Gallup: NEW FIRST TIME VOTERS SAME AS 2004 ~ YET POLLSTERS ARE WEIGHING POLLS AT 10% INCREASE.

This is quite important considering that the race only has a 5 point spread and as many as 10% undecided.

If the polls are weighed heavy because of new voter registrations that dont exist..McCain could be leading.

I love it..

:pollreact:

Give it up. Accept that you and your's are on the way out. We don't like your ways. They lead to death and destruction.

I can't wait till the day after the election around here. Will be interesting to say the least.

I got the Dom chillin, PAC.

dude, palin doesn't even like mccain anymore. what are you fighting for? best just to wait 4 years and try again.

I cant wait.

Thanks

10% increase in what. Pollsters are saying there are 10% more registered democrats than republicans. you can just look at the turnout during the primaries and see that. you're seriously delusional if you think rush limbaugh turned out more voters than obama or clinton.

I doubt pac will show his face :pussycat: after the election.

That is not what Gallup THE POLLSTER is saying.

yeah he's saying that 13% of registered voters are voting for the first time, about the same as in 2004. you guys are acting like that is somehow throwing all the polls off and mccain is really in the lead.

Actually, that cat's face in PNAC's avatar is exactly how HIS face is going to look like on Nov 5th.

:lghtrs:

We shall see.

All of the pollsters "weigh" their polls according to what is going on in the election.

All of them have said that they are weighing them higher for dems because of the recored number of "NEW" registered Democrat voters this year. They also weigh them because of Obama being black and they weigh them because they predict a bigger than average turn out for Democrats than in 2004.

That is how they come up with their poll numbers and predictions.

This new Poll from Gallup is showing that their formula is wrong because ACORN HAS BEEN REGISTERING MORE NEW REGISTERED VOTERS THAN THERE ACTUALLY ARE.

For two years all you have been hearing about is all the new youth that is going to vote for Obama and the new registered voters the Obama campaign is bringing to Election day.

Well, truth be told. It all a lie. There are no more new voters this election than the last one.

All the pollsters will now get serious about reporting the truth as we get closer to election day. Even though they are all in the tank for Obama,,,they all want to be the one who "nails" it. Wait for Nov 3rd and 4th to get a better idea.

Well lets do a little math here. 121mil people voted in 2004. 13% were newly registered so thats about 15.6 mil new voters most of which went to Kerry. Bush still won by about 3 mil votes. 62mil - 59 mil
Now lets add another 13% on top of the 121mil. That would be another 15.6mil new voters mostly going for Obama this time.

---
from gallup
First-time voters show solid support for Obama, 65% to 31%. That is a better showing for the Democratic candidate than in 2004, when first-time voters favored John Kerry over George W. Bush by 55% to 41%.
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So Obama gets an extra 10mil voters to mccains 5 mil. Assumming that everyone who voted for bush still votes for mccain (which is highly unlikely considering bushs approval rating) and Obama gets all of Kerry's voters (which is likely considering his solid lead in all states Kerry won in 04) Obama would finish with 69 mil votes to mcbushs 67 mil votes.

This is the worst case scenario. Obama will most likely win by much more than 2mil votes especially when you consider that 10 states bush won comfortably Obama is leading or tied.

Look at the Gallup traditional poll today:

[link to www.gallup.com]

so what, that doesn't include any of the 13% of first time voters.

That is the traditional model, fucktard, which does include the new voters.

2 points.

Yes but with the traditional model for likely voters a lot of new voters won't vote. Traditionally likely voters are over a certain age and voted in the last election and sometimes the last 2 elections. There are going to be millions of more enthusiastic voters who will get out and vote for Obama than Kerry. And there will be less voters who will turn out for mccain. bush ran up high numbers with evangelicals who were enthusiastic to vote for him, and vote for a ban on gay marriage.
I guarantee Obama's numbers will be much higher than Kerry's and mccains will be much lower than bushs.
with bush's 25% approval rating he wouldn't even get the same turn out as he did 4 years ago.