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Holy crap -- cargo shipping has *collapsed* in a massive way...

 
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 342843
United States
10/30/2008 01:26 PM
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Holy crap -- cargo shipping has *collapsed* in a massive way...
Check out this chart of the Baltic Dry Index, which measures shipping activity around the world:

[link to i66.photobucket.com]


It has absolutely plunged from a peak this year (May) of 11,750 down to 885 this month! That's a ginormous drop!

The BDI is considered a good indicator of future economic activity, because much of the material being shipped are raw resources to make things. If those resources aren't shipping, then nobody is making (or selling or buying) anything.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 342843
United States
10/30/2008 01:28 PM
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Re: Holy crap -- cargo shipping has *collapsed* in a massive way...
Here's another chart of BDI, going back to 2001.

Look at the total cliff dive it has taken in the last few months:

[link to www.investmenttools.com]

Amazing.
gizmojo

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10/30/2008 01:43 PM
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Re: Holy crap -- cargo shipping has *collapsed* in a massive way...
holy crap
You shall know the TRUTH, and the TRUTH shall set you free.
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rikerglp (at) gmail.com
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Ostria

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Greece
10/30/2008 01:45 PM
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Re: Holy crap -- cargo shipping has *collapsed* in a massive way...
And this is just the beginning...
Anonymous Coward
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United States
10/30/2008 01:45 PM
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Re: Holy crap -- cargo shipping has *collapsed* in a massive way...
TIME TO BUY!!!!!!

YEE HAW!!!!

I am loading up da shippers. The world has NOT STOPPED.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 488191
United States
10/30/2008 01:46 PM
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Re: Holy crap -- cargo shipping has *collapsed* in a massive way...
How long till the shelves go empty?
Esophrenic

User ID: 501302
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10/30/2008 01:47 PM
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Re: Holy crap -- cargo shipping has *collapsed* in a massive way...
yet the guberment statistics show a "surprising" increase in business activity.

do they think anybody believes their lies anymore?
Yours Truly!
19.47™
User ID: 534000
United Kingdom
10/30/2008 01:50 PM
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Re: Holy crap -- cargo shipping has *collapsed* in a massive way...
I forsee a most grave and serious shortage of plastic Christmas tree gee gaws this year.
Anonymous Coward
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United States
10/30/2008 01:53 PM
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Re: Holy crap -- cargo shipping has *collapsed* in a massive way...
After Xmas retailers will not be restocking warehouses. Bare minimum stocks in inventory. Unemployment will go up and the economic spiral will take us into a depression.
Enigma

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10/30/2008 01:55 PM
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Re: Holy crap -- cargo shipping has *collapsed* in a massive way...
Makes you wonder what you ought to be buying you will not be able to find next year...

hmmm....

what do I need to add to my preps?

if it's all stuff from China, then I have no worries...

what to buy...
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 380667
United States
10/30/2008 02:01 PM
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Re: Holy crap -- cargo shipping has *collapsed* in a massive way...
How long till the shelves go empty?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 488191


Exactly. This is what to watch for.

I work for a sportswear company...every time I go to
work, I buy something....I buy socks, good tee-shirts,
warm, practical clothes and shoes, etc. I am buying for
myself and for my family members.

Because my co-workers right now think I'm goofy because
I buy something...but they do not realize that either
we'll stop seeing merch on the shelves or we won't have
the means to buy it or go to buy it. Americans have been
conditioned to seeing full shelves at the malls and at
the grocery stores. When this begins to happen, those
people will not understand or realize what is happening.
A few weeks ago I needed to buy a basic, plain women's
brown belt. Either the stores had crap or they were
way too expensive...or they simply had nothing to choose
from like in year's past.

What I'm wondering is: What is it going to be like
after Christmas? The 4th quarter earnings are going to
be horrible. This will domino effect. None of those
merchants will buy because they have limited funds and
because they need to sell the stuff they didn't sell at
Christmas time. I don't know the time frame but the shelves will definately start to go empty. I also think,
depending on what section of the country you are living...
some are seeing it before others are.
Anonymous Coward
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United States
10/30/2008 02:01 PM
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Re: Holy crap -- cargo shipping has *collapsed* in a massive way...
Started in Spain months ago.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 380667
United States
10/30/2008 02:04 PM
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Re: Holy crap -- cargo shipping has *collapsed* in a massive way...
Could this thread be pinned? I think it is an
excellent topic.
falldown

