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the lowdown on polls: not what they seem!! As Maine Goes...

 
Dread Pirate Roberts
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10/26/2008 09:35 PM
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the lowdown on polls: not what they seem!! As Maine Goes...
Interesting thing about polls, from Virginia Virtucon, a VA political blog. I liked the part about Maine, I used to live there and they are very proud of the "As Maine Goes, So Goes the Nation"...The phrase described Maine's reputation as a bellwether state for presidential elections. I did not write this, it was contributed by Ignatius

Interesting tidbit on polls
[link to virginiavirtucon.wordpress.com]

I was having dinner a night ago with a friend of mine who is a statistician for a well-regarded private polling company. They do some work for Republicans in California, but most of the work they do is for Democrats or Democrat-leaning operations (Unions, etc.). Anyway, her shop was retained to do a few Presidential polls for targetted states on behalf of a union so the union could decide where to spend their ad dollars for the last week. They did Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Missouri. After mocking the hell out of the voter id spreads used by Rassmussen, Zogby, etc. (and this is coming from a committed Dem who will be voting for Barry O) she said the results of their polling lead her to believe that McCain will definitely win FL, OH, NC, MO and NV.

She says Obama definitely wins New Mexico. She said that Colorado and New Hampshire were absolute dead heats. She said she thinks there is a 55% chance Obama holds on in Pennsylvania and a 75% chance McCain wins Virginia. She absolutely laughed at the public polls showing Obama leading Virginia–and pointed out that all of those polls rely on Dem turnout being +4 and as much as +7, when in 2006, Republicans actually had the advantage by +3. She also pointed out that the numbers for Obama in SWVA look absolutely awful and that McCain is running 10 points better then Allen did in NoVa.

Anyway, her companies conclusion is that the election will come down to Colorado, New Hampshire and the Republican leaning district in Maine, which in her opinion might very well decide the Presidency (apparently the district in Nebraska that Obama thought he might be able to get is now off the table). She said she has very little doubt that the public polling is part of a “concerted voter suppression effort” by the MSM. She said IBD/TIPP was the only outfit doing public polling that was “worth a bucket of warm piss”.
"From that time Jesus began to preach and say, "Repent, for the kingdom of heaven is at hand." Matthew 4:17
Mr. Predictor
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10/26/2008 09:36 PM

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Re: the lowdown on polls: not what they seem!! As Maine Goes...
Interesting thing about polls, from Virginia Virtucon, a VA political blog. I liked the part about Maine, I used to live there and they are very proud of the "As Maine Goes, So Goes the Nation"...The phrase described Maine's reputation as a bellwether state for presidential elections. I did not write this, it was contributed by Ignatius

Interesting tidbit on polls
[link to virginiavirtucon.wordpress.com]

I was having dinner a night ago with a friend of mine who is a statistician for a well-regarded private polling company. They do some work for Republicans in California, but most of the work they do is for Democrats or Democrat-leaning operations (Unions, etc.). Anyway, her shop was retained to do a few Presidential polls for targetted states on behalf of a union so the union could decide where to spend their ad dollars for the last week. They did Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Missouri. After mocking the hell out of the voter id spreads used by Rassmussen, Zogby, etc. (and this is coming from a committed Dem who will be voting for Barry O) she said the results of their polling lead her to believe that McCain will definitely win FL, OH, NC, MO and NV.

She says Obama definitely wins New Mexico. She said that Colorado and New Hampshire were absolute dead heats. She said she thinks there is a 55% chance Obama holds on in Pennsylvania and a 75% chance McCain wins Virginia. She absolutely laughed at the public polls showing Obama leading Virginia–and pointed out that all of those polls rely on Dem turnout being +4 and as much as +7, when in 2006, Republicans actually had the advantage by +3. She also pointed out that the numbers for Obama in SWVA look absolutely awful and that McCain is running 10 points better then Allen did in NoVa.

Anyway, her companies conclusion is that the election will come down to Colorado, New Hampshire and the Republican leaning district in Maine, which in her opinion might very well decide the Presidency (apparently the district in Nebraska that Obama thought he might be able to get is now off the table). She said she has very little doubt that the public polling is part of a “concerted voter suppression effort” by the MSM. She said IBD/TIPP was the only outfit doing public polling that was “worth a bucket of warm piss”.
 Quoting: Dread Pirate Roberts


I also think if it is close, it will come down to Colorado
6473madburger

Obama Pledge

I pledge allegiance to the unions
And to civil unrest in America
And to the Republic
I plan to destroy
Two Nations
Under funded
Divided
With misery and poverty for all

“Barack Obama thinks his job is to lead the mob, not the country.”
Dread Pirate Roberts (OP)

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10/26/2008 10:04 PM
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Re: the lowdown on polls: not what they seem!! As Maine Goes...
Interesting thing about polls, from Virginia Virtucon, a VA political blog. I liked the part about Maine, I used to live there and they are very proud of the "As Maine Goes, So Goes the Nation"...The phrase described Maine's reputation as a bellwether state for presidential elections. I did not write this, it was contributed by Ignatius

