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Hurricane Watch Possible from Eastern Long Island to Maine This Weekend

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The_Venerable
User ID: 412220
9/26/2008 5:37 AM
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Hurricane Watch Possible from Eastern Long Island to Maine This Weekend

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Tropical Storm Kyle has strengthened this morning, with maximum sustained winds now at 60mph. Wind sheer, currently at 20 knots and keeping the cyclone from strengthening further, should persist for several more hours, but will eventually decrease later today. Additionally, Kyle will be moving over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream for the next 48 hours. The weaker shear and warm waters should allow the system to strengthen, and Kyle will likely become a hurricane Friday or Saturday.

Tropical Storm Kyle is currently moving north at 10 knots, located roughly 500 miles SSW of Bermuda. A tropical storm watch has already been issued for Bermuda; however, the forecast, with high confidence, has Kyle moving more to the northwest starting today, and then back to the north later this weekend. This should keep Kyle to the west of Bermuda, although rough seas will likely impact the island.

By the end of the weekend, Kyle is expected to start curving back to the northeast. Exactly when the storm curves could determine where, or if, it impacts the eastern coast of the U.S. Right now, the models don't agree very well in this regard; however, I believe the storm will not recurve until later then expected by most of the models. The model consensus has Kyle remaining off the coast of the U.S., but I believe a landfall from Long Island to Cape Cod, much more likely in the Cape Cod area, is quite possible.

Intensity wise, the forecast is for Kyle to strengthen to a Cat 1 hurricane, and IF it makes U.S. landfall, it is forecast to make landfall as a Cat 1, although one of the instensity models has it stronger than that. In any case, it should be a Cat 1 or Cat 2 as it approaches near the New England Coast. By Sunday, Kyle will move north of the Gulf Stream's warm waters, and weakening will occur, but it is forecast increase forward speed, making its time over cooler waters shorter, and therefore minimizing any decrease in strength. All of this together leads me to believe that even if it does reach Cat 2 strength, it will probably be a Cat 1 hurricane as it approaches near the New England coast by Sunday.

Interests along or near the northeast U.S. coast should closely monitor this system, as a Hurricane Watch is possible this weekend, as early as Saturday night.

The_Venerable
User ID: 412220 (OP)
9/26/2008 6:26 AM

Re: Hurricane Watch Possible from Eastern Long Island to Maine This Weekend	Quote

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