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10/30/2008 02:07 PM
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Re: Holy crap -- cargo shipping has *collapsed* in a massive way...
Yeah, but how's it compare to the 80s-90s, before "irrational exuberance"? Is it because of a collapse in demand (although I'm sure some is), or because shippers went overboard in better times?
~
~
"He who does not understand your silence will probably not understand your words." ~Elbert Hubbard
Anonymous Coward
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United States
10/30/2008 02:10 PM
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Re: Holy crap -- cargo shipping has *collapsed* in a massive way...
finally a post with real verifiable doom.

must be pinned or mods suck shlong!
Anonymous Coward
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Finland
10/30/2008 02:15 PM
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Re: Holy crap -- cargo shipping has *collapsed* in a massive way...
pinworthy!
flatland
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10/30/2008 02:20 PM
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Re: Holy crap -- cargo shipping has *collapsed* in a massive way...
certainly is an alarming statistic
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 342843
United States
10/30/2008 02:35 PM
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Re: Holy crap -- cargo shipping has *collapsed* in a massive way...
Yeah, but how's it compare to the 80s-90s, before "irrational exuberance"? Is it because of a collapse in demand (although I'm sure some is), or because shippers went overboard in better times?
 Quoting: falldown


Well, here's what some guy said on a financial forum:

"What's going on is a credit crunch, LC and LOC [letters of credit] freeze, and a drying up of dry cargo trade. Capesize freighters are getting only $6,365 per day (from $163,563/day one year ago, $235,000 peak) which is their daily COST. They tried slowing down from 11 knots to 8, now they will just park them in the offing and wait.

Total collapse of global trade. Unbelievable.

11750 peak BDI
885 now.

-92.5%"

Anonymous Coward
User ID: 490844
United States
10/30/2008 02:37 PM
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Re: Holy crap -- cargo shipping has *collapsed* in a massive way...
Yeah, but how's it compare to the 80s-90s, before "irrational exuberance"? Is it because of a collapse in demand (although I'm sure some is), or because shippers went overboard in better times?


Well, here's what some guy said on a financial forum:

"What's going on is a credit crunch, LC and LOC [letters of credit] freeze, and a drying up of dry cargo trade. Capesize freighters are getting only $6,365 per day (from $163,563/day one year ago, $235,000 peak) which is their daily COST. They tried slowing down from 11 knots to 8, now they will just park them in the offing and wait.

Total collapse of global trade. Unbelievable.

11750 peak BDI
885 now.

-92.5%"


 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 342843

which marks a BOTTOM.

(the world has not ended).

buy the stocks and get rich. once in a lifetime buy.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 342843
United States
10/30/2008 02:40 PM
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Re: Holy crap -- cargo shipping has *collapsed* in a massive way...
Yeah, but how's it compare to the 80s-90s, before "irrational exuberance"? Is it because of a collapse in demand (although I'm sure some is), or because shippers went overboard in better times?
 Quoting: falldown


Okay, here's a BDI chart going all the way to 1985:

[link to wallstreetpit.com]

We have clearly been in the middle of an "irrational exuberance" period as you put it from about 2003 where shipping spiked through the roof.

Now, it looks we're crashing back to reality.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 342843
United States
10/30/2008 02:42 PM
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Re: Holy crap -- cargo shipping has *collapsed* in a massive way...
which marks a BOTTOM.

(the world has not ended).

buy the stocks and get rich. once in a lifetime buy.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 490844


Ahem...

Beware Bottom Callers
[link to market-ticker.org]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 490844
United States
10/30/2008 02:43 PM
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Re: Holy crap -- cargo shipping has *collapsed* in a massive way...
Yeah, but how's it compare to the 80s-90s, before "irrational exuberance"? Is it because of a collapse in demand (although I'm sure some is), or because shippers went overboard in better times?


Okay, here's a BDI chart going all the way to 1985:

[link to wallstreetpit.com]

We have clearly been in the middle of an "irrational exuberance" period as you put it from about 2003 where shipping spiked through the roof.

Now, it looks we're crashing back to reality.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 342843

whats the bloomberg symbol for that index?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 490844
United States
10/30/2008 02:44 PM
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Re: Holy crap -- cargo shipping has *collapsed* in a massive way...
which marks a BOTTOM.

(the world has not ended).

buy the stocks and get rich. once in a lifetime buy.


Ahem...

Beware Bottom Callers
[link to market-ticker.org]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 342843

oh i don't go all in. but we are close enough that i will bracket it.
Anonymous Coward
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United States
10/30/2008 02:54 PM
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Re: Holy crap -- cargo shipping has *collapsed* in a massive way...
I just threw my wife's entire IRA into NM.

wish me luck!!!
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 485382
United States
10/30/2008 02:56 PM
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Re: Holy crap -- cargo shipping has *collapsed* in a massive way...
Check out this chart of the Baltic Dry Index, which measures shipping activity around the world:

[link to i66.photobucket.com]


It has absolutely plunged from a peak this year (May) of 11,750 down to 885 this month! That's a ginormous drop!