Interesting tidbit on polls
[link to virginiavirtucon.wordpress.com]

I was having dinner a night ago with a friend of mine who is a statistician for a well-regarded private polling company. They do some work for Republicans in California, but most of the work they do is for Democrats or Democrat-leaning operations (Unions, etc.). Anyway, her shop was retained to do a few Presidential polls for targetted states on behalf of a union so the union could decide where to spend their ad dollars for the last week. They did Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Missouri. After mocking the hell out of the voter id spreads used by Rassmussen, Zogby, etc. (and this is coming from a committed Dem who will be voting for Barry O) she said the results of their polling lead her to believe that McCain will definitely win FL, OH, NC, MO and NV.

She says Obama definitely wins New Mexico. She said that Colorado and New Hampshire were absolute dead heats. She said she thinks there is a 55% chance Obama holds on in Pennsylvania and a 75% chance McCain wins Virginia. She absolutely laughed at the public polls showing Obama leading Virginia–and pointed out that all of those polls rely on Dem turnout being +4 and as much as +7, when in 2006, Republicans actually had the advantage by +3. She also pointed out that the numbers for Obama in SWVA look absolutely awful and that McCain is running 10 points better then Allen did in NoVa.

Anyway, her companies conclusion is that the election will come down to Colorado, New Hampshire and the Republican leaning district in Maine, which in her opinion might very well decide the Presidency (apparently the district in Nebraska that Obama thought he might be able to get is now off the table). She said she has very little doubt that the public polling is part of a “concerted voter suppression effort” by the MSM. She said IBD/TIPP was the only outfit doing public polling that was “worth a bucket of warm piss”.


I also think if it is close, it will come down to Colorado
 Quoting: Mr. Predictor

I do not believe ANY polls. Look what happened to Obama in NH in the primaries. Hillary's still stunned. I figure...just vote
"From that time Jesus began to preach and say, "Repent, for the kingdom of heaven is at hand." Matthew 4:17
Anonymous Coward
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10/26/2008 10:14 PM
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Re: the lowdown on polls: not what they seem!! As Maine Goes...
In a real election Obama in a landslide.

Maine supported Gore. Hope that doesn't repeat.
Dread Pirate Roberts (OP)

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10/26/2008 10:27 PM
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Re: the lowdown on polls: not what they seem!! As Maine Goes...
In a real election Obama in a landslide.

Maine supported Gore. Hope that doesn't repeat.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 508652

Maine is the only state to have elected an Independent governor. They are independent minded, for sure. I'm not seeing a landslide. This nation is too right-central to ever go for someone so obviously radical.
"From that time Jesus began to preach and say, "Repent, for the kingdom of heaven is at hand." Matthew 4:17
Anonymous Coward
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10/27/2008 12:42 AM
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Re: the lowdown on polls: not what they seem!! As Maine Goes...
I dislike Obama.
Anonymous Coward
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10/27/2008 12:45 AM
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Re: the lowdown on polls: not what they seem!! As Maine Goes...
the problem is how many people really come out and vote. one poll showed 35 percent of democrats wont vote this year. One poll shows obama up by 14 points. several show it a dead heat. Polls have been off for 8 years now. The only poll I believe are the final votes that get cast election night.
Mr. Predictor
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10/27/2008 12:46 AM

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Re: the lowdown on polls: not what they seem!! As Maine Goes...
I dislike Obama.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 529006


after 1/21/09 that will not be allowed
6473madburger

Obama Pledge

I pledge allegiance to the unions
And to civil unrest in America
And to the Republic
I plan to destroy
Two Nations
Under funded
Divided
With misery and poverty for all

“Barack Obama thinks his job is to lead the mob, not the country.”
Anonymous Coward
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10/27/2008 12:48 AM
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Re: the lowdown on polls: not what they seem!! As Maine Goes...
I dislike Obama.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 529006


Me too.
Anonymous Coward
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10/27/2008 12:48 AM
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Re: the lowdown on polls: not what they seem!! As Maine Goes...
[link to modern-us-history.suite101.com]

Accuracy in presidential election polling can provide accurate predictions within limitations. However, significant historical errors haunt the opinion polling industry.
Fool
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10/27/2008 12:48 AM
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Re: the lowdown on polls: not what they seem!! As Maine Goes...
I know a friend of a friend in a better company than your friend's company that says that company is a failure because of employees like your friend

... yeah

...
Anonymous Coward
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10/27/2008 12:49 AM
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Re: the lowdown on polls: not what they seem!! As Maine Goes...
I dislike Obama.


Me too.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 513042

I don't dislike him, I just don't trust him.
Count Me OUT
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10/27/2008 11:49 AM
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Re: the lowdown on polls: not what they seem!! As Maine Goes...
pre-election polling is simply a manifestation of this nation's OCD/ADD - utterly worthless

hf