt destruction will be an ongoing process. It is tempting to see the Lehman (LEH) bankruptcy, the Bank of America (BAC) and Merrill (MER) deal, as signposts marking the culmination of a financial stress event They are not. They are merely symptoms of an ongoing debt crisis.
By allowing Lehman to fail, the Fed has, perhaps inadvertently, embraced debt deflation and even contributed to it. The net result of the failure is more credit contraction and debt destruction.
Some will argue that by adding $25 billion to the now $200 billion Treasury lending facility, accepting equities as collateral and by cutting short term interest rates, which the FOMC will almost certainly do tomorrow, the Fed is making more credit available, but that credit is being absorbed by the financial system so quickly that the net result is a still continuing credit contraction.
Inquiring minds will want to take a look at Kevin's article. It's an interesting read comparing jellyfish to financials.
The Ongoing Credit Destruction
The key point, and one I have been harping on for quite some time, is that credit is being destroyed far faster than the Fed is monetizing. This is deflation, and it is happening right here right now. There is no other logical way of looking at it.
Those playing Old Maid, betting that debt could or would perpetually be bailed out by the Fed and that treasuries would sink as a consequence, made the wrong bet. They are now kissing the Old Maid.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
[link to globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com]
Keep drinking the Kool-Aid folks. |
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