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Hurricane Norbert- May intensify into a Cat 4-hitting NM by Sunday

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Earth420
User ID: 517986
10/5/2008 12:21 PM

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Hurricane Norbert- May intensify into a Cat 4-hitting NM by Sunday

Quote

800 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2008

NORBERT'S CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION WITH THE CENTER NOW SITUATED BENEATH A CDO FEATURE.
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB BUT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...AT 50 KT...AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN. NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WARM
WATERS AND WITHIN A RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF INTENSIFICATION REMAINS UNCLEAR WITH A
SPREAD OF NEARLY 55 KT IN THE VARIOUS INTENSITY MODELS AT DAY 3.
FURTHER COMPLICATING THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE UNCERTAINTY IN
FORWARD SPEED THAT ARISES AT THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS NORBERT
APPROACHES COOLERS WATERS AND A STABLE AIRMASS NORTH OF 20 DEGREES
NORTH LATITUDE. GIVEN THE PRESENT TREND IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NORBERT REACHING PEAK INTENSITY SOONER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM AND
GFDL MODELS.

5 day

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

Peace

Earth420
User ID: 518185
10/5/2008 5:08 PM

Re: Hurricane Norbert- May intensify into a Cat 4-hitting NM by Sunday

Quote

NORBERT IS FORECAST
TO BE OVER WARM WATERS AND WITHIN A RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD ALLOW INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...THERE CONTINUES TO BE
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS INTENSITY MODELS WITH THE
GFDL AND HWRF FORECASTING NORBERT TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WHILE
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW CONSIDERABLY LESS STRENGTHENING.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN BEFORE BUT IS STILL
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

Peace

Earth420
User ID: 518185
10/5/2008 5:09 PM

Re: Hurricane Norbert- May intensify into a Cat 4-hitting NM by Sunday	Quote
[link to www.ssd.noaa.gov] Check out the sat... is that another disturbance "chasing" Norbert but yet to be named? Peace

Anonymous Coward
User ID: 514132
10/5/2008 5:26 PM

Re: Hurricane Norbert- May intensify into a Cat 4-hitting NM by Sunday	Quote
that shits going out to sea wtf

Earth420
User ID: 518185
10/5/2008 5:30 PM

Re: Hurricane Norbert- May intensify into a Cat 4-hitting NM by Sunday	Quote
If you look at the 5 day it may very well stay over water for awhile but go straight up Gulf of Mexico, Calli... the longer it can stay over water the more it can intensify before landfall, and -or just skim by the coast without slamming into it, too soon to tell exact course though... Peace

Earth420
User ID: 518185
10/5/2008 5:34 PM

Re: Hurricane Norbert- May intensify into a Cat 4-hitting NM by Sunday

Quote

[link to www.planetark.com]
MEXICO: October 6, 2008

Tropical Storm Forms Off Mexico's Pacific Coast
MEXICO CITY - Tropical Storm Norbert formed off Mexico's Pacific coast and was expected to turn into a hurricane early this week, the US National Hurricane Center said on Sunday.

Norbert is headed toward Baja California but is not forecast to make a direct hit on the peninsula.
The storm was located about 215 miles (345 km) south of the popular resort of Zihuatanejo and was moving northwest with sustained winds of 60 mph (95 kph) and higher gusts.

"Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and Norbert could become a hurricane by tomorrow," the Miami-based center said.

Peace

Anonymous Coward
User ID: 518092
10/5/2008 5:35 PM

Re: Hurricane Norbert- May intensify into a Cat 4-hitting NM by Sunday	Quote
it's going to be a busy week....

jesse
User ID: 518525
10/6/2008 2:35 AM

Re: Hurricane Norbert- May intensify into a Cat 4-hitting NM by Sunday

Quote

This could be one for calli to look out for... If this forms into a cat 3 or higer when/if it hits the cooler waters of north mexico/socal it will weaken very solw.. compared to if it was a cat 1 going over cooler waters... This could go parellel to land until it gets to Los Angeles (as LA pokes out a litle).. Very far Fetched but realy this could be a real issue for LA if not this one.. it will hapen one day.. And as LA gets very little rain imagin what just a cat 1 would do to this city.. Even a tropical depresion would be a disaster.. if a cat 1 hit LA it would worse then IKE.. KEEP AN EYE OUT.. IT COULD BE CLOSE!