The BDI is considered a good indicator of future economic activity, because much of the material being shipped are raw resources to make things. If those resources aren't shipping, then nobody is making (or selling or buying) anything.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 342843


Yup! I saw the first cargo shipping commercial on TV for anyone to ship anything anywhere! When they have to advertise it is bad..... the end is near!
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 129376
United States
10/30/2008 03:14 PM
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Re: Holy crap -- cargo shipping has *collapsed* in a massive way...
Check out this chart of the Baltic Dry Index, which measures shipping activity around the world:
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 342843

OP, very interesting, thanks for posting.

One thing however, the index is an index of shipping prices, not shipping activity. Obviously there's a direct correlation, but there is a difference.


[link to en.wikipedia.org]
According to Baltic Exchange, the index provides:
“ …an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea. Taking in 26 shipping routes measured on a timecharter and voyage basis, the index covers Supramax, Panamax, and Capesize dry bulk carriers carrying a range of commodities including coal, iron ore and grain. ”
Anonymous Coward
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United States
10/30/2008 03:18 PM
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Re: Holy crap -- cargo shipping has *collapsed* in a massive way...
I forsee a most grave and serious shortage of plastic Christmas tree gee gaws this year.
 Quoting: 19.47™ 534000

fuckin' A, 'bout time...
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 178947
Netherlands
10/30/2008 03:18 PM
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Re: Holy crap -- cargo shipping has *collapsed* in a massive way...
wanna glimpse the future?

Look at argentina.
Isaac Brock died for us

User ID: 535709
Canada
10/30/2008 03:23 PM
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Re: Holy crap -- cargo shipping has *collapsed* in a massive way...
Yeah, but how's it compare to the 80s-90s, before "irrational exuberance"? Is it because of a collapse in demand (although I'm sure some is), or because shippers went overboard in better times?


Well, here's what some guy said on a financial forum:

"What's going on is a credit crunch, LC and LOC [letters of credit] freeze, and a drying up of dry cargo trade. Capesize freighters are getting only $6,365 per day (from $163,563/day one year ago, $235,000 peak) which is their daily COST. They tried slowing down from 11 knots to 8, now they will just park them in the offing and wait.

Total collapse of global trade. Unbelievable.

11750 peak BDI
885 now.

-92.5%"


 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 342843

The credit crunch has really made it difficult to ship things.

Aside from that, there is a fundamental change going on too.

For example boots.
Canadians used to buy "made in Canada" boots which were very high quality. For the last 10 years, most work boots have been made in places like Vietnam. Lately the manufacturers have realised that the cost of shipping leather to Vietnam and then shipping boots back, eats up all the savings on the lower labour costs. Boot manufacturing in Canada is making
a comeback.
There are probably other consumer industries where they are going back to local manufacturing.

Globalisation doesn't always make economic sense.
owner of an extensive collection of curios from the exotic orient
Isaac Brock died for us

User ID: 535709
Canada
10/30/2008 03:23 PM
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Re: Holy crap -- cargo shipping has *collapsed* in a massive way...
Yeah, but how's it compare to the 80s-90s, before "irrational exuberance"? Is it because of a collapse in demand (although I'm sure some is), or because shippers went overboard in better times?


Well, here's what some guy said on a financial forum:

"What's going on is a credit crunch, LC and LOC [letters of credit] freeze, and a drying up of dry cargo trade. Capesize freighters are getting only $6,365 per day (from $163,563/day one year ago, $235,000 peak) which is their daily COST. They tried slowing down from 11 knots to 8, now they will just park them in the offing and wait.

Total collapse of global trade. Unbelievable.

11750 peak BDI
885 now.

-92.5%"


 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 342843

The credit crunch has really made it difficult to ship things.

Aside from that, there is a fundamental change going on too.

For example boots.
Canadians used to buy "made in Canada" boots which were very high quality. For the last 10 years, most work boots have been made in places like Vietnam. Lately the manufacturers have realised that the cost of shipping leather to Vietnam and then shipping boots back, eats up all the savings on the lower labour costs. Boot manufacturing in Canada is making
a comeback.
There are probably other consumer industries where they are going back to local manufacturing.

Globalisation doesn't always make economic sense.
owner of an extensive collection of curios from the exotic orient
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 530622
United States
10/30/2008 03:25 PM
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Re: Holy crap -- cargo shipping has *collapsed* in a massive way...
this is a warning america only has like 4 weeks of food stockpile.

after they shipments stop coming in, we are doomed.

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