Me114

aka ladynada
User ID: 323570
10/8/2008 4:52 AM

Re: Hurricane Norbert- May intensify into a Cat 4-hitting NM by Sunday	Quote
WAKE UP CALIFORNIA! =+=+=+= The TWO Witnesses are Mom and Dad & they're coming to give YOU a SPANKING [link to heartdaughter.com] Official Elijah Blog [link to heartdaughter.com]

no video==no doom
User ID: 519754
10/8/2008 4:54 AM

Re: Hurricane Norbert- May intensify into a Cat 4-hitting NM by Sunday

Quote

Hurricane Norbert

Hurricane Norbert continues to strengthen with top winds estimated to be near 105 miles per hour and was located about 500 miles south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico as of 8 p.m. PDT. It is moving to the west-northwest near 10 miles per hour, and this general motion is expected to continue on Wednesday with a turn to the nortwest expected on Thursday.

Norbert could move toward Baja California later in the week or over the weekend, so interests there should monitor the progress of the system.

[link to www.weather.com]

Earth420
User ID: 521436
10/9/2008 10:05 AM

Re: Hurricane Norbert- May intensify into a Cat 4-hitting NM by Sunday

Quote

NORBERT IS FORECAST TO CROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AS A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BUT A FASTER WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER MAINLAND MEXICO.

THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE
CORE OF THE HURRICANE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ON SATURDAY. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING THE CYCLONE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MAINLAND MEXICO AND
SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONLY THE GFS MODEL INSISTS ON
WEAKENING THE CYCLONE WHILE KEEPING IT STATIONARY JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
REALISTIC AT THIS TIME.

HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

5 day

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

Hitting NM by Sunday, now thats a turn!

Peace

Earth420
User ID: 521436
10/9/2008 10:10 AM

Re: Hurricane Norbert- May intensify into a Cat 4-hitting NM by Sunday	Quote
Sat [link to www.ssd.noaa.gov] Peace

Earth420
User ID: 521436
10/9/2008 10:22 AM

Re: Hurricane Norbert- May intensify into a Cat 4-hitting NM by Sunday

Quote

[link to www.planetark.com]

MEXICO CITY - Hurricane Norbert strengthened into a Category 3 major storm in the Pacific ocean and headed on Wednesday toward Mexico's Baja California peninsula.

Norbert was packing winds of 125 mph (205 kph) and was located about 460 miles (740 km) from Mexico's northwestern coast and expected to hit land this weekend, forecasters at the US national hurricane center said.
It is the second major storm to threaten Mexico in recent days after tropical storm Marco pounded Mexico's other coast in the Atlantic on Tuesday, dumping heavy rains and causing flooding in the state of Veracruz. But Marco caused no major damage to the country's oil and gas installations.

Mexico's main oil export ports remained open and there were no reports of people injured or missing from Marco.

Norbert could strengthen into a Category 4 hurricane over the next couple of days. It is expected to make landfall north of the city of La Paz, likely missing a direct hit on the beach resort of Los Cabos a popular destination for US vacationers.

"Fluctuations in strength are possible during the next day or so but Norbert is expected to remain a major hurricane during the next 48 hours," the hurricane center said in a statement.

Peace

Anonymous Coward
User ID: 518671
10/9/2008 10:27 AM

Re: Hurricane Norbert- May intensify into a Cat 4-hitting NM by Sunday	Quote
I heard a prediction that Omar will be a devastating one. Let's see if those with the weather machines will make that one come true.

Anonymous Coward
User ID: 521965
10/9/2008 10:50 PM

Re: Hurricane Norbert- May intensify into a Cat 4-hitting NM by Sunday

Quote

[link to s489.photobucket.com]

It now looks like Hurricane Norbert will make landfall at about noon Saturday in the Magdalena Bay area of Baja California Sur. This is good news for travelers to Cabo San Lucas, but not great news for visitors to and residents of La Paz on the peninsula's east shore.

Norbert's center probably will pass to the north of La Paz, but its impacts will be felt in the form of wind and rain.

Here is the latest three-day forecast from the National Hurricane Center:

NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. NORBERT IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH.WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORBERT IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER. AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES.

Earth420
User ID: 522484
10/10/2008 9:53 AM

Re: Hurricane Norbert- May intensify into a Cat 4-hitting NM by Sunday

Quote

ALL MODELS BRING THE
CORE OF THE HURRICANE TO THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT
36 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS
THAT NORBERT WILL BECOME DECOUPLED DUE TO SHEAR AND THAT IS WHEN
THE MODELS DIFFER IN THE FORWARD SPEED. HOWEVER...BY
THEN...NORBERT SHOULD BE A WEAKENING CYCLONE WITH THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER RACING NORTHEASTWARD. MOISTURE FROM NORBERT COULD BRING
RAINS TO PORTION OF WESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.

Peace

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